Game Day Thread Official Pats at Bills Playoff Pregame Discussion Thread

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Is there any data on how Allen performs in these freezing temps?

If its gonna be another‘elements’ game id hope we at least run some screens/ misdirection type pitches with jonnu and bourne . Last game really didn’t even see much of that. Need a clinic by both bb and jmd here imo

 

[gitgronked82]

That was an insane play by Allen...we got the great Allen then, hopefully this week he'll be the "bad" Allen.

Allen was absolutely remarkable last game. Super impressive. Also remember sanders dropped a td on that 4th down early in the game too. The potential pick by JC was about all Allen gave us that day. He is scary.

 

[masterbouncer]

@Rob0729
Also check out this play:


And this commentary/visual

great ball placement, great separation from the WRs as well and a hell lot of time without pressure for Allen in the pocket

keep him in the pocket and more pass rush through the middle, the LBs if they can't cover should blitz all day long, send the house on every other play, let him feel unsafe in the pocket

 

[gitgronked82]

Is there any data on how Allen performs in these freezing temps?

If its gonna be another‘elements’ game id hope we at least run some screens/ misdirection type pitches with jonnu and bourne . Last game really didn’t even see much of that. Need a clinic by both bb and jmd here imo

There is data that his stats are worse in colder temps. But I’m not sure how much of that is causal and how much is reasonably explained by other factors.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I thought the guys on both sides of the trenches played badly for the Patriots in the 2nd Bills game.

I don't think we've seen either team at full go against one another yet.

This is why I think the game is somewhat in the balance. The Bills have to be able to stop the running game again because this time, Mac Jones will throw it, and if the OL gives him some support, it's not going to be constant pressure like we saw in New England.

By the way, tickets are dropping like a rock, $40 upper bowl, $60 second level, $70 end zones.

I might wait until Friday.

im keeping an eye on prices as well, im 2.5 hours from buffalo

 

[venecol]

Unless the cold turns the ball into a stone that cannot travel well in the air.

We know from the 2014 AFCCG that the balls lost <1 psi of pressure in 51 degree weather. I'm too lazy to figure out how much pressure they'll lose in 8 degree weather (@Palm Beach Pats Fan) but it would be substantially more.

I wonder if they just inflate the balls outside instead of in the lockeroom if the loss of pressure would be less dramatic. I would think so and maybe that's what they've been doing.

Regardless, the cold weather probably will affect Mac more than Allen given Bills have played back to back games at home in 25-deg and 34-deg weather. In contrast the Pats are coming from back to back games in 46-deg and 76-deg weather.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

There is data that his stats are worse in colder temps. But I’m not sure how much of that is causal and how much is reasonably explained by other factors.

interesting, wonder how much worse. Id imagine not to the extent of that wind game but every bit helps!

 

[gitgronked82]

great ball placement, great separation from the WRs as well and a hell lot of time without pressure for Allen in the pocket

keep him in the pocket and more pass rush through the middle, the LBs if they can't cover should blitz all day long

That really wasn’t “a hell lot of time without pressure for Allen in the pocket”. Bentley wins on his matchup almost instantly and is downhill in Allen’s face right away. That’s good pressure.
We likely aren’t going to just send blitzing LBs at Allen all day.
1. Allen performs VERY well against the blitz this year statistically, I believe.
2. I think we often like to keep some spy on him. That means one less LB to blot. Plus as discussed above, we could use our LBs to collision crossers as well

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

We know from the 2014 AFCCG that the balls lost <1 psi of pressure in 51 degree weather. I'm too lazy to figure out how much pressure they'll lose in 8 degree weather (@Palm Beach Pats Fan) but it would be substantially more.

I wonder if they just inflate the balls outside instead of in the lockeroom if the loss of pressure would be less dramatic. I would think so and maybe that's what they've been doing.

Regardless, the cold weather probably will affect Mac more than Allen given Bills have played back to back games at home in 25-deg and 34-deg weather. In contrast the Pats are coming from back to back games in 46-deg and 76-deg weather.

im sure it will affect mac unfortunately, thats why im hoping they at least run some screens/ throws in the flat. We have guys that can rack up yards after catch. Gotta be creative because we are not holding buff to 10 points again

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

That really wasn’t “a hell lot of time without pressure for Allen in the pocket”. Bentley wins on his matchup almost instantly and is downhill in Allen’s face right away. That’s good pressure.
We likely aren’t going to just send blitzing LBs at Allen all day.
1. Allen performs VERY well against the blitz this year statistically, I believe.
2. I think we often like to keep some spy on him. That means one less LB to blot. Plus as discussed above, we could use our LBs to collision crossers as well

yeah, allen made some insane throws in foxboro. We weren’t great on d and jcj did screw the pooch on that should be int, but there were alot of ‘tip your cap’ moments after some good pressure

 

[patsinthesnow]

Have to make him uncomfortable in what will be one of the coldest games in NFL history. Also, check the comments out lmao.

 

[masterbouncer]

That really wasn’t “a hell lot of time without pressure for Allen in the pocket”. Bentley wins on his matchup almost instantly and is downhill in Allen’s face right away. That’s good pressure.
We likely aren’t going to just send blitzing LBs at Allen all day.
1. Allen performs VERY well against the blitz this year statistically, I believe.
2. I think we often like to keep some spy on him. That means one less LB to blot. Plus as discussed above, we could use our LBs to collision crossers as well

he moves well in the pocket as well buying some time, I counted around 3sec at least before he releases the ball, but again its also because he is agil in the pocket and often has room to manover to the outside

 

[Rob0729]

Definitely wasn’t just that Bryant was in the zone they were targeting. We ran cover 1 for 47% of the snaps that game, and we started in zone early while Allen was hitting RBs short etc.

Bryant was playing outside leverage man (like the pats often do) and got out leveraged and outrun across the field. It would help him if we had anyone collision him to reroute, yeah.

It’s also not accurate that they were sitting in off man 5-10 yards off the ball all game. For example, here’s one of the biggest completions of the game, if not the biggest. We’re pressed on their 2 WRs on the LOS. Bryant is off, but you aren’t going to press every DB on the field. If dugger re-routed Bryant’s man, he could have caught up.
Or we could stop playing outside leverage for all of these.

I was exggerating all game, but they did play soft for most of it.

I will take your word for the rest. But either way, they mostly dropped seven or eight men into coverage during the game and were unable to generate a pass rush with a four man rush. That is why Allen could pick apart the defense. Man or zone. Soft or press coverage. You give a good QB 4-5 seconds to throw the ball and he is going to pick apart the defense.

 

[venecol]

interesting, wonder how much worse. Id imagine not to the extent of that wind game but every bit helps!

His last two games at home against ATL and NYJ weren't impressive in cold weather:

vs ATL: Josh Allen – 11/26, 120 yards, 3 INT (25 °F)
vs NYJ: Josh Allen – 24/45, 239 yards, 2 TD (34 °F)

I've got to believe 8 °F will affect Mac much more than Allen, so expect a lot of runs this game.

 

[gitgronked82]

he moves well in the pocket as well buying some time, I counted around 3sec at least before he releases the ball, but again its also because he is agil in the pocket and often has room to manover to the outside

Yeah, I mean getting to the qb as quickly as Bentley did when you aren’t running a cover 0 blitz where you have a free rusher… is pretty good. I don’t think you can ask for much more. Need a bit of coverage to hold up.

 

[gitgronked82]

yeah, allen made some insane throws in foxboro. We weren’t great on d and jcj did screw the pooch on that should be int, but there were alot of ‘tip your cap’ moments after some good pressure

This, to me. And I think we needed to just hold up in coverage for one more second, often.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

We know from the 2014 AFCCG that the balls lost <1 psi of pressure in 51 degree weather. I'm too lazy to figure out how much pressure they'll lose in 8 degree weather (@Palm Beach Pats Fan) but it would be substantially more.

I wonder if they just inflate the balls outside instead of in the lockeroom if the loss of pressure would be less dramatic. I would think so and maybe that's what they've been doing.

Regardless, the cold weather probably will affect Mac more than Allen given Bills have played back to back games at home in 25-deg and 34-deg weather. In contrast the Pats are coming from back to back games in 46-deg and 76-deg weather.

They do feel a little different, but I've played pickup football games in the snow and cold plenty of times, and never really had a problem handling the football. You adjust very quickly. The bigger issues are slipping or sliding in the snow, or finding that acceleration and cuts are a bit harder to make. I don't think the field will be covered in snow, however, so that shouldn't be an issue.

We played the Bills close each time, and split with them in case some of the doom and gloom crowd forgets, so I'm not too concerned about this game. If JC holds onto that interception in the last game, we probably pull off the comeback. I expect the defense to come out with a bit of a chip on their shoulders after the way they let the Bills score on them. This will probably be a 27-24 kind of game, but I'd like to think we can pull off the win. The cold weather may impact some play calls, but otherwise it will be a slugfest, and should be exciting!

 

[gitgronked82]

I was exggerating all game, but they did play soft for most of it.

I will take your word for the rest. But either way, they mostly dropped seven or eight men into coverage during the game and were unable to generate a pass rush with a four man rush. That is why Allen could pick apart the defense. Man or zone. Soft or press coverage. You give a good QB 4-5 seconds to throw the ball and he is going to pick apart the defense.

Yeah, sometimes. I mean, I think part of not generating pressure is wanting to contain him and not allow him to run too much.
We’ve run similar schemes against Mahomes that have actually worked. We drop 8 into coverage/spy, and though he has all day, it’s tough to find open receivers. We’ll see which approach they go with.

 

[ashley]

Allen was absolutely remarkable last game. Super impressive. Also remember sanders dropped a td on that 4th down early in the game too. The potential pick by JC was about all Allen gave us that day. He is scary.

We need to copy the gameplay that indy put on him....seemed to confuse him a lot. We'll also need to be able to run the ball and keep it away from him.

 

[masterbouncer]

Yeah, I mean getting to the qb as quickly as Bentley did when you aren’t running a cover 0 blitz where you have a free rusher… is pretty good. I don’t think you can ask for much more. Need a bit of coverage to hold up.

yep agree, but Bryant was beat instantly and basically chasing the Receiver through his route, it was never really a close battle, you might be right with the LBs being more involved in the crosser to get the receiver off their route helping bryant or whoever is covering the quick crossers on saturday

playing press coverage would also be a option do get the O out of sync and giving more time for the pass rush to get to Allen (as long as they can contain him in the pocket, if he is running wild than no coverage can keep up)