OT: 2017 Degenerate Gambler Thread

[fnordcircle]

I honestly looked but I can't find any gambler thread in the Off Topic forums but weed is legal in my state.

$1k dropped on the pats -9 at the local book. If I win I'll be driving over to the Mustang Ranch to find a couple of unfortunate women.

Anyone else making sound financial decisions this week?

Games I like if I didn't prefer to stick to the Pats early in the season:

Houston -5. I'm not sold on their QB but I am sold on that defense intercepting Bortles.
Seattle +3. **** the Packers.
Cincy -3. Flacco will be rusty and I'm not not sold on the Ravens anymore.

 

[ALP]

whats the advantage of the local book vs online betting sites?

 

[BobDigital]

I don't love the Pats at minus 9 without Edelman vs a good team.

The bets i take this week...

Atlanta @ Chicago -7 - I love to bet against bad teams even at home. Atlanta should blow their doors off.

Carolina @ San Fan -5.5 - I don't think Carolina is all that good but i like the 5.5. It isn't much different from 7 in certain ways but it means assuming Carolina wins (and I think they will) there are few ways they win that are less than 6 points. They would generally need to only win by a FG (seems pretty close for such a bad team) or 4 points (TDvFG difference). Both are possible but I see this at likely a 2 FG win.

I was tempted to take Pitt @ Cleveland too but the 8.5 is heavy for a team that was so bad away last year even vs the worst of the NFL.

Those are the only 2 spread bets I take but when it comes to O/U give me

NYG @ Dallas - 48 - under. Giants have a very very good D and a usually incompetent O that has no ability to run. Neither game between these 2 came within a TD of 48. This is my favorite bet this week. ***

Tampa Bay @ Miami - 41.5 - over - Both teams have play makers and bad Ds generally. Cutler will toss up a lot of balls deep and things will happen good and bad that will lead to points. Miami will have great weather and if Tampa ties out on D it could turn into a track meet. There will be some rain but I like the 41.5 too much here to pass it up for that.

Those would be my 4 bets.

 

[jmt57]

Other than Houston -5 at home vs Jacksonville, there's nothing that really jumps out at me. Rams minus 3½ at home vs the Colts (with Tolzein at QB) is a strong possibility too, though I would feel better about this game if I knew Aaron Donald was going to play.

 

[Jackson 2]

I don't love the Pats at minus 9 without Edelman vs a good team.

The bets i take this week...

Atlanta @ Chicago -7 - I love to bet against bad teams even at home. Atlanta should blow their doors off.

Carolina @ San Fan -5.5 - I don't think Carolina is all that good but i like the 5.5. It isn't much different from 7 in certain ways but it means assuming Carolina wins (and I think they will) there are few ways they win that are less than 6 points. They would generally need to only win by a FG (seems pretty close for such a bad team) or 4 points (TDvFG difference). Both are possible but I see this at likely a 2 FG win.

I was tempted to take Pitt @ Cleveland too but the 8.5 is heavy for a team that was so bad away last year even vs the worst of the NFL.

Those are the only 2 spread bets I take but when it comes to O/U give me

NYG @ Dallas - 48 - under. Giants have a very very good D and a usually incompetent O that has no ability to run. Neither game between these 2 came within a TD of 48. This is my favorite bet this week. ***

Tampa Bay @ Miami - 41.5 - over - Both teams have play makers and bad Ds generally. Cutler will toss up a lot of balls deep and things will happen good and bad that will lead to points. Miami will have great weather and if Tampa ties out on D it could turn into a track meet. There will be some rain but I like the 41.5 too much here to pass it up for that.

Those would be my 4 bets.

3 out of 4 ain't bad. Your bet #4 isn't possible.

 

[varjao]

It'$ that time of the year again, oh yeah

NFL and NBA are my favorite markets.

 

[fnordcircle]

I don't love the Pats at minus 9 without Edelman vs a good team.

It's a fair statement but I think that the drop-off from Jules to Amendola isn't enough to slow down our offense considerably.

I also just always bet on the Pats if I'm betting anything. Feels wrong to not bet on them.

 

[TBR]

I was thinking of teasing the Pats and Atlanta.

 

[Clonamery]

Sounds like someone will be sharing a cell with Carton in about 6-9 months of a fnordponzi scheme.

 

[XLIX]

I got creamed last weekend, so I am taking this weekend off. I'll probably start some sort Ponzi scheme like that radio guy today who got arrested.....

 

[TB_Helmet]

Mustang Ranch??

 

[BobDigital]

3 out of 4 ain't bad. Your bet #4 isn't possible.

Yes it was kind of a joke. IT was my impression when I saw it.. To bad cause I think that was a sweet bet

It's a fair statement but I think that the drop-off from Jules to Amendola isn't enough to slow down our offense considerably.

I also just always bet on the Pats if I'm betting anything. Feels wrong to not bet on them.

I think the Pats will do fine on offense in the long run assuming everyone else stays healthy but game 1 without him? They will be figuring a lot of it out.

I love to bet on the Pats in general. Often they are good for the over with most things.

 

[BobDigital]

I got creamed last weekend, so I am taking this weekend off. I'll probably start some sort Ponzi scheme like that radio guy today who got arrested.....

If you want to actually bet and try to REALLY win at it there are a few tips that I've read and they seem to work.

The main rules a lot of gamblers who are pros talk about is stay away from professional sports as it is too even. If you must limit the games you pick and mostly stick to over/under and keep an eye on weather conditions that creep up when you do.

Most pros bet on college games for football and basketball. A lot of reasons for that. One is the number of bets you get to make. The bigger reason though as you get more virtual locks to win. A trick a lot of pros do is parley 5-6 sure bets with massive favorites in college with a more risky bets (though still having an edge). It tends to give you a some extra money for very reasonable risk.

People will often hear about this and instantly not like it as parleys are usually for suckers. Usually they are but a key difference here is people massive underrate the difference between college teams particularly in a pick em situation.

The difference between a top college football team and a weak one on their schedule is much MUCH larger than the difference between the Patriots and Cleveland.. It like the Pats playing the guys who couldn't even make the Cleveland practice squad. Actually that probably doesn't even accurately describe the difference between a top college team and low level college team they sometimes face. The point is it is safe with maybe 1 upset happening a year total. Maybe.... more often than not no upsets like that happen all year.

These teams a pay out 1 dollar on a 100 dollar bet if you pick them to win. String 5-6 of them together and it adds good value to a fairly but not 100% safe bet. With a parley with those you can turn a fairly safe 100 dollar bet to gain 60 more into a virtually equally safe 100 dollar bet to gain 80 more.

I have never tried to do this as I don't know enough about the college game to do it but it seems like a smart idea.

 

[Tony2046]

Other than Houston -5 at home vs Jacksonville, there's nothing that really jumps out at me. Rams minus 3½ at home vs the Colts (with Tolzein at QB) is a strong possibility too, though I would feel better about this game if I knew Aaron Donald was going to play.

Houston at minus 5 seems ridiculous.

 

[Brick27]

I also just always bet on the Pats if I'm betting anything. Feels wrong to not bet on them.

I typically bet against them (only in big games) with the hopes I lose money. Which is merely to help soften the blow if things go wrong.

 

[supafly]

Houston at minus 5 seems ridiculous.

Why do you say that, Tony? I was actually considering it, myself.

 

[supafly]

If you want to actually bet and try to REALLY win at it there are a few tips that I've read and they seem to work.

The main rules a lot of gamblers who are pros talk about is stay away from professional sports as it is too even. If you must limit the games you pick and mostly stick to over/under and keep an eye on weather conditions that creep up when you do.

Most pros bet on college games for football and basketball. A lot of reasons for that. One is the number of bets you get to make. The bigger reason though as you get more virtual locks to win. A trick a lot of pros do is parley 5-6 sure bets with massive favorites in college with a more risky bets (though still having an edge). It tends to give you a some extra money for very reasonable risk.

People will often hear about this and instantly not like it as parleys are usually for suckers. Usually they are but a key difference here is people massive underrate the difference between college teams particularly in a pick em situation.

The difference between a top college football team and a weak one on their schedule is much MUCH larger than the difference between the Patriots and Cleveland.. It like the Pats playing the guys who couldn't even make the Cleveland practice squad. Actually that probably doesn't even accurately describe the difference between a top college team and low level college team they sometimes face. The point is it is safe with maybe 1 upset happening a year total. Maybe.... more often than not no upsets like that happen all year.

These teams a pay out 1 dollar on a 100 dollar bet if you pick them to win. String 5-6 of them together and it adds good value to a fairly but not 100% safe bet. With a parley with those you can turn a fairly safe 100 dollar bet to gain 60 more into a virtually equally safe 100 dollar bet to gain 80 more.

I have never tried to do this as I don't know enough about the college game to do it but it seems like a smart idea.

The problem with the big college teams versus lower quality opponents is the fact that you have 40-45 point spreads that you have to cover.

If your team is giving 44 and they completely dominate 50-7, you still lose. I don't believe there is any hidden secret to betting big spreads versus other normal wagers, but that's just me.

 

[supafly]

I was thinking of teasing the Pats and Atlanta.

Me too, although I'm also considering just laying off our game altogether, as well. I already have strong rooting interests and I personally don't see as much value as some others seem to, particularly with a spread that is expected to reach double digits.

A 7 point teaser would make things tempting, though.

 

[BobDigital]

The problem with the big college teams versus lower quality opponents is the fact that you have 40-45 point spreads that you have to cover.

If your team is giving 44 and they completely dominate 50-7, you still lose. I don't believe there is any hidden secret to betting big spreads versus other normal wagers, but that's just me.

You don't pick spreads though you just pick the winner. That is a bet they will take and why it is needed to pick 5 or 6 of them in a parley to get any value out of it.

Like you said. Those games tend to end 50-10 or if they are close 35-20 but that is rare. They are almost never upsets which is the whole point of adding them on to a bet to get more value.

Sorry i guess i could have made that more clear.

 

[fnordcircle]

Mustang Ranch??

There's like 5 legal brothels in Nevada. A gentleman pays for his STDs.