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That is not correct. His previous level of play is not irrelevant. If he'd been a stiff in 2012, and followed that up with 2013, he'd already be unemployed. Instead, we have 4 baseline issues/reference points:
- First team All Pro as recently as 2 seasons ago, and a top talent most of his career
- Looked off last season prior to the injury
- The injury, and general recovery percentages
- His age/Weight/rehab dedication
All of those are relevant when trying to assess what makes sense for both sides. It's an issue of weighing them all together, looking at the numbers, and trying to find a (hopefully) mutually acceptable solution.
Yes, there's a fundamental problem. I think most of us are in agreement with this. To make it worse, even if VW were to return and struggle this season, it wouldn't necessarily mean he was done. He might need the year to bounce back. It's conceivable that he could be a better player in 2015 than in 2014.
- Extend the player and watch him go bad, and it's a disaster.
- Extend the player and watch him bounce back, and you're brilliant.
- Cut the player and watch him go to a rival and flourish, and it's a disaster.
- Cut the player and watch him fail to recover, and you're brilliant.
This is the sort of decision that gets these guys (coaches/GMs) the big bucks or, in the case of less secure people, gets them fired..
No matter what opinion you take in the "cut him/extend him" debate, some of what you say is very insightful. Like you mention, this is why there's a fine line between being a genius and being run out of town for poor decision making. These decisions could fall either way, and it's difficult to predict.
Personally, I was always hoping that they'd have been able to extend him for 2 more years and then convert the 2014 salary/spread it out for '15 and '16 at a "reasonable and fair" price.
Just like any other negotiation, what I find to be reasonable and fair may not be anywhere near in line with what Belichick/Wilfork see it as. I always felt that extending him for something in the 3.5--4.5 AAV range for the next 2 years would be fair, considering the situation and the current market. Again, I'm wondering if Wilfork wouldn't view that proposal as an insult, considering that he was just making top dollar prior to the injury?
VW may end up gambling on himself and finding out that he may have overvalued himself + the market for a DT in his situation. Only time will tell.












