Potential 3-way tie for 1st between NE, KC and Houston (edit: LAC also in the mix)

[Kontradiction]

Using the ESPN playoff machine, with a 3 way tie at 13-3:

If the KC loss is to Raiders, Baltimore or Seattle then Pats get #1, KC gets #2 and Houston is #3

However if the KC loss is to LA then the pats get #1, Houston #2 and KC #3 <---edit: I just realised that would actually be a 4 way tie at 13-3 with Chargers included who lose the division tie breaker to KC and get 5th seed....wild

 

[sb1]

I wonder if the NFL will ever decide a playoff spot or division by coin toss tiebreaker. I'm sure the odds of it happening are microscopic but can you imagine your season coming down to a coin toss. LOL

 

[SHOWTIME15]

#2 wouldn’t apply here and should be replaced with #4, right?

Thanks, the problem is that the NFL has this listed under wild-card tie breaking procedures for 3 or more teams. That’s why it’s so confusing.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

All I know is Pats can't afford to slip up here to end the year

 

[PatsFan2]

All I know is Pats can't afford to slip up here to end the year

Yep this is the NFL where anything can happen but there is nothing like controlling your own destiny.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Thanks, the problem is that the NFL has this listed under wild-card tie breaking procedures for 3 or more teams. That’s why it’s so confusing.

The wild-card tiebreakers are also used to break ties between the division champions to establish the 1-4 seeds.

 

[sb1]

Maybe we do have control of destiny for the 2.

I think the ESPN machine is wrong or not up to date.

I selected Texans winning out, the Patriots winning out, the Chiefs losing to the Chargers plus one more game, and LA winning out - and the machine ranks Hou at #1, and the Patriots at #2 ahead of LA at #3 due to winning percentage in common games.

Which I think is wrong. The common games are (KC, Buf, Ten and Pit). If both teams win out then the Chargers and the Pats are both 4-1 in that group. Then it goes to strength of victory and that will depend on how the rest of the schedule plays out with all the Pats and Chargers opponents on their own schedule. Right now the Chargers have only beaten 1 winning team so they're way behind the Pats in this category but a win over Pit and KC (plus the fact Hou has an easy schedule the rest of the way) and they'll close that gap in a hurry.

It's probably true that there is a very small number of sequences of wins and losses across the league that would give this tiebreaker to the Chargers and that's why the Patriots don't quite control their destiny for the bye just yet.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think the ESPN machine is wrong or not up to date.

I selected Texans winning out, the Patriots winning out, the Chiefs losing to the Chargers plus one more game, and LA winning out - and the machine ranks Hou at #1, and the Patriots at #2 ahead of LA at #3 due to winning percentage in common games.

Which I think is wrong. The common games are (KC, Buf, Ten and Pit). If both teams win out then the Chargers and the Pats are both 4-1 in that group. Then it goes to strength of victory and that will depend on how the rest of the schedule plays out with all the Pats and Chargers opponents on their own schedule. Right now the Chargers have only beaten 1 winning team so they're way behind the Pats in this category but a win over Pit and KC and they'll close that gap in a hurry.

It's probably true that there is a very small number of sequences of wins and losses across the league that would give this tiebreaker to the Chargers and that's why the Patriots don't quite control their destiny for the bye just yet.

I actually was looking into this earlier if sd and us win out, with sd winning the afcw at 13-3, to see who would get the tiebreaker. from how i read it too it comes down to strength of victory which yes at the time we are way ahead, I think its 41-27 in terms of wins. Of course that could change a bit in the last 5 weeks but I doubt they move ahead of us there.

 

[sb1]

I actually was looking into this earlier if sd and us win out, with sd winning the afcw at 13-3, to see who would get the tiebreaker. from how i read it too it comes down to strength of victory which yes at the time we are way ahead, I think its 41-27 in terms of wins. Of course that could change a bit in the last 5 weeks but I doubt they move ahead of us there.

Yeah the number of scenarios where that might happen is really small. Probably would mean something really crazy happened like mediocre or bad teams that the Chargers beat winning out say like the Seahawks winning out AND the Raiders winning out AND the 49ers winning out - and good teams we play and beat like the Bears or Vikings completely collapsing and losing the rest of the way or something like that.

 

[ashley]

I hope you're right about the scenario but just being realistic, I don't see it happening. One game ago, we just got beat bad by the Titans and honestly our game against the Jets was nothing special. I think we need to play better going forward. We have tough games against Minn, at Pitt and also at Miami. Would anyone be shocked if we lost any one of these games?

 

[sb1]

I hope you're right about the scenario but just being realistic, I don't see it happening. One game ago, we just got beat bad by the Titans and honestly our game against the Jets was nothing special. I think we need to play better going forward. We have tough games against Minn, at Pitt and also at Miami. Would anyone be shocked if we lost any one of these games?

Nope. I also don't see any super teams out there in the AFC so it's a fair question for any AFC team.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Kareem Hunt being released opens things up BIGLY in the AFC

 

[nabwong]

A 5 seed with a 13-3 record is almost as crazy as the 11-5 Pats missing the playoffs a decade ago.

I’m still upset about that season. We had 3rd and 15 against the Jets and we couldn’t stop a JAG TE.

 

[signbabybrady]

I wonder if the NFL will ever decide a playoff spot or division by coin toss tiebreaker. I'm sure the odds of it happening are microscopic but can you imagine your season coming down to a coin toss. LOL

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Matt Ryan looks like he’s about to get a colonoscopy.

 

[luuked]

Matt Ryan looks like he’s about to get a colonoscopy.

That was one of the few things he was able to anticipate correctly after halftime.

 

[Foxypats]

We all talk about Pitts and Miami but let's not sleep on this Vikings team either. They have a lot of really good players and will be a handful this afternoon.

 

[Uptown]

Nooooooo!!!!

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Outside possibility of SD winning the AFCW, but they basically have to win out. If NE, SD and Houston go 13-3, who gets the 1 seed?

 

[sb1]

Outside possibility of SD winning the AFCW, but they basically have to win out. If NE, SD and Houston go 13-3, who gets the 1 seed?

Patriots