Survival of the fittest

[Ring 6]

We have talked forever about how a team is playing in September means very little, that it is what the team grows into by January that matters. "Peaking" at the right time.

The Steelers lost 2 players to injury for the season this week. Players go on IR every week. Other players have hampering injuries that limit their effectiveness.
We lost Brady week 1, and that knocked the Pats down X # of pegs.
The Steelers, for example, came down some pegs as well this week by losing players.
Arguably every time each team plays a game at least one player suffers some type of injury that either sidelines him, or diminshes his play.

Is 'peaking' a matter of deteriorating less than the opposition?
I know we have always considered it getting better. But from the perspective we have been dealt this year, it seems that the best team at the end of the year is the one that is closest to as good as it was in September, i.e. they all get worse due to health, rather than the one that improved the most.

Thoughts?

 

[woolster22]

I'd say it is a mix of both worlds. While many teams certainly seem to deteriorate due to health, many seem to improve upon chemistry and communication as the season progresses. Things like timing, knowing whats going on around you, and getting a feel for things should only improve with time. Do you really think The Evil Brothers are going to be in top form with their receivers during the first reg. season game (remember the oldest didn't get a snap during pre-season)? On the other hand, was Philly as good in their Superbowl loss to the Pats as they were with a healthy TO early in the year? Will the Pats, at any point this season be as good a team as they were in "Brady Portion" of the season(did they really look that impressive with him..2 turn overs...)? I'm no coach or expert but that it would seem to make sense that it is neither, but a little of both.

 

[DarrylS]

Can do the cliche thing all day on this topic, but in reality it is a marathon.. if we look at last year maybe one of the issues is that we peaked too early??? Tough to quantify that one, but in that last game looked like we ran out of gas.

Look at a team like Buffalo, who is playing pretty good football against some pretty weak teams, but how deep would they be if Evans or Edwards went down. This is the fifth week and this whole thing becomes a war of attrition, and for some teams it may depend on the 51st, 52nd or 53rd players and who ready they are to step up..

Anyways peaking is a matter of less deterioration than the other team.. but for our Pats braintrust, have more confidence than most team to make the "adjustments".

 

[PatsFan37]

It's a good question.

Injuries are a mixed bag. If a key guy goes out early, misses half the season, and comes back fairly well recovered, it's not all bad news. He's fresh and his backup got a lot of reps. As long as the team stayed competitive in the race to the playoffs.

Last year's team had few injuries and most of those were season-ending. By the playoffs, a lot of the starters had taken an awful lot of snaps.

It's not solely about health in terms of the injury report, but about wear and tear.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Considering that we just got owned by the Dolphins... there's probably nowhere to go but up. Well unless we lose to SF. I'd like to see the team make incremental improvements over the following weeks. This week's game is pretty big measure even if it is early in the year. I think the bright spot is that the Pats DO have young talent, like Mayo Wheatley, Meriweather, etc. They just need to step up. As far as Cassel's supporting cast, I also think he has enough weapons to work with, but he really needs to improve on what he can do with the offense while also proving that he won't turn the ball over.

 

[maverick4]

It's definitely NOT about who is healthiest compared to September. Our injuries in 03 and 04 proved that.

The added time allows a team to solidify and improve upon mistakes, such that December and January are all about who plays the best mistake free football and who plays best to their system and hides their weaknesses best.

 

[Pats726]

It's definitely NOT about who is healthiest compared to September. Our injuries in 03 and 04 proved that.

The added time allows a team to solidify and improve upon mistakes, such that December and January are all about who plays the best mistake free football and who plays best to their system and hides their weaknesses best.

As for 03/04...there were a lot of injuries..BUT that was a rarity..NOT at all the norm. It's really a mix of many things. Momentum in the playoffs is big..(SEE the Giants of last year...)

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

It's definitely NOT about who is healthiest compared to September. Our injuries in 03 and 04 proved that.

The added time allows a team to solidify and improve upon mistakes, such that December and January are all about who plays the best mistake free football and who plays best to their system and hides their weaknesses best.

I think you just nuked the premise of this thread

 

[DSal]

It's definitely NOT about who is healthiest compared to September. Our injuries in 03 and 04 proved that.

The added time allows a team to solidify and improve upon mistakes, such that December and January are all about who plays the best mistake free football and who plays best to their system and hides their weaknesses best.

While I was reading this thread I was thinking along the same lines. What this team did in 03/04 was remarkable, considering the injuries. Ithink the teams ability to overcome injuries because they have built depth is just as key as conditioning, peaking at the right time,effective coaching, etc. Think about 03/04 - because of the depth, this team had interchangeable players that were so well coached and developed that the team didn't seem to miss a beat.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Is 'peaking' a matter of deteriorating less than the opposition?

Nope.

I know we have always considered it getting better. But from the perspective we have been dealt this year, it seems that the best team at the end of the year is the one that is closest to as good as it was in September, i.e. they all get worse due to health, rather than the one that improved the most.

The glass is half full perspective:

ILB Jerod Mayo - rookie - is he more likely to improve or get worse? I see improvement with experience and coaching transitioning him from talented rookie to talented veteran.

S Brandon Meriweather - 1 year - he improved over the course of his rookie season. Is there any reason to think 'more' playing time, 'more' game experience, will cause him to get worse? I seriously doubt that happens.

OLB Pierre Woods - 3rd year - he has steadily improved, progressing to be the #3 OLB. Again, more experience as a substitute for Vrabes and AD is just going to develop him further. He may never win the starting job, but having a solid reserve has paid dividends for the Pats in previous seasons.

OL Dan Connelly - 3rd year - began his Patriots tenure on the Practice Squad and has graduated to the roster. Classic Scarnecchia Academy for Big Men Dancing graduate - that's a good thing with Hochstein starting to slow and Yates struggling this year.

OLB Shawn Crable - rookie - he might be not be playing now, but that's the norm for a rookie OLB in BB's defense. This is development time with the Strength & Conditioning crew, practices, film study, and coaching, coaching , coaching. BB/SP look to the future as well as anyone in the NFL, if not better.

ILB Gary Guyton - rookie - a UDFA who fought his way to #3 ILB. He's getting a few game reps, he's following the same regimen I outlined for Shawn Crable. It bears repeating: BB/SP look to the future as well as anyone in the NFL, if not better.

OL Mark LeVoir - 2nd year - he came in and beat out Wesley Britt (whom some here were lobbying for to replace Kaczur) for being a game day active. Scar and BB and Brad Seeley must being seeing something to build on here.

DE Le Kevin Smith - 3rd year - he's been gradually building more playing time as a reserve behind Sey, Vince, Ty, Jarvis, and Mike. BB seems to have Mike Wright's replacement (homegrown) ready to go a year early.

TE David Thomas - 3rd year - injuries have slowed his development, but I believe the odds are good he'll be playing better later in the season than he is now.

WR/DB Ray Ventrone - 3rd year - Bubba is still here after being signed as a UDFA, NFLE, time on the Jester's Practice Squad...and now he's on the roster and wearing the badge of a Special Team's Demon. He reminds me of Wes Welker as a WR, he surprised me with his effectiveness as a CB in preseason, and I've always thought he was a decent reserve S. I can't wait to see how he develops as a WR.

CB Terrence Wheatley - rookie - the Gay/Hobbs development timeline says rookie CBs don't see a lot of time before week 8. This trend argues he'll be better later in the season.

CB Jonathon Wilhite - rookie - the Gay/Hobbs development timeline says rookie CBs don't see a lot of time before week 8. This trend argues he'll be better later in the season.

Let's look at the Practice Squad too:
DL Titus Adams - The obligatory DL.
OL Jacob Bender - A Scarnecchia Academy student.
TE Tyson DeVree - He's been cut, resigned, cut, resigned...that isn't a bad thing in NE.
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Is BB looking for the next Kevin Faulk? Seems like.
OLB Vince Redd - He flashed some talent to go with impressive size. He survived the waiver wire and is now on the same developmental program as Crable and Guyton (he's also already earned a black jersey) - It bears repeating: BB/SP look to the future as well as anyone in the NFL, if not better.
CB Mike Richardson - He looked to be a lock to make the roster before injury sidelined his rookie year. He was competitive with Wheatley and Wilhite in preseason. He survived waivers and is still here developing, he could see roster time later in the season.
DB Antwain Spann - Like Bubba, he's been the NFLE and yoyo Practice Squad/roster/shadow roster route. He's still here and looked better then ever when he was moved to S - it's good.
C Ryan Wendell - Pat Hill's Fresno State to the Scarnecchia Academy - hopeful.

This is what I see AJ: nearly a quarter of the roster are young guys working to get better and more likely to be better later in the season then they are now. Factor in the Practice Squad, which has fed the late season roster in seasons past (think Spann preventing the muffed punt recovery in SD to help keep the 2006 team alive), and there is a nice pool of young players who will be playing better as the team makes it's run to the playoffs.

Is 'peaking' a matter of deteriorating less than the opposition?

Nope, it's a matter of developing your young players, managing your older players, and team building. Or, as our vocal minority of anti-Patriot wankers wish they were clever enough to say, "we're dooooooommmmmed!" :woohoo:

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Box is a complete optimist but as a homo, I mean homer, myself I admit I really like the young bodies this team is developing

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Box is a complete optimist but as a homo, I mean homer, myself I admit I really like the young bodies this team is developing

Dr. Freud, ve haf a probable, a probation, a prob..an issue here.

 

[mgteich]

Of course it is important how many contributers you lose. Much more important is the difference is play quality between the contributer and his replacement. This is an issue of whether the backup can step up when called upon.

OFFENSE
For example, we have had this issue at RB and QB for years. This year we have solved the RB issue by having more than adequate depth. A RB injury is not anywhere near as critical as last year. Also, if all are healthy, the RB's will be have a lot fresher legs going into the playoffs. We have enough threads on the QB situation.

At TE, we now have ZERO backups. We have two TE's active who have been injured, and nothing in reserve. Instead we sign up an 8th WR. There must be some grand plan, but it isn't evident.

As far as Dante's is concerned, the OL has fine depth, improving each year, and more help coming at mid-season. The OL is signed for years. O'Callahan and Hochstein have already been tentatively replaced by LeVoir and Connolly. We have an solid 11 man OL (including those on the PUP list). Of course, many on this board disagree.

My BOTTOM LINE on offense is that the Front Office has not been willing to invest in a regular backup since Huard left. They thought that Brady was invincable. And now, here we are. The alternative view is that Cassel was the 2nd best QB in the NCAA and is more than adequate to step in and step up as a backup. Our very experienced QB coach and OC has done this evaluation, and he should know best.
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DEFENSE
In the defensive backfield, we have three safeties. That is enough to absorb one injury. At corner, we will see today whether Wilhite and/or Wheatley is ready to take over Lew Sanders' reps.

Among LB's, we have four starters and Woods. Woods is a major drop-off and after that it is very thin.

On the DL, even though we have fine backups, the drop-off is severe.

My BOTTOM LINE on defense is that I wanted more depth at LB and CB. I also believe that the #1 issue for the defense over the next five years is to extend Wilfork. A pro-bowl NT us the heart of a 3-4 defense. Instead of the experienced backups I think we need, we have Ventrone and Slater.

If you think that Ventrone is critical as a WR, I would suggest that we are fine with Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington and Aiken. If Ventrone is more valuable than Washington, then it is Washington who is at the bottom.
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OVERALL BOTTOM LINE

We have Price, Ventrone and Slater (and Richardson and Spann on the Practice squad)
We need more depth at TE, LB and CB.

The fact is that on a Belichick team, there is a lot of movement in the bottom three roster spots during the season.





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