OT-ish: The gambling thread

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It's an article by Cody Benjamin who picked 5 games-
Pitt +6 vs Pats
KC -4 at Jax
NYG +7 at Dal
Phil -8.5 home vs Wash
Cle -5.5 home vs Tenn

Man would I laugh if Cleveland gets waxed in their home opener after so much chest thumping.

I don’t understand the KC line. That would put KC 7 points better than JAX on a neutral field. I would think KC should be a bigger favorite and like that pick. If you’re only picking your five most confident games, Pittsburgh over New England with any spread seems foolish. It’s like picking New England -7 at Miami as your lock pick. Clearly there’s a psychological edge with some of these matchups/stadiums.

 

[Vatahala]

I wish they would have more negative bets on certain players.
For example the Bears currently at 10-1 to win SB lead all teams in money bet to win it all. I don't think Trubisky is any good so if he doesn't finish in the top ten MVP voting what odds would I get.
Shouldn't I be able to bet that Sam Darnold won't be a top 15 QB?

 

[maust]

Is that CBS Sportsline’s official prediction or just some rando giving his opinion? I don’t blame them for taking the safer choice with the +6, but it’s awfully early to be getting paid for this kind of BS content. Any one of us could write up reasons for both giving and taking the points in that game. Talk about a nice gig.

Cody F'n Benjamin SB Nation, CBS stringer who doesn't even make there abysmal 'experts panel' lineup. You know, the 'expert panel' that sports something like one or two guys out of 8 or 9 (or however many it is) that manage to finish with winning records ATS every year? Kid can't even crack that lineup of under achievers. Speaking of which, how the hell does Pete Prisco keep a job? You could pretty much print money just going the opposite of his pics. If I am on the fence about making a particular play one of my litmus tests is looking to see if Prisco has made the same pick. If he has I run screaming in the opposite direction.

 

[supafly]

Cody F'n Benjamin SB Nation, CBS stringer who doesn't even make there abysmal 'experts panel' lineup. You know, the 'expert panel' that sports something like one or two guys out of 8 or 9 (or however many it is) that manage to finish with winning records ATS every year? Kid can't even crack that lineup of under achievers. Speaking of which, how the hell does Pete Prisco keep a job? You could pretty much print money just going the opposite of his pics. If I am on the fence about making a particular play one of my litmus tests is looking to see if Prisco has made the same pick. If he is I run screaming in the opposite direction.

I was actually paying 10 bucks a month for an “edge” membership over at The Action Network, until their suggested picks for the day went 0-7. Luckily, I didn’t stick around long enough for their worthless numbers and opinions to sink in too deeply.

I’m plenty capable of going 0-7 on my own. I don’t need to subscribe to a numbers service to do so.

 

[supafly]

Had to use the “cash out” option for only the second or third time, tonight. My last book didn’t have nearly as many live game options, so it’s still something of a new concept to me.

I had WAS tonight and they were up 1-0 in the eighth. They had pulled Strasburg and the reliever loaded the bases with nobody out. I lost half my initial wager, but it still saved me 50% of my bet.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Anyone have a take on this season prop on Bovada?

2019-2020 Most Regular Season Team Sacks

New England (50 to 1 - 22nd)

The closest the pats have come recently was 2015 when they were 2nd in sacks behind Denver. Granted they had Chandler Jones.

The value seems pretty good there but it's tough to lead the league in sacks without a premier pass rusher. They'd need Bennett, Collins, Winovich & others to have around 6-8 each.

 

[fightingirish595]

Words of Wisdom: You're not a true gambling degenerate until you find yourself still up at 4:00 at night on a Saturday (or, at that point, I guess it's Sunday morning) listening to the internet broadcast of Hawaii Warriors football on your cell phone because that was the last game of the day and it is your make-or-break moment of your weekend trying to recover all the money you lost earlier in the day. Fortunately, we should not have to stay up quite so late this particular weekend to get the Hawaii final. Anyway, the picks...

Florida -7
AZ/Hawaii O73

Lol I don’t make it to 4 am cuz I’m too drunk. But I bet hawaii multiple times last year. There games are usually on cbs sports network btw

There is a degenerate gambler at CBS Sportsline who just posted regular season week 1 picks.
He recommends taking the Steelers witb 6 points.

Lol sportsline. Can’t stand them. They really think they are doing something when they pick a winner of a golf tournament after 2 rounds are completed. Take 6 points in an nfl game? Yikes. This is going to sound messed up but I call this the death angle. It almost always works. If there is a death associated with the team, that team almost always wins. Of course it’s not 100 percent but It works for me quite a bit. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to work for the Steelers. If that spread remains 6, I’ll lay the 6

 

[Tb12goesinya]

I really like Atl 40-1.. the defense was young when they played us, last year they were decimated by injuries. Still well within their prime window. Grady Jarret expected to take a step up into the star category. Drafted 2 first round lineman to play with Mathews and Mack. Obviously very well suited with offensive skill. I think within first few weeks of the season there is a significant chance people are saying "wow how did we forgot about them, they are the class of the NFC"


Week 1 - Giants +7.5 and ml vs Cowboys

The consensus feel is that it's another year of Eli and the Giants have sucked. While Dallas won a playoff game last year. BUT

I think for opening week vs rival Cowboys the Giants will be ready to play after an entire camp of preaching teamwork and accountability after trading Beckham. Also all the negativity spewed towards Jones. I think the Giants come out sharp and inspired. Meanwhile the identity of the Cowboys is that running game and you have Zeke holding out with 2 years left. I think the Giants chemistry cultivated over the summer pays dividends, for 1 week at least.

 

[fightingirish595]

I really like Atl 40-1.. the defense was young when they played us, last year they were decimated by injuries. Still well within their prime window. Grady Jarret expected to take a step up into the star category. Drafted 2 first round lineman to play with Mathews and Mack. Obviously very well suited with offensive skill. I think within first few weeks of the season there is a significant chance people are saying "wow how did we forgot about them, they are the class of the NFC"


Week 1 - Giants +7.5 and ml vs Cowboys

The consensus feel is that it's another year of Eli and the Giants have sucked. While Dallas won a playoff game last year. BUT

I think for opening week vs rival Cowboys the Giants will be ready to play after an entire camp of preaching teamwork and accountability after trading Beckham. Also all the negativity spewed towards Jones. I think the Giants come out sharp and inspired. Meanwhile the identity of the Cowboys is that running game and you have Zeke holding out with 2 years left. I think the Giants chemistry cultivated over the summer pays dividends, for 1 week at least.

I agree about Atlanta. Lots of value there. Injuries really killed them the last 2 years. That teams got a ton of talent.

Taking 7.5 in a division game especially in week 1 seems like a very smart move

 

[fightingirish595]

Falcons plus 7.5 and raiders plus 7 55 to win 50

 

[XLIX]

I banged the GB Over 40 once I heard they were... well... playing on an 80 yard field….

 

[jmt57]

Anyone have a take on this season prop on Bovada?

2019-2020 Most Regular Season Team Sacks

New England (50 to 1 - 22nd)

The closest the pats have come recently was 2015 when they were 2nd in sacks behind Denver. Granted they had Chandler Jones.

The value seems pretty good there but it's tough to lead the league in sacks without a premier pass rusher. They'd need Bennett, Collins, Winovich & others to have around 6-8 each.

The Patriot defense looks very solid thus far.

The risk/reward at first glance looks nice as well.


However, Belichick's defensive philosophy has - up to this point in time - been to emphasize reducing the opponent's big plays, rather than making a big defensive play. To him it is a waiting game: at some point the opposing offense will make a mistake, resulting in a turnover or punt.

Sacks are the end result of the opposite style of coaching strategy. Rather than being patient and waiting for a mistake, the concept of coaches who thrive on blitzes and sacks is to be aggressive, not patient.


As far as I know the only time a Bill Belichick coached team led the league in sacks was in 1985 (Leonard Marshall: 13.5; Lawrence Taylor, 13; George Martin, 10). As good as this Pats D is, they don't have LT or Marshall lining up.

I just can't foresee the Pats leading the NFL in this category. It sounds more like a Steelers/Ravens type of stat; a coach or team that is willing to take a large defensive risk for a big splash play, disregarding the potential consequence.

 

[supafly]

I banged the GB Over 40 once I heard they were... well... playing on an 80 yard field….

I immediately checked as soon as I heard too, but the number was sitting at 38.5 and I didn’t care for that extra half point. Wishing that I would’ve pulled the trigger.

 

[Brandon_Cox]

The over/under for the Pats Steelers is 51. With the way the Pats D is playing I've been banging the under. What am I missing?

 

[fightingirish595]

Falcons plus 7.5 and raiders plus 7 55 to win 50

The streak comes to an end.

I think I’m going to end up teasing the gators with an nfl team. I’m pretty confident the gators win. I just don’t know about laying 7. Both O lines are an unknown

 

[fightingirish595]

The over/under for the Pats Steelers is 51. With the way the Pats D is playing I've been banging the under. What am I missing?

Not sure. Recent history suggests that game will go under. Now the pats are without front. And the Steelers lost brown and bell. Bell was never that effective against us anyway. I guess I’d worry about sloppiness since it’s the beginning of the year. I see that total dropping. In fact I think it may have opened at 53

 

[patsinthesnow]

The Patriot defense looks very solid thus far.

The risk/reward at first glance looks nice as well.


However, Belichick's defensive philosophy has - up to this point in time - been to emphasize reducing the opponent's big plays, rather than making a big defensive play. To him it is a waiting game: at some point the opposing offense will make a mistake, resulting in a turnover or punt.

Sacks are the end result of the opposite style of coaching strategy. Rather than being patient and waiting for a mistake, the concept of coaches who thrive on blitzes and sacks is to be aggressive, not patient.


As far as I know the only time a Bill Belichick coached team led the league in sacks was in 1985 (Leonard Marshall: 13.5; Lawrence Taylor, 13; George Martin, 10). As good as this Pats D is, they don't have LT or Marshall lining up.

I just can't foresee the Pats leading the NFL in this category. It sounds more like a Steelers/Ravens type of stat; a coach or team that is willing to take a large defensive risk for a big splash play, disregarding the potential consequence.

Great info. Thanks

 

[jmt57]

The over/under for the Pats Steelers is 51. With the way the Pats D is playing I've been banging the under. What am I missing?

Between the way the Patriot defense is playing right now, and Pittsburgh losing Antonio Brown (and to a lesser extent, Le'Veon Bell), on the surface I agree - it would seem that this should be a lower scoring game than past Patriots-Steelers games. The Pats have started slow the last couple of Septembers as well (though in some cases that has meant a lot of points by the opponent).

You know the financial investment disclaimer, past performance is no guarantee of future results - but here are the most recent scores between the two teams, with dates and point totals:

27 -- 12/26/2018
51 -- 12/17/2017
53 -- 1/22/2017
43 -- 10/23/2016
49 -- 9/10/2015
86 -- 11/3/2013
42 -- 10/30/2011
65 -- 11/14/2010
43 -- 11/30/2008
47 -- 12/9/2007
43 -- 9/25/2005

Also for your analysis, scores of all games played by the Patriots in September over the last ten years, as well as all games played by Pittsburgh in September over the last ten years.

Historically, both teams are under that point total more often than over.

 

[signbabybrady]

I'm in Saratoga this weekend. Anyone got any winners?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

If you're betting Heisman bet 1000++

Last 10 years or so have all been players not known to the casual