So . . . do we clinch the AFCE with a win over the Bills next Sunday?
No.
Assuming a win next weekend but the Patriots lose all other games while the Bills win all other games (vegas odds of 20,000 to 1
)
Tie records at 10-6, split head to head, Patriots 3-3 in division Bills 4-2 in division. Bills win Division based on division record ((the division race is over as a practical matter -- the Bills' O is tragically bad))
The BFD today was the Jags losing and its effect on the race for a bye and the top rpize, #1 HFA. (for this conversation assume the Jags win remaining games).
If the Patriots-Jags both end up with the same 12-4 then the Jags get the bye due to conf records. So Patriots can go 4-1 with who they lose to being irrelevant. That clinches a bye.
For #1 HFA, (A) Best: the Patriots with their next 4 (Bills, Phins, Steelers, Bills). #1 HFA is clinched and their final game against the Jets is a half for starters/rest for anyone nursing a harsh injury. (2) Good: if the Patriots are due to lay an egg and do so in one of the next two games, obviously just beat the Steelers then finish up with a win over the Jets.
Important points:
-at this point a loss to the Steelers is likely to eliminate our shot at #1 HFA. Steelers would have to go 2-2 in their other 4 for the Patriots to get the #1 HFA.
-while I'm optimistic on the chances against the Steelers, if that win doesn't happen Patriots just win the other 4 to guarantee the bye. I like our chances in the playoffs just with a bye.
-assuming the Titans win out and knock the Jags down to WC status, the Patriots can now lose 2 games but still clinch the bye. ((the Jags v Titans final game of the year could end up an important game. My hunch is both teams go into that game at 10-5 with division on the line but the byes/HFA out of their reaches).