OT: Christian McCaffery deal to San Fran

[SHOWTIME15]

Niners will look like absolute fools to re-sign Jimmy on a multi-year deal after giving up multiple firsts for Lance. And I doubt Jimmy will go back to SF for anything less than multiple years. There is a market for him elsewhere and there will ESPECIALLY be a market for him elsewhere if he goes on a deep run this year.

I know, but say in the event (unlikely but possible) that Jimmy wins the SB, do you just get rid of him? Lance has shown nothing so far. If Jimmy has a long playoff run and leaves via FA, and Lance ends up being a bust for SF next year, Lynch and Shanny are going to get fired...

 

[Rob0729]

If I'm the niners I'd be trying to see if I can keep Jimmy G another year. He's not "elite" but has shown he can at least win games. Lance is an unknown and now coming off an injury. If Jimmy leaves next year and lance looks like a bust, coaching staff could be on the hot seat

If Lance is still backing up Garoppolo in Lance's third year in the league, Lynch and Shanahan are probably going to lose your job. You don't use three first round picks for a back up QB.

 

[mgcolby]

Well this saves the 49ers organization a **** ton of money. They can now lay off their entire scouting department for the next two years.

 

[Ross12]

If Lance is still backing up Garoppolo in Lance's third year in the league, Lynch and Shanahan are probably going to lose your job. You don't use three first round picks for a back up QB.

Exactly… there’s no way. The only way they sign Jimmy again is if he takes them to a title or the cusp of a title. But if he does that, his market is going to be hot and they’ll have to pay him a pretty penny to stay, and then that means Lance is basically just the backup for the foreseeable future, so they’ll have to get rid of him and who will even take him for more than maybe one first when he’s shown nothing and is coming off a season ending injury?

 

[amfootball]

If Lance is still backing up Garoppolo in Lance's third year in the league, Lynch and Shanahan are probably going to lose your job. You don't use three first round picks for a back up QB.

They will just trade Lance. They have done a great job with the roster but like so many teams they keep missing on the QB. I think they are going to end up signing Jimmy and then draft another QB. They really don't have any other choice unless they still want to keep giving Lance chances 3 years in.

 

[maust]

A healthy McCaffery is a hella fit in an offense with Deebo, Kittle, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk. But a casual perusal of SF's depth chart shows the real gamble the Niners are taking isn't on McCaffery's health but on Garoppolo's. If they don't address the backup QB position they are one fragile Jimmy moment from having 2022 Mr Irrelevant Brock Purdy under center. There's nothing in Jimmy GQ's history that indicates betting the farm on his durability is a sound investment. Honestly, if you had to bet on it does anyone doubt that fragile Jimmy moment seems inevitable?

 

[Love The Drake]

If Lamar sniffs free agency without pick compensation what better spot for him than San Fran?

 

[varjao]

Part of me wonders if this is them going “all in” this year, or if it’s more about having a great back to take pressure off of Lance the next several years.

both, they are bringing a good player to their team under contract for a few more years. Hopefully he will get some extra motivation with a fresh start in a good city, playing for the Panthers must suck

 

[Rob0729]

They will just trade Lance. They have done a great job with the roster but like so many teams they keep missing on the QB. I think they are going to end up signing Jimmy and then draft another QB. They really don't have any other choice unless they still want to keep giving Lance chances 3 years in.

You think they can get away with what would be ending up trading three first round picks for a 2023 fourth or fifth round pick? It would still go down as one of the worst trades in NFL history. Lance will have little trade value after this season. People already were questioning if he was going to be a legitimate NFL starting QB before he was injured.

I don't don't know if Garoppolo will want to re-sign with the 49ers. They jerked him around for the last few years. He only re-signed with them because they gave him the best deal. Not sure if that would be the case if the 49ers won the Super Bowl.

The question is how much longer is the 49ers going to be a contender. They have traded away their draft future especially if they give up on Lance. That would mean they gave up three firsts for nothing and have no draft picks in the first two days next year. A lot of their players are going to get too old or too expensive over the next few years.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I know, but say in the event (unlikely but possible) that Jimmy wins the SB, do you just get rid of him? Lance has shown nothing so far. If Jimmy has a long playoff run and leaves via FA, and Lance ends up being a bust for SF next year, Lynch and Shanny are going to get fired...

I think the fact that they won the SB in this scenario would give Lynch and Shanny a bit more rope. After all, they just point to the fact that they assembled all the other talent that got them there.

 

[jimnance]

Exactly… there’s no way. The only way they sign Jimmy again is if he takes them to a title or the cusp of a title. But if he does that, his market is going to be hot and they’ll have to pay him a pretty penny to stay, and then that means Lance is basically just the backup for the foreseeable future, so they’ll have to get rid of him and who will even take him for more than maybe one first when he’s shown nothing and is coming off a season ending injury?

Ross, I don't think anybody would give up a 1st for Lance. Or even a 2nd. He's a long-term project

 

[Kontradiction]

Didn’t really expect KC to go after him seriously. They don’t need him, and could benefit much more by signing OBJ. I’m just happy Buffalo didn’t get him. That would have taken care of their only remaining obvious need.

 

[BelizePats]

Lynch and Shanny and dead men walking. They just don't know it. That overpay is beyond baffling.

 

[Ross12]

Ross, I don't think anybody would give up a 1st for Lance. Or even a 2nd. He's a long-term project

I think a team who really needs a QB would do it. Maybe a team that needs a QB in a year or two and he can sit. One first isn’t a massive price. He will have two years absorbing the NFL from the sidelines at that point. I could be wrong.

 

[venecol]

So the 49ers are basically sitting out the 2023 draft. Their first pick next year will be in the fifth round.

WRONG

 

[venecol]

Lynch was already on the hot seat, but he really is now. Lance looks to be a bust. If McCaffery is constantly injured like he has been in recent years, that should be the final death knell in Lynch's reign as GM.

I'm not sure a GM that has been to the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons with a record of 4-2 with the 2 losses to the SB winners can be described as being in the final death knell. They are currently the #4 seed in the NFC and just acquired a difference maker for their offense.

Your take is a bit premature.

 

[Froob]

Awful trade. I doubt he'll even be healthy for the playoffs so this doesn't move the needle at all for me.

 

[Froob]

I'm not sure a GM that has been to the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons with a record of 4-2 with the 2 losses to the SB winners can be described as being in the final death knell. They are currently the #4 seed in the NFC and just acquired a difference maker for their offense.

Your take is a bit premature.

Shanny/Lynch team is only 42-45. They get a LOT of love from the media for a duo that is sub .500.

 

[PaulNEPats]

Horrible trade for SF. Dude is a walking injury.

 

[Bill Lee]

49ers paid too much for him based on his injuries.

Based in what he could be, they got a bargain.

That's the only way to see it depending on one's views of McCaffery - if I had to hazard a guess, I think they'll regret the trade when all is said and done, given how Shanahan's run game has been using low and mid-round draft picks for several years anyway (like father like son) and it unlikely he'll send them over the top.

Had this been Buffalo or even KC, we'd be having a different conversation.

I agree. They are trading away four future picks at low salaries for one oft-injured guy with a high salary and six years of mileage on the wheels. If any one of the picks become reliable starters, it's a win for the Panthers, and I like the one in four odds a lot. If any two hit, it's a clear win for the Panthers.

Part of me wonders if this is them going “all in” this year, or if it’s more about having a great back to take pressure off of Lance the next several years.

I'm not too sure I'd be projecting forward the next several years.

Christian McCaffrey - Injury History says he has a 10% chance getting injured in any particular game this season and an 84% chance of being injured at some point this season. I know no one can predict such things, it's just a statistical inference made from the overall history of injury in the league, but man, that is an injury risk if I've ever seen one. A lot of the injuries fall into the category of soft tissue injuries, which IMO are pretty scary.