Player Signing Report: Patriots Acquire DeVante Parker from Dolphins

[SHOWTIME15]

The Pats now have a collection of 3 - 1st round WRs from the 2015 draft.

Round 1
3rd WR - D. Parker pick # 15
4th WR - N. Agahlor pick # 20
6th WR - P. Dorsett pick # 29
Round 3
10th WR - K. Lockett pick # 69
14th WR - T. Montgomery # 94th
Round 5
20th WR -S. Diggs pick # 146
6th round
29th WR - D. Waller pick # 204

Montgomery wasn’t taken in the 1st round, per your list

 

[Jim Beankie]

Bringing up Jamar's separation also highlights the QB issue: Burrow had impeccable timing, ball placement, and aggressiveness on those jump balls to Chase.

Mac had plays last year where he was quick to check it down when guys were open downfield.

Hopefully he'll improve in that, because that's key for utilizing receivers like Parker.

Even though Ja'marr was a rookie, I believe he already had 2 years of playing with Burrow at LSU for familiarity. That kind of time together (and time for a WR to be in a system as well - like Kupp despite the new QB Stafford) is invaluable for SB winners, I'm noticing.

 

[Betterthanmost]

So every thing that happened last night was probably real? If this thread still exist then the rest of the night also happened. Hmmm.....

 

[Jim Beankie]

Have you ever looked at Julian Edelman's separation stats? I don't think Edelman ever had 2 yards average separation in his career. That is what we need to look at. Parker is a different receiver than Edelman, but Parker will be used far closer to him than some of the receivers with great separation stats. Parker is not a deep threat WR and is more of possession WR and possession WRs don't have great separation stats because they shorter routes where there isn't enough time to get a lot of separation.

People get way too hung up on things like #1 WR and separation. The Pats' offense doesn't typically have nor need a traditional #1 WR. And you can be open without separation. And if you have one yard of separation on a quick slant, that is the equivalent of have 2-3 yards of separation on a deep pass.

I am not expecting Parker to be a 1,200 yard receiver this year, but people are judging this guy based on what they want for this offense and not what he is and how the Patriots are likely to use him. Having a #1 difference making WR is awesome to have, but the Pats' offense is built to thrive with quantity of good #2 and #3 WRs without a true #1.

This and other teams have thrived with a possession receiver as their "#1 WR". Edelman. Troy Brown. The Ravens did it with Anquan Boldin. And you also had Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, and Jordy Nelson. None of these guys were blazers down the field with great separation. I'm not putting Parker in the same league as these guys, but he can be effective without a lot separation like these guys were.

I agree with your overall premise, but fyi, Edelman got decent separation. I've previously argued that Patriots SB winning years didn't have a true WR#1. Edelman after 4 years (going into his FA year) was considered by this board to be a consensus WR #4 and maybe #3. I think there was someone who thought he had potential to be an elite WR#2 and the person was mocked ruthlessly.

Eligible years for Edelman (NextGenStats)
2.8 2019
3.3 2018
2.7 2016

The fact that there were 2 years of 1.7yds of separation for Parker is glaring to me. It may also show a lot of trust for the QB. We'll see how it all plays out. In Troy I trust.

 

[jdlboot14]

I'm not mad at this Parker add. It's a fairly low $ contract. They're clearly trying to improve this WR roster. The only issues though, is that he is getting up in years for never being a super fast guy, and he's had a lot of hamstring injuries - which will almost certainly hinder him this season. He's exactly in the Agholor bucket - a decent vet who could be productive, but won't change the season for us. Still, I feel okay about the group of 4 #2 receivers we have. And at least this move suggests Harry is finally gone. UNLESS, they really try to change him to a H-back or something.

 

[TomPatriot]

Jerry Rice 4.71
Wes Welker 4.65
Anquan Boldin 4.71
Michael Irvin 4.52
Deandre Hopkins 4.57
Devante Adams 4.56
Cooper Kupp 4.61

Speed never hurts but it isnt everything when it comes to separation. You just have to find or luck into it which is a hard thing to do.

Devante Parker 4.46

 

[Ivan]

i predict a breakout season for bourne and agholor. meyers could become like clutch amendola/ prime time hogan , the key 3rd down guy. no big numbers but pretty effective. Meyers would no longer be WR 1 this year.

as a sum of parts, i get a feeling this offense would be pretty good. Jonnu is attending optional OTAs . so we should see some progressions from him. if we get 500-600 yards and 5-6 TDs from parker thats money well spent.

I hate to say it because I really like the guy but Meyers is best suited as a WR4. He’s got good hands, and he can find holes in a defense, but he’s no threat at all to score. And with the addition of Parker Meyers actually is WR4, and that’s why no deal has been reached with him, they don’t value him as a top 3 WR. I won’t be surprised if they lift the tag on him after the draft,

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Would he be considered a true number one?

Yea Parker is a true #1, he's not an elite hall of famer or anything but hes a legitimate #1 that has been productive for a long time.. He absolutely schooled Stephon Gilmore the year he won DPOY

 

[Betterthanmost]

He also abused JC Jackson as well. We had no answers for him.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Jerry Rice 4.71
Wes Welker 4.65
Anquan Boldin 4.71
Michael Irvin 4.52
Deandre Hopkins 4.57
Devante Adams 4.56
Cooper Kupp 4.61

Speed never hurts but it isnt everything when it comes to separation. You just have to find or luck into it which is a hard thing to do.

I will add Michael Thomas to the list. He posted same 40 time as our beloved Harry.

 

[Ross12]

So, you think that the pats have the leverage, and should threaten to cut him. If Agholor stays, his AAV is more likely to go up, rather than down.
=============
I would say to bring it on. Agholor has already collected just under $12M and the team guarantees $5M more this year. He can go out and sign a new contract with someone for a $1M salary and a bonus say of $10M over a couple of years. The patriots would kick in $4M more of guaranteed salary. Obviously the 2023 salary would also be negotiated.

I'm pretty sure that the bonus doesn't count against the patriot guarantee. If it does, then the contract could have more money guaranteed in 2023. Also, incentives could be worked out.

In any case, Agholor could have his choice, knowing that he can wait until late in the season to sign, knowing that he is getting $5M from the patriots.
============
BOTTOM LINE
Agholor will either be traded, extended or left alone. Agholor should feel no pressure to modify his contract.
I haven't a clue why folks would want to make the team weaker, which they would by cutting Agholor. Given his injury history, I would think that Parker is likely to produce less that Agholor this year. But that's fine. Having both is great. And maybe the rookie will produce a lot immediately, or not.

I COULD see Agholor traded if Belichick has a veteran that he wants to add as his replacement. Given his attractive salary, I find that unlikely,

I think we're on different pages on that one. Yes, Agholor has already collected plenty of guaranteed money, but as far as new money he's due $9M in salary with $5M of that guaranteed and $1M in game-day roster bonuses, so a total possible $10M this year. If he was cut he gets $5M and then has to go somewhere else for whatever contract he gets there.

My thought process is based on an assumption that he would not get a contract worth more than $5M this year due to currently looking like a "one-year wonder" in Vegas with all of his other years being average. Obviously if he is able to get a bigger contract than that elsewhere then my whole premise goes out the window.

I don't actually WANT to cut Agholor, I'm just saying the team might have an opportunity with leverage to try to extend him for a good value. Why would I want to extend a player I don't want to keep? But again, I could be totally off-base.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

 

[Love The Drake]

Shots fired from Simmons

 

[Ivan]

I'm not mad at this Parker add. It's a fairly low $ contract. They're clearly trying to improve this WR roster. The only issues though, is that he is getting up in years for never being a super fast guy, and he's had a lot of hamstring injuries - which will almost certainly hinder him this season. He's exactly in the Agholor bucket - a decent vet who could be productive, but won't change the season for us. Still, I feel okay about the group of 4 #2 receivers we have. And at least this move suggests Harry is finally gone. UNLESS, they really try to change him to a H-back or something.

I think we will see Jonnu Smith playing more of an H-Back role this season.

 

[RIpats88]

Separation numbers for this guy have been atrocious:

2.3yds
2.3
2.5
2.1 (2019)
1.7
1.7

I don't know how anyone would think this guy is close to a #1. Sure he had that one good year. Catch% over 60% (61 and 64) for 2 out of his 7 years. Injury history is insanely long.

All that being said, Ja'marr's separation last year was 2.3yds, so like with so many stats, one has to look at the bigger picture. Hopefully, he's not like the last guy we got in a trade from Miami (Isaiah Ford) who did nothing for us. Based on how excited everyone seems to be about this trade, I'll ride the wave and be optimistic.

He's not a #1. He's a replacement for Harry

 

[Ivan]

Yea Parker is a true #1, he's not an elite hall of famer or anything but hes a legitimate #1 that has been productive for a long time.. He absolutely schooled Stephon Gilmore the year he won DPOY

I think this is partly true. Parker is a #1 as a big possession receiver, but he won’t really stretch defenses deep so much as he will widen the field for them. Kind of like a Plaxico Buress type of WR, he will definitely command attention of a top DB, but he’s not a Randy Moss.

 

[RIpats88]

Even though Ja'marr was a rookie, I believe he already had 2 years of playing with Burrow at LSU for familiarity. That kind of time together (and time for a WR to be in a system as well - like Kupp despite the new QB Stafford) is invaluable for SB winners, I'm noticing.

It's why I hope they go after one of the bama receivers. With insight from Saban and Mac I bet they draft one.

 

[Ring 6]

So, you think that the pats have the leverage, and should threaten to cut him. If Agholor stays, his AAV is more likely to go up, rather than down.
=============
I would say to bring it on. Agholor has already collected just under $12M and the team guarantees $5M more this year. He can go out and sign a new contract with someone for a $1M salary and a bonus say of $10M over a couple of years. The patriots would kick in $4M more of guaranteed salary. Obviously the 2023 salary would also be negotiated.

I'm pretty sure that the bonus doesn't count against the patriot guarantee. If it does, then the contract could have more money guaranteed in 2023. Also, incentives could be worked out.

In any case, Agholor could have his choice, knowing that he can wait until late in the season to sign, knowing that he is getting $5M from the patriots.
============
BOTTOM LINE
Agholor will either be traded, extended or left alone. Agholor should feel no pressure to modify his contract.
I haven't a clue why folks would want to make the team weaker, which they would by cutting Agholor. Given his injury history, I would think that Parker is likely to produce less that Agholor this year. But that's fine. Having both is great. And maybe the rookie will produce a lot immediately, or not.

I COULD see Agholor traded if Belichick has a veteran that he wants to add as his replacement. Given his attractive salary, I find that unlikely,

I don’t understand how his average annual value would go up if he stayed. That would mean you would extend him at more than 10.7 mill per year. I don’t see anyway that would be the case right now.

How do you make the team better by cutting him?
Simple. If you cut him you save 4.88 million.
If you use that money on his position and sign the equivalent so Allen Robinson for the 4.3 mill cap hit he received, you improve the team. OR you could use it on a different position, having Parker takes agholors snaps and say, sign a Von Miller equivalent for about what his cap hit of 5.15 mill
is or a corner like Ward for the 3.8 mill he got.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree with your overall premise, but fyi, Edelman got decent separation. I've previously argued that Patriots SB winning years didn't have a true WR#1. Edelman after 4 years (going into his FA year) was considered by this board to be a consensus WR #4 and maybe #3. I think there was someone who thought he had potential to be an elite WR#2 and the person was mocked ruthlessly.

Eligible years for Edelman (NextGenStats)
2.8 2019
3.3 2018
2.7 2016

The fact that there were 2 years of 1.7yds of separation for Parker is glaring to me. It may also show a lot of trust for the QB. We'll see how it all plays out. In Troy I trust.

I admit I was wrong about Edelman's separations stats. But you posted three years out of a 12 year career. I assume the other nine years, he was under 2 yards in average separation. But point taken.

Parker's two years under 2 yards average was with Tua. So it could have more to do with Tua than Parker. The Dolphins were forced to run an RPO offense with Tua and that type of offense can have slower developing plays. Parker is more of a burst off the line guy than a speedster. So if the RPO makes the average play extend by a second or so, any initial separation by Parker could have closed by the time Tua threw the ball. And if Bill Simmons is right, Tua couldn't hit Parker in stride which would definitely hurt his separation numbers if Parker had to slow up or come back for a ball.

Also, during this time, the Dolphins changed OC both years with new offenses which could have affected it. The Dolphins changed the OC every year under Flores (in fact they had two OCs last year).

I don't watch enough Dolphins games to know for sure what the issue was. But the last two years could be more about other people than Parker himself.

 

[Ring 6]

Separation numbers for this guy have been atrocious:

2.3yds
2.3
2.5
2.1 (2019)
1.7
1.7

I don't know how anyone would think this guy is close to a #1. Sure he had that one good year. Catch% over 60% (61 and 64) for 2 out of his 7 years. Injury history is insanely long.

All that being said, Ja'marr's separation last year was 2.3yds, so like with so many stats, one has to look at the bigger picture. Hopefully, he's not like the last guy we got in a trade from Miami (Isaiah Ford) who did nothing for us. Based on how excited everyone seems to be about this trade, I'll ride the wave and be optimistic.

People misuse stats so readily they almost have no value any longer.
Throwing around separation, catch % and Yac without accounting for the routes the players runs is more than useless.
Here is a great example

In 2020 Deebo Samuel had a catch rate of 75% and average YAC of 12.1.
In 2021 he had a catch rate of just 64% and YAC of 10.
Did he decline?
No, in 2020 his total catches were a combined -7 yards downfield, or -0.2 while in 2021 his average catch was 8.3 yards downfield.
His catch percent was less, but he performed better catching the ball because he wasn’t only getting easy to catch screen passes. His YAC actually improved because he was catching passes that we less conducive to running after the catch but the stat looks like he did worse.
I don’t know where you find separation stats but those were no doubt different because he ran an entirely different package of routes.
On almost every pass play a receiver runs a deep sideline route. 90% of the time they are never looked at and have a corner defending almost explicitly against that route. Counting that toward separation, counting screen passes, shallow crossing routes, etc make such a stat useless without analyzing how the number was built.