Knowing the Patriots remaining schedule, it made me curious as to what Indy and Denver had left. I'll exclude the LAC given their O-line and injury issues, especially after the beatdown they took in Jacksonville yesterday. And outside of a major collapse by all three of these teams, I don't consider any other teams in the hunt.
Denver:
Denver has been scrappy and clutch all season. They tend to dig early holes before clawing their way back - probably not how they draw it up, but they've been on the right side of the scoreboard for eight straight weeks.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13 @ WAS: This could be a letdown/trap game coming off a bye, on the road against a team likely out of contention. Leaning win.
Week 14 @ LV: A divisional game on consecutive road weeks. They struggled against the Raiders at home, though that was on a short week (TNF). Leaning win.
Week 15 vs GB: They'll be facing what I expect will be a playoff team still battling Chicago and Detroit for divisional positioning. Green Bay will show up ready to play. This could be Denver's first slip-up in 10 weeks if they haven't already stumbled. Leaning loss.
Week 16 vs JAX: Jacksonville is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde - you never know which version shows up. That said, I expect Denver takes care of business at home.
Week 17 @ KC: Kansas City will be desperate, and likely still fighting for playoff their playoff life heading into the final weeks. They have a rocky road ahead leading into this Denver matchup. Beating a divisional opponent is always tough in the NFL, even when they're struggling. It's even harder when that opponent has been the face of the league for nearly a decade and is clawing to stay in the playoff hunt. I'm firmly in the loss column here.
Week 18 vs LAC: The Chargers may not have a functioning offensive line by Week 18. Depending on playoff scenarios, if Denver needs this win for seeding purposes, I'd chalk it up as a W.
Indianapolis:
Indianapolis has faced the second-toughest strength of schedule in the league, and it doesn't get any easier. In fact, I'd be shocked if they stay in the race with New England and Denver. Their closing stretch is brutal - every remaining opponent is either a playoff team or fighting to get there. If they somehow capture the number one seed, I'd be shocked and would consider them Super Bowl favorites.
Week 12 @ KC: A team coming off a tough road loss to a division opponent, with their division title hopes extinguished and playoff hopes on life support. It's hard not to see this prideful team with a tough defense coming to play at home in front of Arrowhead. Factor in a dome team traveling to one of the league's most hostile environments. Indianapolis will either cement themselves as possibly the best team in the AFC and tickle the fat lady’s ass warming her up on KC's season, or Kansas City finds a way to stay alive. I lean toward the latter, though Indy has proven they're good. Playing outdoors is always a concern - they're 1-1 in outdoor games this year (Tennessee and Pittsburgh).
Week 13 vs HOU: Stroud will likely be back for this matchup. Houston's defense is excellent, and with Stroud returning while fighting to stay in playoff contention, this divisional game has all the makings of a split series. Leaning win as the home team.
Week 14 @ JAX: A divisional road game against a likely playoff team. Again, I'm going with the home team winning. Leaning loss.
Week 15 @ SEA: Back-to-back road games against playoff teams - a really tough spot against an unfamiliar opponent in one of the league's loudest stadiums (and that's without speaker assistance). I believe this is where they lose any realistic shot at the number one seed. Predicting back-to-back losses based on current rosters.
Week 16 vs SF: Coming home after what I expect will be back-to-back losses, albeit two tough road tests. San Francisco is another Jekyll and Hyde team, and who knows if it'll be Purdy or Mac Jones under center. Give me the Colts to bounce back here.
Week 17 vs JAX: As stated above, I think they get the home win and split the series.
Week 18 @ HOU: Same reasoning as Week 13 - home team wins.
Indianapolis likely finishes with a highly respectable 11-6 or 12-5 record, making this a two-horse race between New England and Denver, primarily due to Indy's brutal schedule. That's a strange statement to write, and it's no less strange re-reading it, but that's where we are after Week 11.
New England gets a steady diet of winnable games ahead: a Burrow-less and Chase-less Bengals team, a scrappy Giants squad that could absolutely come into Gillette and win if Jones is healthy, then the only real tests - Buffalo at home and at Baltimore. The Bills game is a true coin flip. Baltimore, I lean win, mostly because their defense is terrible, though they'll likely still be hunting for a playoff spot or possibly the division. This will be our toughest remaining game - a road contest likely to get flexed to 4pm or Sunday Night after looking at the Week 16 slate (currently SNF is Bengals/Dolphins; 4pm games are Jags/Broncos and Pit/Det - I'd expect one of those three flexed to primetime), against an AFC elite. I believe these two games are excellent test/experience builder. Both games will be as close to a playoff atmosphere as it can get during the regular season. Then we finish against the Jets and Miami at home. The Jets will be playing for the first overall pick, and the Dolphins aren't winning in Foxboro in January - I'm not sure half their roster will even want to board the plane.
It's hard to see the Patriots not finishing either 14-3 or, more likely, 13-4. At 14-3, I think they secure the one seed and the bye. At 13-4, it likely comes down to tiebreakers - a rabbit hole I'm not foolish enough to fully explore. Keeping it surface-level with conference record: if New England loses again, it's likely to Buffalo or Baltimore – or both, giving them three or four conference losses with only one non-conference game remaining. Denver's likely losses to Green Bay and Kansas City would give them three conference losses. Outside of leaving nothing to chance and winning out (which I doubt), the Patriots have room for just one more loss in the conference or will most likely end up as the second seed.
I'll also point out that given where our bye lands and having a late-season Thursday Night Football game, we're in as good or better position to handle not having a playoff bye as any other team in the league.
