Quarterbacks playing into their mid-40s: the new reality or delusion?

[AvocadoIceCream]

Well, we’ll find out here in the next 10 years!

I’d say players will be playing longer, but Father Time never loses. Men slow down in our 40s.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well it's the "new reality" for those QBs good enough and healthy enough to make it happen.

That's new and different in that a focus on health and fitness can empower a QB who has that drive

But I think the bottom line is that the lack of quality QBs in the league leaves the door open for QBs who make it to their 40s period.

Over the past 20 years there are maybe 10 QBs who, regardless of the number of SB Rings, are guys good enough in their prime to even consider playing in a sub-prime post-40

Top 10 NFL quarterbacks of the past decade | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

So while this dearth of QBs creates a higher demand for older QBs, there's no way that will ever be the "norm" simply because most QBs are just mediocre in their prime - let alone in their 40s

There is no dearth of QBs. There may be an absence of an all-time great in the ranks of the younger QBs, but there are plenty of NFL level QBs.

Brady
Brees
Tannehill
Roethlisberger
Flacco
Dalton
Carr
Rivers
Smith
Luck
Mariota
McCown (?) - late bloomer, and probably not but arguable
Watson (?) - promising, but too soon to be sure
Taylor (?) - must be in right system, borderline at best, and he's definitely not a guy you build around
Kizer (?) - probably not, but too soon to write him off
Bortles (?) - Almost certainly not, but he shows flashes of what might possibly be brought out of him



In the NFC

Wentz
Cousins
Manning (though fading)
Bradford
Rodgers
Stafford
Brees
Newton
Ryan
Winston
Goff
Wilson
JAG (?) promising start, but too soon to tell
Bridgewater (?) - if he's actually back from his injury
Keenum (?) - depends on whether or not this stretch is a fluke
Prescott (?) - too soon to be sure he's not just a product of Elliot and the line
Trubisky (?) - too soon to tell
Palmer (?) - probably shot

and that doesn't get into the guys like Mahomes, who are being groomed behind others. The league is actually flush with NFL level QBs, because the likes of Brady/Brees/Manning/Rivers are playing well deep into their theoretical NFL dotage.

 

[festy1986]

QBs will last longer because of extra knowledge & extra protection. But, I think that mid 40s is ambitious. Not even sure Brady can make it to 45 - but if anyone can...

Manning played to his arm fell off.

Given Brady's own comments, he intends to do the same.

And so far there's been zero evidence of that happening anytime soon.

Brady would have to FALL OFF A CLIFF with his production next year just to make it a feasible thought that he won't be playing at 42.

So as of this moment. I think 42 is a lock for him if mentally he' up for it.

Basically, if two seasons from now he's still a top 10 qb, you gotta wonder if 45 is low balling the prediction of when he's given it up

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Brady can't really be compared to those other guys. They're only human.

 

[Simpelton]

QBs like Wilson and Rodgers rely on their legs to make a fair amount of plays, those QBs have shorter careers generally.

Really depends on whether they can get the experience and smarts to transition into pocket passers as they age. IIRC Steve Grogan started as a mobile quarterback and made a very nice transition into a more modern pass first guy as he got older, and there are other examples.

Brady has a huge head start on this though, he was doing what old players need to do to survive on the field from day one.

 

[Shed83]

Another factor is hunger.

Some QB’s will reach 40 and with diminished hunger just wont be able to face the year long regime of being football ready! They mentally retire regardless if they still have the mental and physical tools to play on. Sometimes large amounts of wealth and differing family circumstances affects people’s hunger to be at the top of their game.

Others won’t have the physical gift of being able to play past 40 (Manning)

Others just aren’t good enough to merit a contract at that age.

Some others might be decent but will be replaced by younger/cheaper alternatives.

I still think it will be unusual to have QB’s play into their 40’s but it may become more common than it is at present!

 

[BobDigital]

It will become more common but not common still.

As health and tech advance more and more things will become possible. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. I think it is best to only talk about current QBs in the game right now. We have no idea what medicine and science will be able to do for sure 50 years down the line after all.

Pure pocket passers if they are good enough and take care of themselves will be able to play pass 40.

Hybrid QBs who run a bit (like Rodgers) will still not be able to play pass 40 but may make it there.

Guys who run way too much like Wentz/Wilson/Newton will continue to be done around 38 at the latest pretty much

 

[Viper652]

Nothing more overrated than father time. And Brees is 38, not 39

 

[Former Fan]

With all of them, even Brady, I'll believe it when I see it. As others have said, a major injury can make it all come crashing down rather quickly. Harder to rehab physically, much more likely to be permanently replaced by some young buck while they're out. Then they have to decide if they want to become a journeyman at 40+.

 

[mosi]

Hell, most QB's suck in their 20's. Let them play into their 40's. Maybe they will get better!

 

[jah]

I see it for Brees. Hard to say for Cousins because he's so young. Rodgers and Wilson? Not unless they adapt their playstyle, which they are indeed perfectly capable and intelligent enough to do.

 

[jah]

Hell, most QB's suck in their 20's. Let them play into their 40's. Maybe they will get better!

Seems to be working to some extent for McCown. I can't remember having a lower opinion of a quarterback in the early 2010s. I was thinking "he's so old, he's so bad, why is he always on a team?"

Then he had that crazy Bears stretch and I've respected him ever since.

 

[tasmlab]

In Wilson's case, why talk about it at age 29. Wait until your 39 and playing well to make any assertions about playing into your forties.