Mgcolby's NFL ATS Picker Thread

[mgcolby]

Used to post this in @fnordcircle gambling thread but it has seemed to have been led to the Patsfans pasture. I thought about adding it to Dingleberries Casino thread but that is a weekly thread. So to keep this in one place I went ahead and created its own thread.

For those that are not familiar with it, below is an explanation:

1. It is a system based on the last 4 games played by each team.

2. It uses a portion of each teams stats, head to head for each team in each game.

3. It obviously cannot account for weather, injuries etc...

4. It accounts for home field advantage of +2 points. It is factored in with the home team getting a +1 from their predicted score and -1 from the road team. Based on I believe an article posted by @Ice_Ice_Brady and then some further research I adjusted this down from +3 for the home team. I read it could be as low as +1 now, but figured I would middle it and see what happens.

5. The spread is based on the opening line from NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting (thespread.com)

6. Unfortunately I discovered today that the site does not list the O/U so I am using the BetMGM App line from Monday's as the "opening" O/U

7. Obviously I could line shop to give it an edge, but that would be too much work and ******** padding of the stats, IMO. So to keep a consistent accurate record of its picks I will stick with the opening lines.

8. I will keep the official record starting in Week 5.

9. As usual I will post the picks hopefully by Wednesday each week.

10. I will at the same time, starting in week 6, post the results from the previous week.

11. As mentioned in #8, and I am sure some of you remember, (if not you can peruse back through this thread to find past examples (9) OT-ish: The gambling thread | Page 89 | New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard) I keep a running record of the Picks Straight Up, ATS and then I break down its record by the difference of the predicted spread and the actual spread. Example Prediction is NE winning by 10, the spread is NE -3, that would be a spread difference of 7 and that game would be counted in the +7 W-L-P in the season record list. I break it down by less than 3, +3, +4, +5,+6,+7,+8 or greater. I also post this each week starting in week 6.

12. For unit +/- purposes I assume equal action on each game each week. Example bet -110 to win 100. This year has the over under so I will use the same unit process for O/U.

I think that covers it all feel free to ask any questions. I went back and pulled the stats from 2019 (the last year I kept up with it), that was actually a down year for the picker in seasons before that it was usually between 56% and 58%.



Season Results:

ATS: 107-93-4 (54%) +4.7 units

SU: 118-86 (58%)



Playoff Results



ATS: 5-4-1 (56%) +0.6 Units

SU: 5-5



SB Week Result:

ATS: 1-0

SU: 1-0



Season + Playoff Results

ATS: 113-97-5 (54%)

SU: 124-91 (58%)

 

[mgcolby]

Week 4

So as always the Picker has some head scratching doosies. The Picker’s pre-season week of 2021 does not disappoint.

Just a quick reminder this is not an official week for the Picker, the official opening day for the Picker is Week 5. But being a degenerate like the rest of us the Picker is jonesing to get going. So lets get the rust out.

First shocker: the Eagles over the Chiefs. Seems shocking on the surface, and to be fair has the Eagles winning by 3/4ths of a point, but a win nonetheless. Its not as far fetched as it seems given the absolute garbage defense the Chiefs trot out onto the field each week. The Eagles offense can move the ball quickly and simply ran into a hyped up Dak and Boy’s team last week. The worst play of the game for the Eagles offense came when Smith fell down and it resulted in a pick six. If the Eagles avoid mistakes they can win this at home. Definitely on the side of taking the Points in this one. ML is iffy, but I lean that way.

Second shocker: Panthers over the Cowboys on the road. I personally don’t agree with the Picker here. I think the Cowboy’s handle business at home. Panthers have played really good football…against two really bad teams and one questionable team. Cannot see this happening especially by nearly a TD. I think the Boys cover the 4.5.

Third Shocker: Cardinals over the Rams. I can't see this for cold statistical reasons. However, the Rams coming off a big win against what many of us expect to be their biggest hurdle to the SB. Their reward is a team playing very good football that happens to be a division opponent. I really like the Cards in this spot. Both on the points and the ML.

Honorable mentions:

Pats keeping it close against TB. Unless the Pats have a complete turn around from last week. This could be very much bad for the home team. A pissed off Brady in FU mode…I have seen that to many times and its usually NOT good for the other team.

Broncos over the Ravens. Broncos have not played a single good football team. The Ravens are a good football team. We’ll find out what the Broncos are this week.

 

[mgcolby]

Here is the first official week of the Picker. Season record will be tracked from this week on.

It had a rough preaseason week going 6-10 ATS, better Straight Up and Over/Under 10-6 in both categories.

I don't think any of this weeks games are "shocking" or calling for any real big upsets:

Maybe the Bengals over the Packers counts as an upset. But I think the Bengals were the sleeper coming into the season and they have done nothing to change that.

The Bears playing with the Raiders maybe a bit surprising to some. Not sure I agree with the picker here but nonetheless not a shocker.

Broncos and Steelers game is a bit in the air, obviously these stats have Bridgewater playing 3+ games. If he is not a go, I am not sure Drew Lock gets it done without a defenisive score and a short field set up or two for the offense curtesy of the defense.

Bills beating the Chiefs soundly might count as well. But again nothing that would be considered a crazy upset. Normally it has one or two that really stand out.

Remember this a tool, it cannot account for injuries, weather etc...

Enjoy. Constructive feedback on the formatting, additional information provided or different ways to use the picker etc... is welcomed.

 

[mgcolby]

And the results are in for the first week of the season. Not what we are looking for here but a win is a win!

It went 8-7-1 ATS. 11-5 SU/ML and terrible on the O/U 6-10.

Some solid wins on Bills, Colts and Bears. One bad call on the Fins, some bad beats Browns, Giants (w/injuries), Panthers. But either way a winning start the season.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6 Picks:

Fresh off a winning week by the skin of its teeth. In the past it has had weeks as bad as 5-11 and weeks as good as 14-2. So it can be a bit schitzo but over the course of the year wins more than it loses. Most weeks are winners (past performance anyway) but usually more in the 9-7 to 11-5 range. Anyway on to this weeks picks:

Its making some big boy calls with:

The Bears at +4.5 over the Packers. Interesting that it has the Bears going toe to toe with the Packers.

The Giants getting 10.5 against the Rams. However the health and status of Jones and clearly Barkley is out for a while with that ankle and hard to envision Jones playing a week after looking like a drunken sailor trying to get back across the field. I was dumbfounded by the fact that Mike Glennon was still in the league. Thinking the Picker is going to eat a massive steaming pile on this game (Or maybe I will now).

The Skins playing with the Chiefs. Not sure how to view this. But thinking I am going to take the Chiefs are playing so ****ty right now angle. No defense and Washington's D is solid, not spectacular but solid. I think the Skins keep it tight here and cover the +6.5.

Two notes:

Its not a fan of our Pats this week against the Boys. But I think this is a defining week for this team. If they right the ship and pull this off I think good things will be coming especially if they get into some consistency and not turn the ball over. Actually not even turnovers in general, because outside of the NO's game the kids picks haven't been killers. I'm ok with the rook tossing a pick every other game or so, especially as much as he is slinging the rock. But the god damn fumbles those are back breakers, especially where they have been on the field and the situations in the game. Can't have that gotta clean that **** up. We know they can get up and play with the big boys when they played the Bucs. This week will tell us a lot, IMO.

It really likes the Bills and has them dominating the Titans. So we will see. I think the Titans are in a prime spot for an upset here. The Bills coming off a big road win against the Chiefs and then turning right around going back on the road. I feel a let down game coming. But the picker likes the Bills laying the 5.5.

Without further ado:

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6 Results

Not a good week for the picker. Hope it has a bounce back week we shall see.

For the week:

ATS: 6-8 (42.8%)
SU: 8-6 (57.1%)
OU: 5-9 (35.7%)

Season

ATS: 14-15-1 (48.2%)
SU: 19-11 (63.3%)
OU: 11-19 (36.6%)

 

[mgcolby]

Week 7 in by the skin of my teeth. No time for writeup. Maybe come back during the 1st Qtr and do it.


Going to have to make two corrections and post a new image. I will leave this one up to show the difference.

Two corrections:
1. Missed the OU line on the Bronco and Browns.
2. And I mistakenly had the picker taking the Chiefs but it should be the Titans +4.5