Patriots comp pick watch

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Dec 6th

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ctpatsfan77

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As of March 16, the Pats have lost five qualifying agents:

  • Nate Solder, 3rd, $15M
  • Malcolm Butler, 3rd, $12.2M
  • Danny Amendola, 5th/6th, $6M
  • Dion Lewis, 6th, $5M
  • Johnson Bademosi, 6th/7th, $3.1M
Today they signed three FAs that could qualify:
  • Adrian Clayborn, $6M
  • Jeremy Hill, ???
  • Matt Tobin, ???
Given that Tobin's last contract was for less than $1M per year, it's quite possible that (A) he will not make the 53 and/or (B) his contract won't be large enough to qualify. Ditto, we don't have the numbers for Hill yet.

If all of them qualify, then:
  • Clayborn will cancel out Amendola.
  • Hill and Tobin will cancel out Lewis and Bademosi in some order.
That would leave the Patriots with the two 3s for Solder and Butler, but no other picks.

My best prediction at the moment is that Hill will qualify but Tobin will not (50-50 odds he qualifies, and about the same that he makes the roster). Since I suspect that Hill will get less than $3M per year, my prediction, as of today, is that the Pats are in line for two 3s and a 6.
 

luuked

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As of March 16, the Pats have lost five qualifying agents:

  • Nate Solder, 3rd, $15M
  • Malcolm Butler, 3rd, $12.2M
  • Danny Amendola, 5th/6th, $6M
  • Dion Lewis, 6th, $5M
  • Johnson Bademosi, 6th/7th, $3.1M
Today they signed three FAs that could qualify:
  • Adrian Clayborn, $6M
  • Jeremy Hill, ???
  • Matt Tobin, ???
Given that Tobin's last contract was for less than $1M per year, it's quite possible that (A) he will not make the 53 and/or (B) his contract won't be large enough to qualify. Ditto, we don't have the numbers for Hill yet.

If all of them qualify, then:
  • Clayborn will cancel out Amendola.
  • Hill and Tobin will cancel out Lewis and Bademosi in some order.
That would leave the Patriots with the two 3s for Solder and Butler, but no other picks.

My best prediction at the moment is that Hill will qualify but Tobin will not (50-50 odds he qualifies, and about the same that he makes the roster). Since I suspect that Hill will get less than $3M per year, my prediction, as of today, is that the Pats are in line for two 3s and a 6.

Dont take it personal but I dont understand the entire point of this thread. All we need is a sticky that links to Korte's page: Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

He has nailed comp picks for over a decade to the point. No need for any further commentary on that..

EDIT: Nevermind @ctpatsfan77 I really didnt consider that the majority here still has no clue how any of it works or where to get the info. @maineman209 pointed it out to me. On that level this thread really is a good idea to explain to people how it all works. Great Job !
 
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maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Dont take it personal but I dont understand the entire point of this thread. All we need is a sticky that links to Korte's page: Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

He has nailed comp picks for over a decade to the point. No need for any further commentary on that..

Just keep in mind how many forum members are severely research-challenged. Then, think of threads like this as their short bus.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Or Flowers.

While it seems entirely possible that one, or both, of Fleming/Waddle could yet see a contract in the $6M/apy range, I have a feeling that M.Flowers may not be seeing offers that would take him out of the Pats price range - which I'd guess would be somewhere between what Slater got for 2017 ($1.8M) and what Bademosi just got.
 

luuked

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While it seems entirely possible that one, or both, of Fleming/Waddle could yet see a contract in the $6M/apy range, I have a feeling that M.Flowers may not be seeing offers that would take him out of the Pats price range - which I'd guess would be somewhere between what Slater got for 2017 ($1.8M) and what Bademosi just got.

He will most probably cancel out whatever Tobin got. Potentially even Hill.

In the end I guess the key thing to consider is to protect the 3rd round picks. While the sixth rounders are nice ammunition to move around or pick swaps that involve trades I see their face value as mostly priority UDFAs. Yes, of course you can hit it on a sixth rounder but there is a good chance that player would have been a UDFA contact for you anyway. At that point of the draft there is long no consensus anymore..
 

patsbrasilpatriotas

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
So if we sign another 1m player he will cancell Butler? (Let's pretend that Waddle, Fleming and other will remain with us)
 

mgteich

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While it seems entirely possible that one, or both, of Fleming/Waddle could yet see a contract in the $6M/apy range, I have a feeling that M.Flowers may not be seeing offers that would take him out of the Pats price range - which I'd guess would be somewhere between what Slater got for 2017 ($1.8M) and what Bademosi just got.
I certainly hope that I'm wrong, but I believe that we'll be outbid for Flowers.
 

DaBruinz

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As of March 16, the Pats have lost five qualifying agents:

  • Nate Solder, 3rd, $15M
  • Malcolm Butler, 3rd, $12.2M
  • Danny Amendola, 5th/6th, $6M
  • Dion Lewis, 6th, $5M
  • Johnson Bademosi, 6th/7th, $3.1M
Today they signed three FAs that could qualify:
  • Adrian Clayborn, $6M
  • Jeremy Hill, ???
  • Matt Tobin, ???
Given that Tobin's last contract was for less than $1M per year, it's quite possible that (A) he will not make the 53 and/or (B) his contract won't be large enough to qualify. Ditto, we don't have the numbers for Hill yet.

If all of them qualify, then:
  • Clayborn will cancel out Amendola.
  • Hill and Tobin will cancel out Lewis and Bademosi in some order.
That would leave the Patriots with the two 3s for Solder and Butler, but no other picks.

My best prediction at the moment is that Hill will qualify but Tobin will not (50-50 odds he qualifies, and about the same that he makes the roster). Since I suspect that Hill will get less than $3M per year, my prediction, as of today, is that the Pats are in line for two 3s and a 6.

It's unlikely that Hill or Tobin's contracts will even be enough to qualify for the compensation equation,. imho..
 

28222

On the Roster
It's unlikely that Hill or Tobin's contracts will even be enough to qualify for the compensation equation,. imho..
Agree. It wouldn’t surprise me if a portion of the interest in Tobin and Hill (and perhaps other camp lottery tickets to come) is based on the contract value not impacting the cancellation chart. Fill in the 90 with those types and hope to hit on a couple that might stick.
Getting 4 picks is important to replace the 2 we have traded in 2019 plus add 2 additional trade chips for vets to plug 2018 holes (injury or otherwise) given how that practice is trending in the league.

Now watch the money qualify both players for the formula and blow this whole argument up...
 

ctpatsfan77

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It's unlikely that Hill or Tobin's contracts will even be enough to qualify for the compensation equation,. imho..

Hill's coming off a rookie deal, so I have no idea. I'm a bit more confident re: Tobin, since he's coming off a non-rookie deal that was essentially vet minimum.
 

mgteich

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Agree. It wouldn’t surprise me if a portion of the interest in Tobin and Hill (and perhaps other camp lottery tickets to come) is based on the contract value not impacting the cancellation chart. Fill in the 90 with those types and hope to hit on a couple that might stick.
Getting 4 picks is important to replace the 2 we have traded in 2019 plus add 2 additional trade chips for vets to plug 2018 holes (injury or otherwise) given how that practice is trending in the league.

Now watch the money qualify both players for the formula and blow this whole argument up...


The patriots are not signing scrubs so that they can retain 2019 picks at the end of the 6th round or later. They are signing players they believe will be competitive in camp. If they see a player who could be a serious competitor, they would forfeit the 6th's in a heartbeat.

HOWEVER, I would agree that the 3rd's are a consideration.

BTW, Flowers and someone else are likely to sign qualifying offers (Waddle, Fleming or Slater).
 
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28222

On the Roster
The patriots are not signing scrubs so that they can retain 2019 picks at the end of the 6th round or later. They are signing player they believe will be competitive in camp. If they see a player who could be a serious competitor, they would forfeit the 6th's in a heartbeat.

HOWEVER, I would agree that the 3rd's are a consideration.

BTW, Flowers and someone else are likely to sign qualifying offers (Waddle, Fleming or Slater).
I agree... that’s why I pointed out that a portion, not all, of the interest in some of the pickups to come will have the formula in mind. I’m not claiming any absolutes here that you may have perceived.
I was merely trying to point out that if there are players with APY’s just above and others just below, BB will likely opt for the budget route as part of asset management... that it will impact decision making.

If there is another Adrian Clayborn opportunity to upgrade a thin positional group, obviously they can and should go after it.
 

ctpatsfan77

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Update, March 21, 2018:

Matt Tobin's contract, as I predicted, is too small to qualify (it's vet minimum).

Moreover, it appears that Ricky Jean-Francois may sign a qualifying contract.

So we now have qualifying FA losses:
  • Nate Solder, 3rd, $15M
  • Malcolm Butler, 3rd, $12.2M
  • Danny Amendola, 5th/6th, $6M
  • Dion Lewis, 6th, $5M
  • Johnson Bademosi, 6th/7th, $3.1M
  • Ricky Jean-Francois, 7th, ???
Qualifying FA gains:
  • Adrian Clayborn, $6M
  • Jeremy Hill, $1.5M
  • Matt Tobin does NOT qualify
Importantly, if Jean-Francois's contract qualifies, one of two things will happen:
  • If it's smaller than Bademosi's, Hill will cancel out Jean-Francois, and the Pats will be in line for a pick for Bademosi.
  • If it's larger than Bademosi's, Hill will cancel out Bademosi, and the Pats will get a pick for Jean-Francois.
The best-case scenario for the Pats, as of today, is two 3s and two 6s. I'll be a bit less optimistic right now, and predict two 3s, a 6, and a 7.
 

mgteich

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Someone will sign at least a couple of our remaining free agents.

Update, March 21, 2018:

Matt Tobin's contract, as I predicted, is too small to qualify (it's vet minimum).

Moreover, it appears that Ricky Jean-Francois may sign a qualifying contract.

So we now have qualifying FA losses:
  • Nate Solder, 3rd, $15M
  • Malcolm Butler, 3rd, $12.2M
  • Danny Amendola, 5th/6th, $6M
  • Dion Lewis, 6th, $5M
  • Johnson Bademosi, 6th/7th, $3.1M
  • Ricky Jean-Francois, 7th, ???
Qualifying FA gains:
  • Adrian Clayborn, $6M
  • Jeremy Hill, $1.5M
  • Matt Tobin does NOT qualify
Importantly, if Jean-Francois's contract qualifies, one of two things will happen:
  • If it's smaller than Bademosi's, Hill will cancel out Jean-Francois, and the Pats will be in line for a pick for Bademosi.
  • If it's larger than Bademosi's, Hill will cancel out Bademosi, and the Pats will get a pick for Jean-Francois.
The best-case scenario for the Pats, as of today, is two 3s and two 6s. I'll be a bit less optimistic right now, and predict two 3s, a 6, and a 7.
 
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