Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I think it's a fair thing to worry about. The NFL today is all offense and by overtime the defenses are pretty much gassed. I still like how OT is however your defense gets paid millions tooSome facts gleaned from an Ian Rapaort twitter discussion
The current OT rules date from 2010 for the playoffs and 2012 for the regular season,
Under the current OT rules, teams winning the coin toss are 86-67-10. So they won 56.2% of the games that didn't end in a tie, and 52.8% overall.
So it is an advantage, though small. Even the 10 ties all were more than one possession, so the 52.8% seems reflective of an impact of winning the coin toss. Of course ties are not given in the playoffs.
The playoff situation though is where the numbers get skewed and that leave us feeling that something is amiss. 11 playoff games have gone to OT since 2010 and the team winning the toss is 10-1, or 90.9%. Only the Saints in 2018 lost, in the NFCCG vs. the Rams.
Is this just small sample size, or is it something to worry about?
I am not sure how many of the 10 were won on 1st possession TDs.