Patriots currently projected to finish last in AFC East in 2023 by Vegas

[Ian]

This is an odd one. The Jets don't even have a QB but are going to finish above both the Patriots AND the Dolphins? Seems they are making a lot of assumptions, like that the Jets will trade for Rodgers, and that Rodgers will actually be good in 2023 and not what he was in 2022, and that Rodgers will get along with Saleh, and that Rodgers won't alienate his receivers within 4 weeks.... among other things...

Rodgers's biggest issue is he's just not mentally tough and doesn't handle adversity well. He starts claiming solidarity and then immediately undermines the coaches, teammates, etc. He takes no accountability and he'll be an absolute headcase in New York - even bigger than he already is.

When things are great, he's great. But when they're not ... man ... it's just not pretty. For a guy who preaches "R-E-L-A-X", he's not really good at ignoring the noise.

 

[chasa]

Rodgers's biggest issue is he's just not mentally tough and doesn't handle adversity well. He starts claiming solidarity and then immediately undermines the coaches, teammates, etc. He takes no accountability and he'll be an absolute headcase in New York - even bigger than he already is.

When things are great, he's great. But when they're not ... man ... it's just not pretty. For a guy who preaches "R-E-L-A-X", he's not really good at ignoring the noise.

the odds are with the expectation that rodgers is going to them, if rodgers says no, the jets will drop

 

[Ian]

Perhaps but they still might improve their against everyone else they're playing can effect our playoff chances

I hear what you're saying, but New England needs to win 10 or 11 games next season, regardless and they'll control their own destiny by winning the head-to-head games against the Jets. The bigger question, oddly enough, will be what happens with Buffalo with the financial mess they're in right now. They might be the ones poised for the bigger slide this season, which is going to be interesting.

 

[lancerman]

Having the Jets add Rodgers wouldn't exactly be terrible. He hasn't been dominant against this team and nearly lost against a rookie quarterback who hadn't played a snap all season. And it's also possible Brian Hoyer would have beaten him outright. He didn't look great that day, like at all and I remember watching the 2018 game waiting for him to do something, but he seemed like he was in his own head.

The Patriots had won two out if the previous match-ups prior to last season, and three of four prior to that (Rodgers only played a handful of plays during that 35-0 blowout win:

View attachment 50364

Anyone worried about the Jets suddenly sweeping this team twice a season just because of Rodgers shouldn't be too worried, and it's probably why the deal isn't done because Rodgers knows if he leaves Green Bay and goes there, all the excuses he had are gone. The spotlight truly shifts back on him and I honestly believe he's going to fold - and he knows it. So I feel like they're waiting on him to make a decision that he's got to be really worried about making. Albeit, it's a bed he made for himself. Either way, I wouldn't be worried. Belichick has always appeared to have his number.

The bigger problem is that the Jets issues against us and a lot of the teams they lost to was incompetence at QB. Wilson was one of the worst QB's in the league. A mediocre Rodgers would have been enough for them to beat us in the two games we played last year for instance. Wilson was that bad.

The other factor is Breece Hall. He's healthy, and that's a massive improvement.

The discussion is more that the Jets in reality are actually a pretty talented team that had a huge injury to their best player on offense and had an albatross at the biggest position. The player that got injured is coming back and a guy who is considered one of the leagues elite QB's is an odds on favorite to replace the issue they had at the biggest position. The big thing is that they don't really need Rodgers to be amazing to become a solid playoff team. The team they have now only needs him to be steady.

 

[Ian]

The bigger problem is that the Jets issues against us and a lot of the teams they lost to was incompetence at QB. Wilson was one of the worst QB's in the league. A mediocre Rodgers would have been enough for them to beat us in the two games we played last year for instance. Wilson was that bad.

The other factor is Breece Hall. He's healthy, and that's a massive improvement.

The discussion is more that the Jets in reality are actually a pretty talented team that had a huge injury to their best player on offense and had an albatross at the biggest position. The player that got injured is coming back and a guy who is considered one of the leagues elite QB's is an odds on favorite to replace the issue they had at the biggest position. The big thing is that they don't really need Rodgers to be amazing to become a solid playoff team. The team they have now only needs him to be steady.

The problem is a lot of people are looking at Rodgers today while thinking he's the Rodgers of even three years ago. Are the Jets better with him over Wilson? Absolutely. But are they that much more dominant head-to-head? I don't know about that.

I think the first time he starts getting frustrated, I think he'll have a handful of guys in the locker room he'll be friends with, and he'll alienate others. I think White will need to sign elsewhere because if he comes back, if Rodgers struggles, Jets fans will turn on him and start chanting White's name. If that happens, I feel like Rodgers won't handle that well. Like, at all.

 

[lancerman]

The problem is a lot of people are looking at Rodgers today while thinking he's the Rodgers of even three years ago. Are the Jets better with him over Wilson? Absolutely. But are they that much more dominant head-to-head? I don't know about that.

I think the first time he starts getting frustrated, I think he'll have a handful of guys in the locker room he'll be friends with, and he'll alienate others. I think White will need to sign elsewhere because if he comes back, if Rodgers struggles, Jets fans will turn on him and start chanting White's name. If that happens, I feel like Rodgers won't handle that well. Like, at all.

Just from my perspective (which tbf I'm completely insane) there was a sequence at the end of the first Jets game where Wilson did absolutely nothing on multiple possession while the Pats were kind of crapping the game away on offense. We won by 5 points. Rodgers imo wins that game. The second Jets game was a 10-3 game. Rodgers put up 24 on us with an offense I don't think is better than the Jets.

Rodgers is a headcase, but he's not going to turn into a pumpkin either. He can still be at worst average. Average is enough for the Jets and frankly we still got a break if he's merely average. That's the problem. The Jets didn't finish ahead of us this year because of two games I would be stunned if Rodgers lost in the same position and because of an implosion down the stretch once they finally gave up on Wilson and realized they had nothing after him either.

 

[Ian]

Just from my perspective (which tbf I'm completely insane) there was a sequence at the end of the first Jets game where Wilson did absolutely nothing on multiple possession while the Pats were kind of crapping the game away on offense. We won by 5 points. Rodgers imo wins that game. The second Jets game was a 10-3 game.

I don’t disagree, but at the same time last year was an anomaly that shouldn’t be as bad this year. Although, if it is, then you’ll be right.

Rodgers put up 24 on us with an offense I don't think is better than the Jets.

He also almost (and should have) lost that game to Zappe. He sleepwalked through most of that game and I think Hoyer might have beaten him had he not been concussed, or had the coaches just ignored Zappe being a rookie and just kept calling his number.

Rodgers is a headcase, but he's not going to turn into a pumpkin either. He can still be at worst average. Average is enough for the Jets and frankly we still got a break if he's merely average. That's the problem. The Jets didn't finish ahead of us this year because of two games I would be stunned if Rodgers lost in the same position and because of an implosion down the stretch once they finally gave up on Wilson and realized they had nothing after him either.

Rodgers has had his moments where he’s fallen apart and his demeanor during a lot of his press conferences the last two seasons - especially last year - have been really bad.

Again, reports out of Green Bay seemed to indicate they had some concerns about his drive and work ethic. And I think there’s some truth to it. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but I don’t go into those games feeling like the Patriots won’t have a shot to win them.

Again, historically, he just never seems to play at a high level against us for some reason. And that game against Brady and the Bucs in the postseason two years go sticks in my head. He looked like a deer in headlights and doesn’t seem like he’s got the same confidence. He’s got the arrogance, but the confidence doesn’t seem to be there.

 

[crawhammer]

I hear what you're saying, but New England needs to win 10 or 11 games next season, regardless and they'll control their own destiny by winning the head-to-head games against the Jets. The bigger question, oddly enough, will be what happens with Buffalo with the financial mess they're in right now. They might be the ones poised for the bigger slide this season, which is going to be interesting.

Josh Allen is too good. He's well on his way to being the best dual threat QB in the history of the league. He's 26 with 5 years of experience and his best seasons are still ahead of him. He's going to be a major obstacle for the rest of the division for some time to come.

 

[Wozzy]

Josh Allen is too good. He's well on his way to being the best dual threat QB in the history of the league. He's 26 with 5 years of experience and his best seasons are still ahead of him. He's going to be a major obstacle for the rest of the division for some time to come.

Even though the Bills signed Josh Allen to a contract two years ago, they did exactly what the Chiefs did with Mahomes massive contract. The first two years of the deal were cap friendly, the cap hits were minimal because they kicked a lot of the debt into the future.

This year (2023) is the first season where his cap hit really escalates (39.8 million cap hit), so while Josh Allen is now a fully developed QB and a dangerous player... the Bill's team is going to have to start making tough choices on their own free agents and have a harder time signing them. Their overall team will get weaker if they have trouble stringing together quality drafts and replacing outgoing free agents who priced themselves out of town with cheaper rookie talent. We'll see how they do at it.

So far they had Allen on a rookie deal, a gigantic advantage in overall team building, and they have zero rings to show for it. The Bills got bounced yet again in the playoffs, Allen didn't play particularly well either. I'm not scared of the Bills, and no Patriot fan should be either if the Pat's do their jobs this offseason. With a great offseason and the Pats will compete in the AFC.

 

[Wozzy]

They didn’t build all those hotels in the middle of the desert by being wrong more often than right.

The draft hasn't happened yet, free agency hasn't started yet... and the Vegas line moves all the time.

Also Vegas doesn't know everything even after all that happens. It's how I put $100 down before the season started in 2019 for the 49ers to win the NFC and won $2200. I looked at their loaded roster and saw value.

In order to have “another” great offseason, you first have to have one.

They had a great draft and offseason the past two years. Last season hiring Patricia to run the offense was a massive error on Bill's part, but talent wasn't the problem.

 

[IcyPatriot]

As Frank from Glocester used to say .... "I laid big coin" ...
Thanks Frank ... RIP ... and I will.

It's worth at least a $100 bet ... can think of worse ways to was a C-note.

 

[crawhammer]

Even though the Bills signed Josh Allen to a contract two years ago, they did exactly what the Chiefs did with Mahomes massive contract. The first two years of the deal were cap friendly, the cap hits were minimal because they kicked a lot of the debt into the future.

This year (2023) is the first season where his cap hit really escalates (39.8 million cap hit), so while Josh Allen is now a fully developed QB and a dangerous player... the Bill's team is going to have to start making tough choices on their own free agents and have a harder time signing them. Their overall team will get weaker if they have trouble stringing together quality drafts and replacing outgoing free agents who priced themselves out of town with cheaper rookie talent. We'll see how they do at it.

Well said.

So far they had Allen on a rookie deal, a gigantic advantage in overall team building, and they have zero rings to show for it.

You lose me here.

From 2000 to 2018 the Bills had 3 seasons above .500, 0 first place finishes, and an 0-1 postseason record.

Since then, 2019-2022, with Allen the Bills have won at least 10 games, made the postseason each season, and have won the division 3 straight years. While no rings, they have a lot to show for it.

I'm not scared of the Bills, and no Patriot fan should be either if the Pat's do their jobs this offseason. With a great offseason and the Pats will compete in the AFC.

With a "great" offseason, we'll see what the respective teams look like, but at the conclusion of the 2022 season, the Patriots were well behind the Bills.

Beyond the division, if you're looking at the entire AFC, then the task of getting into contention is going to be very difficult for at least the 2023 season.

 

[patfanken]

When was the last time patriots were picked to finish last in their division? Maybe pre 2000?

2001

 

[Wozzy]

You lose me here.

From 2000 to 2018 the Bills had 3 seasons above .500, 0 first place finishes, and an 0-1 postseason record.

Since then, 2019-2022, with Allen the Bills have won at least 10 games, made the postseason each season, and have won the division 3 straight years. While no rings, they have a lot to show for it.

Sean McDermott took over as coach in 2017, Beane took over as GM. Instantly they won 9 games and went to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. Tyrod Taylor was the QB, Josh Allen was nowhere to be found.

It generally takes 2-3 seasons for a new regime to fix cap issues and get all their players in place... to rebuild. Coaching and GM alone instantly made them better, and it wasn’t simply the addition of Allen that made them contenders… he sucked for his first two seasons and they still made the playoffs. They also added Tremaine Edmunds, Poyer, Tredavious White, Diggs etc… exceptional players along with all the quality depth players who improved all three phases.

You only see the QB, it wasn’t one player, it was all the improvements.

With a "great" offseason, we'll see what the respective teams look like, but at the conclusion of the 2022 season, the Patriots were well behind the Bills.

Beyond the division, if you're looking at the entire AFC, then the task of getting into contention is going to be very difficult for at least the 2023 season.

2022 was not a normal season, BB made a massive error with his coaching staff. It was a vain idiotic mistake. They fixed that mistake. We’ll see what happens if they have another great offseason personnel wise. Coaching matters, one magic player doesn’t control an entire teams destiny.

 

[sb1]

2001

Going into 2021 I saw a prediction the Pats would not only finish last they would also be picking first overall in the draft. Might have been from Schatz.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Jalen Ramsey to dolphins.
If Rogers goes to jets, Vegas will be correct

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Doesn't take a genius to workout that the worst QB (assuming Rodgers to Jets) and worst roster in the Division would be expected to be the worst team.

 

[Fatmancryin]

I don’t see the Patriots contending for at least another 2-3 years. As it stands right now are they one of the top 7 teams in the AFC?

If the jets get Rodgers or a capable QB they are last in the division.

Don’t see how they can get better with FA, trade and the draft that would be in the conversation for top 7 in the afc.

 

[Fatmancryin]

Doesn't take a genius to workout that the worst QB (assuming Rodgers to Jets) and worst roster in the Division would be expected to be the worst team.

I am hoping that they offer Mac to the Raiders for 2nd and 4th. The raiders are most likely going to miss out on a QB this year unless they give a kings ransom to move up.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

The Dolphins just went out & got Ramsey for a 3rd & a backup TE Hunter Long

Tip of the cap to the dolphins, we should have done this.