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Idle thoughts: the stretch run edition


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While the LBs completion % has been fairly high (about the same for the safeties as a group), the YPC allowed by the LBs has been minimal. They've also been targeted a lot less (or not tasked with coverage as often) than the DBs, on a per-snap-played basis.
Agree.

Part of me thinks he will be used with the more speedy players who come out of the backfield.
 
1. That was the worst officiated game since the last time we played Carolina. The two holding penalties on Brown were ridiculous by today's standards. One he barely touched the guy. The White pick was also awful. He was actually within the one yard limit of the LOS where blocking is allowed and then all he did was square up. My god the Rams/Chiefs game the receivers were blocking 10 yards downfield and they weren't calling OPIs.

2. JE11 is one tough bastard. I thought he might have separated his shoulder or broken his collarbone on that one. This Patriots team is thin after the first layer. They cannot afford injuries.

3. Having the OL back intact made a huge difference. If Wynn hadn't gotten hurt and was at LG this line when healthy could be dominant. Is it something in the way Andrews plays or what I'm not sure but it seems like every week a defender is trying to twist his neck off.

4. 90% of Gronk still GOAT-LIKE. Just so impactful in both the running and passing games. He better be first ballot HOF or it's pure BS. I'm sure Gonzalez will have better volume stats at the end still but he couldn't block a cornerback and at their peaks Gronk blows him away as a receiver as well.

5. Gilmore and Gordon had their heads screwed back on right again. They cannot have mental lapse games again. Whatever it takes to keep them playing at a pro-bowl level and not like the Titanic fail of two weeks ago.

6. People have complained about McCourty and Chung but to me they've been the glue and have played terrific again this year.

7. Looking ahead to teams who could and could not knockout the Chiefs if they hold onto the #1 seed.

Cannot: Bengals, Colts.
1/100: Ravens, Titans, Texans.
Maybe: Chargers - They've lost 9 straight games to the Chiefs including earlier this year in LA. The funny thing about the streak is the Chargers have played them tougher overall in KC than at home. The Chargers have the talent to get it done but they're the Chargers.

Denver - They've lost 7 in a row but most of them have been really close including this year losing by 4 and 7. Denver at 5-6 has losses to KC as previous mention plus 3 point to the Rams and 2 points to the Texans. They've also beaten Pittsburgh and the Chargers in the past two weeks. They have remaining @Cinn, @SF, Cleveland, @Oak and LAC left. I think worst case they go 4-1 in their last 5 and they could run the table. I think their chances on the 6 seed are pretty good.

Really good shot: Pitt almost pulled it off earlier this year when they were playing like crap and they've gone into KC in the past and beaten them in both the regular season and playoffs.

8. KC has 3 loseable games left. Baltimore, LA and @Seattle. I think all three need TO assistance to get it done.

9. It's funny but I don't think Houston has the makings to beat most of the other contenders but because of the mobile QB I absolutely hate the matchup for the Patriots. I'd much rather play the Steelers or Chargers who are better teams. KC is still the team I'd like to see the least.

10. Big Chargers fan this coming weekend as I am every weekend against whoever is playing the Steelers.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers got the 4th seed
 
Yea the only bad play I can remember for JMac was the crossing route in the 1st 1/2.

I think Jackson will start next year.

JJ was not good yesterday. Seemed like a step behind. I think Dawson gets significant time this week in practice and in the game.

Depends on what you mean by "significant snaps" in the game. The slot DB (where Dawson says he's been practicing) is a CB about 55% of the D-snaps/game and a safety about 55% (overlap from when they're in "dime"). "Get your feet wet" snap count level appears to be around 10%-15% of total D-snaps, which could be 6-12 snaps.

How big a percentage Dawson gets in his debut probably also depends on how "exotic" the coverage schemes are intended to be for that game. They seemed to be fairly simple against the Jets - lotta zone alternating with some pattern-matching and some man coverage. The scheme may be more complex and variable against Cousins,in which case, Dawson may see fewer snaps (if any).

Dawson has only had 14 total practices with the team since the beginning of the regular season. Jackson has been practicing straight through and also now has 131 game snaps under his belt.

I'd say that Dawson playing half the CB snaps in the slot (~20-25 snaps) against Minny would be "significant", and very surprising to me.
 
1. That was the worst officiated game since the last time we played Carolina. The two holding penalties on Brown were ridiculous by today's standards. One he barely touched the guy. The White pick was also awful. He was actually within the one yard limit of the LOS where blocking is allowed and then all he did was square up. My god the Rams/Chiefs game the receivers were blocking 10 yards downfield and they weren't calling OPIs.

2. JE11 is one tough bastard. I thought he might have separated his shoulder or broken his collarbone on that one. This Patriots team is thin after the first layer. They cannot afford injuries.

3. Having the OL back intact made a huge difference. If Wynn hadn't gotten hurt and was at LG this line when healthy could be dominant. Is it something in the way Andrews plays or what I'm not sure but it seems like every week a defender is trying to twist his neck off.

4. 90% of Gronk still GOAT-LIKE. Just so impactful in both the running and passing games. He better be first ballot HOF or it's pure BS. I'm sure Gonzalez will have better volume stats at the end still but he couldn't block a cornerback and at their peaks Gronk blows him away as a receiver as well.

5. Gilmore and Gordon had their heads screwed back on right again. They cannot have mental lapse games again. Whatever it takes to keep them playing at a pro-bowl level and not like the Titanic fail of two weeks ago.

6. People have complained about McCourty and Chung but to me they've been the glue and have played terrific again this year.

7. Looking ahead to teams who could and could not knockout the Chiefs if they hold onto the #1 seed.

Cannot: Bengals, Colts.
1/100: Ravens, Titans, Texans.
Maybe: Chargers - They've lost 9 straight games to the Chiefs including earlier this year in LA. The funny thing about the streak is the Chargers have played them tougher overall in KC than at home. The Chargers have the talent to get it done but they're the Chargers.

Denver - They've lost 7 in a row but most of them have been really close including this year losing by 4 and 7. Denver at 5-6 has losses to KC as previous mention plus 3 point to the Rams and 2 points to the Texans. They've also beaten Pittsburgh and the Chargers in the past two weeks. They have remaining @Cinn, @SF, Cleveland, @Oak and LAC left. I think worst case they go 4-1 in their last 5 and they could run the table. I think their chances on the 6 seed are pretty good.

Really good shot: Pitt almost pulled it off earlier this year when they were playing like crap and they've gone into KC in the past and beaten them in both the regular season and playoffs.

8. KC has 3 loseable games left. Baltimore, LA and @Seattle. I think all three need TO assistance to get it done.

9. It's funny but I don't think Houston has the makings to beat most of the other contenders but because of the mobile QB I absolutely hate the matchup for the Patriots. I'd much rather play the Steelers or Chargers who are better teams. KC is still the team I'd like to see the least.

10. Big Chargers fan this coming weekend as I am every weekend against whoever is playing the Steelers.

KC @ Seattle will be tough for the chiefs. That’s where I think they’ll lose.
 
Did Johnathan Jones get benched or Jason McCourty get benched? We saw some J.C. Jackson in there.....I felt like neither of Jones and McCourty played that well....
 
Depends on what you mean by "significant snaps" in the game. The slot DB (where Dawson says he's been practicing) is a CB about 55% of the D-snaps/game and a safety about 55% (overlap from when they're in "dime"). "Get your feet wet" snap count level appears to be around 10%-15% of total D-snaps, which could be 6-12 snaps.

How big a percentage Dawson gets in his debut probably also depends on how "exotic" the coverage schemes are intended to be for that game. They seemed to be fairly simple against the Jets - lotta zone alternating with some pattern-matching and some man coverage. The scheme may be more complex and variable against Cousins,in which case, Dawson may see fewer snaps (if any).

Dawson has only had 14 total practices with the team since the beginning of the regular season. Jackson has been practicing straight through and also now has 131 game snaps under his belt.

I'd say that Dawson playing half the CB snaps in the slot (~20-25 snaps) against Minny would be "significant", and very surprising to me.
I deem 20+ as significant.
 
Was actually just thinking that I hope Obi can assist us in the speed/athleticism department.

 
Moot. Moot point. Mute doesn't make sense when you know what the word "moot" means.

moot
/mo͞ot/
adjective
  1. subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty, and typically not admitting of a final decision.
    "whether the temperature rise was mainly due to the greenhouse effect was a moot point"
 
KC @ Seattle will be tough for the chiefs. That’s where I think they’ll lose.

I tend to agree. The Chargers just find ways to lose big games and Baltimore on the road and lacking a great offense will eventually fall behind.

Seattle's losses: 3 points @ Denver, 7 points @ Chicago, 2 points Rams, 8 points Chargers, 5 points @ Rams. 5 single score games and by the time it's all said and done 4 playoff locks and Denver probably gets in based on much weaker schedule remaining than they played. Denver likewise is better than their record suggests.
 
Last edited:
Moot. Moot point. Mute doesn't make sense when you know what the word "moot" means.

moot
/mo͞ot/
adjective
  1. subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty, and typically not admitting of a final decision.
    "whether the temperature rise was mainly due to the greenhouse effect was a moot point"

I wish people would start making mute points. :)
 
Did Johnathan Jones get benched or Jason McCourty get benched? We saw some J.C. Jackson in there.....I felt like neither of Jones and McCourty played that well....
Jones was benched after allowing 3 catches (including the TD) on just 13 snaps. J-Mac played every snap.
 
My thoughts:

a.) When is Clayborn going to stop rushing past the QB? That cost us two 3rd down stops yesterday, IMO.

b.) I found it interesting that JC Jackson was in for Jonathan Jones late in the game yesterday given J.Jones' impending FA.

c.) Brady completed passes to Dorsett & Hogan yesterday. We need more of that, IMO.

d.) What is up with Brady throwing to James White in the flat on the left side? Looks like he has thrown ground balls for 2 games now when throwing in that area. Must be a footwork issue.

e.) Jacob Hollister isn't a blocker...and got away with a hold or two, IMO. Damn, Dwayne Allen might be more valuable than I thought.

f.) Sony Michel really makes a difference....other RB's we have or had would have gone down as soon as they hit the LOS....but Michel adds 2-3 yards here and there just by bouncing around and finding openings in the 2nd level.

g.) Trent Brown had some holds yesterday....but otherwise it was good to see the full OL play together.

h.) J.Mac got beat once yesterday...this bears watching.

i.) Can't wait to see what Duke Dawson brings to the table and whether he will be a corner or a safety.

j.) Kick off coverage was meh...but we won some by tackling guys before the 25 yard line.

k.) We now enter the crucial stage of our schedule...MIN, @Mia, @PIT. A 2-1 run here would be HUGE....but it is possible that we go 1-2 and are 9-5 with two home games to play.

l.) I don't even feel that this team has played its best football yet....I'd like to see us click on offense better...score early...be better in the red area.... and defensively...it is what it is...and ST's need to be better.....
 
OK we opened up the post-Thanksgiving part of the season. This is the one where we would like to think the season long operation is finally coming together and a 5-1, 6-o kind of finish would be likely. Today was was a decent first step on the stretch run to the playoffs. But was it an indicator of great things to come? I don't think so. I think it was a solid road win against a bad team. It really didn't answer many of the questions we've been looking at this entire season.

Some questions WERE answered, good AND bad. Having a balanced running attack has a bigger impact than having Gronk back. THOUGH it was certainly good to have Gronk back. ;)

When Brady spreads the ball around the offense runs smoother and more efficiently, than when he is trying to force feed certain receivers the ball.

On the negative side, it is clear (at least to me) that unless we are using some form of blitz, we are never going to get pressure on any QB we face, at least not this year.

Josh McDaniels has had a great deal to do with all the success the Pats offense has had over the last decade. And yet sometimes he makes play calls that leave me speechless in frustration. With the Pats needing 4 yds in 2 plays in the red zone, he force fed 2 incomplete passes to Gronk when there MUST have been some other options. Now Brady might have had some blame in this himself, but it seemed to me like it was predetermined that the ball was going to Gronk despite whatever coverage they had on him.

This frosted my you know what. We were running decent and we do the old "chuck it up " play and both passes were bad.

Then later in the half when they were trying to milk the ball, on 3rd and 4 the Pats refused to throw even a conservative pass and wound up giving up 3 points to the Jets. I can remember when there was NO area of the field where the Pats were afraid to pass the ball, and against the good teams. These were the freakin' Jets.

Its not like these seeming brain farts happen all the time, but enough to make me want to comment on them. But so much for my need to vent a bit, let's break down win #8 and see what it brings.

1. Offense - General thoughts - I was a bit disappointed in the offense mostly because you'd think that if you can gain 500 yds of offense, and have 7 or 8 plays that go over 20 yds that you'd have more than 27 points. Now the penalties had a LOT to do with this lack of efficiency, but clearly the offense has a lot of room to grow....hopefully.

That being said, I just read where the Steelers had over 550 yds of offense and yet only put up 17 points. in their loss to Denver. :eek: But like I said in a thread earlier this week, unfortunately, the Steelers on the road are a different team than at home. With Rothlessberger that is especially true.

Like I said when Brady spreads the ball around the offense moves better. Great to see Hogan get some looks. Great to see Gordon go 5 catches on 5 targets, none of which were forced. Great to see Edelman suddenly reappear in the middle of the defense. As a whole this is as good a receiving group as we've had for a while, lets use ALL of them.

2. QB - Brady looked a bit shaky to start the game, but settled in later to have what could be called a decent game for him.Clearly missing so much practice time this week affected him early. He completed 2 thirds of his passes and had no picks. I though he held on the the ball longer this game than usual. I wonder what the Jets were showing him that forced him to throw so many balls to his 2nd and 3rd options. Perhaps we'll learn more in the "rewatch thread".

3. OL - Good job in pass protection, though Brady seemed to get hit more than usual, he wasn't sacked. The fact Brady held on to the ball longer than usual accounted for the extra hits he took. For all his accolades, Brady most underrated quality is his toughness. He is as tough as Bledsoe or Grogan. High praise indeed

Great job in the run game. There were some GAPING holes Jets D. Much credit has to go to Josh because some of the play designs were excellent. I don't know where the Jets ranked against the run, but it seemed that their best players were their LB's and DL as well as JAdams, who is a real stud vs the run. So it wasn't like they were running against bad players. They just executed the schemes beautifully.

4. RB's - Like I said earlier, Michel's return turned out to be much more impactful than Gronks. He doesn't stun me with cuts or moves, but he has a great knack for seeing any gaps in the D and slithering through. I will have to see him create more on his own before he will justify that first round pick for me. BUT in the meantime I'm fine with him picking up all of what's there.

What concerns me the most is that he's really the ONLY RB we have on the roster. White had a great day, but if he's the guy you are counting to be your primary RUNNING back for a game, then you are going to be in trouble to generate any consistent running attack. We REALLY need to add so help to that room.

It only goes to show you how fragile teams are on paper. At the beginning of the season it seemed we had TOO many quality RB's, and then just like that, we have been down to 2 for most of the season, and CLEARLY there is a need for a bigger back for the red zone/GL areas.

5. Receivers - Great to see Gronk get back into the end zone. That was a monster catch and a very timely one at that. He also make a good play to keep Brady from throwing a pick.

Now just a media aside. I find it curious how the media has transitioned from how Gronk was looking so fast and athletic during TC and early in the season, to how now Gronk is just a shadow of his formerly great self and unlikely to be back in 2019. Just sayin'

Edelman had his first game in while where he was controlling the middle of the field and picking up key first downs and chunk yards. I'd like to see him targeted more. Maybe that will happen now that Gronk is back.

Hogan reappeared for 2 of those 20+ yd plays, wide open on both patterns....and then he was gone, never to be targeted again. Maybe they are saving him for the Pittsburgh game. ;)

Gordon had in my mind, his best game as a Patriot. His production seemed more within the game plan, and his efficiency was perfect, as well as contributing a key 3rd down catch that was remarkable. His hands are really good, I mean Jerry Rice good.

Hogan targeted twice catch two, Dorsett targeted twice caught two. Both guys were wide open on their routes.

6, Defense- General thoughts - Hard to categorize this game. On one hand they held the Jets to 13 points. On the other they made the 39 year old Josh McCown look like a great NFL QB.....AGAIN. Christ, McCown was the Jets second leading rusher. ;)

Well it wasn't THAT good, it just seemed that way. The Pats did hold him to a 56% completion rate and did well on 3rd down, AND stopped the run VERY well, while playing mostly nickel and dime defenses. Still the fact they couldn't pressure the Jets weak OL without blitzing was concerning dor down the road.

7. Front-Seven- I don't think I need to mention the non-blitz pass rush again. On the other hand, how this group played the Jets running attack in mostly nickel and dime packages WAS a positive. They only allowed 72 rushing yards and 25 of them came from McCown. It was a good day.

I also thought the LB's had a good day tackling. However Hightower was credited with only one tackle and one QB hit for the game. NOT what I'm looking for from one of the highest paid guys on defense.

Van Noy is the playmaker now.

8. Secondary - More great work from Gilmore, and Chung. Chung had 13 tackles, 7 of them solo. So while the announcers hyped the excellent Jamal Adams all game, Patrick Chung very quietly outproduced him. According to PFF, Gilmore shut out the dangerous Robbie Anderson on 4 targets as well as making plays on other Jet receivers. JMcCourty gave up some catches that I saw. One big one came on a well designed route that was a simply well executed.

Most of the early yards came against mostly zone coverages underneath, while some of the later yards came after the Pats had a 14 point lead. Overall I thought the coverage was pretty good. Bottom line, when the Jets protected McCown he completed 7o% of his passes, when under pressure that dropped to about half that.

I think the secondary is the strength of this defense, and its starting base (JMcCourty, DMcCourty, Chung, Gilmore and Harmon are as solid as you can get. I think the key to this secondary to improve will be the development of JC Jackson and JJones. If we are going to need to blitz to create pressure, then we are going to need a LOT of DB's to cover, and cover well.

I'm not a big fan of the safeties with the exception of Chung who I believe is one of our best defensive players. We need improved deep safety play.

8. Special teams - One good KO coverage, one bad one. Not good enough. Great punting job by Ryan Allen, not only did he average 46 yds, his directional punting kept any run backs a mute point.
The Ghost made his gimmees so he did his job as well. Nice job by this group.

Obi Malifanu made his debut and had a ST's tackle. Welcome home, Obi. We'll need you to make an impact in the secondary...next year.

9. General Comments

a. The officials made this game almost unwatchable for most of the first half. If I had been a casual fan of the game, I'd have turned it off or switched to another. I truly believe that at half time they got a call and were told only to call the obvious penalties, because they were truly killing the game.

b. This crew has called the most penalties of any officiating crew in the league, so this shouldn't have been a surprise. So the responsibility should fall on the league to get this group more training or split them up. Forget that they were singlehandledly keeping the Jets in this game, they were just so inconsistent on what they would call and not call.

c. After today's loss to the Browns, think about being a Bengals fan knowing that the likely successor to Marvin Lewis is Hue Jackson. :eek: Now THAT has to rival even a Jet fan's pain. ;)

d. We've now seen 11 games of the season and many of the questions were were asking at the start of year are still unanswered. Our record says we are 8-3 with the 2nd best results in the conference so far. We hold a bye well within our grasp. Yet somehow this team doesn't inspire the same confidence in us that other recent teams have done. Some very average teams have beaten us. Think about our 3 losses have come against 2 losing teams (Lions and Jags) and the 3rd is barely at .500. Definitely not what you'd expect.

But Bill Parcell's tells us that "you are what your record says your are", so that's a good thing...I guess. ;)

OK, done by midnight. I win. Please add your observations and comments and we'll see where the conversation takes us in the morning.
 
My thoughts:

a.) When is Clayborn going to stop rushing past the QB? That cost us two 3rd down stops yesterday, IMO.

b.) I found it interesting that JC Jackson was in for Jonathan Jones late in the game yesterday given J.Jones' impending FA.

c.) Brady completed passes to Dorsett & Hogan yesterday. We need more of that, IMO.

d.) What is up with Brady throwing to James White in the flat on the left side? Looks like he has thrown ground balls for 2 games now when throwing in that area. Must be a footwork issue.

e.) Jacob Hollister isn't a blocker...and got away with a hold or two, IMO. Damn, Dwayne Allen might be more valuable than I thought.

f.) Sony Michel really makes a difference....other RB's we have or had would have gone down as soon as they hit the LOS....but Michel adds 2-3 yards here and there just by bouncing around and finding openings in the 2nd level.

g.) Trent Brown had some holds yesterday....but otherwise it was good to see the full OL play together.

h.) J.Mac got beat once yesterday...this bears watching.

i.) Can't wait to see what Duke Dawson brings to the table and whether he will be a corner or a safety.

j.) Kick off coverage was meh...but we won some by tackling guys before the 25 yard line.

k.) We now enter the crucial stage of our schedule...MIN, @Mia, @PIT. A 2-1 run here would be HUGE....but it is possible that we go 1-2 and are 9-5 with two home games to play.

l.) I don't even feel that this team has played its best football yet....I'd like to see us click on offense better...score early...be better in the red area.... and defensively...it is what it is...and ST's need to be better.....

a) On at least one occasion yesterday, Clayborn got pushed behind the QB with the LT's had permanently attached to Clayborn's grill (no flag).

b) JJ has had a rough patch the past two games. Before that, he was very good. Also, he's RFA in 2019.

d) At least once v. TEN, Brady tried to throw while falling backwards with pressure in his face from two free rushers. Yesterday, it appeared that he was deliberately throwing wide to White on at least two occasions to avoid a pick-six from tight coverage.

e) The major improvement in Hollister's blocking this season is that, last year, he didn't even know who to hold.

g) Trent wasn't doing anything different yesterday from what he usually does. The Hochuli crew was just calling it.

h) It's noteworthy that JMac getting beat once is noteworthy.

l) Agree 100% . :)
 
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