That’s what I thought too, but there actually appears to be some value on some of these. I know that it sounds ridiculous, but here’s what I’m learning thus far:
—there appears to be some value on the unders. Maybe it’s just coincidence, but I’ve hit a few unders so far. I’m not carrying this idea over to week 4 though, as I think we may be more likely to see higher scoring games due to the quality of product on the field from guys who won’t be making the team.
—John Harbaugh has now won his past 16 straight preseason games. That tells me that BAL takes these a bit more seriously than the average coach.
—I’ve also been careful to check the QB depth charts 1-3 for each team. For example, I believe that our top three QBs are going to look better than most of the others. Again, I don’t know that I’d expect much of anything for week 4, as it is such a crap shoot.
—Following local news is helpful. For example, Chicago’s coach made everyone aware that they wouldn’t be using their starters the last game (or maybe it was the week before), and they announced this close to kickoff. That’s big. Another example is Indy announcing that neither Luck nor Brisset would be playing tomorrow, and yet they’re still -2.5 favorites. If the line goes up to -3 (or I can simply add an extra half point in exchange for worse odds, which the lack of options is pissing me off with both books that I’m using) I may take a shot with Indy’s opponent. Another example is SF announcing that Garroppolo is not only going to play the entire first half, but also may start the 3rd quarter. I haven’t checked the opponent or specifics of the line, but something like that can potentially be helpful.
One final example would be the NFL announcement that the OAK/GB game would be played on an 80 yd field. I didn’t pull the trigger because it was at 38.5 (again with the inability to purchase 1/2 point. Wtf) but the thought there was that the over was more prone to hitting. The final was 22-21, and the scoring slowed up significantly in the last 20 mins of the game, so the framework of the idea was there.
