Official Post Game Thread- Texans beat the Pats

[DropKickFlutie]

Sure. Lawrence can't be treated like a Goff or Mayfield level 1st overall. He's a trancedent once every 10 years QB. He's a Manning/Luck/Elway style prospect. That's rare. If we got him he wouldn't think about the QB position again for at least a decade. The further you get away from the high prospects the more it becomes a crapshoot.

This data is 4 years old but to give you an idea, this is the success rate in the draft.

1st-16th: 81% success rate.

17th-32nd: 65%

2nd round: 48%

3rd round: 25%

4th round: 13%

5th round: 6%

6th round: 16%

7th round: 6%

That's just the guy being good enough to be a solid starter for several years. Not even world class. Once you leave the first round it becomes worse than a coin flip. Really you are better drafting high 2 or 3 years in a row to get your guy than hoping a coin flip goes your way. The last two weeks vs the Jets and Ravens did not help the coaching staff identify who was good or not

I don't strongly disagree. But I'm not as convinced as you are that Trevor is the next Peyton Manning. When Trevor sat with covid it looks like the backup Clemson QB was awesome too. And this whole thing is moot because we're not talking about the #1 pick for the Pats. We're talking about the Pats hypothetically picking #8 as you prefer compared to say #13. I think it's a wash.

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[sb1]

But a great QB trumps a great defense.

Tell that to the 2015 Broncos

 

[TheRainMaker]

Truth

You just need to see more losses. Rex Ryan used to say "look at our team and look at NEs" He was right. The Jets had 1st rounders everywhere and a great defense. But Rex had Sanchez and NE had Brady.

I agree with you on Brady, but the Rex Ryan Jets weren't very good. Outside of Revis, Cromortie and Bart Scott, they were pedestrian on D and Ryan's scheme made a lot of players look better than they really were. And outside of Santonio Holmes, nobody really scared you on offense.

 

[jdlboot14]

Cam's passing numbers are deceptive. Some big plays downfield today, sure. But, the dirt throws on short comebacks or screens is killing drives. He seems like the king of coming up just short in every big moment. He's actually incredibly non-evasive for a "running QB". I know, it's not all his fault. And ultimately, the D sunk us again. They're more surprisingly bad, considering most of us expected great offensive struggles this year. It's just a disaster of a team. I be we'll play better against the superior Cards team, although lose again. There's just no heartbeat, no fire, no rhythm. Painful.

 

[sb1]

I think it would have been hilarious watching the pro tank crowd here bring the pitchforks to Bill’s house when Lawrence stinks it up in his first year if the Pats were bad enough to get that top pick.

 

[ashley]

But a great QB trumps a great defense.

Can we please agree to disagree....I respect your opinion, but hopefully we agree that we love the Pats and want them to be on top!!!

I love this team and we'll be back Triump...Can I get some enthusiasm from you?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Again it depends on who is in front of us and who is willing to trade. It also depends on what Bill does. Bill is historically a very conservative drafter. He knows where he values guys and he trades down if he doesn't want to pull the trigger. That's just how he is.

I think the biggest flaw is they have too many crap players grouped into the same tier1 of a position. So Belichick sees this and thinks he can wait for the last guy in a value group, when that guy is way worse. This big flaw is compounded by the fact that Josh McDaniels is the worst talent evaluator in the league. For that reason alone I don't want us going anywhere close to offense with the first round pick. Defense only, or an OLineman personally vetted by Scar consulting out of retirement.

 

[holyredeemer]

The issue is more that you have to assume that Bill will grade all 6 of them as first rounders. Doubtful and Bill doesn't like to overdraft. Let's say we pick 8th. That guarantees Lawrence, Field, and Lance are gone. Highly possible the other is. Now all of a sudden you have to worry about drafting Jones or Wilson higher than you want or give every single QB needy team a chance to get them before you have a shot again.

The league has changes over the last 20 years. We just watched the Cardinals draft Rosen and the Murray. People aren't screwing around when it comes to QB anymore. They are shooting their shot until it pays off. You know who isn't? Elway in Denver. He's also in the hot seat.

Exactly, that's why if Bill sees a guy he likes, and grades in the first to second, he needs to just say f'it and grab him.

I hear you. But over half these teams, I would assume they're playing musical chairs too with the older QBs (Matt Ryan, Stafford, etc). I don't recall this being a bonanza QB draft. So 5 QBs in the first round would be surprising. I'm just not convinced a #8 pick for us is going to save the franchise while a #13 won't help us at all.

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Sorry, I guess I'm confused about what we are talking about. I thought we were talking about the difference between getting a QB in the first vs middle of the draft.

 

[oldrover]

I was asking a question, I mentioned in my post that the defense didn't play well also and we didn't play well enough as a team. Sounds like you're looking for an argument. I asked if we should play Stidham to see if he is our future qb. Don't know what your problem is and I'll leave it at that.

 

[lancerman]

I don't strongly disagree. But I'm not as convinced as you are that Trevor is the next Peyton Manning. When Trevor sat with covid it looks like the backup Clemson QB was awesome too. And this whole thing is moot because we're not talking about the #1 pick for the Pats. We're talking about the Pats hypothetically picking #8 as you prefer compared to say #13. I think it's a wash.

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He doesn't need to be Peyton Manning. If he's Luck, you get Belichick to build a good team around him and we compete for years to come. Yes if when we were 2-5 we lost to the Jets and Ravens we'd be on our way to a horserace for him. And if we didn't get him then you get Lance or Fields as consolation prizes. We will get none of the three

 

[ashley]

Hi Oldrover....I've missed you, hope you're doing well and happy thanksgiving to you and the family....you are always great at making me laugh!!

 

[sb1]

We know Bill would never get his team to lose games on purpose. There is no chance whatsoever that would happen. We all know that.

So any 2-14 finish would be on merit. Like with any 2-14 team that means there are many more issues with the roster on both sides of the ball than one high draft QB who hasn’t proven a thing in the league would fix by himself.

 

[oldrover]

Hi Oldrover....I've missed you, hope you're doing well and happy thanksgiving to you and the family....you are always great at making me laugh!!

Right back at you Ashley... I love your calm, informative posts... and especially your mod work. You give it right back...



...and then some.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Exactly, that's why if Bill sees a guy he likes, and grades in the first to second, he needs to just say f'it and grab him.

Sorry, I guess I'm confused about what we are talking about. I thought we were talking about the difference between getting a QB in the first vs middle of the draft.

I agree 100% with you. Bill needs to recognize the top guys in his tier1 of a group are way better than the bottom guy of his tier1. Especially for offensive players where the draft evals are total horseshit with McDaniels.

Like when we traded up for Chandler Jones or Hightower. Go get the guy who's the best if it doesn't break the bank to do it. But not for offense though, I still have zero trust in any picks on offense until McDaniels is fired.

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[DropKickFlutie]

He doesn't need to be Peyton Manning. If he's Luck, you get Belichick to build a good team around him and we compete for years to come. Yes if when we were 2-5 we lost to the Jets and Ravens we'd be on our way to a horserace for him. And if we didn't get him then you get Lance or Fields as consolation prizes. We will get none of the three

Yea. So let's agree Trevor has NEVER been in the realm of possibility. Teams like the Jets and the entire NFC east are just pathetic. We wouldn't have the #1 pick. Then looking at Lance or Fields, meh, it's not like any of the next 5 QBs are a sure thing.

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[sb1]

I wonder if Barstool is making a McDaniels clown shirt?

 

[lancerman]

I think the biggest flaw is they have too many crap players grouped into the same tier1 of a position. So Belichick sees this and thinks he can wait for the last guy in a value group, when that guy is way worse. This big flaw is compounded by the fact that Josh McDaniels is the worst talent evaluator in the league. For that reason alone I don't want us going anywhere close to offense with the first round pick. Defense only, or an OLineman personally vetted by Scar consulting out of retirement.

I agree that this is an issue as well. I also think Bill sometimes disgards injury history so he can get a player that he thinks is a steal if everything goes well

 

[Triumph]

I agree with you on Brady, but the Rex Ryan Jets weren't very good. Outside of Revis, Cromortie and Bart Scott, they were pedestrian on D and Ryan's scheme made a lot of players look better than they really were. And outside of Santonio Holmes, nobody really scared you on offense.

1st Mangold
1st Faneca
1st Ferguson
1st Woody
1st Braylon Edwards
1st Thomas Jones
1st Calvin Pace
1st Lito Shepard
1st Shaun Ellis
1st Bryan Thomas

 

[Triumph]

Can we please agree to disagree....I respect your opinion, but hopefully we agree that we love the Pats and want them to be on top!!!

I love this team and we'll be back Triump...Can I get some enthusiasm from you?

You spelled my name wrong.

No i

 

[ashley]

You spelled my name wrong.

No i

Sorry about your name, I really tried, but I am getting too many complaints about you....goodbye.