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Pats and Wilfork close to a deal for an extension?

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That is not correct. His previous level of play is not irrelevant. If he'd been a stiff in 2012, and followed that up with 2013, he'd already be unemployed. Instead, we have 4 baseline issues/reference points:

  1. First team All Pro as recently as 2 seasons ago, and a top talent most of his career
  2. Looked off last season prior to the injury
  3. The injury, and general recovery percentages
  4. His age/Weight/rehab dedication

All of those are relevant when trying to assess what makes sense for both sides. It's an issue of weighing them all together, looking at the numbers, and trying to find a (hopefully) mutually acceptable solution.



Yes, there's a fundamental problem. I think most of us are in agreement with this. To make it worse, even if VW were to return and struggle this season, it wouldn't necessarily mean he was done. He might need the year to bounce back. It's conceivable that he could be a better player in 2015 than in 2014.

  • Extend the player and watch him go bad, and it's a disaster.
  • Extend the player and watch him bounce back, and you're brilliant.
  • Cut the player and watch him go to a rival and flourish, and it's a disaster.
  • Cut the player and watch him fail to recover, and you're brilliant.

This is the sort of decision that gets these guys (coaches/GMs) the big bucks or, in the case of less secure people, gets them fired..

No matter what opinion you take in the "cut him/extend him" debate, some of what you say is very insightful. Like you mention, this is why there's a fine line between being a genius and being run out of town for poor decision making. These decisions could fall either way, and it's difficult to predict.

Personally, I was always hoping that they'd have been able to extend him for 2 more years and then convert the 2014 salary/spread it out for '15 and '16 at a "reasonable and fair" price.

Just like any other negotiation, what I find to be reasonable and fair may not be anywhere near in line with what Belichick/Wilfork see it as. I always felt that extending him for something in the 3.5--4.5 AAV range for the next 2 years would be fair, considering the situation and the current market. Again, I'm wondering if Wilfork wouldn't view that proposal as an insult, considering that he was just making top dollar prior to the injury?

VW may end up gambling on himself and finding out that he may have overvalued himself + the market for a DT in his situation. Only time will tell.
 
WOW, could you possibly be more pompous with this remark. I guess we are all just little bugs to you, "nipping at your godlike ankles" Talk about being an egomaniac.

Give Deus a break, Ken. The poor guy already has Shmessy following him around from thread to thread, for God's sake.
 
Yes, there's a fundamental problem. I think most of us are in agreement with this. To make it worse, even if VW were to return and struggle this season, it wouldn't necessarily mean he was done. He might need the year to bounce back. It's conceivable that he could be a better player in 2015 than in 2014.

  • Extend the player and watch him go bad, and it's a disaster.
  • Extend the player and watch him bounce back, and you're brilliant.
  • Cut the player and watch him go to a rival and flourish, and it's a disaster.
  • Cut the player and watch him fail to recover, and you're brilliant.

This is the sort of decision that gets these guys (coaches/GMs) the big bucks or, in the case of less secure people, gets them fired..

I don't think that your 3rd and 4th items are a concern. If you make the decision to move on from a player, you can't worry about whether they'll go to a rival and flourish. If the Pats cut Wilfork and make some moves with his cap space that end up having an impact on winning another SB, I don't think it will matter much whether he flourishes elsewhere or not.
 
I don't think that your 3rd and 4th items are a concern. If you make the decision to move on from a player, you can't worry about whether they'll go to a rival and flourish. If the Pats cut Wilfork and make some moves with his cap space that end up having an impact on winning another SB, I don't think it will matter much whether he flourishes elsewhere or not.

Yeah, I don't think Belichick ever cares what happens when a player leaves. His philosophy is to cut ties a year too early rather than a year too late. When you cut ties a year too early, you risk letting a guy go with one or two years left of productive seasons. It is part of the game using that philosophy. All Belichick can worry about is having an adequet or better replacement.

The simple fact is when you strip away the emotional attachment to Wilfork, he is a bad bet without him taking a team friendly restructure. Many players never recover from a torn achilles tendon tear. It is one of the few injuries still left that the odds are against you for a full recovery. Add his age. Big guys like Wilfork typically start to hit the age wall at 33 or 34 even without injuries. And the last time we saw him, he was a good 50-70lbs over his playing weight of 2012 (which was arguably his lightest of his career when he had a great year).

Wilfork is one of my favorite players on the Patriots. But the odds of him having a good season this year is not great. Odds of him returning to anything close to 2012 is a real long shot bet. With the odds stacked against him, the Pats must minimize the risk.
 
I don't think that your 3rd and 4th items are a concern. If you make the decision to move on from a player, you can't worry about whether they'll go to a rival and flourish. If the Pats cut Wilfork and make some moves with his cap space that end up having an impact on winning another SB, I don't think it will matter much whether he flourishes elsewhere or not.

This.
Most of the commentary in this thread is being dominated by feeling like Vince Wilfork is owed something for what he has done in the past. Teams that think that way fail, posters that think that way end up talking down to people to cover their weak argument.
The team must make a decision based upon the future, not the past. If Wilfork is not worth 7.5mill, it doesn't matter if he was worth 20 mill a year in the past. It doesn't matter if he was over paid or under paid in the past. Teams can not do 'make up' contracts as a sentimental reward, and remain as competitive as possible.
The reality is that at 7.5 mill, Wilfork offer the possibility of being worth the contract, but not the likelihood. Spending 7.5 mill on players who are healthy, closer to the prime of their career and not in danger of being a shell of their former self.
If VW were to take a paycut, or an extension that spreads the 7.5 mill hit without a big cost in the added years, then it becomes more reasonable. If 6 mill is converted to signing bonus and 2 years at 2 mill a piece were added, then you end up with a 3.5 mill cap hit, plus 2 4 mill hits. That is much less risky and still frees up 4 mill of space.
At the 7.5mill hit, it just isn't good business.
It is better to cut him and find out he was worth 7.5mill (because you will get 7.5mill in value elsewhere) than to keep him and find out he won't help the team (either by not being recovered, or lingering effects from a 350lb man with a bum achilles, on top of age concerns) and the 7.5mill turns out to be poorly spent.
Factoring in emotion, an entitlement to certain treatment based upon his play in previous years, or sentimentality only pushes you toward a bad decision.
Calling cutting Wilfork a '**** move' is just ignoring what is best for the team, and basing your thinking on emotion and sentiment. Its too bad that VW got hurt, is getting old, and may no longer be effective, but to pay him more than he is worth out of sympathy hurts the football team, and football decisions should be based on football not humanity or feeling bad for a millionaire and giving him more millions that could be spent better elsewhere.
 
Yeah, I don't think Belichick ever cares what happens when a player leaves. His philosophy is to cut ties a year too early rather than a year too late. When you cut ties a year too early, you risk letting a guy go with one or two years left of productive seasons. It is part of the game using that philosophy. All Belichick can worry about is having an adequet or better replacement.

The simple fact is when you strip away the emotional attachment to Wilfork, he is a bad bet without him taking a team friendly restructure. Many players never recover from a torn achilles tendon tear. It is one of the few injuries still left that the odds are against you for a full recovery. Add his age. Big guys like Wilfork typically start to hit the age wall at 33 or 34 even without injuries. And the last time we saw him, he was a good 50-70lbs over his playing weight of 2012 (which was arguably his lightest of his career when he had a great year).

Wilfork is one of my favorite players on the Patriots. But the odds of him having a good season this year is not great. Odds of him returning to anything close to 2012 is a real long shot bet. With the odds stacked against him, the Pats must minimize the risk.

I don't know anything about the healing process for returning from a torn achilles heel, but I imagine it must be comparable to an ACL injury in that your first year back is not going to be anywhere near 100% but you fully rebound in your 2nd year back.

I think the team doesn't see that as a luxury they can take a gamble on and may have already made up their mind.
 
I don't know anything about the healing process for returning from a torn achilles heel, but I imagine it must be comparable to an ACL injury in that your first year back is not going to be anywhere near 100% but you fully rebound in your 2nd year back.

I think the team doesn't see that as a luxury they can take a gamble on and may have already made up their mind.

Except recovery from ACL tears are not like that anymore. Adrian Peterson won the league MVP the first year back from a torn ACL. Achilles tears are not the career enders they were 5 years ago, but they are still not as easy to come back from as an ACL.

Some day, both injuries will be a several month recovery process, but they aren't there yet.
 
- Teams look at the cap hit of a player not the base salary paid out. He may only be getting $7.5 million of new money, but his cap hit is $11 million.

The thing that you are overlooking is that it is $3.6M against the cap even if the team releases him, making the swing $7.5M. The $3.6M sunk at this point the team is determining how much more they are willing to invest in Wilfork.

- I disagree that $7.5 million for a 33 year old player coming of a major injury that has ended careers and has weight issues is perfectly reasonable. For Wilfork two years ago? Absolutely. For 2014 Wilfork? Not even close.

Wilfork is 32 years old, he turned 32 on 11/4/13 that is not 33 it is closer to 31 than it is 33 actually. You have no idea if there is even a drop off between Wilfork in 2012, and what he will perform like in 2014, you are assuming.

When has Wilfork had weight issues, people saw a guy on the sidelines who was physically unable to workout due to his foot being in a walking boot and think because he gained some weight as a result that he has weight problems. Do you remember how skinny Brady got back in 2008 when he was injured?

- What Wilfork has done during his career is irrelevant now. It is his value to the team today. And let's face it, it isn't $7.5 million worth. There is good chance that Wilfork will never be more than a subpar NT ever again and NTs are becoming less and less important to the league.

I do not think he is worth $7.5M either but if Paul Soliai just signed for $6.4M APY then Wilfork should earn $7.5M.

I agree with the position becoming less of a factor in the NFL, I just disagree with his being a subpar player moving forward. He was a first team All-Pro in 2012, I know you feel Achilles injuries are career ending, but I disagree I think that he can make a full recovery. He is not a RB, WR, or DB who is running full speed in space, his game is that of strength and explosiveness, as long as the injury is structurally healed I see no reason to believe he cannot perform at the level he did in 2012 in 2014 and even 2015.

- The bottom line is the Pats cannot afford to carry Wilfork's $11 million cap hit. They need more cap room and he is the easiest and most effective way to free up cap space.

I would be inclined to put players like – Adrian Wilson, or Dan Connolly on the street before I released one of the all-time great Patriots and the face of the defense for the better part of the last decade. Not that I believe we are as desperate for cap space as you suggest.

Amendola $4.8M
Connolly $4.1M
Gostkowski $3.8M
Arrington $3.6M
Slater $2.3M
A Wilson $1.8M
T Wilson $1.15M

Look at those players cap hits in 2014, Gostkowski should be restructured, and the rest of the players carry cap hits significantly greater than a player of their magnitude should. That is not knocking them that is just reality, Arrington is currently the fifth CB on the team, Amendola is currently the third or fourth receiver, the Wilsons are competing for spots ten and eleven in our defensive backfield, and I love Slater but he is a special team’s player that is it. If you want to talk about players not worth what they make there are many that I would look at before Wilfork.
 
No, I'm noting that it would be reasonable to extend the deal in the hopes that he'd bounce back, because they almost certainly don't know one way or another right now, and they may feel that they want some room but don't want to give up on Vince. Vince isn't doing reverse dunks. Vince isn't in the hospital with his Achilles tendon needing reattachemnt. He's somewhere in the middle and, in all likelihood, a long way from being rehabbed enough for people to make a concrete assessment about his final physical state. There's a gamble here.

Given the current projections of their 2015 cap space, the money is there to take a reasonable risk on Wilfork, if they choose. I'm not sure where your use of "sight unseen" came from, though, since I think we can agree that they'd check him out as best they could before making such a decision, and he's reportedly been in the locker room recently enough to clean his things out after discussions broke down.

I would absolutely agree in taking a reasonable risk, just not an unreasonable one. The only player that I could find close to Wilfork's scenario is Greg Ellis. He made it back. As a fan, I hope Wilfork is odds-defying and does it as well. I just don't know if it is even possible to get a sense of where this may be trending medically 6 months out from the injury.

By "site unseen", I meant the team may well not be able to gauge if he will be a Greg Ellis, or a NFL player at all right now. I have no doubt Wilfork will be able to walk (he was doing that 8 weeks ago), but driving hundreds of pounds dynamically shifting and applying substantial opposing force as you move is a far cry from mere movement. Again, I don't claim to know where he is at this point. I indicated preciously I expect the Patriots have some data, but what that data reasonably shows with regard to an NFL player is anyone's guess at this point. The medical sites indicate a return to 'routine' activities 4 - 6 months after removal of a cast. That may suggest a guy who can walk and move around like us. We may not be able to put him against a blocker and see what happens for several more months. You aren't paying $8 million for a guy to walk the sidelines.

This locker room issue may coincide with the release statement, so I still hold out hope the sides can come together with a deal that protects all interests. I would have no issue with an extension that guarantees the dead money and ties $4 million+ to incentives based on him getting on the field, and comparable salary or slightly more next year if he clears medically. I am just not about to pick a side as unreasonable as this scenario can reasonably point the finger in either direction given the likely uncertainty as to Wilfork's status and ability to play for the team in the future.

Wilfork became the highest paid nose tackle with his last deal, so he did not take a hometown discount to play. That scenario went ugly as well, so I hope this is more of the same. I am just hoping he is not wrangling for Haloti Ngata type money under the present circumstances of injury and age, given the fact that deal was done the following year (2011), as that would suggest he wants the full contract amount and more. If so, then I doubt the sides can bridge the gap. Under those circumstances, I would agree it is best to release him now and put this to bed.
 
Except recovery from ACL tears are not like that anymore. Adrian Peterson won the league MVP the first year back from a torn ACL. Achilles tears are not the career enders they were 5 years ago, but they are still not as easy to come back from as an ACL.

Some day, both injuries will be a several month recovery process, but they aren't there yet.

You realize Wilfork had surgery seven months ago right, the injury is likely completely healed at this point in fact I would just about guarantee that it is. You need to stop referring to the injury as if it happen last week and everyone has to sit and wait to see how it turns out, the Patriots and Wilfork have a complete prognosis of where Wilfork is in terms of recovery. In addition, Wilfork tore is his Achilles emphasis on the tore, the extent of the tear and weather it was a complete tear is unknown. It was not a rupture, or at least it was not labeled as one by any doctors or media at the time, so it could have been a partial tear of the tendon.
 
You realize Wilfork had surgery seven months ago right, the injury is likely completely healed at this point in fact I would just about guarantee that it is. You need to stop referring to the injury as if it happen last week and everyone has to sit and wait to see how it turns out, the Patriots and Wilfork have a complete prognosis of where Wilfork is in terms of recovery. In addition, Wilfork tore is his Achilles emphasis on the tore, the extent of the tear and weather it was a complete tear is unknown. It was not a rupture, or at least it was not labeled as one by any doctors or media at the time, so it could have been a partial tear of the tendon.

You do realize that a large number of players who tear their achilles tendon never return to close the player they used to be? You do realize that achilles tendon repair recoveries can take over a year? Achilles tendon tears are still one of the injuries that it is iffy if a player ever returns to form.

Here is a article from a doctor on Wilfork's injury:

Assuming an uncomplicated surgery, Wilfork will likely require somewhere in the neighborhood of six months or so to return to the field.

His rehab will involve slowly working to increase his range of motion, strength and mobility while his repaired tendon cements itself back into place.

That said, the recovery time for an Achilles repair is extremely variable, running anywhere from four months to over a year. Predetermined factors such as a patient's age and innate healing ability play huge roles.

Whether or not Wilfork's above-average weight will further complicate matters is not exactly clear.

Breaking Down Vince Wilfork's Torn Achilles Tendon and Road to Recovery | Bleacher Report

This doctor says there is a chance he could return to form in 2014, but he doesn't know.
 
What happens if Wilfork is injured in camp on the first day? Are the patriots on the hook for the whole salary, ie he's IR'd?

If so, I don't see how they let him on the field with an iffy tendon supporting a 400 pound body.

Not sure why they don't just cut him loose. Not right to wait until the market is dried up, let him see it for himself what he can get.

Maybe he'd rather retire than play on an incentive based contract. If so, that's his right, I guess.
 
This doctor says there is a chance he could return to form in 2014, but he doesn't know.

Speaking as a physician with 20 years experience, I've said the same thing ever since Wilfork's injury. We obviously don't know the precise extent of the tear/rupture, and don't have any information on Wilfork's recovery status. I've also said that individual variability in wound healing could be a significant factor, and that Wilfork's extensive family history of diabetes is a medical red flag.
 
The thing that you are overlooking is that it is $3.6M against the cap even if the team releases him, making the swing $7.5M. The $3.6M sunk at this point the team is determining how much more they are willing to invest in Wilfork.[/quote}

I am not overlooking anything. I am saying how the team looks at. Right now, he counts almost 10% of the team's cap. That is what they are looking at.



Wilfork is 32 years old, he turned 32 on 11/4/13 that is not 33 it is closer to 31 than it is 33 actually. You have no idea if there is even a drop off between Wilfork in 2012, and what he will perform like in 2014, you are assuming.

Wilfork will be far closer to 33 than 31 when the season starts and will be 33 by midseason. I was talking about when the season is in gear. Let's not play the semantics game.

When has Wilfork had weight issues, people saw a guy on the sidelines who was physically unable to workout due to his foot being in a walking boot and think because he gained some weight as a result that he has weight problems. Do you remember how skinny Brady got back in 2008 when he was injured?

When has Wilfork had weight issues? Huh?!? You realize Wilfork has a weight bonus clause in his contract because the team is concerned about his weight? Wilfork has had weight issues during his career. And it isn't surprising that he had one of his best years in 2012 when he was arguably at his lightest in his career.

The problem is Wilfork gained a lot of weight when got injured. That can slow his recovery time and he may not be able to lose that weight by the start of the season. He was pretty heavy going into the 2013 season which may be why he played like crap before he was injured.



I do not think he is worth $7.5M either but if Paul Soliai just signed for $6.4M APY then Wilfork should earn $7.5M.
.

Soliai's contract has a lot of BS numbers in it. He is making $10.5 million in base salary in 2017 and 2018 when he is ages 34 and 35. He also has a million dollar roster bonus each of those years. So he won't see that money.

But he is also two years younger and not coming off a major injury.

I agree with the position becoming less of a factor in the NFL, I just disagree with his being a subpar player moving forward. He was a first team All-Pro in 2012, I know you feel Achilles injuries are career ending, but I disagree I think that he can make a full recovery. He is not a RB, WR, or DB who is running full speed in space, his game is that of strength and explosiveness, as long as the injury is structurally healed I see no reason to believe he cannot perform at the level he did in 2012 in 2014 and even 2015.

Again, I never said he would be a sub par player, but there is a very good chance of it.

You and others keep talking about 2012, but you choose to ignore the fact that Wilfork spent that offseason getting trim and was probably 20 pounds lighter than his average career playing weight. He was so dominant that year because he was in the best condition of his life.

Here is a picture of Wilfork in 2012:



Here is a picture of Wilfork last year post injury:




I would be inclined to put players like – Adrian Wilson, or Dan Connolly on the street before I released one of the all-time great Patriots and the face of the defense for the better part of the last decade. Not that I believe we are as desperate for cap space as you suggest.

Amendola $4.8M
Connolly $4.1M
Gostkowski $3.8M
Arrington $3.6M
Slater $2.3M
A Wilson $1.8M
T Wilson $1.15M

Look at those players cap hits in 2014, Gostkowski should be restructured, and the rest of the players carry cap hits significantly greater than a player of their magnitude should. That is not knocking them that is just reality, Arrington is currently the fifth CB on the team, Amendola is currently the third or fourth receiver, the Wilsons are competing for spots ten and eleven in our defensive backfield, and I love Slater but he is a special team’s player that is it. If you want to talk about players not worth what they make there are many that I would look at before Wilfork.

There are other players who can be cut and restructured, but restructuring or cutting Wilfork will generate the most cap room.
 
I am reposting since the last post went off the page because of the image:

The thing that you are overlooking is that it is $3.6M against the cap even if the team releases him, making the swing $7.5M. The $3.6M sunk at this point the team is determining how much more they are willing to invest in Wilfork.

I am not overlooking anything. I am saying how the team looks at. Right now, he counts almost 10% of the team's cap. That is what they are looking at.




Wilfork is 32 years old, he turned 32 on 11/4/13 that is not 33 it is closer to 31 than it is 33 actually. You have no idea if there is even a drop off between Wilfork in 2012, and what he will perform like in 2014, you are assuming.

Wilfork will be far closer to 33 than 31 when the season starts and will be 33 by midseason. I was talking about when the season is in gear. Let's not play the semantics game.


When has Wilfork had weight issues, people saw a guy on the sidelines who was physically unable to workout due to his foot being in a walking boot and think because he gained some weight as a result that he has weight problems. Do you remember how skinny Brady got back in 2008 when he was injured?

When has Wilfork had weight issues? Huh?!? You realize Wilfork has a weight bonus clause in his contract because the team is concerned about his weight? Wilfork has had weight issues during his career. And it isn't surprising that he had one of his best years in 2012 when he was arguably at his lightest in his career.

The problem is Wilfork gained a lot of weight when got injured. That can slow his recovery time and he may not be able to lose that weight by the start of the season. He was pretty heavy going into the 2013 season which may be why he played like crap before he was injured.

I do not think he is worth $7.5M either but if Paul Soliai just signed for $6.4M APY then Wilfork should earn $7.5M.
.

Soliai's contract has a lot of BS numbers in it. He is making $10.5 million in base salary in 2017 and 2018 when he is ages 34 and 35. He also has a million dollar roster bonus each of those years. So he won't see that money.

But he is also two years younger and not coming off a major injury.

I agree with the position becoming less of a factor in the NFL, I just disagree with his being a subpar player moving forward. He was a first team All-Pro in 2012, I know you feel Achilles injuries are career ending, but I disagree I think that he can make a full recovery. He is not a RB, WR, or DB who is running full speed in space, his game is that of strength and explosiveness, as long as the injury is structurally healed I see no reason to believe he cannot perform at the level he did in 2012 in 2014 and even 2015.

Again, I never said he would be a sub par player, but there is a very good chance of it.

You and others keep talking about 2012, but you choose to ignore the fact that Wilfork spent that offseason getting trim and was probably 20 pounds lighter than his average career playing weight. He was so dominant that year because he was in the best condition of his life.

Here is a picture of Wilfork in 2012:



Here is a picture of Wilfork last year post injury:





I would be inclined to put players like – Adrian Wilson, or Dan Connolly on the street before I released one of the all-time great Patriots and the face of the defense for the better part of the last decade. Not that I believe we are as desperate for cap space as you suggest.

Amendola $4.8M
Connolly $4.1M
Gostkowski $3.8M
Arrington $3.6M
Slater $2.3M
A Wilson $1.8M
T Wilson $1.15M

Look at those players cap hits in 2014, Gostkowski should be restructured, and the rest of the players carry cap hits significantly greater than a player of their magnitude should. That is not knocking them that is just reality, Arrington is currently the fifth CB on the team, Amendola is currently the third or fourth receiver, the Wilsons are competing for spots ten and eleven in our defensive backfield, and I love Slater but he is a special team’s player that is it. If you want to talk about players not worth what they make there are many that I would look at before Wilfork.

There are other players who can be cut and restructured, but restructuring or cutting Wilfork will generate the most cap room.
 
As much as I want Wilfork back I just have a hard time seeing it happening. I think he feels disrespected by the team and probbaly feels as if he is worth the full $11 million and them trying to rework his deal into the money being in incentives or an extension is not something he is interested in. I am really curious to see the details of these negotiations if they do come to light.
 
As much as I want Wilfork back I just have a hard time seeing it happening. I think he feels disrespected by the team and probbaly feels as if he is worth the full $11 million and them trying to rework his deal into the money being in incentives or an extension is not something he is interested in. I am really curious to see the details of these negotiations if they do come to light.


I think this is exactly right. Wilfork wants it all and it is unlikely the team is doing that. In all likelihood they are going to require the restructure for him to return, and he is probably going to refuse it unless he has no choice and the money is substantial enough to get him to give in. Belichick is not going to let Wilfork dictate his decisions and I think he will wait to see how things develop going forward. If he can get his "replacement" in the draft then he will give him the release and free up the money to finish building this years roster, however if he sees no "replacement" for him and can't find any way to fill that hole then he may actually bite the bullet and keep him. I think this is unlikely at this point but he did the same thing when Welker signed the 10 million tag. Belichick did not want that much cap space and cash going to Welker, and never forgave him for it, but he was willing to eat it because he really had no other option. It could get really nasty if Wilfork starts skipping the offseason workouts and camps and holds out for his release but Belichick has never wavered before in these situations and always does what he feels is best and not what the player wants, and that's what will happen with Wilfork.
 
I think we can assume that Jerry Thornton's "friend of a friend" does not know his elbow from his other body part.
 
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