Roster Evaluation

[RobertWeathers]

I’d choose tons of new wave 80s music over today’s pop music. I would hope that most would agree with us. The quality was far superior. It’s not even close.

I know this much is true.

 

[luuked]

Mason I downgraded because of injury so maybe that's a bit unfair.

Mason was the best run blocking guard in the league before his calf injury. You can't downgrade him but keep Gronk on PB level even though the latter has not shown much this season and has been out at least as long as Mason.

Chung has been outstanding. One of the most consistent players on the roster. Edelman is getting better every game and was one of the few players who played well against the Titans.

To me Chung is maybe the player in the secondary who took the biggest step back relative to 2016 and 2017. And Edelman is having more or less the season so that most people assumed he'd have coming back from an ACL. Mind you I am not trying to say they are playing bad but to give them the same grade as other who are having very strong seasons doesn't mesh with me.

If it wasn't for Brady this team would be 3-7 not 7-3. With all the issues on the OL he's had zero time to throw. Then you add in all the different pieces at the skill position in and out of the offense and it's amazing they've done this well. 4 of Brady's 7 picks were in and out of player's hands.

Look at what Drew Brees has in comparison. His OL is intact and he has several Pro Bowlers on that line. Thomas is the best receiver in the game right now. He has two backs that would be the number one option on better than two-thirds of the teams out there. And then he has a lot of young quick receivers who he's had for a while to work up chemistry with and a couple solid veteran TEs. If you gave Brady, or Rodgers for that matter, those tools they would be having the year Brees is

I don't understand why you get so defensive about Brady. Again I think we can all agree that compared to the last 4 years he had a slower start this year. To give him the highest grade despite all of that doesn't seem right to me.

If the Pats play the Saints in the SB and the Saints stay healthy minus a major win the turnover battle the Pats aren't winning that game. You can't take one thing away from the Saints offense. Brees and Payton will just take what you're giving. Even if you call the defenses a wash the Saints have better talent on offense.

That may all be true but I am not sure how this is connected to a self evaluation of this team or Brady. If Gilmore gets dinked from borderline elite status because of that stinker he had against the Titans why does Brady keep that evaluation despite missing several open players and forcing balls to someone else ?

Overall I think you -- and others here -- are underselling the talent level on this team. Is it the most talented roster in the NFL ? Nope. But there are enough ProBowl level pieces around.

 

[everlong]

Mason was the best run blocking guard in the league before his calf injury. You can't downgrade him but keep Gronk on PB level even though the latter has not shown much this season and has been out at least as long as Mason.

I said I might have unfairly lowered him because of injury but at the same time when healthy Gronk is Elite so I lowered them both one level.

To me Chung is maybe the player in the secondary who took the biggest step back relative to 2016 and 2017. And Edelman is having more or less the season so that most people assumed he'd have coming back from an ACL. Mind you I am not trying to say they are playing bad but to give them the same grade as other who are having very strong seasons doesn't mesh with me.

We can agree to disagree about Chung.

I don't understand why you get so defensive about Brady. Again I think we can all agree that compared to the last 4 years he had a slower start this year. To give him the highest grade despite all of that doesn't seem right to me.

I'm not defensive about Brady. I simply disagree that it's been on him. I was more critical of his performance in 2014 and the way that season started because I felt like he was a bigger part of the problem. Minus a desperation/frustration heave against Detroit I feel he's played pretty well. The Jags gave him a really hard time last year as well and this year it was in Jax. The game against the Titans the line game him zero time, Gordon had his worst game as a Patriot and Vrabel/Pees out Patriot'd the Patriots taking away White. Also the end of 2015 I thought Brady played worse than the start of this year.

That may all be true but I am not sure how this is connected to a self evaluation of this team or Brady. If Gilmore gets dinked from borderline elite status because of that stinker he had against the Titans why does Brady keep that evaluation despite missing several open players and forcing balls to someone else ?

Overall I think you -- and others here -- are underselling the talent level on this team. Is it the most talented roster in the NFL ? Nope. But there are enough ProBowl level pieces around.

Because Gilmore was getting beat time and again in that game on one on one matchups. Brady hit open receivers against the Titans when he had 2 seconds or longer to throw the ball. The problem was those two things rarely happened on the same play. He did miss Hogan coming open on Butler once and forced it to JE11 and that was a clear mistake but I'm sure his internal clock was telling him I've got 2.0 seconds tops not 2.1 at that point in the game.

I think IF everybody is healthy going forward they have enough pieces to get it done. In particular I don't think they can afford to lose the two tackles and Mason. If Brady gets 2 seconds on most plays he'll get it done. I think additionally he needs at least two out of three of Gronk, JE11 and White. Gordon and Michel are the next tier IMO while Burkhead is the insurance policy for a few different spots.

Again though we can agree to disagree. This is the least talented team since 2013. If Wynn had stayed healthy and if they had resigned DA I'd feel different about the offense but they lack depth. The biggest thing about the defense if lack of speed at MLB. I hope Dawson makes an impact. He's a big X-factor.

 

[luuked]

This is the least talented team since 2013. If Wynn had stayed healthy and if they had resigned DA I'd feel different about the offense but they lack depth. The biggest thing about the defense if lack of speed at MLB. I hope Dawson makes an impact. He's a big X-factor.

This is a more talented overall team than last year and arguably 2016. It is a matter of execution and not talent. But I guess you will just disagree with that. Hell if the OL gets healthy and can play like they did before Mason went out, this team is overall also capable to do more than its 2015 iteration.

 

[everlong]

This is a more talented overall team than last year and arguably 2016. It is a matter of execution and not talent. But I guess you will just disagree with that. Hell if the OL gets healthy and can play like they did before Mason went out, this team is overall also capable to do more than its 2015 iteration.

2015 they were great until all of the injuries hit.

2016 vs this year

Branch > any of the DTs
Hightower then > Hightower now (lost a step IMO)
Hogan then > Hogan now
DA > better than all the other 3rd receivers
JE11 > Je11 now
Bennett > Allen (Come on we can agree on this one! )
Sheard/Nik/Jones/Flowers > Flowers/Wise/Clayborn/and whoever
Gronk then > Gronk now (although that Gronk got hurt so if this Gronk can at least play....)

I'll give the RBs and CBs a wash but I do believe if Michel gets healthy and can improve a little in the pass game this could end up being a better unit.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think he’s pretty certain to get 12-13m dollar a year offers, but in this case I don’t think the Pats can just sit back and let him go like they would with most players. He’s a guy that does everything asked of him, and I don’t think we can allow another position to be stripped bare when we need more playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Had they taken a higher round pick DE in the draft this year, I’d be more inclined to agree, but I think some of the reasoning used in letting Cooks and Lewis go was that they saw guys coming down the pipeline (Mason and Flowers) that they wanted to try and keep.

Two guys to keep an eye on are Frank Clark and DeMarcus Lawerance. They will probably be in the same range or slightly exceed Danielle Hunter’s extension from last year. Flowers has no business being in the same conversation as these guys and that’s why I think people will be surprised he may get the Hightower treatment.

Flowers is a nice player, but he’s not a game changer. In today’s passing dominant NFL, it’s virtually impossible that he only has 2.5 sacks with all those “pressures” he apparently has. As I said in an earlier thread, his numbers have dipped each year since he’s become a starter. 7 sacks, 6.5 sacks, now 2.5 sacks which he’s on pace for 4. You can’t expect top dollar with production like that.

 

[PatsFan2]

Two guys to keep an eye on are Frank Clark and DeMarcus Lawerance. They will probably be in the same range or slightly exceed Danielle Hunter’s extension from last year. Flowers has no business being in the same conversation as these guys and that’s why I think people will be surprised he may get the Hightower treatment.

Flowers is a nice player, but he’s not a game changer. In today’s passing dominant NFL, it’s virtually impossible that he only has 2.5 sacks with all those “pressures” he apparently has. As I said in an earlier thread, his numbers have dipped each year since he’s become a starter. 7 sacks, 6.5 sacks, now 2.5 sacks which he’s on pace for 4. You can’t expect top dollar with production like that.

IF Flowers get the Hightower treatment book it he ain't coming back...Hightower had a history of injuries I bet the Steelers are saying phew glad we passed on that guy. Seriously Flowers would have benefited Greatly with a better Edge Rusher imagine if we had a Chandler Jones.

 

[TheRainMaker]

IF Flowers get the Hightower treatment book it he ain't coming back...Hightower had a history of injuries I bet the Steelers are saying phew glad we passed on that guy. Seriously Flowers would have benefited Greatly with a better Edge Rusher imagine if we had a Chandler Jones.

They would’ve made a great combo.

 

[RayClay]

The quality of backup tackles league wide is awful. The only quality backup tackles in the NFL are young top prospects who haven’t quite earned a starting spot, or veterans who
were just displaced by a good young player

Waddle is a pretty mediocre (to be kind) player, but he’s about as good as you can hope for absent a high draft pick.

For example, next year, the Pats could draft an OT high, re-sign Brown and then Cannon becomes a high end one year #3 tackle before being sent packing. That’s really the only scenario in which you’re going to find a demonstrable upgrade to Waddle or whomever is your #3.

Plus, Cannon is not even decent at left tackle.

 

[maineman209]

EDELMAN ...

I expected that Edelman - at age 32 and coming off an lost season from an ACL tear - might max-out in 2018 at something like 90% of his previous production.

Averages, 2013-2016 =
... 58 tgts/38 rec (6 games) ... 6.5 rec/gm ... 10.7 YPC ... 70 yds/gm ... 67.3% catch rate

90% of the above =
... 52 tgts/32 rec (6 games) ... 5.9 rec/gm ... 9.7 YPC .... 63 yds/gm ... 60% catch rate

ACTUAL 2018 =
... 56 tgts/40 rec (6 games) ... 6.7 rec/gm ... 10.7 YPC .... 71 yds/gm ... 71.4% catch rate

In 2013-2016, Edelman averaged 4.4 TDs/12 games. This year, he's currently on pace for 4.0 TDs.

Edelman's production has not only exceeded my expectations, it has met or exceeded his previous averages.

 

[everlong]

IF Flowers get the Hightower treatment book it he ain't coming back...Hightower had a history of injuries I bet the Steelers are saying phew glad we passed on that guy. Seriously Flowers would have benefited Greatly with a better Edge Rusher imagine if we had a Chandler Jones.

People only look at CJ's sack numbers in Arizona. I caught part of their game this past weekend and he got so far upfield so many times opening up running lanes or allowing the QB to step up. If he was doing that in NE he'd get benched and the fans would all be killing him. Flowers is never going to put up those sack numbers but he's a better overall player than Jones and he shows up in big games like Jones didn't. He might not get paid like Jones but I think teams will evaluate him for playing as part of the Patriot's scheme as a positive.

Additionally with NE-centric front offices in Tenn, Houston, Detroit and Atlanta I think at least one of them would make a play for him.

 

[maineman209]

GRONK ...

In 2017, in spite of missing two games and not being targeted at all in the regular season finale, Gronk placed in the TOP TEN in the NFL in every statistical receiving category. He also ended as the Pats 2017 leader in receiving yards, yards/game and receiving TDs.

In 2018, in spite of being hampered by ankle and back issues, his per-game receiving production has been 90%-95% of what it was in 2017 (aside from TDs).

 

[Deus Irae]

C David Andrews
RG Shaq Mason
LG Joe Thuney
LT Trent Brown
RT Marcus Cannon
TE Rob Gronkowski
RB James White
RB Sony Michel
RB Rex Burkhead
FB James Develin
WR/RB Cordelle Patterson
WR JE11
WR Josh Gordon
WR Chris Hogan
WR Phillip Dorsette
QB Tom Brady

My takes (this is all about where the players are to date, often made with the understanding that there's fluidity in the analysis) not a claim of permanence for every single player) for the offense. I've left off some of the backups:

• Andrews is a matchup and effort player who often struggles against size and power. He's a poor man's Koppen.
• Mason is the team's best interior lineman, and is a high level NFL guard. He's got to stay healthy, though
  
• Thuney is someone who's often been the team's weakest OL, but he may be turning that around a bit.
• Brown is about what we expected. His size makes him formidable, but speed can give him a problem.
• Cannon is a quality RT when healthy. Unfortunately, the 'when healthy' part is a real problem.
• Waddle's been awful. He's going to get Brady killed if he keeps playing at this level.
  
• Gronk is a bit of an unknown at this point. How much of his apparent decline is due to temporary injury is the critical question.
• Allen has been a good blocker, and pretty much a disaster as a receiver.
• Hollister has become this year's version of H.G. Wells' Griffin.
  
• James White continues to be James White. He's a very effective 3dRB who you don't want toting the rock beyond a bare minimum number of times.
• Michel, to date, has been what we all feared. He's been a less than inspiring first round RB pick who can't stay healthy.
• Burkhead flashes quality play, then heads to the injury list. He's not useless, but he's completely unreliable. Unfortunately, the Bengals seem to have been right about him, at least in that sense.
  
• Develin is Develin. If you want blocking, he's your man. If you want anything else, you'd best make it a surprise, and a low level priority.
• Patterson is who most of us thought he was. He's a gimmick player who is best used as the WR5 in general, but with a specific package of plays that gets him involved as a higher slotted player.
• JE11 is a guy coming off of ACL surgery and is well into his recovery but not yet at 100%, and he looks it.
• Gordon is a high level talent who's missed a lot of time and came over late in the game, and he looks it. He needs to work on his hands, as he's missing out on too many catchable passes.
• Hogan has not had the success most of us had hoped and expected, and the question is how much of that is on Hogan, and how much is external to his game. It seems that he's not getting the separation he'd gotten prior to this season, but there have also been times when he's been open but not targeted.
• Dorsett is the biggest of mysteries to me. He gets open. He catches the ball. He's not getting the snaps or targets that would seem to be warranted. What's the reason for that, though, is the question.
• Brady is still Brady, though he hasn't been MVP level. Most of that seems to be due to external factors, but he has not overcome that in quite his usual fashion.

 

[everlong]

My takes (this is all about where the players are to date, often made with the understanding that there's fluidity in the analysis) not a claim of permanence for every single player) for the offense. I've left off some of the backups:

• Andrews is a matchup and effort player who often struggles against size and power. He's a poor man's Koppen.
• Mason is the team's best interior lineman, and is a high level NFL guard. He's got to stay healthy, though
  
• Thuney is someone who's often been the team's weakest OL, but he may be turning that around a bit.
• Brown is about what we expected. His size makes him formidable, but speed can give him a problem.
• Cannon is a quality RT when healthy. Unfortunately, the 'when healthy' part is a real problem.
• Waddle's been awful. He's going to get Brady killed if he keeps playing at this level.
  
• Gronk is a bit of an unknown at this point. How much of his apparent decline is due to temporary injury is the critical question.
• Allen has been a good blocker, and pretty much a disaster as a receiver.
• Hollister has become this year's version of H.G. Wells' Griffin.
  
• James White continues to be James White. He's a very effective 3dRB who you don't want toting the rock beyond a bare minimum number of times.
• Michel, to date, has been what we all feared. He's been a less than inspiring first round RB pick who can't stay healthy.
• Burkhead flashes quality play, then heads to the injury list. He's not useless, but he's completely unreliable. Unfortunately, the Bengals seem to have been right about him, at least in that sense.
  
• Develin is Develin. If you want blocking, he's your man. If you want anything else, you'd best make it a surprise, and a low level priority.
• Patterson is who most of us thought he was. He's a gimmick player who is best used as the WR5 in general, but with a specific package of plays that gets him involved as a higher slotted player.
• JE11 is a guy coming off of ACL surgery and is well into his recovery but not yet at 100%, and he looks it.
• Gordon is a high level talent who's missed a lot of time and came over late in the game, and he looks it. He needs to work on his hands, as he's missing out on too many catchable passes.
• Hogan has not had the success most of us had hoped and expected, and the question is how much of that is on Hogan, and how much is external to his game. It seems that he's not getting the separation he'd gotten prior to this season, but there have also been times when he's been open but not targeted.
• Dorsett is the biggest of mysteries to me. He gets open. He catches the ball. He's not getting the snaps or targets that would seem to be warranted. What's the reason for that, though, is the question.
• Brady is still Brady, though he hasn't been MVP level. Most of that seems to be due to external factors, but he has not overcome that in quite his usual fashion.

Fair assessments that I agree with to a high degree. The 'when healthy' factor you describe is exactly why you have to knock players down a peg. Cannon the perfect example had become a 2nd team all pro player for two years straight. But playing 7 games last year and 7 (although he's left a few early not to return) so far this year he's not at the same level.

 

[everlong]

GRONK ...

In 2017, in spite of missing two games and not being targeted at all in the regular season finale, Gronk placed in the TOP TEN in the NFL in every statistical receiving category. He also ended as the Pats 2017 leader in receiving yards, yards/game and receiving TDs.

In 2018, in spite of being hampered by ankle and back issues, his per-game receiving production has been 90%-95% of what it was in 2017 (aside from TDs).

The Red Zone is what makes Gronk, Gronk. Because of the ankle/back/wear&tear he's not getting separation in general and especially when space gets tight. Gronk has always been amazing at making catches with defenders all over him. I think this year the percentage of catches where that's true seems, and I stress seems because I have zero data to backup my perception, much higher than past seasons.

 

[Deus Irae]

Trey Flowers
Deatrich Wise
Lawrence Guy
Danny Shelton
Malcom Brown
Adian Clayborn
Derek Rivers
Dont'a Hightower
Nicholas Grigsby
Elandon Roberts
Kyle Van Noy
Stephon Gilmore
Jonathan Jones
Jason McCourty
J.C. Jackson
Patrick Chung
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Stephen Gostkowski
Ryan Allen

My takes (this is all about where the players are to date, often made with the understanding that there's fluidity in the analysis, not a claim of permanence for every single player) for the defense and special teams. I've left off some of the backups, and most of the ST only guys, who've been a collective disappointment:

• Trey Flowers is arguably the best defender on the team. He's both an effort and a skill player, and he's the focal player on the line.
• Deatrich Wise has been a disappointment in year two. The hope is that he bounces back, but it's possible that we've already seen him at his best.
• Lawrence Guy is a solid player who goes largely unnoticed. If Brown and Shelton were playing well, he'd be far less important, but their disappointing play has made his health and level of play critical.
• Danny Shelton has been a Dolly Parton level bust. He can't move laterally and, oddly given his size, often struggles to hold the point of attack.
• Malcom Brown has continued to be Malcom Brown. He's a disappointing player who's not bad enough to label a bust. He's not what the team needs on the line, though.
• Adrian Clayborn has been another major disappointment. But the disappointment here isn't really that he's declined. It's that he's basically been the same player he's always been.
• Derek Rivers is a second year player coming off of a lost season. He's not really shown much to make me think he'll be much help this year, or a part of the team's long term plans.
• Dont'a Hightower looks like a shadow of himself. He's slow and has lost his explosion. There are still a lot of games remaining, so hope remains that he'll trend closer to the old Hightower.
• Elandon Roberts is Elandon Roberts, and that's not a good NFL linebacker.
• Kyle Van Noy has shown real improvement this year. He's still overslotted in this linebacker corps, but he's played like a legitimate LB3 level player rather than an LB4-LB5 kind of guy.
• Stephon Gilmore has been a lot more up than down. He's been the team's best, or second best, defensive player. But he's still prone to what seems like bad concentration games, and they can't afford any more of those this season, because the defense is designed around him with the expectation that he'll be playing at a very high level.
• Jonathan Jones has not recovered and developed in the way I'd hoped. Perhaps more time will be the answer, but he's taken a step back.
• Jason McCourty has been a mostly adequate starting corner, though he's had some disastrous moments.
• J.C. Jackson really needs to improve, or he's going to be unemployed.
• Patrick Chung seems to have lost something in his game, but part of that could be the general decline in the back 7.
• Devin McCourty definitely looks off when the team puts him down low and in man coverage. He still looks good when he's setting up deep and reading what's in front of him, though he's not been up to his usual standards there.
• Duron Harmon is Duron Harmon, which is a good backup/S3 who's overpaid and who's probably being used more than he should be because the team doesn't have a second safety who can press into the front 7.
• Stephen Gostkowski remains a top player at his position, but it seems to me that his kickoffs have been less consistently accurate with regards to placement this season.
• Ryan Allen - I haven't really focused on him much this year. My general sense is that he's not been as good as he's needed to be on too many occasions, but that could just be bad memory.

 

[Deus Irae]

Dorsett is the biggest of mysteries to me. He gets open. He catches the ball. He's not getting the snaps or targets that would seem to be warranted. What's the reason for that, though, is the question.

Just as an FYI, I'll note that Bedard (for better or worse) is on the same page as I am on this.

 

[supafly]

Just as an FYI, I'll note that Bedard (for better or worse) is on the same page as I am on this.

Add Ryan Hannable to the list.

Hannable: Where in the world is Phillip Dorsett?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

My takes (this is all about where the players are to date, often made with the understanding that there's fluidity in the analysis) not a claim of permanence for every single player) for the offense. I've left off some of the backups:

• Andrews is a matchup and effort player who often struggles against size and power. He's a poor man's Koppen.
• Mason is the team's best interior lineman, and is a high level NFL guard. He's got to stay healthy, though
  
• Thuney is someone who's often been the team's weakest OL, but he may be turning that around a bit.
• Brown is about what we expected. His size makes him formidable, but speed can give him a problem.
• Cannon is a quality RT when healthy. Unfortunately, the 'when healthy' part is a real problem.
• Waddle's been awful. He's going to get Brady killed if he keeps playing at this level.
  
• Gronk is a bit of an unknown at this point. How much of his apparent decline is due to temporary injury is the critical question.
• Allen has been a good blocker, and pretty much a disaster as a receiver.
• Hollister has become this year's version of H.G. Wells' Griffin.
  
• James White continues to be James White. He's a very effective 3dRB who you don't want toting the rock beyond a bare minimum number of times.
• Michel, to date, has been what we all feared. He's been a less than inspiring first round RB pick who can't stay healthy.
• Burkhead flashes quality play, then heads to the injury list. He's not useless, but he's completely unreliable. Unfortunately, the Bengals seem to have been right about him, at least in that sense.
  
• Develin is Develin. If you want blocking, he's your man. If you want anything else, you'd best make it a surprise, and a low level priority.
• Patterson is who most of us thought he was. He's a gimmick player who is best used as the WR5 in general, but with a specific package of plays that gets him involved as a higher slotted player.
• JE11 is a guy coming off of ACL surgery and is well into his recovery but not yet at 100%, and he looks it.
• Gordon is a high level talent who's missed a lot of time and came over late in the game, and he looks it. He needs to work on his hands, as he's missing out on too many catchable passes.
• Hogan has not had the success most of us had hoped and expected, and the question is how much of that is on Hogan, and how much is external to his game. It seems that he's not getting the separation he'd gotten prior to this season, but there have also been times when he's been open but not targeted.
• Dorsett is the biggest of mysteries to me. He gets open. He catches the ball. He's not getting the snaps or targets that would seem to be warranted. What's the reason for that, though, is the question.
• Brady is still Brady, though he hasn't been MVP level. Most of that seems to be due to external factors, but he has not overcome that in quite his usual fashion.

When Mason is healthy he's our best OL'm but you're too low on Thuney. Hes been the 2nd best & arguably the most consistent OL'm this year.

I'd love to see Gronk regain some of his old self but I don't think we can depend on it. Theres been a lot of good ones to enter over the last few years & looks like another good class. Hopefully we can target 1 or 2 this year.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Offensive line.

Andrews, thuney and mason are solid. Karras is not a great back up and should be upgraded via free agency.

Cannon is solid when healthy. The problem is, he is a banana that is incapable of playing 16 games. Therefore, we need a capable back up and waddle is not that guy.
I propose drafting Hyatt of Clemson in the third round as the new swing tackle.

Brown is a free agent and if solder got 15 million a year, Brown should get at least 10 million. Brown is not worth 10 plus million a year. Let him go and take the comp pick. Wynn is a future all pro at left tackle if healthy next year.