OT: 2017 Degenerate Gambler Thread

[doesntmatter1]

You're bold. I'm far too superstitious to bet on Patriot games.

 

[fnordcircle]

I typically bet against them (only in big games) with the hopes I lose money. Which is merely to help soften the blow if things go wrong.

As long as you're still rooting to lose money this is a great way to go about it but I just prefer to make the wins all that sweeter if they cover.

I've only gotten annoyed about not covering once. ****ing jets.

 

[fnordcircle]

You're bold. I'm far too superstitious to bet on Patriot games.

I'm not rich enough to bet $1k a game so I won't be able to keep up this pace anyways. I mean, unless something crazy happens.

But seriously - there's not much of a more fun way to spend the after-victory buzz than shopping for stupid **** on the internet that are being paid for by the idiot who bet against the Pats covering.

 

[Joker]

Buncha goddyamed gambling degenerates in this thread. I can see it's time for Sheriff Joe Kerr and his trusty sidekick, Flim Flamington to investigate and confiscate all proceeds from ANY illegal criminal enterprise.

 

[dafoe2016]

I don't love the Pats at minus 9 without Edelman vs a good team.

The bets i take this week...

Atlanta @ Chicago -7 - I love to bet against bad teams even at home. Atlanta should blow their doors off.

Carolina @ San Fan -5.5 - I don't think Carolina is all that good but i like the 5.5. It isn't much different from 7 in certain ways but it means assuming Carolina wins (and I think they will) there are few ways they win that are less than 6 points. They would generally need to only win by a FG (seems pretty close for such a bad team) or 4 points (TDvFG difference). Both are possible but I see this at likely a 2 FG win.

I was tempted to take Pitt @ Cleveland too but the 8.5 is heavy for a team that was so bad away last year even vs the worst of the NFL.

Those are the only 2 spread bets I take but when it comes to O/U give me

NYG @ Dallas - 48 - under. Giants have a very very good D and a usually incompetent O that has no ability to run. Neither game between these 2 came within a TD of 48. This is my favorite bet this week. ***

Tampa Bay @ Miami - 41.5 - over - Both teams have play makers and bad Ds generally. Cutler will toss up a lot of balls deep and things will happen good and bad that will lead to points. Miami will have great weather and if Tampa ties out on D it could turn into a track meet. There will be some rain but I like the 41.5 too much here to pass it up for that.

Those would be my 4 bets.

You don't feel confident betting against Alex Smith and Andy Reid on the road, in prime time against the Super Bowl Champs and one of the best defense in the league?! That's as close to a lock as it gets.

 

[supafly]

whats the advantage of the local book vs online betting sites?

One of the biggest advantages would be the timeframe of the payout, as you can simply go to the local book/casino and cash your ticket as soon as the game ends.

If you're doing it through an online site, you need to formally request a withdrawal from your account, and by the time you get the check in hand, a good 3-4 weeks can often go by. Sometimes, even longer. Also, it's legal in Nevada where you can go to the local sports book, so that's a huge plus. The rest of us usually have to deal with offshore accounts from places outside of the U.S.

 

[fnordcircle]

whats the advantage of the local book vs online betting sites?

I get in my car, drive 3 minutes, get out, walk in with cash.

In 2 days I'll get back in my car, drive 3 minutes, get out, walk out with more cash.

 

[supafly]

You don't feel confident betting against Alex Smith and Andy Reid on the road, in prime time against the Super Bowl Champs and one of the best defense in the league?! That's as close to a lock as it gets.

Why do you bring up those two examples? Just curious. I can appreciate you liking the action on the game, but your examples aren't the greatest.

You bring up a coach who has historically won 70% of his games coming off a bye or opening a season, and you bring up the 2nd winningest QB in the AFC behind Tom Brady in the past few years.

 

[fnordcircle]

Yeah not to mention that rationale has like, nothing to do with the Patriots winning by 10...

 

[fnordcircle]

I don't think the Pats -9 is a lock by any stretch but they've been so great to me over the last 7 years, overall, that I'm just gonna ride them until Brady and Belichick are both gone or I'm too broke to gamble.

They've bought me some nice things over the years.

 

[Joker]

have them buy you a personality this year, Fnord the Greek

 

[Tony2046]

Why do you say that, Tony? I was actually considering it, myself.

I say that because I think Houston will destroy Jacksonville.

 

[Tony2046]

have them buy you a personality this year, Fnord the Greek

I'm not sure how much more personality Fnord can have.

 

[JPsPats]

I like the under 48.5 in the pats game, don't see Kc scoring much on us with a rookie rb and game manager at QB. I think the chiefs defence will keep it respectable, so two good defences I take the under and stay away from pats -9.

Also like the rams -3.5 over the colts and Carolina -5.5 over San Fran.

 

[dafoe2016]

Why do you bring up those two examples? Just curious. I can appreciate you liking the action on the game, but your examples aren't the greatest.

You bring up a coach who has historically won 70% of his games coming off a bye or opening a season, and you bring up the 2nd winningest QB in the AFC behind Tom Brady in the past few years.

Both of them get smaller as the games get bigger. The more attention, the more they love to shrink. And I'm not sold on that being a really good team anyway. Furthermore, I would imagine most teams are better coming off a bye. As for Reid's record, lets take a look at the teams he's faced in opening week since becoming the head coach for the Chiefs:

2013- Jaguars (4-12)
2014 Titans (2-14) A game they managed to lose, by the way
2015 Texans (9-7)
2016 Chargers (5-11)

That's a combined record of 20-44. I'm supposed to be impressed by winning 75% of those games? I'm supposed to extrapolate those numbers to a game against the Patriots? This is a completely different animal they are dealing with here. They are facing the best coach, QB and TE to ever play the game. A Patriots team that has had weeks to study and gameplan. On the road. In prime time. Where they tend to gag. Which is why I find it interesting that you mention they are the 2nd winningest QB in the AFC the past few years. Want to know how many playoff games he's won since Reid joined him in 2013? One. A beatdown of 9-7 (a barely above .500 team) Houston in 2017 before losing to the Patriots.

Honestly, I was thinking about the moneyline, not the points. I tend to bet the moneyline when it comes to the Pats. I may sit this one out. Not because I'm not confident, but because the moneyline is insane. It's nearly +600! Risk/reward ratio. But I have no good reason to think Smith and Reid can stand up to the bright lights of opening night in Foxborough and win a game against the best team in football. Could they keep it close enough to lose by seven? That's a lot more likely. If you put a gun to my head and made me pick one for my life I would have to take the Pats on points. This Chiefs team is overrated.

 

[supafly]

Both of them get smaller as the games get bigger. The more attention, the more they love to shrink. And I'm not sold on that being a really good team anyway. Furthermore, I would imagine most teams are better coming off a bye. As for Reid's record, lets take a look at the teams he's faced in opening week since becoming the head coach for the Chiefs:

2013- Jaguars (4-12)
2014 Titans (2-14) A game they managed to lose, by the way
2015 Texans (9-7)
2016 Chargers (5-11)

That's a combined record of 20-44. I'm supposed to be impressed by winning 75% of those games? I'm supposed to extrapolate those numbers to a game against the Patriots? This is a completely different animal they are dealing with here. They are facing the best coach, QB and TE to ever play the game. A Patriots team that has had weeks to study and gameplan. On the road. In prime time. Where they tend to gag. Which is why I find it interesting that you mention they are the 2nd winningest QB in the AFC the past few years. Want to know how many playoff games he's won since Reid joined him in 2013? One. A beatdown of 9-7 (a barely above .500 team) Houston in 2017 before losing to the Patriots.

Honestly, I was thinking about the moneyline, not the points. I tend to bet the moneyline when it comes to the Pats. I may sit this one out. Not because I'm not confident, but because the moneyline is insane. It's nearly +600! Risk/reward ratio. But I have no good reason to think Smith and Reid can stand up to the bright lights of opening night in Foxborough and win a game against the best team in football. Could they keep it close enough to lose by seven? That's a lot more likely. If you put a gun to my head and made me pick one for my life I would have to take the Pats on points. This Chiefs team is overrated.

Fair enough. I was speaking to Reid's career record in openers and bye weeks though, which I believe is only second to Belichick's. I hear what you're saying about the lack of competition since Reid has been HC at KC.

I agree with you that the value in the money line is rarely there with Pats games. I think you meant-500, not +500. At any rate, my book has the Pats listed as -600, so one would have to put up 600 bucks just for the shot at winning 100. I'm thinking about a 7 point teaser to take it down to -2, with adding the 7 to go under 56. As you know, I'd need to get them both, so I'm a bit hesitant, but I think that's the best play I can see.

 

[supafly]

I say that because I think Houston will destroy Jacksonville.

I think HOU will cover, too. Unfortunately, the line had already moved to -6 before I could place it, but I'm hoping it won't matter.

Of course, keep in mind any wager I place is only going to be 50 bucks a game, at least to start out the season, so I'm on a much smaller scale than the big baller known as fnord, who can afford to throw around g stacks.

 

[Joker]

I'm not sure how much more personality Fnord can have.

I saw the chance to make a hackneyed Jimmy the Greek pun and I took a swing...Fnord is just collateral damage...

 

[Clonamery]

...Fnord is just collateral damage...

True dat.

 

[Clonamery]

I saw the chance to make a hackneyed Jimmy the Greek pun and I took a swing...Fnord is just collateral damage...

And he has an avatar of an ostrich that looks like Phyllis Diller....total nightmare.