Pursuit of the Bye (1st Seed)

[mgcolby]

Knowing the Patriots remaining schedule, it made me curious as to what Indy and Denver had left. I'll exclude the LAC given their O-line and injury issues, especially after the beatdown they took in Jacksonville yesterday. And outside of a major collapse by all three of these teams, I don't consider any other teams in the hunt.

Denver:

Denver has been scrappy and clutch all season. They tend to dig early holes before clawing their way back - probably not how they draw it up, but they've been on the right side of the scoreboard for eight straight weeks.

Week 12: Bye​

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Week 13 @ WAS: This could be a letdown/trap game coming off a bye, on the road against a team likely out of contention. Leaning win. Update: WIN​

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Week 14 @ LV: A divisional game on consecutive road weeks. They struggled against the Raiders at home, though that was on a short week (TNF). Leaning win. Update: Win​

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Week 15 vs GB: They'll be facing what I expect will be a playoff team still battling Chicago and Detroit for divisional positioning. Green Bay will show up ready to play. This could be Denver's first slip-up in 10 weeks if they haven't already stumbled. Leaning loss.​

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Week 16 vs JAX: Jacksonville is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde - you never know which version shows up. That said, I expect Denver takes care of business at home.​

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Week 17 @ KC: Kansas City will be desperate, and likely still fighting for playoff their playoff life heading into the final weeks. They have a rocky road ahead leading into this Denver matchup. Beating a divisional opponent is always tough in the NFL, even when they're struggling. It's even harder when that opponent has been the face of the league for nearly a decade and is clawing to stay in the playoff hunt. I'm firmly in the loss column here.​

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Week 18 vs LAC: The Chargers may not have a functioning offensive line by Week 18. Depending on playoff scenarios, if Denver needs this win for seeding purposes, I'd chalk it up as a W.​

Indianapolis:

Indianapolis has faced the second-toughest strength of schedule in the league, and it doesn't get any easier. In fact, I'd be shocked if they stay in the race with New England and Denver. Their closing stretch is brutal - every remaining opponent is either a playoff team or fighting to get there. If they somehow capture the number one seed, I'd be shocked and would consider them Super Bowl favorites.

Week 12 @ KC: A team coming off a tough road loss to a division opponent, with their division title hopes extinguished and playoff hopes on life support. It's hard not to see this prideful team with a tough defense coming to play at home in front of Arrowhead. Factor in a dome team traveling to one of the league's most hostile environments. Indianapolis will either cement themselves as possibly the best team in the AFC and tickle the fat lady’s ass warming her up on KC's season, or Kansas City finds a way to stay alive. I lean toward the latter, though Indy has proven they're good. Playing outdoors is always a concern - they're 1-1 in outdoor games this year (Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Update: Loss​

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Week 13 vs HOU: Stroud will likely be back for this matchup. Houston's defense is excellent, and with Stroud returning while fighting to stay in playoff contention, this divisional game has all the makings of a split series. Leaning win as the home team. Update: Loss ​

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Week 14 @ JAX: A divisional road game against a likely playoff team. Again, I'm going with the home team winning. Leaning loss. Update: Loss and Jones is done. Hard to see Leonard keeping this team afloat. Probably looking at 7 straight losses here. Hard to see them beating any of these remaining teams. ​

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Week 15 @ SEA: Back-to-back road games against playoff teams - a really tough spot against an unfamiliar opponent in one of the league's loudest stadiums (and that's without speaker assistance). I believe this is where they lose any realistic shot at the number one seed. Predicting back-to-back losses based on current rosters.​

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Week 16 vs SF: Coming home after what I expect will be back-to-back losses, albeit two tough road tests. San Francisco is another Jekyll and Hyde team, and who knows if it'll be Purdy or Mac Jones under center. Give me the Colts to bounce back here.​

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Week 17 vs JAX: As stated above, I think they get the home win and split the series.​

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Week 18 @ HOU: Same reasoning as Week 13 - home team wins.​

Indianapolis likely finishes with a highly respectable 11-6 or 12-5 record, making this a two-horse race between New England and Denver, primarily due to Indy's brutal schedule. That's a strange statement to write, and it's no less strange re-reading it, but that's where we are after Week 11.

New England gets a steady diet of winnable games ahead: a Burrow-less and Chase-less Bengals team, a scrappy Giants squad that could absolutely come into Gillette and win if Jones is healthy, then the only real tests - Buffalo at home and at Baltimore. The Bills game is a true coin flip. Baltimore, I lean win, mostly because their defense is terrible, though they'll likely still be hunting for a playoff spot or possibly the division. This will be our toughest remaining game - a road contest likely to get flexed to 4pm or Sunday Night after looking at the Week 16 slate (currently SNF is Bengals/Dolphins; 4pm games are Jags/Broncos and Pit/Det - I'd expect one of those three flexed to primetime), against an AFC elite. I believe these two games are excellent test/experience builder. Both games will be as close to a playoff atmosphere as it can get during the regular season. Then we finish against the Jets and Miami at home. The Jets will be playing for the first overall pick, and the Dolphins aren't winning in Foxboro in January - I'm not sure half their roster will even want to board the plane.

It's hard to see the Patriots not finishing either 14-3 or, more likely, 13-4. At 14-3, I think they secure the one seed and the bye. At 13-4, it likely comes down to tiebreakers - a rabbit hole I'm not foolish enough to fully explore. Keeping it surface-level with conference record: if New England loses again, it's likely to Buffalo or Baltimore – or both, giving them three or four conference losses with only one non-conference game remaining. Denver's likely losses to Green Bay and Kansas City would give them three conference losses. Outside of leaving nothing to chance and winning out (which I doubt), the Patriots have room for just one more loss in the conference or will most likely end up as the second seed.

I'll also point out that given where our bye lands and having a late-season Thursday Night Football game, we're in as good or better position to handle not having a playoff bye as any other team in the league.

 

[Family]

14-3 they get the BYE
13-4 they lose in tie breakers.

 

[p8ryts]

This all makes me nervous, planning the post season. I know it looks promising, but I can't deal with anything other than one game at a time.

 

[Rob0729]

Not to jinx it, but I really think it is a two team race between the Pats and Broncos. Indy faces mostly playoff teams or teams fighting for their playoff lives the rest of the way. And they seem to be slowing down.

 

[PatsFan2]

14-3 they get the BYE
13-4 they lose in tie breakerds

Not that I see us losing Four Games: but I don't see any of our other rivals finishing 13-4. We have the road with least amount of resistance.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Agreed it comes down to denver and us and 13-4 is very risky now if we want the 1 seed. I could be wrong but heres how that works with Denver if we’re both 13-4:

If one of our losses is to nyg and their 2 losses are afc opponents we would get it on afc record . But if afc record is even or worse i think its most likely going to them . The next tiebreak is common opponents and the raiders loss will kill us there since denver will at worst be 1-1 against them. We haven’t beaten any teams that have beaten them or play them down the stretch.

Hopefully we can go 14-3 or get lucky and Denver loses 3 more

 

[Family]

Not that I see us losing Four Games: but I don't see any of our other rivals finishing 13-4. We have the road with least amount of resistance.

Not sure what you're saying?

 

[NFL Mystique]

Jinx thread? 2021 that had the one seed and lost alot of games down the stretch.

 

[PatsFan2]

Not to jinx it, but I really think it is a two team race between the Pats and Broncos. Indy faces mostly playoff teams or teams fighting for their playoff lives the rest of the way. And they seem to be slowing down.

Denver's luck is going to run: glad they exorcised the Ghost of Patrick Mahomes yesterday. But that's as far as they will go: their Offense is kind of anemic. We have the Offense that would give their D some problems.

 

[Steve102]

I have them at 13-4 and that's probably the #2.

That's wild.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I would pick between us and DEN for the #1 seed just based on watching the teams play and seeing the schedules. They'll probably be favored every game except @KC. We'll probably be favored every game except vs. BUF depending on how we look vs. CIN and how BUF looks in their next two games leading up to that one. So it's really going to come down to who slips up and loses a game they should win on paper.

The strength of DEN's team is that they have maybe the best pass rush and overall defense of some of our lifetimes. Our biggest strength as a team is that Maye is throwing downfield better than maybe anyone ever. Feels like DEN's strength is less likely to slip up and have a bad day. I feel like DEN's weaknesses are more exaggerated than ours though too, so maybe it evens out.

Truly a toss up for me. I probably lean DEN just because I'd trust their strength to show up every week without slippage vs. ours.

 

[mgcolby]

Denver's luck is going to run: glad they exorcised the Ghost of Patrick Mahomes yesterday. But that's as far as they will go: their Offense is kind of anemic. We have the Offense that would give their D some problems.

They've faced the Colts, Chargers (when they were healthy), Philly and Dallas. Dallas is sporadic but that offense can and does throw up points. They held them all to 24 or less with the exception of Indianapolis. That defense is solid. Their schedule is more difficult but it's not murderer's row. I agree at some point that fourth quarter BS should ware off but until it does its hard seeing them losing three of those games, barring injuries. Not to say they can't or won't, but they are going to be favored in every one of those remaining games. They've had one outlier and that was NYG. Who also mustered up enough to beat Philly.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Not sure what you're saying?

That nobody else has a better chance of having 13 or more wins than us

 

[VrabelJr]

If Indy runs the table against that schedule then they are the real deal and a Super Bowl favorite if they are healthy after that gauntlet.

 

[Ring 6]

Knowing the Patriots remaining schedule, it made me curious as to what Indy and Denver had left. I'll exclude the LAC given their O-line and injury issues, especially after the beatdown they took in Jacksonville yesterday. And outside of a major collapse by all three of these teams, I don't consider any other teams in the hunt.

Denver:

Denver has been scrappy and clutch all season. They tend to dig early holes before clawing their way back - probably not how they draw it up, but they've been on the right side of the scoreboard for eight straight weeks.

Week 12: Bye​

​

Week 13 @ WAS: This could be a letdown/trap game coming off a bye, on the road against a team likely out of contention. Leaning win.​

​

Week 14 @ LV: A divisional game on consecutive road weeks. They struggled against the Raiders at home, though that was on a short week (TNF). Leaning win.​

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Week 15 vs GB: They'll be facing what I expect will be a playoff team still battling Chicago and Detroit for divisional positioning. Green Bay will show up ready to play. This could be Denver's first slip-up in 10 weeks if they haven't already stumbled. Leaning loss.​

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Week 16 vs JAX: Jacksonville is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde - you never know which version shows up. That said, I expect Denver takes care of business at home.​

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Week 17 @ KC: Kansas City will be desperate, and likely still fighting for playoff their playoff life heading into the final weeks. They have a rocky road ahead leading into this Denver matchup. Beating a divisional opponent is always tough in the NFL, even when they're struggling. It's even harder when that opponent has been the face of the league for nearly a decade and is clawing to stay in the playoff hunt. I'm firmly in the loss column here.​

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Week 18 vs LAC: The Chargers may not have a functioning offensive line by Week 18. Depending on playoff scenarios, if Denver needs this win for seeding purposes, I'd chalk it up as a W.​

Indianapolis:

Indianapolis has faced the second-toughest strength of schedule in the league, and it doesn't get any easier. In fact, I'd be shocked if they stay in the race with New England and Denver. Their closing stretch is brutal - every remaining opponent is either a playoff team or fighting to get there. If they somehow capture the number one seed, I'd be shocked and would consider them Super Bowl favorites.

Week 12 @ KC: A team coming off a tough road loss to a division opponent, with their division title hopes extinguished and playoff hopes on life support. It's hard not to see this prideful team with a tough defense coming to play at home in front of Arrowhead. Factor in a dome team traveling to one of the league's most hostile environments. Indianapolis will either cement themselves as possibly the best team in the AFC and tickle the fat lady’s ass warming her up on KC's season, or Kansas City finds a way to stay alive. I lean toward the latter, though Indy has proven they're good. Playing outdoors is always a concern - they're 1-1 in outdoor games this year (Tennessee and Pittsburgh).​

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Week 13 vs HOU: Stroud will likely be back for this matchup. Houston's defense is excellent, and with Stroud returning while fighting to stay in playoff contention, this divisional game has all the makings of a split series. Leaning win as the home team.​

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Week 14 @ JAX: A divisional road game against a likely playoff team. Again, I'm going with the home team winning. Leaning loss.​

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Week 15 @ SEA: Back-to-back road games against playoff teams - a really tough spot against an unfamiliar opponent in one of the league's loudest stadiums (and that's without speaker assistance). I believe this is where they lose any realistic shot at the number one seed. Predicting back-to-back losses based on current rosters.​

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Week 16 vs SF: Coming home after what I expect will be back-to-back losses, albeit two tough road tests. San Francisco is another Jekyll and Hyde team, and who knows if it'll be Purdy or Mac Jones under center. Give me the Colts to bounce back here.​

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Week 17 vs JAX: As stated above, I think they get the home win and split the series.​

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Week 18 @ HOU: Same reasoning as Week 13 - home team wins.​

Indianapolis likely finishes with a highly respectable 11-6 or 12-5 record, making this a two-horse race between New England and Denver, primarily due to Indy's brutal schedule. That's a strange statement to write, and it's no less strange re-reading it, but that's where we are after Week 11.

New England gets a steady diet of winnable games ahead: a Burrow-less and Chase-less Bengals team, a scrappy Giants squad that could absolutely come into Gillette and win if Jones is healthy, then the only real tests - Buffalo at home and at Baltimore. The Bills game is a true coin flip. Baltimore, I lean win, mostly because their defense is terrible, though they'll likely still be hunting for a playoff spot or possibly the division. This will be our toughest remaining game - a road contest likely to get flexed to 4pm or Sunday Night after looking at the Week 16 slate (currently SNF is Bengals/Dolphins; 4pm games are Jags/Broncos and Pit/Det - I'd expect one of those three flexed to primetime), against an AFC elite. I believe these two games are excellent test/experience builder. Both games will be as close to a playoff atmosphere as it can get during the regular season. Then we finish against the Jets and Miami at home. The Jets will be playing for the first overall pick, and the Dolphins aren't winning in Foxboro in January - I'm not sure half their roster will even want to board the plane.

It's hard to see the Patriots not finishing either 14-3 or, more likely, 13-4. At 14-3, I think they secure the one seed and the bye. At 13-4, it likely comes down to tiebreakers - a rabbit hole I'm not foolish enough to fully explore. Keeping it surface-level with conference record: if New England loses again, it's likely to Buffalo or Baltimore – or both, giving them three or four conference losses with only one non-conference game remaining. Denver's likely losses to Green Bay and Kansas City would give them three conference losses. Outside of leaving nothing to chance and winning out (which I doubt), the Patriots have room for just one more loss in the conference or will most likely end up as the second seed.

I'll also point out that given where our bye lands and having a late-season Thursday Night Football game, we're in as good or better position to handle not having a playoff bye as any other team in the league.

Why did you conclude 13-4 is more likely than 14-3? That would entail losing both of the competitive games.

 

[Ring 6]

I would pick between us and DEN for the #1 seed just based on watching the teams play and seeing the schedules. They'll probably be favored every game except @KC. We'll probably be favored every game except vs. BUF depending on how we look vs. CIN and how BUF looks in their next two games leading up to that one. So it's really going to come down to who slips up and loses a game they should win on paper.

The strength of DEN's team is that they have maybe the best pass rush and overall defense of some of our lifetimes. Our biggest strength as a team is that Maye is throwing downfield better than maybe anyone ever. Feels like DEN's strength is less likely to slip up and have a bad day. I feel like DEN's weaknesses are more exaggerated than ours though too, so maybe it evens out.

Truly a toss up for me. I probably lean DEN just because I'd trust their strength to show up every week without slippage vs. ours.

We will be favored at home against Buffalo

 

[Joey007]

14-3 they get the BYE
13-4 they lose in tie breakers.

Broncos and Colts do not have easy schedules. It’s very possible we would stand alone at 13-4.

 

[Joey007]

Why did you conclude 13-4 is more likely than 14-3? That would entail losing both of the competitive games.

Could also mean we drop one of the games against the not as good teams. Could be due to happen at some point.

 

[mgcolby]

Why did you conclude 13-4 is more likely than 14-3? That would entail losing both of the competitive games.

Because I am of the mindset that most teams lose games here or there they shouldn't and I consider the Giants a competitive game especially if Dart is healthy. Don't get me wrong the Pats should be favored in every game remaining. The team has been playing well, obviously, but they are still young and I think the odds of two losses (one clunker) are more likely than none or one.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Patriots need to take it one game at a time. We’re fans so were allowed to think ahead but one game at a time.

With that said, if we go 15-2 and win the superbowl then that would be insanity and I’d be here for it