Potential 3-way tie for 1st between NE, KC and Houston (edit: LAC also in the mix)

[PatsBoy12]

We hold the tie-breakers over both teams!

 

[mosslost]

Forgive me if this has already beeen rehashed in another thread, but I had a question about conference tie breakers. I just realized that with Houston and NE now at 8-3, there could be a potential 3-way tie for 1st if KC drops another one. I think there’s a very good possibility for this:

NE - remaining tough games against Minn and @Pitt, but I can see them winning both.

Houston - no tough games left

KC - tough games against Balt, LAC, and @Seattle. I think KC could lose to Seattle or LAC but probably no more than one more loss.

With each team at 13-3, what’s the tie breaker? Isn’t it winning percentage in games against one another? If so, NE has a big edge for the 1 seed having already beaten KC and Houston. KC and Houston would fight for the 2 seed in which case the conference winning percentage comes to play (since they are both 0-1 against NE and did not play each other). If KC loses to loses to LAC, it would give them 2 conference losses along with Houston. What’s the tie breaker after conference winning percentage?

Potentially, the AFC could shape up as follows:

NE - 1

Houston - 2

KC - 3

Pitt - 4

LAC - 5

Baltimore/Indy - 6

KC hosting a wild card game would be something.

3 way 13-3 tie actual hurts Pats. Head to head tie breakers are thrown out in three wAy tie.

Chargers win last night actually bad. The Steelers game is must win anyway so their loss last night irrelevant.

If Chargers, Houston and Pats win out we can’t get the one seed. ( in this scenario the Chargers win the division)

We can only get the two seed unless several other teams lose some games and we win out.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

H2H tiebreakers are NOT thrown out in 3 way ties. They apply if one team has beaten the others or one team has lost to the others. If NE, HOU, and KC tie then NE gets the #1 on H2H because NE beat both.

But if it is NE, HOU, and LAC then H2H does *not* apply and right now it’s looking like NE would be #2 on record in common games.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

H2H tiebreakers are NOT thrown out in 3 way ties. They apply if one team has beaten the others or one team has lost to the others. If NE, HOU, and KC tie then NE gets the #1 on H2H because NE beat both.

But if it is NE, HOU, and LAC then H2H does *not* apply and right now it’s looking like NE would be #2 on record in common games.

Correct. In a 3-way tie with NE, HOU and LAC, the texans would get the 1 seed and NE the 2 seed. This if all 3 teams win out.

Edit: LAC would get the 1 seed, not Houston

 

[sb1]

The longshot scenario I mentioned last week where the Pats would not get a bye even if they win out...it still exists. I think I know what it is now. HOU wins out, LAC wins out and NE wins out, KC is #5. With this scenario HOU is actually #1. For LAC to be #2 they need more than one of the awful teams they beat like OAK to win out and for the good teams the Pats beat like MIN, CHI etc to lose a bunch of games to allow LAC to get the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over us. That has to be it.

Very unlikely.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

The longshot scenario I mentioned last week where the Pats would not get a bye even if they win out...it still exists. I think I know what it is now. HOU wins out, LAC wins out and NE wins out, KC is #5. With this scenario HOU is actually #1. For LAC to be #2 they need more than one of the awful teams they beat like OAK to win out and for the good teams the Pats beat like MIN, CHI etc to lose a bunch of games to allow LAC to get the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over us. That has to be it.

Very unlikely.

According to the playoff machine, in your scenario of NE, Houston and SD winning out, NE gets the 2 seed.

 

[sb1]

According to the playoff machine, in your scenario of NE, Houston and SD winning out, NE gets the 2 seed.

I posted about that last week and I believe they are wrong. They give the Pats the common games tiebreaker over LAC and that's not correct. Both teams would be 4-1 against common opponents so strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. Unless I'm missing something?

 

[mosslost]

H2H tiebreakers are NOT thrown out in 3 way ties. They apply if one team has beaten the others or one team has lost to the others. If NE, HOU, and KC tie then NE gets the #1 on H2H because NE beat both.

But if it is NE, HOU, and LAC then H2H does *not* apply and right now it’s looking like NE would be #2 on record in common games.

I was wrong. You are right. I just did the playoff machine and basically we want a three way tie with Houston and KC, but NOT with Houston and the Chargers... so last night we wanted the Steelers to win...

We have to win out either way, so we have a bit of a bind. If the Chargers do beat the Chiefs we need them to lose another game, or we want the Chiefs to lose to either the Ravens or the Seahawks and BEAT the Chargers... Regardless we have to win all our games including the Steelers regardless of their game last night, so we really would have benefited if the Steelers did not pull a collective Ben last night.

 

[mosslost]

It is possible, but unlikely we could not get a bye at all at 13-3, which if that scenario seems possible we want the Chiefs ro win out, and take the 2, and take our chances at Arrowhead for AFCCG.

Best if some of these teams screw up. I have friends who think the Steelers losing last night helped us it absolutely hurt us.

 

[sb1]

Pats are 12-0 with 16-0 doable right now if they beat the Jags, Titans and the Lions.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I posted about that last week and I believe they are wrong. They give the Pats the common games tiebreaker over LAC and that's not correct. Both teams would be 4-1 against common opponents so strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. Unless I'm missing something?

i think the tie breaker after H2H would be conference winning percentage. So if NE, SD, and Houston win out, then LAC would be 1, NE 2, Houston 3. i believe NE’s H2H over Houston applies once SD gets the 1 seed

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Duplicate post

 

[everlong]

Houston's remaining schedule is both easy and appalling in that I loathe rooting for any of the below.

Indy
@NYJ
@Philly
Jax

 

[festy1986]

Win and were in. No one to blame but our selves if we don't.

So ya. Let's gooooooo

 

[sashasaurav]

I think it's better for pats to be number 2 seed if KC falls to 5 .

In this case Houston 3rd Vs 6th seed , let say baltimore
4th vs 5th .. Steelers Vs Chiefs -

We play either houston or baltimore .. Which is good instead of steelers/chiefs/chargers

If steelers or Chiefs make it out .. We will host AFCCG in Gillete

 

[Wax Frog]

Houston's remaining schedule is both easy and appalling in that I loathe rooting for any of the below.

Indy
@NYJ
@Philly
Jax

Do like me, and make the phrase "root against" your friend. Besides, we don't want those teams drafting any higher than necessary.

 

[brdmaverick]

I think it's better for pats to be number 2 seed if KC falls to 5 .

In this case Houston 3rd Vs 6th seed , let say baltimore
4th vs 5th .. Steelers Vs Chiefs -

We play either houston or baltimore .. Which is good instead of steelers/chiefs/chargers

If steelers or Chiefs make it out .. We will host AFCCG in Gillete

NFL playoffs reseed, so in your scenario if Baltimore wins, then they go to the #1 seed (LA) and we would get the winner of Steelers/Chiefs.

But if Houston wins, we would get them and LA could get the winner of Steelers/Chiefs.

 

[libra957]

Things are very fuzzy for the Pats, with games at Miami and at the Steelers nothing is certain.

 

[patsfan13]

Things are very fuzzy for the Pats, with games at Miami and at the Steelers nothing is certain.

IMO Fins game tougher than Steelers.
Win and let the Chips fall where they will.

 

[jimnance]

If the Pats win out and stay healthy, they are the best team in the NFL.
You want a bye, but even with the #2 or even#3( which is highly unlikely), I'll take them over anybody else. This team has a lot if the same vibe as both 2014 and 2016- they're tough, mentally and physically, as well as smart. The added dimensions that Gordon and michel bring to the offense are big-time.
All that talk by fools a few weeks ago about this being a subpar Pats team was just bs. This could end up being one of the best teams we've seen.
How do ya like THEM apples?