Here is a fact pattern (speculated) that fits the observed, known fact pattern.
Smith is signed for 4 years, there's a huge penalty for getting rid of him in years 1-3, and he didn't get it in year 1.
Here is another fact pattern (speculated) that fits the observed fact pattern.
Smith is signed for 4 years, there is a huge penalty for getting rid of him in years 1-3, and Mac Jones had trouble in year one finding a second TE in his progressions.
Here is another fact pattern (known) that fits the observed fact pattern.
We paid twice for a #1 TE
However, very few teams have 2 #1 TEs playing on the same team in the same season. We are unusual in that we saw Gronk and Hernandez do it together for our team.
So it is likely that we would end up overpaying for one compared with the other -- and if we really aren't good at this, we might overpay for both.
Here is what we did see: A year that Smith did not perform like a #1 TE, although Henry did.
Here is what we did not see: Final proof of how that acquisition looks after 4 years, final proof of his value as a "general" TE regardless of team, final proof of his value as a Patriots TE.
Here are Smith's stats in his first year as a Patriot, with a rookie QB:
28 receptions
45 (not 0) targets
294 yards
10.5 Yards per reception
1 Touchdown
1 fumble
Here are Rod Rutledge's stats in 2001
5 receptions
35 yards
7 yards per reception
0 TDs
That was the number 2 tight end that year. Spoiler alert, Jonnu Smith also outperformed Jermaine Wiggins, the number 1 TE that year (14 receptions, 133 yards.) But they didn't have as good a QB, statistically. They were catching passes for Tom Brady in his first real year.
Granted, we started the present trend and direction of the game, and by we, I mean your New England Football Patriots coaching staff. Generally, you don't lose one of your two TEs bc he killed a guy. We double dipped on TE in the draft, and hit on both, with Gronk and Killa.
We double dipped on TE in free agency last year, after a year of nothing at the position. This coaching staff was faced with thinking they had addressed the position, after Brady could only get 36 catches out of Watson, LaCosse, and Izzo in 2019. Watson led them with 173 yards catching in 2019. 2020 made us WISH for 2019.
Devin Asiasi, whose name literally means "meh," brought in 39 receiving yards and a TD on two catches. Ryan Izzo caught 13 for 199. Dalton Keene brought in 3 balls for 16 yards.
Take another look at Jonnu Smith's stats from 2021. He, like Hunter Henry, was brought in because 2020 was terrible, and 2019 was the problem we were trying to solve with the 2020 TE roster. He, like Hunter Henry (but admittedly less so,) outproduced the entire 2020 TE room.
If I'm the Pats, my hope is that my number 1 TE is a true number 1 TE. I also hope that if I spend on them both, not only do I have twice the chance of hitting on a true number 1 TE, I also might get 2 different styles of number 1 TE, as we had with Gronk and Hernandez - one law abiding, one psychotic. I mean 2 guys who would be TE1 on any other team who have different roles. But I'm not sure how I think a rookie QB is getting them both the ball regularly.
What you settle for is 2 guys, at least 1 of whom can be the number 1 TE, and the other of whom, by the way, would have been the number 1 in the absence of the other (although having your number 1 TE at Smith's level of production is not really being a TE-featuring offense.)
Do any of you think before you rant? Did you look up any of this stuff? Do you care? Or is everything just the worst possible outcome? Yes by God you're right, Jonnu Smith's no Hunter Henry. Then again, if he outperformed Hunter Henry by any appreciable margin, you'd be happy as a clam saying what a bust Henry is.
The one legit whine you have is that all these front loaded deals lock us in on the guys we paid. That I've never liked. We'll see as Mac develops (and as Jonnu catches on) whether we ever get the 2 TE layer to work with this group. What we know, however, is we're not putting him in the TE hell we put Cam in, and also, by the way, TFB.
