Rewatch Thread: Philly @ NE (Preseason #2)

[PP2]

I would be shocked if Patterson could give us anything consistent deep (or even in the midrange game). As a decoy ? Sure. But as an actual receiving option I just don't see it. There is nothing in his tape of previous years (or this preseason) to suggest that he can be consistent there.

But hey I would be happy to be absolutely wrong about this.

What I would be happy with is for the defense to be forced to account for him. That would open up the field more.

 

[maineman209]

It's stating the obvious but a better pass rush will make the DBs job easier.....

And a more reliable run-D makes the pass-rushers' jobs easier. Defeating the RPO - or any play-action technique - by containing the run with minimum personnel, allows for more rush.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

And a more reliable run-D makes the pass-rushers' jobs easier. Defeating the RPO - or any play-action technique - by containing the run with minimum personnel, allows for more rush.

Nerd alert.
On a quiet Sunday morning, I decided to research rushing yards allowed per carry. The sample size is large enough to give some evidence of how well a team defenses the run and one long one won't alter the stats. For instance last year the Pats allowed 4.7 ypc over 380 carries with a long allowed of 87 yards. Take that out and it is still 4.5 ypc.
The 4.7 ypc was tied for the worst of the BB era with 2002. That was the year when early on Kansas City ran all over the Patriots in a high scoring game and while NE won, it gave a blueprint for how to defeat the Patriots and it resulted in a 9-7 non playoff season, the only one of the Brady non -injury era. The problem was fixed and the next year the defense allowed 3.6 ypc and they hoisted the Lombardi. Hopefully this year it is the same result...

YEAR DEFENSE rushing yards per carry allowed
2000----3.7
2001----4.3 **
2002----4.7
2003----3.6 **
2004----3.9 **
2005----3.6
2006----3.9
2007----4.4
2008----4.1
2009----4.4
2010----4.2
2011----4.6
2012----3.9
2013----4.5
2014----4.0 **
2015----4.0
2016----3.9 **
2017----4.7

** SB champs

 

[luuked]

What I would be happy with is for the defense to be forced to account for him. That would open up the field more.

Yep. That would be the dream. Like we said a few times if we can get "some" receptions on tape this would open up even more things to do with him presnap. Add in a route below Gronks seam route that @AndyJohnson mentioned or the old Welker route and he would become a serious chess piece without needing to be an elite "receiver".

Ultimately the success or failure of Patterson will not depend on his catch rate or yardage but rather how much additional value McD and O'Shea can squeeze out of him in addition to what he already brings with him to open up things for others.

 

[Ring 6]

Yep. That would be the dream. Like we said a few times if we can get "some" receptions on tape this would open up even more things to do with him presnap. Add in a route below Gronks seam route that @AndyJohnson mentioned or the old Welker route and he would become a serious chess piece without needing to be an elite "receiver".

Ultimately the success or failure of Patterson will not depend on his catch rate or yardage but rather how much additional value McD and O'Shea can squeeze out of him in addition to what he already brings with him to open up things for others.

It’s more likely that Patterson’s role is to pick up the scraps available because of defenses focusing on gronk, Edelman, and being aware of white than that he will open things up for others by the defense focusing on him.

 

[luuked]

Nerd alert.
On a quiet Sunday morning, I decided to research rushing yards allowed per carry. The sample size is large enough to give some evidence of how well a team defenses the run and one long one won't alter the stats. For instance last year the Pats allowed 4.7 ypc over 380 carries with a long allowed of 87 yards. Take that out and it is still 4.5 ypc.
The 4.7 ypc was tied for the worst of the BB era with 2002. That was the year when early on Kansas City ran all over the Patriots in a high scoring game and while NE won, it gave a blueprint for how to defeat the Patriots and it resulted in a 9-7 non playoff season, the only one of the Brady non -injury era. The problem was fixed and the next year the defense allowed 3.6 ypc and they hoisted the Lombardi. Hopefully this year it is the same result...

YEAR DEFENSE rushing yards per carry allowed
2000----3.7
2001----4.3 **
2002----4.7
2003----3.6 **
2004----3.9 **
2005----3.6
2006----3.9
2007----4.4
2008----4.1
2009----4.4
2010----4.2
2011----4.6
2012----3.9
2013----4.5
2014----4.0 **
2015----4.0
2016----3.9 **
2017----4.7

** SB champs

And this was what ultimately killed us last year. We had to scheme to stop the run (and even then failed at times) which simplified everything for Foles. Add in 2016 Branch and suddenly the pass rush might arrive half a second earlier or there might be an additional body clogging space for crosser.

Whatever 2018.

 

[luuked]

It’s more likely that Patterson’s role is to pick up the scraps available because of defenses focusing on gronk, Edelman, and being aware of white than that he will open things up for others by the defense focusing on him.

I dont think it will be a oneway street.

Btw. I might have missed it but did u get around to check out Keionta? Mike Dussault from Patspropaganda is not particularly impressed and doesnt understand the media frenzy. Curious if you saw something of value.

 

[Ring 6]

I dont think it will be a oneway street.

Btw. I might have missed it but did u get around to check out Keionta? Mike Dussault from Patspropaganda is not particularly impressed and doesnt understand the media frenzy. Curious if you saw something of value.

Haven’t gotten there yet.

 

[long distance]

I dont think it will be a oneway street.

Btw. I might have missed it but did u get around to check out Keionta? Mike Dussault from Patspropaganda is not particularly impressed and doesnt understand the media frenzy. Curious if you saw something of value.

I loved they brought and kept Keionta. He is PTP DE. But one has to be realistic: at this point he looks at least a step behind Flowers, Clayborn, Wise and Rivers so if all stay healthy its hard to see him breaking the rotation.

a few Keionta notes this preseason:

> as i posted in early TC daily threads (thanks to great 1hour videos of our board member) they started to use Keionta early in rotation with starters (at that time Wise and Rivers were paired with 2nd unit). A clear sign how much they like him.

> they played him a lot on Thursday both as DE and later as interior rusher in sub packages (mirroring T.Flowers usage). A sign they want to find him a role and keep him since he doesn't play ST.

> he doesn't have the burst, quickness, rush, moves at the moment of the top 4 imo . so i can understand Dussault . but he has great contain and motor and of course ideal BB size.

Seeing him playing on interior in sub packages and A.Butler plenty of run DT on 1st and 2nd downs i wonder if there might be competition between the 2 of them for #8 DL spot or they take both with 9DL. Valentine seems like a long shot at the moment. Unfortunately there is almost no chance you can keep any of them on PS..

 

[long distance]

add.

a note to keep in mind:
Of all three young DEs playing with 1st unit Keionta is the closest to T.Flowers mold/playing mode..

___
btw - Lee and Harris are flashing as situational rushers as well . and most of all . Grissom looks his best both at DE and ST. He is playing against lower competition but in my eyes after years of stagnation he managed to make some kind of improvement. So he is another piece in the backup DE puzzle that is ironically loaded at the moment..

 

[1960Pats]

Nerd alert.
On a quiet Sunday morning, I decided to research rushing yards allowed per carry. The sample size is large enough to give some evidence of how well a team defenses the run and one long one won't alter the stats. For instance last year the Pats allowed 4.7 ypc over 380 carries with a long allowed of 87 yards. Take that out and it is still 4.5 ypc.
The 4.7 ypc was tied for the worst of the BB era with 2002. That was the year when early on Kansas City ran all over the Patriots in a high scoring game and while NE won, it gave a blueprint for how to defeat the Patriots and it resulted in a 9-7 non playoff season, the only one of the Brady non -injury era. The problem was fixed and the next year the defense allowed 3.6 ypc and they hoisted the Lombardi. Hopefully this year it is the same result...

YEAR DEFENSE rushing yards per carry allowed
2000----3.7
2001----4.3 **
2002----4.7
2003----3.6 **
2004----3.9 **
2005----3.6
2006----3.9
2007----4.4
2008----4.1
2009----4.4
2010----4.2
2011----4.6
2012----3.9
2013----4.5
2014----4.0 **
2015----4.0
2016----3.9 **
2017----4.7

** SB champs

It's funny that you mentioned that KC game. I remember the ending very well. KC scored at the end of regulation and got within 1 point with the extra point coming. I remember being a nervous wreck because I thought that KC, considering that they were running through the Pats like a warm knife through soft butter, might go for two and win the game. They took the tie instead, lost the coin toss and the Pats won in OT.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

It's funny that you mentioned that KC game. I remember the ending very well. KC scored at the end of regulation and got within 1 point with the extra point coming. I remember being a nervous wreck because I thought that KC, considering that they were running through the Pats like a warm knife through soft butter, might go for two and win the game. They took the tie instead, lost the coin toss and the Pats won in OT.

That game

*Brady threw for 410 yds 4 TD/ 1 int
*Troy Brown set Pats all time record for receptions in a game with 16 ( 21 targets) 8th all time in the league, tied by W Welker later....
*Pats went for a 2 pt conversion in first quarter of the game ( unsuccessful)
*Kc rushed for 6.5 ypc
* Priest Holmes and Dante Hall each had almost 200 yards .....
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots - September 22nd, 2002 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[patfanken]

The thing about Dorsett is that he had almost identical measureables to Cooks ... same hgt, wgt, same 4.33/40, slightly better 3-cone. We haven't seen him used as a Cooks-like deep threat - yet. But then, the Pats offense doesn't appear to have schemed to get him into that position - yet.

It's PRESEASON. We have no idea how players are going to be used over the course of the regular season, yet it seems so many are making definitive judgments about players based on these 2 PRESEASON games.

Case in point. I keep this example in mind every time I tend to get concerned about what I see or don't see in a PRESEASON game. In 20o3, the Pats played the Bengals in the "all important" 3rd preseason game. By the end of the first half, the score was 30-0. I consider the 2003 team to be the best of the BB era simply because they closed the deal and had to beat TEN teams that had won 10 games (including the playoffs) that season.

I often wonder why that stat isn't remembered more. It me it was an AWESOME accomplishment that I doubt has ever been done by any other team or even if there was a team that came close. To put it into prospective, the Dolphins "undefeated team" managed to beat only ONE team that had won 10 games.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That game

*Brady threw for 410 yds 4 TD/ 1 int
*Troy Brown set Pats all time record for receptions in a game with 16 ( 21 targets) 8th all time in the league, tied by W Welker later....
*Pats went for a 2 pt conversion in first quarter of the game ( unsuccessful)
*Kc rushed for 6.5 ypc
* Priest Holmes and Dante Hall each had almost 200 yards .....
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots - September 22nd, 2002 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

I remember Troy suffered a knee injury that game. He gutted out the rest of the game and season but was not the same player

 

[luuked]

add.

a note to keep in mind:
Of all three young DEs playing with 1st unit Keionta is the closest to T.Flowers mold/playing mode..

___
btw - Lee and Harris are flashing as situational rushers as well . and most of all . Grissom looks his best both at DE and ST. He is playing against lower competition but in my eyes after years of stagnation he managed to make some kind of improvement. So he is another piece in the backup DE puzzle that is ironically loaded at the moment..

The Davis situation seems to be tricky in terms of roster management. It seems more and more like the consensus of some of the tape watchers (Dussault, ELazar..) is that he really didn't play that well but it will be difficult to smuggle him through waivers because he is a very intriguing prospect that might just need more development.

On paper Grissom and is the better player right now and has ST value. But long term Davis might be more valuable.

No idea..

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

The Davis situation seems to be tricky in terms of roster management. It seems more and more like the consensus of some of the tape watchers (Dussault, ELazar..) is that he really didn't play that well but it will be difficult to smuggle him through waivers because he is a very intriguing prospect that might just need more development.

On paper Grissom and is the better player right now and has ST value. But long term Davis might be more valuable.

No idea..

Release him and he will get picked up immediately. The guy’s 270 with long arms and runs a 4.7. You can work on his other aspects of his game but he can rush the passer.

 

[luuked]

Release him and he will get picked up immediately. The guy’s 270 with long arms and runs a 4.7. You can work on his other aspects of his game but he can rush the passer.

Like I said he is an intriguing prospect but doesn't look ready. It is one of those annual roster management headaches where you might have to sacrifice depth somewhere to keep a developmental player who likely will not contribute significantly.

 

[long distance]

The Davis situation seems to be tricky in terms of roster management. It seems more and more like the consensus of some of the tape watchers (Dussault, ELazar..) is that he really didn't play that well but it will be difficult to smuggle him through waivers because he is a very intriguing prospect that might just need more development.

On paper Grissom and is the better player right now and has ST value. But long term Davis might be more valuable.

No idea..

last year headache for no DEs . this year for plenty . i wonder how we survive

1. Lets assume T.Flowers' inj. is nothing and he will be there practicing and playing next week . or at least certainly by week 1

2. T.Flowers is in a contract year. OTC expects his contract going north of 10M apy but could stay below 12M since he is not considered elite rusher. Strong rotation and Patriots DL philosophy could keep the price further down. Ironically his versatility and team first mentality could cost him some stats and some money as well.

3. T.Flowers' trade value is on its highest. With a strong first part of the season it could peak around trade deadline. I believe it would exceed significantly the 3-4 rd comp pick if they let him go in FA esp. since thats 2020.

No doubt Pats love Flowers but are they paying him 10M+ with Clayborn, Wise, Rivers and Davis on the roster (with Grissom as improving backup option)? Im not sure, 50/50 i feel.

Then again he is as Pat type DE as they come, great player & mentor entering his prime . plus Clayborn and Davis are signed only through 2019.

Roster building wise you can go thin with WRs initially (3-4 not counting Slater), one less OL (8) with Wynn out and after cutdowns to 53 with one less LB putting Langi on IR-R and have space for both Davis and Grissom. But carrying some young CBs who won't survive waivers would also make sense.

I wonder if they put Davis on some ST teams next week. That could be bad news for Grissom..

 

[luuked]

last year headache for no DEs . this year for plenty . i wonder how we survive

1. Lets assume T.Flowers' inj. is nothing and he will be there practicing and playing next week . or at least certainly by week 1

2. T.Flowers is in a contract year. OTC expects his contract going north of 10M apy but could stay below 12M since he is not considered elite rusher. Strong rotation and Patriots DL philosophy could keep the price further down. Ironically his versatility and team first mentality could cost him some stats and some money as well.

3. T.Flowers' trade value is on its highest. With a strong first part of the season it could peak around trade deadline. I believe it would exceed significantly the 3-4 rd comp pick if they let him go in FA esp. since thats 2020.

No doubt Pats love Flowers but are they paying him 10M+ with Clayborn, Wise, Rivers and Davis on the roster (with Grissom as improving backup option)? Im not sure, 50/50 i feel.

Then again he is as Pat type DE as they come, great player & mentor entering his prime . plus Clayborn and Davis are signed only through 2019.

Roster building wise you can go thin with WRs initially (3-4 not counting Slater), one less OL (8) with Wynn out and after cutdowns to 53 with one less LB putting Langi on IR-R and have space for both Davis and Grissom. But carrying some young CBs who won't survive waivers would also make sense.

I wonder if they put Davis on some ST teams next week. That could be bad news for Grissom..

The thing is we are doing this now for one player. But I am sure the individual position coaches each have a player that they feel strongly about. Especially among the DBs or Joe Judge with ST candidates. This entire balancing act of developmental guys vs. guys that help you right now is pretty difficult.

Then you decide on someone, others who are promising get cut and go on to other teams and some even build on their potential (eg. Grugier-Hill or Daryl Roberts) and you end up looking like an idiot anyway.

 

[PP2]

It's PRESEASON. We have no idea how players are going to be used over the course of the regular season, yet it seems so many are making definitive judgments about players based on these 2 PRESEASON games.

Case in point. I keep this example in mind every time I tend to get concerned about what I see or don't see in a PRESEASON game. In 20o3, the Pats played the Bengals in the "all important" 3rd preseason game. By the end of the first half, the score was 30-0. I consider the 2003 team to be the best of the BB era simply because they closed the deal and had to beat TEN teams that had won 10 games (including the playoffs) that season.

I often wonder why that stat isn't remembered more. It me it was an AWESOME accomplishment that I doubt has ever been done by any other team or even if there was a team that came close. To put it into prospective, the Dolphins "undefeated team" managed to beat only ONE team that had won 10 games.

Ken,

Not to nitpick, but the Bengals whooping actually happened in the preseason of '04.