Idle thoughts - the resurrection edition

[patfanken]

More anxiety than usual before this game. The Pats have made slow starts the rule rather than the exception over the years, but these last 2 losses had a different tinge to them, so there was always going to be this worm in the back of your mind telling you that this may FINALLY be the year when the Pats really DO come back to the pack and the Dolphins really ARE the new kids on the block.

Well so much for that "worm". Granted we should be reminded that it wasn't perfect and there still are a lot of questions that need to be resolved if this team is really going to make a deep run to the superbowl this season. BUT....it's a start...and a damned good one at that.

38 points is impressive and Sony Michell's breakout game was exciting to see, but my first reaction when the final gun sounded was that THIS game was more about the defense than the offense if we are being honest. So it is only proper that we begin this breakdown on the defensive side of the ball and try to figure out what was different about it that caused such a complete and utter turnaround.

1. Defense - With a game and half still to be played it is important to put today's effort in context and note that with a game to go, fully ELEVEN teams have scored 30 or more points this week (and one had 29). This definitely NOT your father's NFL. 30 point games have become the rule rather the exception and while nobody should opine that the Dolphins have one of the better NFL offenses, they HAVE averaged around 24 points per game over their first 3 games before getting virtually shut out (one mercy TD) today.

Think about it - this was the kind of defensive domination you'd expect to see from the Ravens, or Vikings, NOT a defense that looked like they were coming apart at the seams over the last 2 weeks. The Dolphins only got into the Pats red zone ONCE today and that was late in the 4th when the Pats were obviously trading yards for time.

The Dolphins converted only 3 of 11 3rd downs this game and I think ALL of that came on that last drive, though I know that got one because of a holding call early in the game, (does that count as a conversion? ) Bottom line, the Pats D was virtually perfect when it came to getting off the field in this game. It was also telling that the Dolphins BEST offensive play was their first one, a seeing eye 24 yd completion that right through JJones hands.

2. Front 7 - One of the worst run defenses became dominant today against a Miami run offense that has been pretty good over the first 3 games. Then Pats allowed the Dolphins RB's only 5o yds on 17 rushes. In fact the Phins second leading rusher was Brock Osweiler with a 7 yd scramble in garbage time.

b. Who is John Simon and why was he so available to us. Sure he got a sack, but even more impressive was the fact that he tied LGuy for second most tackles in this game. Sure it was a low bar, at 5, but for a guy who was signed just this week, you have to take some notice. That's a pretty impressive debut.

c. I think consistent pressure is the best way to describe the pass rush today. Tannyhill only got to drop back 20 times today and complete just 11 passes, most of which were dump offs and underneath stuff that the Pats were allowing him to have. I think most importantly they NEVER allowed him to use his legs to extend plays or pick up easy yards. In fact he only had ONE run for zero yards. I think that for his game, that stat is more important than the 2 sacks the Pats managed. BTW- I think the hits and hurries will be relatively impressive when they come out, again because he only threw the ball 20 times. It should also be noted that the Pats seemed to use only a 3 and 4 man rush a great majority of the time today

d. It could have been KVN's best overall day as a Patriot. Not only did he recover the key turnover of the game, he seemed to be around the ball a LOT today. Just an impression I got

e. A shame that Butler and Roberts went down so late in the game. Good to see Roberts walk off eventually. Speaking of Roberts, I found it kind of revealing that on one particular play it was ROBERTS that was directing Hightower to his presnap position, rather the other way around. Could it be the pupil has become the master? (anyone else see that). Also any word on Butler and if it was serious (they ALL seem to be serious these days) is Vincent Valentine still on the PS?

3. Secondary - Gilmore really IS very good. Even his penalty was a smart one. But we expect Gilmore to be good. What improved so much was the Play of Jackson and JJones. Both were VERY consistent in their coverage and even more impressive with their tackling. JJones led the team with 8 tackles (5 solos and 3 assisted) He joins Jackson as another UDFA DB that is starting to make an impact. It should also be mentioned that Jason McCourty seemed to be more of a positive part of the group today.

4. So what caused such a dramatic turnaround on the defensive side?

a. First and foremost, I'd have to guess it was the return of Chung and Flowers. Flowers has become their best player on the front 7 and Chung might be their 2nd or 3rd best player in the secondary. They were BOTH sorely missed in Detroit and at the end of the Jags game.

b. Well, according to the announcers and reporters that Pats defense concentrated ALOT on their individual techniques and responsibilities as well as a commitment to being the more physical team this week in practice. Well it worked....this week.

c. IMHO, it seemed the Pats had a better defensive game plan this week that allowed the players to play faster and with far less hesitation than in the 2 previous weeks. They seemed to be better prepared for what Miami was trying to do to them. Miami came into the game being regarded as a team with great team speed, while the Pats were regarded to be a team WITHOUT enough speed on either side of the ball. Well if you watched this game you'd think they got that description reversed.

d. They were playing at home. I don't think it is a coincidence that defense played better at home after 2 bad games on the road. It might sound simplistic but I DO believe it was a factor.

e. Finally I'd like to believe that because there are so many new faces to integrate into this year's defensive rotations that it is a unit that will only get better with time. Remember slow starts for the D have been the rule the last few years.

f. Worries: The LB room is getting thin. With Bentley gone and Roberts out for the foreseeable future, is it time to find this year's MFlowers and ELee. Who is available?

g. On a positive note, LB's are NOT going to be much of an issue coming up since they will be playing a very good but decidedly UNBALANCED offense on Thursday. At home, Luck had to drop back 62 times to put up 34 points in a loss to Houston. So 6 DB's are likely to be the team's base D, but more on that later.

4. Offense - General comments. Nice to put up 38 points, but this offense has a LONG way to go before I will be thinking it is hitting on all cylinders. Brady isn't playing his best football. The WR's are just now starting to get in sync with their QB and they Still have to integrate Edelman and Gordon into the offense. BUT IT WAS A NICE START. A 66% 3rd down conversion rate was the offensive stat that stood out to me the most.

 

[patfanken]

5. QB - Brady had his good and bad moments in the game. Ironically his best pass of the game was dropped by a WR who made 3 remarkable catches on other balls and missed the easiest catch he had all game. I was less critical of Brady's first pick after I saw the replay. When he released the ball it looked like Hogan was taking the DB deep allowing Dorsett to come clear underneath. But the DB released Hogan to a deep S and dropped right into the path of Dorsett.

MAYBE Brady should have anticipated that coverage, MAYBE he should have seen it. But it just looked worse than it was. THAT pick was more the result of a nice scheme by Miami than a bad throw by Brady. Please remember when something goes wrong in a football game is isn't ALWAYS the fault of our players or coaches. Sometimes the other team makes a great play or game plan. On the other hand the second pick was just a lazy throw by Brady



In the end, Brady threw for a solid 65% completion rate and seemed a bit more patient to take what the Phins were giving him. Again for a lot of reasons we haven't come close to seeing the best of Tom Brady this season.

Finally, I hope the rare hit Brady absorbed on his last play teaches Josh a lesson because Brady had NO business being out there at THAT point of the game to absorb that hit.

6. OL - Miami came into the game with a very good pass rush, and while they DID lose some guys in the middle their speedy DE's were essentially erased for most of the game. Yeah, Brady got hit a few times, but for the most part Brady had time to throw and those hits were a rarity rather the rule.

But the biggest pleasant surprise from the OL today was the VAST improvement in their run blocking. I don't know if it was because of the RB's or the play design, or perhaps Dante giving them a swift kick in the ass, but for the first time this year there seemed to be actual HOLES for the RB's to get through. If THAT kind of running game is going to be a consistent factor, then this offense actually has the potential to be a superbowl worthy unit. We shall see.

7. Receivers - It might be a while before we develop a passing game that will allow Gronk to get the room he needs to become a downfield threat like we've seen over the years OR a consistent redzone producer who consistently puts up over 10 TD's a year.. Right now teams have just decided to lock him up and force someone ELSE to make plays. Today a bunch of "other guys" made some plays.

Now they can always get SOME production from Gronk even now with precise short throws like we saw today. In fact it was nice to see 4 different Receivers have more than 45 receiving yds this game. When the Pats offense is at its best there IS no #1 target. That is simply not the case right now, but with the additions of Gordon and Edelman hopefully that will soon come to pass.

Remember for the Pats to get to this position that we all are b!tching about, Edelman had to be suspended and Britt, Jordan, and Mitchelll ALL had to go down to injury. Our WR issues weren't because of bad planning, but bad injury luck. FORTUNATELY, it looks like there is a light in the tunnel.

a. Dorsett is NEVER going to be a #1 receiver, but he has already shown he can be solid adjunct and made a couple of OUTSTANDING catches including the TD one, which was positively Gronk-like. If he had made the catch on that deep ball, we'd be waxing poetic about his abilities. But even with that miss, we shouldn't underestimate his value to the team.

c. Patterson./ Gordon - Gordon will always be a slip away from being gone. He still has a LONG way to go before regains his full conditioning and any consistent comfort level with the QB. Dependable and Josh Gordon are NOT 2 words you expect to see in the same sentence, at least for THIS season. To me, Gordon is going to be a season long tease....until he isn't, one way or the other . BUT until whatever fate reveals itself about Gordon, I am REALLY liking what I'm seeing from Patterson.

His run after catch ability is first rate. His hands look to be solid. His blocking (along with ALL the WR) is above average. His motor seems to be on high for every play he's in the game. I've never seen him take a play off. To me HE's the guy who could have the most potential to be our "deep threat" of the future. Gordon WILL be the focal point to all the stories this week, but IMHO he cannot be relied on and he's here so late into the season it is unrealistic for him to be counted on to be an integral part of the offense this year.

That being said, having Gronk, Patterson, and Gordon on the field at the same time would present a WORLD of problems to any DC, especially when add the threat of Edelman plying his trade underneath. On paper it would be the best receiver group Brady has ever had, but right now, for this season, it is only a tease with potential.

d. Chis Hogan is a decent WR, but it is clear he needs to be in an offense where he isn't required to create his own separation. He needs to have it created by design. Hopefully as the season goes on, the talent around him will allow this to happen.

7. RB's. I guess we all saw why the Pats made Michell their pick at #31. He runs hard. He makes correct one cut decisions and usually gets the most out of whatever the OL gives him. His burst was a pleasure to watch. His change of direction was almost as quick as his designation from bust to superstar. What a difference a game really makes.

But I don't think we've seen the best of Sony Michell yet. Supposedly he was an accomplished receiver coming in. He's had a rough start in that area. If he can add that to what we saw in the run game, he can become a REALLY tough weapon for teams to stop.

b. I waited over 4 years and never thought I would see the day where James White would run 24 yds for a TD on a running play. He is NOT a good RB, and never will be, but he IS an outstanding receiver and has made himself into one of the top guys on the offense. I was wondering what skills he had that has made him such a good run after the catch guy. His hands are obvious, but next time you watch him notice just how fast he transitions from catching the ball with his back to the LOS, to facing it to attack the D. There is zero wasted motion. So while the first guy who hits him is likely to bring him down, his hands and his transition quickness can make you forget that inadequacy, and gives us a VERY effective player.

c. We need a 3rd RB and at first glance KBarnier looks like he might be up to the job.

8. ST's - Like the rest of you I was holding my breath every time Miami punted. . By the end of the game I was getting comfortable with CJones being back there and if he can continue to be relied on to catch the ball, I think he can become a threat. He show some real burst on a couple of punts. Feeling better now about that position and glad to have him back. I still think he can contribute in the back end on defense if called on.

9. Thursday night's game - Colts have to be hurting after blowing their game today. Luck played VERY well in that loss, but it is a HUGE advantage to being the home team in those Thursday Night games. I don't know the stats, but I'd be willing to bet that the home team has won over 70% of those game over the years. I'd love to hear the actual number from one the stat geeks?

I also love that I won't have to wait a full week to see if all the good stuff we saw this week isn't a mirage that is gone as fast as it come into being.

Summary - At least we know that that this team IS capable of playing good football on both sides of the ball, BUT only time will tell which team is the REAL one. The one we saw today, OR the one we saw the week before. The next 4 games will tell us a LOT more than the first 4. So at 2-2 the questions will remain, just as hope springs eternal after this one.

If there is one thing that has become apparent this season things can change on a dime. One week Buffalo routs a superbowl contender and this week they lose by 22 and get shut out. Go figure.

Questions, comments and YOUR observations are always welcome, so please feel free and thanks for your patience in advance for reading all of it. This certainly wasn't an "abbreviated edition"

 

[Hyped]

Absolutely agree on Brady's first INT not being that bad after seeing the replay. The DB (McCain I think) timed that perfectly or turned into the ball by sheer luck. I am only curious whether it was schemed up or not...

 

[Tony2046]

Great write up Ken. Thanks

 

[edkk323]

The biggest difference on the improvement of the D besides getting Chung and Flowers back was the O was able to have some sustained drives and allow the D to rest.

 

[edkk323]

Absolutely agree on Brady's first INT not being that bad after seeing the replay. The DB (McCain I think) timed that perfectly or turned into the ball by sheer luck. I am only curious whether it was schemed up or not...

JG was ahead by two steps on the same play. It would be so much fun seeing TB throwing the long bombs toward JG's direction once these two got comfortable with each other.

 

[mosi]

Nice write up. In the end, I think the Dolphools were not nearly as good as they thought they were and the Pats were not nearly as bad as we thought they were!

 

[luuked]

So what caused such a dramatic turnaround on the defensive side?

Execution. They won more of their individual matchups and committed fewer unforced errors. Chung and Flowers obviously helped because it put more pressure on the Dolphins.

lso any word on Butler and if it was serious (they ALL seem to be serious these days) is Vincent Valentine still on the PS?

Butler is fine. He was interviewed by multiple people giving a thumbs up:

Finally, I hope the rare hit Brady absorbed on his last play teaches Josh a lesson because Brady had NO business being out there at THAT point of the game to absorb that hit.

I disagree. This is more on Brady than on the staff. He should know that there is no point in risking health when you are up 4-5 scores in the fourth quarter at home.

MAYBE Brady should have anticipated that coverage, MAYBE he should have seen it. But it just looked worse than it was. THAT pick was more the result of a nice scheme by Miami than a bad throw by Brady.

Before we saw the replay I had the same reaction as everyone else. WTF is this throw. Then they showed the replay and it was quickly obvious that this was just a great play by the DB / good prep job by the Miami coaching staff. Definitely not on Brady or Dorsett.

If he had made the catch on that deep ball, we'd be waxing poetic about his abilities. But even with that miss, we shouldn't underestimate his value to the team.

I see people saying that it was his easiest catch of the day but lets not forget him going full speed at that time. That is an often under appreciated aspect. That being said obviously he needs make that catch.

I am REALLY liking what I'm seeing from Patterson.

His run after catch ability is first rate. His hands look to be solid. His blocking (along with ALL the WR) is above average. His motor seems to be on high for every play he's in the game.

People got excited about his TD but in reality 80% of that TD belongs to White executing his rub perfectly. All Patterson needed to do was catch a ball and run it into the endzone which, granted, is also not a given with him.

Now don't get me wrong he definitely has a place in this offense during designed plays or in space. And he might be scary in an offense where Gronk, Gordon and maybe Edelman (if he is close to what he was before) already demand additional attention. But he needs the ball in his hands to be of any impact.

But I don't think we've seen the best of Sony Michell yet. Supposedly he was an accomplished receiver coming in. He's had a rough start in that area. If he can add that to what we saw in the run game, he can become a REALLY tough weapon for teams to stop.

I don't think his receiving ability is the thing that will push him to the next level. It is all about convincing the coaching staff and Brady that he can be reliable in pass protection. I will have to look through the game again but last week they essentially never let him pass protect but it was either a run or he immediately leaked out to the side.

He is a good receiver already even if he had a slow start last week. Pass protection is a matter of trust. Once he has that and shows he can hold up against NFL level bodies this will make the offense even more unpredictable.

I also love that I won't have to wait a full week to see if all the good stuff we saw this week isn't a mirage that is gone as fast as it come into being.

Honestly I would not overvalue anything that happens on Thursday. No matter whether its another (close) shutout or the defense regressing. There is not much time for proper gameplanning or a lot of adjustment in terms of mistakes from yesterday. Those damn Thursday games are just something to win and move on.

That being said it feels like a perfect storm of great timing. Edelman will get a chance to absorb some hits and shake off some rust before the KC game and we get a nice little BYE to prepare for that game which would help Gordon and Gronk to maybe get off the injury report.

For once I can only thank the NFL scheduling folks because that is exactly what we needed.

 

[DarrylS]

Thought yesterday was an excellent example of the traditional Pats "team defense".. many players fitting different roles and mixing it up on the front 7...

Josh Gordon was more than expected at this juncture of the season, 12 days as a NEP, I pity the team when they have to face Gronk, Edelman, Gordon and White.. that could prove to be a very formidable offense..

Dorsett and Patterson look fearless, particularly if Patterson does not get his legs all tangled up... using him as a RB will make other teams think about him..

I had a huge smile after this game, as hope is not lost.. BB does know how to draft and team build, so much for the nattering nabobs of negativity who predicted this team is doomed... tough road ahead, but the unpredictability of this offense took a major step forward as did the team defense.

Not sure where we believe this team should be yet, but a huge step in the right direction.. faith is restored.

 

[PP2]

5. QB - Brady had his good and bad moments in the game. Ironically his best pass of the game was dropped by a WR who made 3 remarkable catches on other balls and missed the easiest catch he had all game. I was less critical of Brady's first pick after I saw the replay. When he released the ball it looked like Hogan was taking the DB deep allowing Dorsett to come clear underneath. But the DB released Hogan to a deep S and dropped right into the path of Dorsett.

MAYBE Brady should have anticipated that coverage, MAYBE he should have seen it. But it just looked worse than it was. THAT pick was more the result of a nice scheme by Miami than a bad throw by Brady. Please remember when something goes wrong in a football game is isn't ALWAYS the fault of our players or coaches. Sometimes the other team makes a great play or game plan. On the other hand the second pick was just a lazy throw by Brady

Ken, great job as usual.

McCain has picked off Brady 4 times in his career. He peeled off the Hogan route to undercut Dorsett- my bet is that this was a tendency that he had identified on film and was waiting for. It was just too deliberate.

 

[1960Pats]

As Oscar Madison said to Felix Unger and the Pigeon sisters... is everybody happy?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I don't know that Gronk will ever be GRONK! again on a regular basis like he was. I think he's playing a bit more conservatively (not that I really blame him), but more importantly it's pretty clear the refs are going to let DBs just grab and maul him all over the field for the rest of his career.

 

[ALP]

I did notice Roberts directing high, also found it interesting

Then the play happened and a lane was opened up for the Miami RB exactly at the spot high vacated, so maybe high knew what he was doing after all

 

[Sicilian]

The biggest difference on the improvement of the D besides getting Chung and Flowers back was the O was able to have some sustained drives and allow the D to rest.

While I agree to some extent (complimentary football just makes success or failure snowball), I feel like the D had equal measure in helping the offense in this game. It was 3-0 after the first quarter. The offense moved the ball at times, but couldn't really produce early on. It was the D that kept getting 3 and outs and giving Brady a chance to get in a rhythm. It goes both ways I think, and both units helped the other at times yesterday.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

The biggest difference on the improvement of the D besides getting Chung and Flowers back was the O was able to have some sustained drives and allow the D to rest.

Complementary football

 

[patriot1136]

going forward, I am praying for the health of this team. When our players are all available and healthy, they each seem to have specific sets of skills and fill their roles perfectly. Obviously, everything was clicking yesterday and the gameplan was spot on. It is just frustrating with injuries (i know that's football) and there are only so many street free agents available.

 

[luuked]

I don't know that Gronk will ever be GRONK! again on a regular basis like he was. I think he's playing a bit more conservatively (not that I really blame him), but more importantly it's pretty clear the refs are going to let DBs just grab and maul him all over the field for the rest of his career.

Wonder if the decrease in sudden quickness has anything to do with the work he does with Guerrero. Or maybe it is just the ankle injury that has been bothering for a bit.

 

[IllegalContact]

Miami's run offense is mediocre at best

 

[borg]

Top 5 Idle Thoughts PFK....well done

My 2 cents.....in disjointed order of course

I spent Friday night with a lifelong Dolphins fan, multi decade season ticket holder until recently......and this guy just *****ed for hours about the sucktitude of Tannehill. I can only imagine how he feels today.
Living in S Florida for 2 decades now, my greatest day was when I signed up for Sirius XM and no longer had to listen to the daily Dolphins hype and drama. "Jimmy and Danny....Danny and Jimmy"........"Zach and Jason"
Now....I catch 120 minutes of Dolphins each season when they play NE...with the occasional Red Zone look in....and life is much better. What a waste of a once great franchise. I can envision Douchebag Stephen Ross peacocking about the past few weeks believing this was the year. Too bad so sad.

Game plan:
Gut the depleted Miami interior DL....check.
When Miami adjusts, space will free up in the passing game ....check.
If the CBS announcer said one more time..."Can't give Gronk a free release from the LOS" ....ignoring Miami's feeble efforts to shore up their sieve run defense. Come on....think before yee speak.

Brady's pick down the center of the field was a fantastic scheme by Miami...which means NE's offense has a "tendency". Come on Ernie.....be better than the Dolphin's staff

On D...clearly BB didn't fear Miami's passing game which allowed NE to dominate at the LOS.
Just a great performance by NE.....and an incredibly small performance by Miami. The fish did not show up

Great to see old time football back for a game and hopefully much more. Sustained, bruising running. Clock consumption. Rested D........a coach's dream scenario.

ORDER HAS BEEN RESTORED

With JE arriving, this offense should explode. Weapons to utilize at LOS, short passing, medium passing, deep.
Four layers to defend....tantalizing.
Even I'm starting to get excited.

Indy is in trouble...game planing with JE and JG now in the mix.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I didn't get to see the whole game (because they cut out to watch other - more contested games on the National broadcast) and I wasn't home at the time, so couldn't flip to Sunday Ticket to catch the rest.

But, one thing the defense was very successful at yesterday, was putting the Dolphins in 3rd and long situations. That was a very pleasant experience. I hope the improvement on the D wasn't simply Flowers/Chung returning. If so, that puts us at a zero margin for injury going forward.

Hightower had some good decisions/plays early, but I didn't quite look for him to see if his speed remained slow. Anyone see his play/speed?