Potential 3-way tie for 1st between NE, KC and Houston (edit: LAC also in the mix)

[SHOWTIME15]

Forgive me if this has already beeen rehashed in another thread, but I had a question about conference tie breakers. I just realized that with Houston and NE now at 8-3, there could be a potential 3-way tie for 1st if KC drops another one. I think there’s a very good possibility for this:

NE - remaining tough games against Minn and @Pitt, but I can see them winning both.

Houston - no tough games left

KC - tough games against Balt, LAC, and @Seattle. I think KC could lose to Seattle or LAC but probably no more than one more loss.

With each team at 13-3, what’s the tie breaker? Isn’t it winning percentage in games against one another? If so, NE has a big edge for the 1 seed having already beaten KC and Houston. KC and Houston would fight for the 2 seed in which case the conference winning percentage comes to play (since they are both 0-1 against NE and did not play each other). If KC loses to loses to LAC, it would give them 2 conference losses along with Houston. What’s the tie breaker after conference winning percentage?

Potentially, the AFC could shape up as follows:

NE - 1

Houston - 2

KC - 3

Pitt - 4

LAC - 5

Baltimore/Indy - 6

KC hosting a wild card game would be something.

 

[luuked]

That would be quite something. And you are right that all of this is definitely possible.

 

[BlueThunder]

Pats haven't hit playoff form yet...something seems to be missing this year......they are struggling to win games and they lose to the likes of Tenn and Detroit? Let's hope the
injury bug is behind them and they are at full strength the rest of the way....

 

[Tunescribe]

Too early for this kind of speculation to be meaningful.

 

[XLIX]

Forgive me if this has already beeen rehashed in another thread, but I had a question about conference tie breakers. I just realized that with Houston and NE now at 8-3, there could be a potential 3-way tie for 1st if KC drops another one. I think there’s a very good possibility for this:

NE - remaining tough games against Minn and @Pitt, but I can see them winning both.

Houston - no tough games left

KC - tough games against Balt, LAC, and @Seattle. I think KC could lose to Seattle or LAC but probably no more than one more loss.

With each team at 13-3, what’s the tie breaker? Isn’t it common games against one another? If so, NE has a big edge for the 1 seed having already beaten KC and Houston. KC and Houston would fight for the 2 seed in which case the conference winning percentage comes to play (since they are both 0-1 against NE and did not play each other). If KC loses to loses to LAC, it would give them 2 conference losses along with Houston. What’s the tie breaker after conference winning percentage?

You mention the first tiebreaker as “common games against one another.” That’s head-to-head. “Common games” is something different. “Common games” is how the teams stack up against teams they have each played.

As you mention, head to head comes first and Patriots take #1 because they beat both Houston and KC. After that, to determine who is #2 and #3, is conference record. In your above hypothetical, they are tied.

Then comes common games. You have to have a minimum of four common games for this to apply, but the way the NFL schedule is structured, any two teams in the same conference will have a minimum of at least four common games by the end of the season. I looked it up and each team played NE, Jax and Denver. Again, using your hypothetical, each team is 3-1 in these common games.

Now comes strength of victory, not to be confused with strength of schedule. SoV is the combined record of every team you’ve beaten. I have no idea how Kansas City in Houston shape up against each other in that category.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Too early for this kind of speculation to be meaningful.

Not really. There are 5 games left.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

You mention the first tiebreaker as “common games against one another.” That’s head-to-head. “Common games” is something different. “Common games” is how the teams stack up against teams they have each played.

As you mention, head to head comes first and Patriots take #1 because they beat both Houston and KC. After that, to determine who is #2 and #3, is conference record. In your above hypothetical, they are tied.

Then comes common games. You have to have a minimum of four common games for this to apply, but the way the NFL schedule is structured, any two teams in the same conference will have a minimum of at least four common games by the end of the season. I looked it up and each team played NE, Jax and Denver. Again, using your hypothetical, each team is 3-1 in these common games.

Now comes strength of victory, not to be confused with strength of schedule. SoV is the combined record of every team you’ve beaten. I have no idea how Kansas City in Houston shape up against each other in that category.

Thanks. I’d laugh so hard if KC ended up as the 3 seed after all the media hype about them.

 

[slash83]

Unfortunately I see one maybe two losses before the seasons over.

 

[signbabybrady]

You mention the first tiebreaker as “common games against one another.” That’s head-to-head. “Common games” is something different. “Common games” is how the teams stack up against teams they have each played.

As you mention, head to head comes first and Patriots take #1 because they beat both Houston and KC. After that, to determine who is #2 and #3, is conference record. In your above hypothetical, they are tied.

Then comes common games. You have to have a minimum of four common games for this to apply, but the way the NFL schedule is structured, any two teams in the same conference will have a minimum of at least four common games by the end of the season. I looked it up and each team played NE, Jax and Denver. Again, using your hypothetical, each team is 3-1 in these common games.

Now comes strength of victory, not to be confused with strength of schedule. SoV is the combined record of every team you’ve beaten. I have no idea how Kansas City in Houston shape up against each other in that category.

Head to Head does not get used in a 3way tie unless all 3 teams played each other. KC and Houston did not play so they go to the next tie breaker. I think conference record is next.

Edit: All 3 teams do not have to play if one team beat both or one team lost to both.

 

[Joey007]

You’re dismissing the @ Miami game too easily.

We lost there last year week 14. It could easily happen again.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Head to Head does not get used in a 3way tie unless all 3 teams played each other. KC and Houston did not play so they go to the next tie breaker. I think conference record is next.

KC could potentially go 11-1 in conference games and NE 10-2. Even if NE wins out and KC loses to Seattle, KC gets the 1 seed (assuming Houston wins out, which they likely will). This sucks. Houston could screw everything up for us.

 

[qbno12]

I doubt Houston will get the #1 seed. As good as they are right now, I doubt their offense will do well in playoffs on the road. That said, if they do get #1 seed (and we get #2), I'd rather play Houston on the road in playoffs than play at KC.

 

[sb1]

You mention the first tiebreaker as “common games against one another.” That’s head-to-head. “Common games” is something different. “Common games” is how the teams stack up against teams they have each played.

As you mention, head to head comes first and Patriots take #1 because they beat both Houston and KC. After that, to determine who is #2 and #3, is conference record. In your above hypothetical, they are tied.

Then comes common games. You have to have a minimum of four common games for this to apply, but the way the NFL schedule is structured, any two teams in the same conference will have a minimum of at least four common games by the end of the season. I looked it up and each team played NE, Jax and Denver. Again, using your hypothetical, each team is 3-1 in these common games.

Now comes strength of victory, not to be confused with strength of schedule. SoV is the combined record of every team you’ve beaten. I have no idea how Kansas City in Houston shape up against each other in that category.

Right now HOU strength of victory is .455 and KC is .424. Houston has a very easy schedule left so it seems the edge on that tiebreaker is with KC. KC has a few tougher games like the Chargers, Seahawks and Ravens. If KC beats the 8-3 Chargers then that would be a big boost to their SoV tiebreaker chances over HOU.

The Chargers could be in a tiebreaker scenario too as they are also 8-3 but the only winning team they've beaten to date is the 6-5 Seahawks so they're probably behind in any SoV tiebreaker.

Pats beating HOU in week 1 looks huge right about now.

 

[sb1]

Patriots are .540 in Strength of Victory. 4 wins vs teams currently with winning records. If we beat the Vikings and Steelers that will be 6 wins. That's the most they've had since the 16-0 season. This is a good way to evaluate how good a team really is.

Comparison - the 2011 Patriots had zero regular season wins vs teams with winning records. Their only such win was against BAL in the AFC Championship game and they were very lucky to even beat them with Cundiff shanking a game tying FG. Not hard to see a team like that get beat by an inferior team like the Giants in the Super Bowl.

 

[Two Eight]

Using the ESPN playoff machine, with a 3 way tie at 13-3:

If the KC loss is to Raiders, Baltimore or Seattle then Pats get #1, KC gets #2 and Houston is #3

However if the KC loss is to LA then the pats get #1, Houston #2 and KC #3 <---edit: I just realised that would actually be a 4 way tie at 13-3 with Chargers included who lose the division tie breaker to KC and get 5th seed....wild

 

[sb1]

Using the ESPN playoff machine, with a 3 way tie at 13-3:

If the KC loss is to Raiders, Baltimore or Seattle then Pats get #1, KC gets #2 and Houston is #3

However if the KC loss is to LA then the pats get #1, Houston #2 and KC #3 <---edit: I just realised that would actually be a 4 way tie at 13-3 with Chargers included who lose the division tie breaker to KC and get 5th seed....wild

A 5 seed with a 13-3 record is almost as crazy as the 11-5 Pats missing the playoffs a decade ago.

 

[Ivan]

I don’t see them even getting a bye, let alone the #1 seed. I think they are going to lose at least one, if not two of their last five games. They are going to have to go the long road to win another Lombardi, and even if they get there getting past the Saints or Rams is going to be really difficult for this team. Not that it can’t be done, but if it did it would be the perfect bookend win to top off the Brady/ Belichick era.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Head to Head does not get used in a 3way tie unless all 3 teams played each other. KC and Houston did not play so they go to the next tie breaker. I think conference record is next.

That's not true. H2H is used if one team beat the other two or if one team lost to the other two. They don't have to have all played each other.

From the NFL's website on tiebreakers for 3 or more teams:
"Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)"

 

[PatsFan2]

KC could potentially go 11-1 in conference games and NE 10-2. Even if NE wins out and KC loses to Seattle, KC gets the 1 seed (assuming Houston wins out, which they likely will). This sucks. Houston could screw everything up for us.

Yep I posted this in another thread.

"The Texans have a very easy Schedule the rest of the way. Alot of easy home games they have a game @Philly but you have to wonder if the *just having fun* SB Champs haven't mailed it in. Texans remaining schedule...vs Cleveland vs Indy @Jets @Philly vs Jags. Both Indy and Cleveland are playing decent but the rest *sighs*. If healthy I think all those games are winnable for Texans... we might have to win out just to hold serve."

 

[Tunescribe]

Not really. There are 5 games left.

That's what I'm saying -- five games is about a third of the season. All it takes is one loss for wild swings in the projected playoff seedings at this early juncture. This is better revisited with two games to go.