NFL rumored to be considering 14 game season starting in October

[borg]

Any mention of plans to go forward / scrap preseason games?

 

[amfootball]

Posted in another thread but pertinent to this one too, no vaccine...no football::

“It doesn’t make sense to play any games unless it is completely, 100 percent safe for us to go out there,’’ Broncos veteran safety Kareem Jackson said Tuesday in a Zoom media call. “If there is any threat to us being able to contract COVID of any way and spread it to our families or anybody else that we’re around, it just doesn’t make sense.
“I think I heard them saying something about us playing with no fans and all that. That will be like practice. In my opinion that would suck. Just talking with some of the guys, it just doesn’t make sense to go play any games unless it’s 100 percent safe for us to go out there.”

We will never be at 1oo percent. A vaccine is only about 30-40 percent effective and not every American will get it so at some point we just have live with it like we do with other viruses. Be as careful as we can and mitigate but life has to go on at some point.

 

[tasmlab]

A 14 week schedule + expanded playoff qualification means a 7 or maybe 6 win team can go to the playoffs and potentially win the super bowl.

 

[fxmallon]

I keep thinking about how the NBA season was canceled in like one day when 2-3 players tested positive for covid. Many other players, refs, and broadcasters were then placed in quarantine for 14 days. Given this, it seems that any single NFL team would have to play with like a 30 man roster for two weeks or more... the whole project seems so iffy.

 

[mgteich]

If you think this is a “pandemic of biblical proportions” then you are phenomenally ignorant of history.
If you want to cower at home, that’s you’re right. So what’s your solution? Everyone live in fear for the 2+ years it will take - if we’re lucky - to develop and distribute a vaccine? No sports until 2022?

no fans in the stadium. Not, no sports.

 

[mgteich]

We will never be at 1oo percent. A vaccine is only about 30-40 percent effective and not every American will get it so at some point we just have live with it like we do with other viruses. Be as careful as we can and mitigate but life has to go on at some point.

Yes, life does need to go on at some point. That is a political decision. The governor decided to let their people have their way, and to allow an ADDITIONAL 60-160K to die.

To be clear, the UWash estimate with stay at home orders was 60K, and then 72K with very minor decreasing of restrictions, pursuant to a very good 3 phase plan announced by the president. The president and the governors decided that this was no longer good enough, and now the deaths will increase in bot the first and the second wave.

 

[XLIX]

Yes, life does need to go on at some point. That is a political decision. The governor decided to let their people have their way, and to allow an ADDITIONAL 60-160K to die.

To be clear, the UWash estimate with stay at home orders was 60K, and then 72K with very minor decreasing of restrictions, pursuant to a very good 3 phase plan announced by the president. The president and the governors decided that this was no longer good enough, and now the deaths will increase in bot the first and the second wave.

That model - like every other one - is constantly changing. None of them really know what they are doing.

 

[XLIX]

no fans in the stadium. Not, no sports.

That's how I feel, but clearly it's not how the person to whom I was responding feels.

 

[mgteich]

That model - like every other one - is constantly changing. None of them really know what they are doing.

I guess anti-intellectualism is alive and well. IMO, scientists do indeed know what they are doing. But, we shouldn't discuss this since it is a political issue, with one party believing that science matters, and the other thinking that scientists don't know what they are doing.

 

[XLIX]

I guess anti-intellectualism is alive and well. IMO, scientists do indeed know what they are doing. But, we shouldn't discuss this since it is a political issue, with one party believing that science matters, and the other thinking that scientists don't know what they are doing.

Your ignorance is on wide display here. It is not anti-intellectualism, it is recognition that there is so much we just don't know and even the all-mighty scientists have been getting it wrong as often as not. There are no models out there which have consistently gotten its predictions correct.

I have been tracking these models and monitoring their performance. FACT: On April 29, your UWash model projected a total of 72,860 deaths in the U.S. by August 4. We will hit that number either today or tomorrow (I haven't looked the the current day totals yet). It took us one single week to hit a number they said would take 14 weeks. Don't tell me that was all due to the idea that a couple states loosened restrictions on May 1.

And don't sit there and lecture us on how wise and all-knowing scientists are. A model is only as good as the data and the methodology, but even the almighty scientists - of which I am one - cannot create accurate models when there is still widespread disagreement regarding transmission rates, mortality rates, impact of mutations, potential seasonality, unknown effects of different treatments, etc.

 

[Teej]

If you think this is a “pandemic of biblical proportions” then you are phenomenally ignorant of history.
If you want to cower at home, that’s you’re right. So what’s your solution? Everyone live in fear for the 2+ years it will take - if we’re lucky - to develop and distribute a vaccine? No sports until 2022?

The solution is a vaccine.

No vaccine = no practice ---- no practice = no games.

You can hope they play all you want but the fact is...players don't need the work to put bread on their family's table. I doubt they'll put themselves and their families at risk without a vaccine but you may think otherwise if you wish.

 

[XLIX]

The solution is a vaccine.

No vaccine = no practice ---- no practice = no games.

You can hope they play all you want but the fact is...players don't need the work to put bread on their family's table. I doubt they'll put themselves and their families at risk without a vaccine but you may think otherwise if you wish.

Now please answer the question I asked you:

What’s your solution? Everyone live in fear for the 2+ years it will take - if we’re lucky - to develop and distribute a vaccine? No sports until 2022?

BTW, don't be so sure players don't need the money. Do you realize how many of these guy are living paycheck to paycheck? And how many are flat broke within a couple years of their careers ending?

 

[Teej]

Now please answer the question I asked you:

What’s your solution? Everyone live in fear for the 2+ years it will take - if we’re lucky - to develop and distribute a vaccine? No sports until 2022?

BTW, don't be so sure players don't need the money. Do you realize how many of these guy are living paycheck to paycheck? And how many are flat broke within a couple years of their careers ending?

Can you read? I said the solution is a vaccine. If you want to say people will be in fear until a vaccine is ready then, sure, I agree with that. The very fact that you say people will be in fear without a vaccine bolsters my point, thank you. Pro sports are not an essential part of life.

 

[XLIX]

Can you read?

I'm starting to wonder the exact same thing about you.

I said the solution is a vaccine. If you want to say people will be in fear until a vaccine is ready then, sure, I agree with that. The very fact that you say people will be in fear without a vaccine bolsters my point, thank you. Pro sports are not an essential part of life.

Me: What should we do during the 2 years it will probably take to create and distribute a vaccine?
You: The solution is a vaccine!
Me: OK, but what do we do while we await the development and distribution of a vaccine?
You: The solution is a vaccine!

 

[varjao]

This is completely ridiculous, and totally ignorant of how this pandemic will function. This pandemic will comes in waves and there will be varying hotspots that emerge from time to time, for a very long time to come. How do you navigate around that? Cancel games? Move to a different stadium? Just dumb.

Best just to televise games in empty stadiums.

Thats how I see it as well. Given that scenario cutting down 2 games won't make any f..ing difference.

 

[Tony2046]

If you think this is a “pandemic of biblical proportions” then you are phenomenally ignorant of history.
If you want to cower at home, that’s you’re right. So what’s your solution? Everyone live in fear for the 2+ years it will take - if we’re lucky - to develop and distribute a vaccine? No sports until 2022?

The goal has been to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. We're doing that.

The new cases we see today are now showing results from asymptomatic people which wasn't the case two weeks ago. IOW although we're seeing similar quantities of new cases per day but we are also seeing a decrease in hospital residency.

If our hospitals aren't overwhelmed the death rate of this virus seems to be that of a bad flu. Many times more contagious but not as deadly as we once thought.

So I think we will be able to have games in September etc.. but will still have to practice social distancing measures for at least to the end of the year. Which means adjusting permitted crowd sizes based on the occupancy rate of our hospitals or something along those lines.

I've read a few reports that predict we'll have vaccines by the end of this year. Oxford and an Italian lab both have different vaccines in the human testing phase now. We'll see.

 

[mgteich]

Your ignorance is on wide display here. It is not anti-intellectualism, it is recognition that there is so much we just don't know and even the all-mighty scientists have been getting it wrong as often as not. There are no models out there which have consistently gotten its predictions correct.

I have been tracking these models and monitoring their performance. FACT: On April 29, your UWash model projected a total of 72,860 deaths in the U.S. by August 4. We will hit that number either today or tomorrow (I haven't looked the the current day totals yet). It took us one single week to hit a number they said would take 14 weeks. Don't tell me that was all due to the idea that a couple states loosened restrictions on May 1.

And don't sit there and lecture us on how wise and all-knowing scientists are. A model is only as good as the data and the methodology, but even the almighty scientists - of which I am one - cannot create accurate models when there is still widespread disagreement regarding transmission rates, mortality rates, impact of mutations, potential seasonality, unknown effects of different treatments, etc.

fair enough

I apologize for suggesting that you were part of the anti-science minions. I once taught statistics and yes, I too am a scientist.

I agree that there is much dispute with regard to the inputs. Th effect of mutation has been particularly been understated. The European strain has a much higher transmission rate than the European strain.

I do like the University of Washington estimates. They have been transparent, and give us the data for each state.

It is my personal opinion that the inputs changed a lot in a week. In that week, we learned what the various states were going to do, and how the states were going to deal with those that ignore them (mainly by giving in). When over 40 states decided to ignore the 3 phase plan, it became clear that there will be a spikes in several states in the next month, rather than a movement downward.

As an aside, if one looks at the country OUTSIDE of New York state, the trends are upward, hardly 14 days of downward movement. Also, rural areas are in crisis, especially those near prisons, nursing homes, and meat packing plants.

 

[luuked]

What’s your solution? Everyone live in fear for the 2+ years it will take - if we’re lucky - to develop and distribute a vaccine? No sports until 2022?

You keep repeating this "no sports until 2022" phrase while numerous posters have already pointed out that this is about empty stadiums and not a blanket ban on sports until there is a reasonable and safe way to reintroduce massive audiences without it becoming a potential super-spreading event.

And if you think those are crazy thoughts I just would like to point to the Champions League game between Bergamo and Valencia on Feb. 19 which became one of the epicenters of the pandemic.

 

[XLIX]

fair enough

I apologize for suggesting that you were part of the anti-science minions. I once taught statistics and yes, I too am a scientist.

I agree that there is much dispute with regard to the inputs. Th effect of mutation has been particularly been understated. The European strain has a much higher transmission rate than the European strain.

I do like the University of Washington estimates. They have been transparent, and give us the data for each state.

It is my personal opinion that the inputs changed a lot in a week. In that week, we learned what the various states were going to do, and how the states were going to deal with those that ignore them (mainly by giving in). When over 40 states decided to ignore the 3 phase plan, it became clear that there will be a spikes in several states in the next month, rather than a movement downward.

As an aside, if one looks at the country OUTSIDE of New York state, the trends are upward, hardly 14 days of downward movement. Also, rural areas are in crisis, especially those near prisons, nursing homes, and meat packing plants.

Thank you for your kind words. I respect your statements as you are someone who taught statistics. I recently created a model where I looked at 3 years worth of data and tried to predict the next month. These Covid-19 models are looking at 2 months worth of data and trying to accurately predict what things will be like in autumn. No small task.

Here is an article discussing the issue...

If coronavirus predictions keep changing, what good are they?

 

[Lavictoire]

Please don't make me have piped in crowd noise. 70's sitcom laugh track. I'll deal with no noise. You'll be able to hear players on the field, so that might be fun.

I wonder how the lack of crowd noise will affect the players? The home field advantage will lose its energy and visiting teams will be helped somewhat.