- Joined
- Feb 27, 2010
- Messages
- 12,084
- Reaction score
- 17,864
As an ex-mathematician (and apparently also a hopeless pedant) I just have to point out that there really isn't anything called the "Law of Averages". It's generally just a layman's inaccurate attempt to encapsulate probabilistic concepts in a simple to understand way and does not capture any biases in the intrinsic probability distribution of the system.
What is generally meant by this is something closer to the weak "Law of large Numbers" where, in the case of the coin, the expected value is likely 0.5, but does not include any contribution due to the slightly asymmetric distribution of mass in the coin or indeed any other source of bias.
So, obviously, if Hollister had some tendency towards a particular injury or injuries (as Gronk had towards back injuries etc.) then the "Law of Averages" would absolutely not apply and the concept of being injury prone is a valid one.
Wow, how did I miss such a long series of posts with people talking about the "law of averages" like it's a real thing?