Patriots trade Hollister to the Seahawks

[Urgent]

That's not how either the law of averages or injuries work:

1. The law of averages says he won't get injured again since he's already had the typical amount of injuries an NFL player has.

2. Past injuries do not indicate a propensity for future injuries unless the player has a chronic issue in a particular part of the body (i.e., Gronk's back).

The law of averages says prior events ( injuries) is unrelated to the future. Future outcomes are predicted by overall averages.
The classic example is flipping a penny. If you happened to flip heads five times in a row tails is no more likely the next time. The law of averages says its 50%.

So Hollister being injured in the past doesn’t use up his probability of being injured in the future.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Why are some people in this thread so upset? It's Jacob Hollister.

 

[Zuma]

Bummer the Hollister twins aren't with the Pats...but did you know Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Matt LaCosse were born only 8 days apart? They are practically twins!

 

[Clonamery]

Bummer the Hollister twins aren't with the Pats...but did you know Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Matt LaCosse were born only 8 days apart? They are practically twins!

Props to their mom being in labor that long.

 

[mgteich]

I would conclude that there might be a possibility of a biased coin, and that heads was MORE likely.

But yes, with a guaranteed fair coin. after 99 heads in a row, the probability on the next flip is still 50% heads.

.If you happened to flip heads five times in a row tails is no more likely the next time. The law of averages says its 50%.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The law of averages says prior events ( injuries) is unrelated to the future. Future outcomes are predicted by overall averages.
The classic example is flipping a penny. If you happened to flip heads five times in a row tails is no more likely the next time. The law of averages says its 50%.

So Hollister being injured in the past doesn’t use up his probability of being injured in the future.

Horrible comparison ... pennies are mostly alike except for debris - bodies are not that alike.

 

[wynpalmer]

The law of averages says prior events ( injuries) is unrelated to the future. Future outcomes are predicted by overall averages.
The classic example is flipping a penny. If you happened to flip heads five times in a row tails is no more likely the next time. The law of averages says its 50%.

So Hollister being injured in the past doesn’t use up his probability of being injured in the future.

As an ex-mathematician (and apparently also a hopeless pedant) I just have to point out that there really isn't anything called the "Law of Averages". It's generally just a layman's inaccurate attempt to encapsulate probabilistic concepts in a simple to understand way and does not capture any biases in the intrinsic probability distribution of the system.
What is generally meant by this is something closer to the weak "Law of large Numbers" where, in the case of the coin, the expected value is likely 0.5, but does not include any contribution due to the slightly asymmetric distribution of mass in the coin or indeed any other source of bias.
So, obviously, if Hollister had some tendency towards a particular injury or injuries (as Gronk had towards back injuries etc.) then the "Law of Averages" would absolutely not apply and the concept of being injury prone is a valid one.

 

[Username]

Why are some people in this thread so upset? It's Jacob Hollister.

These same folks were crying out for Hollister to be cut last year. Go figure.

 

[Jackson 2]

These same folks were crying out for Hollister to be cut last year. Go figure.

It's called PFS - Pats Fans Syndrome: many of the players suck until they are traded or released. In that instant they go from being JAGS, at best, to potential HoFamers, at worst.

 

[n6249c]

It's called PFS - Pats Fans Syndrome: many of the players suck until they are traded or released. In that instant they go from being JAGS, at best, to potential HoFamers, at worst.

Is this somehow related to the phenomenon of players newly or not yet signed by the Pats to be labeled as either sure-bet stellar talent or less than JAGs with nothing in between and no prospect of ever deviating from or changing that evaluation? Until of course when they are traded or released, when it changes as described previously.

 

[Froob]

Why are some people in this thread so upset? It's Jacob Hollister.

People here grow really attached to guys that have done nothing in real games lol. Austin Carr would get a standing ovation if he ever returned.

 

[Jackson 2]

Is this somehow related to the phenomenon of players newly or not yet signed by the Pats to be labeled as either sure-bet stellar talent or less than JAGs with nothing in between and no prospect of ever deviating from or changing that evaluation? Until of course when they are traded or released, when it changes as described previously.

Yes, it's a related condition to PFS. Like PFS, some individuals are more genetically susceptible to it than others. A third, similar malady (as yet un-named) is characterized by the thinking that any rookie who suffers a season-ending injury will not only never play again, but, in fact, has very likely died.

 

[PatsWSB47]

It's called PFS - Pats Fans Syndrome: many of the players suck until they are traded or released. In that instant they go from being JAGS, at best, to potential HoFamers, at worst.

....reminds me of an old George Carlin routine. Loosely goes like this."You hear about Joe? He died." That's awful. He was such a great guy, and that goes for George too. What a great man he was.....Hey I havent heard from Fred in a while have you?" " Yes, I saw him yesterday. That sonofa***** is still alive!"

 

[Flash]

I bet he was going to get cut so the Patriots moved him to get anything back, so the 7th round pick.

Hollister is a JAG so cutting him means almost nothing to our current lack of good TEs.

 

[Joker]

I suck at math but I do know that the probability the Jete suck is 99.999999999999999999999999999999999%

 

[captain stone]

Good riddance to Jake the Fake, and to his equally suck-ass brother too. Time to give 2 others a chance now.

And with this move, the Pats have gone from the Worst TE group in the league to ... the Worst TE group in the league.

 

[mgteich]

We need help at TE; such a crisis! We only have 4 months to sign or trade for a TE or two.

Good riddance to Jake the Fake, and to his equally suck-ass brother too. Time to give 2 others a chance now.

And with this move, the Pats have gone from the Worst TE group in the league to ... the Worst TE group in the league.

 

[captain stone]

We need help at TE; such a crisis! We only have 4 months to sign or trade for a TE or two.

So, are you disputing the veracity of my statement, or simply mocking the messenger to avoid having to agree with it?

 

[mosslost]

Yahoo said that Gronk hinted at coming back today

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

People here grow really attached to guys that have done nothing in real games lol. Austin Carr would get a standing ovation if he ever returned.

Were you around for the Michael Bishop saga? Now that was insufferable. A 7th round pick blessed as the savior. Pats fans would have knelt before him if he returned.