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This sounds good as a critique, ex post facto, 4 years from now, if one of them "hit" and one was a miss, and if they knew in advance which would be which. I do think that building them into a dual threat just wasn't in the cards with Mac's actual rate of development, not our fantasy of when he would grow into this field-commanding assassin we want him to be.
It's worth remembering that just because Mac can play as a rookie as a "meh"-to-decent NFL QB, doesn't mean that's his ceiling. If it were, he'd never grow to the point that he's using both TEs fully. It tends to feel like "this will never get better" because we don't know the next level of development. For that matter, with a perfect match of Jonnu picking it up and Mac seeing all his receivers, maybe Year 1 WOULD be a legit candidate for the year that it all came together as if miraculously. Well, it didn't, which I think is the more likely outcome.
The Pats put the money down for both of them. I think, but I don't know, that they were tired of playing the odds and not replacing Gronk. 19 and 20 were lost years at the position. When 2 decent shots were there to be taken during the salary cap "sale" year, they spent on both.
How much of the move was setting the table for a "TE heaven" future, and how much the move was hedging, you tell me.
You're complaining that Smith isn't Kittle, or Kelce, or Gronk. I would counter that (1), he doesn't have a "K" in his name, so right there, he's behind the 8 ball. But also (2), Henry is.
They wanted to have a Kittle or Kelce or Gronk. They got 1. The other guy is, but non-star TE standards, no slouch. There might not be enough balls avail. right now to TEs to have 2 guys perform at a number 1 level. So you're complaining that they spent on both. That's fair.
Henry caught 9TD, 3 more than Kittle or Gronk, the same number as Kelce. His catches were 50 for 603 yards, trailing those other guys, especially Kelce (though if you adjusted for percentage of total stats for their QBs, Henry might look better, as would Smith. Yet as you say, we paid both).
Both our guys are on 2021 deals with APY of 12.5M, Jonnu over 4 years, Henry over 3. We can get out of either or both without taking a huge bath in '23.
Comparisons -
Gronk is on a one year, $8M, anywhere-but-hometown discount to play with his buddy Tom. Kelce's on a 14.3M APY contract from 2020, but surprisingly, far less of it is guaranteed than our guys. Maybe age-related, even though he's not that old? Imunno. Also Spotrac calls it a 14.3M APY contract over 4 years, but their chart goes through 2025. I dont even know how to figure those last 2 years, maybe they are option years or something. they're also vaporware, since it's almost all salary. You cap guys tell me what I'm missing Travis Kelce
Kittle's getting 15M/Yr APY, 5 years, from 2020.
So all that to say, we're paying both guys not like top-tier TEs (to set that market you'd need another couple million) but like true #1s, and we bought in bulk.
I can think of a few explanations:
1) The Patriots thought they'd combine for, say, 15 TD, 1,500 yards, and 150 catches or something, b/c they thought Mac was that good, not to mention our world-pwning offensive line (unlikely)
2) The Patriots thought their combined production this year would be around where it is, but now they would like to get more out of them collectively, especially Smith individually (this seems more likely)
3) The Patriots thought they would throw 2 big contracts and $25M APY at the problem and get 1 good TE, with the other forever producing as a #2, and make sure to guarantee large chunks of their contracts. (This seems unlikely; you'd think they'd at least hope to eventually have a 2-headed monster, since they're paying for one.)
4) Always a fave - Josh McDaniel has fooled everybody except the Boston sports media and bulletin board trolls, and is actually absolutely incapable of running an offense, and they're both great picks but he's so feckless it takes the light from feck a year to hit him. Those poor teams that wanted him as head coach! (PS, maybe getting whomped as bad as we did in that Bills game will take the bloom off the Josh rose. Hey look, Josh Rosen almost!)
Going forward, it is very expensive to part ways with Smith until 2023, and unless we really really want to then (still on the hook for 13.75 M dead cap), we should wait until '24, when it drops to 3.75M. His contract is structured for us not to get all panicky about it.
The rest of the Board excels at really knowing what's going on. All I'm any good at is knowing what I do know and what I don't know. But adding up the things I do know, it seems like the jury is not in on Smith. That said, there's one thing more expensive than giving up on a guy you have to pay anyway, and that's continuing to play a guy you have to pay but who isn't any good.
I don't think that's Smith. I WILL be interested to see if this grouping gets more productive next year!
). He had 600 yards - those guys had like 900-1300.
