Pats vs. Rams Superbowl pre-game analysis

[carmelo15]

It cooks needed hill treatment he would be playing for us and not LA. I’d put JC Jackson on him with safety over the top but not doubling

 

[ivanvamp]

In the 10 games with Talib, the Rams D is allowing 18.3 ppg, which would be 3rd in the league. An elite corner can make or break a defense, and the Rams D has been very good when Talib plays.

It still kills me that the Pats had Talib for two playoff runs and he got hurt in both AFCCGs and yet here he is playing for the Rams, healthy, in the SB against the Pats. Ugh.

 

[VectorPrime]

The Rams played the crap of the league down the stretch so I’m not sure if their defense got that much better.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I'd like to see the exact same plan we had against hill for Cooks. Jon Jones + safety, Gilmore on Woods, JC on their 3rd WR. Absolutely do not let their running backs beat us. Force Goff to win throwing against our secondary

 

[Steve102]

Control the clock, keep their D on the field, get the DL gassed so when and if Brady needs to get surgical, Donald and Suh are less of a factor. I think we will see a similar O game plan to what we saw last week. Long, time consuming drives.

 

[PP2]

Not sure if I posted this already, apologies if I did. As Lazar points out, it's critical for the point man at the line to be jammed so that he doesn't set picks.

This strikes at the heart of something that we struggle with, from time to time- condensed bunches, trips right/left and losing guys coming out of the bunches/stacks.

Film Review: How Will the Patriots Defend Rams Bunch Formations? | CLNS Media

 

[PP2]

 

[luuked]

The problem with doubling Cooks is you lose a lot man in the box. OK against Damien Williams, less OK against the Rams (or Kareem Hunt when the Chiefs had him). It will be interesting to see what Bill does, I'd try to help against the run.

When people say double Cooks lets keep in mind that this doesn't mean we play it even 80% of the time like that. It will be key downs + a couple thrown in now and then to keep Goff guessing. I would be surprised if Cooks ends up being double more than 50% of the time.

 

[Hyped]

Some research I just did (pasted below):

Team Records For 2018:
Rams' record vs. common opponents: W vs. Chargers, W vs. Vikings, W vs. Chiefs, W vs. Packers, W @ Lions, and L @ Bears. Total: 5-1
Pats' record vs. common opponents: L vs. Lions, W vs. Chiefs, W @ Bears, W vs. Packers, W vs. Vikings, W vs. Chargers, and W @ Chiefs. Total 6-1

Rams' record vs. 2018 playoff teams: W vs. Chargers, W @ Seahawks, L @ Saints, W vs. Seahawks, W vs. Chiefs, L @ Bears, L vs. Eagles, W vs. Cowboys, and W @ Saints. Total: 6-3
Pats' record vs. 2018 playoff teams: W vs. Texans, W vs. Colts, W @ Bears, W vs. Chiefs, W vs. Chargers, and W @ Chiefs. Total: 6-0

Rams' record vs. 2018 teams above .500: W vs. Chargers, W vs. Vikings, W @ Seahawks, L @ Saints W vs. Seahawks, W vs. Chiefs, L @ Bears, L vs. Eagles, W vs. Cowboys, and W @ Saints. Total: 7-3
Pats' records vs. 2018 teams above .500: W vs. Texans, W vs. Colts, W @ Bears, W vs. Chiefs, L @ Titans, W vs. Vikings, L @ Steelers, W vs. Chargers, and W @ Chiefs. Total: 7-2

RAMS OFFENSIVE LINE:

Per PFF (as of week 17): After such a hot start, the Rams offensive line getting exposed over the second half of the season was one of the more significant reasons for their offensive lull. Most notably, center John Sullivan’s play fell off a cliff down the stretch. After allowing four pressures through the first seven games, he allowed 32 over the last nine. Still, it’s one of the few lines in the NFL to have five starters play over 1,000 snaps.

Per Football Outsiders: #1 run blocking and #6 pass protection. Link: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

PFF's top 25 OL Men For 2018 has 3 Rams listed at #10 (Havenstein), #11 (Withworth), and #23 (Blythe). Link: Top 25 offensive linemen of the 2018 NFL season | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

Summary per PFF: Withworth is "Good", Saffold is "Above Average", Sullivan is "Below Average", Blythe is "Above Average", and Havenstein is "Good".

(For reference) PATS OFFENSIVE LINE:
Per PFF (as of week 17): Another year, another well-oiled machine blocking in New England. Shaq Mason finished the season as PFF’s All-Pro right guard and all five starters were among the top-75 graded offensive linemen in the league.

Per Football Outsiders: #3 run blocking and #1 pass protection. Link: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

PFF's top 25 OL Men For 2018 has 1 Patriot (Mason) listed at #7. Link: Top 25 offensive linemen of the 2018 NFL season | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

Summary per PFF: Brown is "Above Average", Thuney is "Above Average", Andrews is "Above Average", Mason is "Good", and Cannon is "Above Average".

RAMS DEFENSE:

RAMS DL (Per PFF): Brockers (Above Average), Suh (Good), Donald (Elite). Dante Fowler (Not starter, but Above Average), Lawer (Above Average), Franklin-Myers (Average), and Westbrooks (Below Average),

Rams LB (Per PFF): Dante Fowler/M.Longacre (Will, Above Average ), Ebukam (Sam, Did not start NFCCG, Above Average), Littleton (Inside, Above Average ), Barron (Inside, Below Average), Wilson (Average), and Hager (Above Average).

Rams Secondary (Per PFF): Peters (Average), Talib (Above Average), Robey (Good), T. Hill (Average) Shields (Average), Johnson (Good), Joyner (Above Average), Countess (Above Average), & Christian (Average).
Summary: Per the gamebook for the NFCCG on NFL.com, the Rams defense opened in a 3-3-5 nickel look with Brockers, Suh, and Donald on the DL. Fowler, Littleton, and Barron playing LB (Fowler probably was on the DL). Talib, Peters, Robey, Johnson, and Joyner in the secondary.

Here are the numbers from profootball reference: 2018 Los Angeles Rams Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Highlights:
- Aaron Donald had 41 solo tackles, 18 assisted tackles, 25 TFLs, 41 QB hits, and 20.5 sacks!
- Suh was 2nd in QB hits with 19 and had 4.5 sacks.

 

[Hyped]

My pre-game plan if I were McD/Flores:

Offense: Expect the Rams to come out in a 3-4 with zone play in the secondary. I'd run a lot of outside runs where we can stay away from Donald/Suh and exploit their over pursuers. Would run some jet sweeps with Patterson too...and target White all damn day along....against zone D...we will need to dial up some zone beaters to get Gronk/Edelman going. I also would dial up some deep passes to Hogan/Dorsett to keep them honest.

Defense: I'd put Crossen/J.Jones on Cooks with Devin helping out. Gilmore on Woods all day. Chung can cover Higbee/Everett all on his own. J.C. Jackson on Reynolds. That's 5 guys. The remaining 6....they gotta play the run...and shut down Gurley/Anderson as much as we can. I'd also try some A gap pressures to move Goff off his spot as Sullivan apparently has been struggling.

 

[Angelpats]

It cooks needed hill treatment he would be playing for us and not LA. I’d put JC Jackson on him with safety over the top but not doubling

Isn’t safety over the top doubling?

It would be a waste to put Jackson on cooks, Jones would be better with help. Like what they did to Hill. Bb knows cooks strength so he should have a good plan to deal with him.

 

[luuked]

Some research I just did (pasted below):

Team Records For 2018:
Rams' record vs. common opponents: W vs. Chargers, W vs. Vikings, W vs. Chiefs, W vs. Packers, W @ Lions, and L @ Bears. Total: 5-1
Pats' record vs. common opponents: L vs. Lions, W vs. Chiefs, W @ Bears, W vs. Packers, W vs. Vikings, W vs. Chargers, and W @ Chiefs. Total 6-1

Rams' record vs. 2018 playoff teams: W vs. Chargers, W @ Seahawks, L @ Saints, W vs. Seahawks, W vs. Chiefs, L @ Bears, L vs. Eagles, W vs. Cowboys, and W @ Saints. Total: 6-3
Pats' record vs. 2018 playoff teams: W vs. Texans, W vs. Colts, W @ Bears, W vs. Chiefs, W vs. Chargers, and W @ Chiefs. Total: 6-0

Rams' record vs. 2018 teams above .500: W vs. Chargers, W vs. Vikings, W @ Seahawks, L @ Saints W vs. Seahawks, W vs. Chiefs, L @ Bears, L vs. Eagles, W vs. Cowboys, and W @ Saints. Total: 7-3
Pats' records vs. 2018 teams above .500: W vs. Texans, W vs. Colts, W @ Bears, W vs. Chiefs, L @ Titans, W vs. Vikings, L @ Steelers, W vs. Chargers, and W @ Chiefs. Total: 7-2

RAMS OFFENSIVE LINE:

Per PFF (as of week 17): After such a hot start, the Rams offensive line getting exposed over the second half of the season was one of the more significant reasons for their offensive lull. Most notably, center John Sullivan’s play fell off a cliff down the stretch. After allowing four pressures through the first seven games, he allowed 32 over the last nine. Still, it’s one of the few lines in the NFL to have five starters play over 1,000 snaps.

Per Football Outsiders: #1 run blocking and #6 pass protection. Link: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

PFF's top 25 OL Men For 2018 has 3 Rams listed at #10 (Havenstein), #11 (Withworth), and #23 (Blythe). Link: Top 25 offensive linemen of the 2018 NFL season | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

Summary per PFF: Withworth is "Good", Saffold is "Above Average", Sullivan is "Below Average", Blythe is "Above Average", and Havenstein is "Good".

(For reference) PATS OFFENSIVE LINE:
Per PFF (as of week 17): Another year, another well-oiled machine blocking in New England. Shaq Mason finished the season as PFF’s All-Pro right guard and all five starters were among the top-75 graded offensive linemen in the league.

Per Football Outsiders: #3 run blocking and #1 pass protection. Link: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

PFF's top 25 OL Men For 2018 has 1 Patriot (Mason) listed at #7. Link: Top 25 offensive linemen of the 2018 NFL season | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

Summary per PFF: Brown is "Above Average", Thuney is "Above Average", Andrews is "Above Average", Mason is "Good", and Cannon is "Above Average".

RAMS DEFENSE:

RAMS DL (Per PFF): Brockers (Above Average), Suh (Good), Donald (Elite). Dante Fowler (Not starter, but Above Average), Lawer (Above Average), Franklin-Myers (Average), and Westbrooks (Below Average),

Rams LB (Per PFF): Dante Fowler/M.Longacre (Will, Above Average ), Ebukam (Sam, Did not start NFCCG, Above Average), Littleton (Inside, Above Average ), Barron (Inside, Below Average), Wilson (Average), and Hager (Above Average).

Rams Secondary (Per PFF): Peters (Average), Talib (Above Average), Robey (Good), T. Hill (Average) Shields (Average), Johnson (Good), Joyner (Above Average), Countess (Above Average), & Christian (Average).
Summary: Per the gamebook for the NFCCG on NFL.com, the Rams defense opened in a 3-3-5 nickel look with Brockers, Suh, and Donald on the DL. Fowler, Littleton, and Barron playing LB (Fowler probably was on the DL). Talib, Peters, Robey, Johnson, and Joyner in the secondary.

Here are the numbers from profootball reference: 2018 Los Angeles Rams Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Highlights:
- Aaron Donald had 41 solo tackles, 18 assisted tackles, 25 TFLs, 41 QB hits, and 20.5 sacks!
- Suh was 2nd in QB hits with 19 and had 4.5 sacks.

So PFF would take Withworth/Havenstein over Brown/Cannon ? Not sure I agree at all.

 

[Redman443]

Rams run a different offense from the Eagles last year. Eagles ran alot of spread plays and RPO's. Similar to a college offense. Rams run alot more plays under center. I see a bunch of play action screens and play action short passes. They're in the shotgun sometimes but not as much as the eagles were. Got to pressure Goff

 

[Redman443]

PHI- 79% shotgun 21% under center
LAR 63% under center 37% shotgun.

LAR has the highest under center rate in the NFL.
For reference
NE 55% under center 45% shotgun

 

[supafly]

(For reference) PATS OFFENSIVE LINE:
Per PFF (as of week 17): Another year, another well-oiled machine blocking in New England. Shaq Mason finished the season as PFF’s All-Pro right guard and all five starters were among the top-75 graded offensive linemen in the league.

Per Football Outsiders: #3 run blocking and #1 pass protection. Link: 2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

PFF's top 25 OL Men For 2018 has 1 Patriot (Mason) listed at #7. Link: Top 25 offensive linemen of the 2018 NFL season | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

Summary per PFF: Brown is "Above Average", Thuney is "Above Average", Andrews is "Above Average", Mason is "Good", and Cannon is "Above Average".

Very nice post, although I’m a bit confused as to how PFF could have Mason as their “all pro RG,” yet he’s the worst ranked out of the 5 OL, and comes in at merely “good.”

 

[Redman443]

Re watched highlights from the Rams-Bears game and the rams-saints games. They LOVE to go play action drag routes. Theyve been killing defenses on those routes. On occasion theyll go shotgun on 1st and second down but most of the time, its under center. You really dont know if its a pass or a run. I dont expect them to re invent their entire offense in 2 weeks so expect to see that. It will probably be a steady dose of Gurley and Anderson. Goff will almost always go shotgun in 3rd down. Crazy because it is a completely different offense from Kansas City. Goff is not as talented as Mahomes but they can hurt you in a different way.

 

[Redman443]

On defense, I noticed they gave up alot of yards to running backs in the passing game. Kamara got his. Not sure if theyll be anticipating this but if the pass is not available over the middle, he can hit them with the paper cuts with james white. There was a play where brees had literally no one open and dumped it off to Kamara for a 15 yard gain.

 

[Tony2046]

We’re gonna play more zone coverage. I believe 9 of his 12 INTs were against zone.

The All-22: How Patriots pressure could make life miserable for Jared Goff

Watched a bunch of Goff film.

1. As your posted article states Goff will make some poor or late decisions resulting in int's or incompletions.

2. Goff will panic under pressure. For example, he'll attempt to get rid of the ball far too late when under pressure instead of just taking the sack.

3. Goff fumbles a lot. I think I counted 14 fumbles or strip sacks. Those numbers got worse as the season progressed.

Anyway I think the Pats are going to harass Goff all day long. He'll make mistakes.

 

[Tony2046]

Welp, another thing I just learned. Goff is a young Brady according to Cowherd.

Not even close..

 

[Hyped]

Very nice post, although I’m a bit confused as to how PFF could have Mason as their “all pro RG,” yet he’s the worst ranked out of the 5 OL, and comes in at merely “good.”

PFF's grading chart is like this from top to bottom: Elite, Good, Above Average, Average, Below Average, and I think POOR (unsure).