Patterson as running back

[mgteich]

Patterson is our RB after Michel, White and eventually Burkhead. He is certainly good enough to be our emergency backup RB.

Warner may or may not be kept on the roster after Bulkhead comes back. He is a garbage-time only RB (well perhaps plus a series or two if a couple of RB's are out).

 

[Soliel]

That new punter over in Green Bay is going on defense next week

 

[maineman209]

Patterson is our RB after Michel, White and eventually Burkhead. He is certainly good enough to be our emergency backup RB.

Warner may or may not be kept on the roster after Bulkhead comes back. He is a garbage-time only RB (well perhaps plus a series or two if a couple of RB's are out).

Assuming that all are 100% healthy, I'd guess that Michel and Burkhead will likely split the vast majority of the carries, though probably not 50-50. Burkhead is certainly more of a receiving threat, so their snap counts/game may be fairly even, but he is a runner first (almost 2 to 1 totes v. tgts).

White's carries/game so far this season (6.7) have been more than double his average from last season (3.1) which was his career high in carries/game. That seems highly unlikely to continue if both Michel and Burkhead are healthy. However, his snap counts seem likely to be equal to, or even somewhat greater than, those of Michel and Burkhead due to his receiving and pass-pro abilities.

I'm not certain that Patterson will be relegated to "emergency backup RB" only. Sure, he seems certain to be the "#4 RB" in this group, but he may be the best "playmaker" at #4 RB in the league. Given that he seems unlikely to be getting a large percentage of receiving targets on a regular basis, I'm guessing that he'll regularly get at least a few few totes in the running game, just to get him on the field with the ball in his hands more often (and more often than would be typical for a #4 RB). It would seem silly not to use him.

so, I'm guessing that there's likely to be a notable increase in 2RB sets, not including Develin.

It seems highly unlikely to me that Barner retains his roster spot if Burkhead makes it back. However, I think he's shown enough under the circumstances, to be more than merely an occasional use, garbage-time runner. He certainly seems much more competent than Gillislee, although that's a low bar.

 

[Coolade2]

The whole point of this thread is how Patterson has emerged within Patriots system as a RB that gives you more than the others. The issue is how innovative and creative do Patriots want to be with CP package. It's unconventional but that's a good thing in NFL where everyone knows your tendencies. If they are smart ... CP will get 15 or so carries a game until it stops working... which is unlikely since the way you get better is to keep doing it. The upside is there , so the only thing to stop it is really just wimpitude which is a concern with mcD sometimes. We shall see.

The rb heirarchy on week to week basis will change according to game plan and injury report. . You can plug in bodies in your vanilla spread playbook .

 

[maineman209]

The whole point of this thread is how Patterson has emerged within Patriots system as a RB that gives you more than the others. The issue is how innovative and creative do Patriots want to be with CP package. It's unconventional but that's a good thing in NFL where everyone knows your tendencies. If they are smart ... CP will get 15 or so carries a game until it stops working... which is unlikely since the way you get better is to keep doing it. The upside is there , so the only thing to stop it is really just wimpitude which is a concern with mcD sometimes. We shall see.

The rb heirarchy on week to week basis will change according to game plan and injury report. . You can plug in bodies in your vanilla spread playbook .

Although I agree that the usage of each RB for rushing will vary from game-to-game, it seems fairly unlikely to me that Patterson will see 15 carries in any game from here on, unless Michel sits again tomorrow @TEN, or if the Pats ease Michel back with 8-10 carries. Even then, it might be the last time Patterson sees even double-digit carries for the rest of the season, unless the offense goes "Full Chip Kelly" after the BYE (not entirely impossible).

The Pats typically average about 26 RB-carries/game (excludes Brady's "runs", Edelman's sweeps, and QB kneeldowns that bring total rushing attempts up to about 29/game, on average).

Since 2009, Pats' "lead RBs" have averaged about 12 carries/game. The exceptions have been Blount (2016) and Ridley (2012), who each averaged about 18/game without significantly increasing total RB carries/game.

Michel, when healthy, was averaging about 16 carries/game, and saw 24 versus the Chiefs, so he seemed to be nearing the Blount-Ridley usage level before getting hurt.

White has been averaging almost 7/game, which is more than double his typical annual rushing usage of 2-3/game.

When healthy, Burkhead has averaged 6-8 carries/game.

RECENT RB-carry distributions:
- Against KCY: Michel = 24, White = 6, Barner = 3 (Edelman & CP 1 sweep each)
- At the Bears: White = 11, Barner = 10, Michel = 4* (+ CP sweep and Brady 6yd run).
- At the Bills: CP = 10, White = 8, Barner = 2 (+Edelman's 2 sweeps and an 8yd sprint by Brady).
- Against GBY: White = 12, CP = 11, Barner = 1 (Edelman kicked in 2 sweeps).
(* Michel hurt his knee early that game).

Assuming that Burkhead is back for wk-13 v. MIN (and that everybody stays healthy), my guess is that the typical RB-carry distribution might be something like:
- Michel = 14-16
- Burkhead = 4-8
- Patterson = 4-8
- White = 2-4

 

[RobertWeathers]

Although I agree that the usage of each RB for rushing will vary from game-to-game, it seems fairly unlikely to me that Patterson will see 15 carries in any game from here on, unless Michel sits again tomorrow @TEN, or if the Pats ease Michel back with 8-10 carries. Even then, it might be the last time Patterson sees even double-digit carries for the rest of the season, unless the offense goes "Full Chip Kelly" after the BYE (not entirely impossible).

The Pats typically average about 26 RB-carries/game (excludes Brady's "runs", Edelman's sweeps, and QB kneeldowns that bring total rushing attempts up to about 29/game, on average).

Since 2009, Pats' "lead RBs" have averaged about 12 carries/game. The exceptions have been Blount (2016) and Ridley (2012), who each averaged about 18/game without significantly increasing total RB carries/game.

Michel, when healthy, was averaging about 16 carries/game, and saw 24 versus the Chiefs, so he seemed to be nearing the Blount-Ridley usage level before getting hurt.

White has been averaging almost 7/game, which is more than double his typical annual rushing usage of 2-3/game.

When healthy, Burkhead has averaged 6-8 carries/game.

RECENT RB-carry distributions:
- Against KCY: Michel = 24, White = 6, Barner = 3 (Edelman & CP 1 sweep each)
- At the Bears: White = 11, Barner = 10, Michel = 4* (+ CP sweep and Brady 6yd run).
- At the Bills: CP = 10, White = 8, Barner = 2 (+Edelman's 2 sweeps and an 8yd sprint by Brady).
- Against GBY: White = 12, CP = 11, Barner = 1 (Edelman kicked in 2 sweeps).
(* Michel hurt his knee early that game).

Assuming that Burkhead is back for wk-13 v. MIN (and that everybody stays healthy), my guess is that the typical RB-carry distribution might be something like:
- Michel = 14-16
- Burkhead = 4-8
- Patterson = 4-8
- White = 2-4

It'll be interesting to see the carry split between CP and Burk.

 

[maineman209]

It'll be interesting to see the carry split between CP and Burk.

There's a usage symmetry to Burkhead's career that I found somewhat interesting:

Cinci = 87 carries/45 tgts (42 games)
Pats = 88 carries/42 tgts (13 games, so far)

Roughly a 2:1 carry-tgt ratio for both teams ... 6.77 carries/game, 3.23 tgts/game for the Pats.

In Patterson's previous career, he had a carry-tgt ratio of about 1:6. Even before his rushing breakout in the last two games, his ratio with the Pats was about 1:2.

Now, it's about 1.8:1 .... roughly Burkhead range.

A Patterson-Burkhead combo in the backfield with Gronk or Allen doing some wham-blocking could make play-action deadly.

 

[Coolade2]

Although I agree that the usage of each RB for rushing will vary from game-to-game, it seems fairly unlikely to me that Patterson will see 15 carries in any game from here on, unless Michel sits again tomorrow @TEN, or if the Pats ease Michel back with 8-10 carries. Even then, it might be the last time Patterson sees even double-digit carries for the rest of the season, unless the offense goes "Full Chip Kelly" after the BYE (not entirely impossible).

The Pats typically average about 26 RB-carries/game (excludes Brady's "runs", Edelman's sweeps, and QB kneeldowns that bring total rushing attempts up to about 29/game, on average).

Since 2009, Pats' "lead RBs" have averaged about 12 carries/game. The exceptions have been Blount (2016) and Ridley (2012), who each averaged about 18/game without significantly increasing total RB carries/game.

Michel, when healthy, was averaging about 16 carries/game, and saw 24 versus the Chiefs, so he seemed to be nearing the Blount-Ridley usage level before getting hurt.

White has been averaging almost 7/game, which is more than double his typical annual rushing usage of 2-3/game.

When healthy, Burkhead has averaged 6-8 carries/game.

RECENT RB-carry distributions:
- Against KCY: Michel = 24, White = 6, Barner = 3 (Edelman & CP 1 sweep each)
- At the Bears: White = 11, Barner = 10, Michel = 4* (+ CP sweep and Brady 6yd run).
- At the Bills: CP = 10, White = 8, Barner = 2 (+Edelman's 2 sweeps and an 8yd sprint by Brady).
- Against GBY: White = 12, CP = 11, Barner = 1 (Edelman kicked in 2 sweeps).
(* Michel hurt his knee early that game).

Assuming that Burkhead is back for wk-13 v. MIN (and that everybody stays healthy), my guess is that the typical RB-carry distribution might be something like:
- Michel = 14-16
- Burkhead = 4-8
- Patterson = 4-8
- White = 2-4

Your post is based on historical patterns while I'm stressing the advantage of shifting against that . History is tendencies, which defenses devour upon. You put Patterson back there and they literally are clueless. On their proverbial back foot. It's really just perfect football. Line up toss sweep downhill.. left or right. Green Bay won multiple championships with that play... just block it and watch it go.

Another point is since CP has flashed in the bacfield pats are winning games nicely. It's just another way of dominating opponents. Just do it. mcD...

 

[maineman209]

Your post is based on historical patterns while I'm stressing the advantage of shifting against that . History is tendencies, which defenses devour upon. You put Patterson back there and they literally are clueless. On their proverbial back foot. It's really just perfect football. Line up toss sweep downhill.. left or right. Green Bay won multiple championships with that play... just block it and watch it go.

Another point is since CP has flashed in the bacfield pats are winning games nicely. It's just another way of dominating opponents. Just do it. mcD...

It's not necessary to make radial changes to historical patterns to break tendencies. If the Pats start using Patterson at RB as much as you suggest, they're merely creating a new tendency that defenses will figure out pretty quickly.

OTOH, integrating Patterson and his abilities into what appears to be a "normal" pattern can create dozens of different formations and actions that will take defenses a lot longer to figure out an counter. It's all about expanding the permutations, not merely altering existing ones.

 

[Soliel]

This weeks trick will be Burkhead running every down!

 

[Coolade2]

It's not necessary to make radial changes to historical patterns to break tendencies. If the Pats start using Patterson at RB as much as you suggest, they're merely creating a new tendency that defenses will figure out pretty quickly.

OTOH, integrating Patterson and his abilities into what appears to be a "normal" pattern can create dozens of different formations and actions that will take defenses a lot longer to figure out an counter. It's all about expanding the permutations, not merely altering existing ones.

Defenses can adjust but I expect that will open up the passing game. Any time you can dominate by running ball it's good , especially with big fast guy who can take it to the house.. since defense against Brady will want to be loaded against the passing game... meaning the kind of players CP can run over or fly past. This is major weapon pats have now... And 15 or so carries is a moderate increase.

 

[Coolade2]

There you go... wimpitude rules, Brady off , no Patterson except a couple play action fakes which were successful. So question is why TF isn't this bigger part of offense...? Cuz offense kinda sucked without it.

 

[Soliel]

Should have kept handing off to Patterson.