Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

[Froob]

Pats are charged $13.5m if hes gone. Its to their benefit to get him to play in 2020 preferably around 20-23m with some cap hitting 2020 and 2021 but not too much.


Agree but I dont think Shelton will be an overpay.

Hm, so basically...getting Tom at 23 mill is effectively "10" and if they get someone else say Dalton at 5 (he's probably worth more than that just an example) it's basically 18?

 

[Biffins]

Please everyone-stop talking about Gronk.

We're desperate.

 

[Biffins]

Hm, so basically...getting Tom at 23 mill is effectively "10" and if they get someone else say Dalton at 5 (he's probably worth more than that just an example) it's basically 18?

For 2020 yes. With Tom we can (and have been) keep rolling the cap hit forward while he’s here.

 

[Froob]

For 2020 yes. With Tom we can (and have been) keep rolling the cap hit forward while he’s here.

Okay that makes a huge difference then. Was unaware of that. I'd think they'd want to keep him then.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Hm, so basically...getting Tom at 23 mill is effectively "10" and if they get someone else say Dalton at 5 (he's probably worth more than that just an example) it's basically 18?

Yep.

For me, I think Tom has gas left for one more solid year. I'd spend $5m extra on him than Dalton.

 

[Chevrolet]

For 2020 yes. With Tom we can (and have been) keep rolling the cap hit forward while he’s here.

True its 13.5 million that will come off Pats cap

If Brady leaves after this season its 13.5 next year
If he leaves after 2020 its 6.75 next year and 6.75 the following year
If amazingly he stays through 2021 its 4..5 next three years

so it does help with the bonus he is owed BUT each year he stays it is going to cost whatever Tom and his agent and BB can agree to over and above the bonus money above.

If Tom wants 20-25/season over and above that bonus, is it worth it to the team? I suspect this decision will be influenced greatly by what happens Saturday night and remainder of playoffs.

• If Pats lose Saturday night and TB does not look good, I think it will be time to say goodbye
• If Pats lose and TB looks good, much tougher decision

Whether Tom stays or goes it is well beyond the time when they have to start addressing Brady's long term successor.

 

[RobertWeathers]

True its 13.5 million that will come off Pats cap

If Brady leaves after this season its 13.5 next year
If he leaves after 2020 its 6.75 next year and 6.75 the following year
If amazingly he stays through 2021 its 4..5 next three years

so it does help with the bonus he is owed BUT each year he stays it is going to cost whatever Tom and his agent and BB can agree to over and above the bonus money above.

If Tom wants 20-25/season over and above that bonus, is it worth it to the team? I suspect this decision will be influenced greatly by what happens Saturday night and remainder of playoffs.

• If Pats lose Saturday night and TB does not look good, I think it will be time to say goodbye
• If Pats lose and TB looks good, much tougher decision

Whether Tom stays or goes it is well beyond the time when they have to start addressing Brady's long term successor.

Bill has never, ever, never made a personnel evaluation based on the single-game performance of a veteran who has been with the team for years.

They'll be some more thought and discussion but I'm pretty sure the die has already been cast.

 

[Froob]

True its 13.5 million that will come off Pats cap

If Brady leaves after this season its 13.5 next year
If he leaves after 2020 its 6.75 next year and 6.75 the following year
If amazingly he stays through 2021 its 4..5 next three years

so it does help with the bonus he is owed BUT each year he stays it is going to cost whatever Tom and his agent and BB can agree to over and above the bonus money above.

If Tom wants 20-25/season over and above that bonus, is it worth it to the team? I suspect this decision will be influenced greatly by what happens Saturday night and remainder of playoffs.

• If Pats lose Saturday night and TB does not look good, I think it will be time to say goodbye
• If Pats lose and TB looks good, much tougher decision

Whether Tom stays or goes it is well beyond the time when they have to start addressing Brady's long term successor.

Man it'd have been nice to have Brissett right about now. Stidham probably isn't ready to start.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

The dead money hit from the current contract does not "fall off the books" if they keep Brady.

If they extend him before March 4 (or whenever it is the current contract voids) there is an unavoidable $6.75mil hit to the 2020 cap on top of his cash salary for 2020 and the pro-rata share of any new signing bonus/guaranteed money. Likewise for 2021.

If his contract is not extended before the void date and does void, then there is an unavoidable $13.5mil hit to the 2020 cap whether or not they re-sign him, and any cash and amortized monies from a new contract will have a 2020 cap hit on top of that $13.5mil. However, in this case the voided contract won't cause any cap hit at all in 2021.

So cap-wise, extending Brady is $6.75mil "cheaper" than signing someone else for the same money. However, re-signing Brady after the void date is no different than signing someone else.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

True its 13.5 million that will come off Pats cap

If Brady leaves after this season its 13.5 next year
If he leaves after 2020 its 6.75 next year and 6.75 the following year
If amazingly he stays through 2021 its 4..5 next three years

First two are correct, last one is wrong.

 

[Chevrolet]

Bill has never, ever, never made a personnel evaluation based on the single-game performance of a veteran who has been with the team for years.

They'll be some more thought and discussion for sure but I'm pretty sure the die has already been cast.

I agree with you. One playoff game should not be the sole factor. But if the decision is still up in the air, an unexpectedly great performance in the playoffs by TB might make them think twice.The decision has most likely already been made. THe hard part is that probably BB and RK have had to reach an understanding.

You know BB looks at cold hard facts and does not let emotion or sentimentality creep into the decision

RK has repeatedly said that TB is like a son to him and he wants him to finish his career in NE. Brady has almost unilaterally increased the value of the franchise which he bought for 175 million to now worth over 3 billion.

In the end I say RK trusts his long time head coach BB to make the decision and he decides that this is the last year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree with you. One playoff game should not be the sole factor. But if the decision is still up in the air, an unexpectedly great performance in the playoffs by TB might make them think twice.The decision has most likely already been made. THe hard part is that probably BB and RK have had to reach an understanding.

You know BB looks at cold hard facts and does not let emotion or sentimentality creep into the decision

RK has repeatedly said that TB is like a son to him and he wants him to finish his career in NE. Brady has almost unilaterally increased the value of the franchise which he bought for 175 million to now worth over 3 billion.

In the end I say RK trusts his long time head coach BB to make the decision and he decides that this is the last year.

I think the decision is still up air and there are dozens of variables which can influence it (money, final evaluation, heath, what Tom wants, cap $, Gisele, etc).

I do agree when it comes time, Bob will let BB make the final decision or there might be some posturing or PR spun which makes it a "mutual" decision.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Bill has never, ever, never made a personnel evaluation based on the single-game performance of a veteran who has been with the team for years.

They'll be some more thought and discussion but I'm pretty sure the die has already been cast.

Right, that approach is reserved for rookies.

 

[PatsDeb]

There was a huge disservice paid to Brady this year. Offensive line was putrid and the weapons just were not there. The biggest loss in my opinion was gronk. They never replaced him or even 10% of what he brings to pass pro and his threat in the red zone. If I was Brady I wouldn’t want to come back. So is the question wether or not there will be enough money under the cap. There will, because none of it will be getting spent on the goat. He is all done.

I agree that this year was a disservice to Brady, but that doesn't mean he won't be back. There are other years where things didn't click and the team re-loaded, which is what they have to do this off-season, particularly at TE. I want Brady back and I hope the team and some fans come to their senses and see that there is no better option out there. He's still the GOAT, and he's still the best QB out there for the Pats, whether his skills have diminished somewhat or not (a real question as injuries and other deficiencies discussed ad nauseum have contributed to the disappointment this year, which year isn't even over yet). By the same token, I would think long & hard if I was Brady about going elsewhere as who wants to start over at age 43 in a new facility, with a new system with all new folks? In both cases, the devil you know is better than the one you don't. I hope everyone involved can see that, but everyone seems intent on running Brady out of town, which is incredible to me.

 

[upstater1]

I agree with you. One playoff game should not be the sole factor. But if the decision is still up in the air, an unexpectedly great performance in the playoffs by TB might make them think twice.The decision has most likely already been made. THe hard part is that probably BB and RK have had to reach an understanding.

You know BB looks at cold hard facts and does not let emotion or sentimentality creep into the decision

RK has repeatedly said that TB is like a son to him and he wants him to finish his career in NE. Brady has almost unilaterally increased the value of the franchise which he bought for 175 million to now worth over 3 billion.

In the end I say RK trusts his long time head coach BB to make the decision and he decides that this is the last year.

All of this may be true, but... to let him go means they are relatively certain Stidham is the future. If they don't have that confidence, it is crazy to let Brady go. Other teams in this situation (no capable replacement) have bit the bullet and paid out the $$. Even the Bills gave Tyrod Taylor $20m years ago, before they traded him for a premium draft pick.

I haven't had the sense on these boards that Patriots fans have truly discussed who will be calling plays next year if not Brady. Getting a Dalton quality QB doesn't make sense because of the money (will be near to Brady's cap hit), and we have no one other than Stidham to elevate to that spot. We won't be in position to draft a QB unless we take a stiff like Fromm.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I think that Brady, the coaches & FA players should all do what they judge best suits their careers & families.
This fanboy prefers that it be with the Patriots but "it is what it is."

 

[Chevrolet]

All of this may be true, but... to let him go means they are relatively certain Stidham is the future. If they don't have that confidence, it is crazy to let Brady go. Other teams in this situation (no capable replacement) have bit the bullet and paid out the $$. Even the Bills gave Tyrod Taylor $20m years ago, before they traded him for a premium draft pick.

I haven't had the sense on these boards that Patriots fans have truly discussed who will be calling plays next year if not Brady. Getting a Dalton quality QB doesn't make sense because of the money (will be near to Brady's cap hit), and we have no one other than Stidham to elevate to that spot. We won't be in position to draft a QB unless we take a stiff like Fromm.

Seems like there are 2 options for Pats here

1. Re-sign Brady even if he wants 25-30 million next year, while simultaneously planning for TB successor. If they think it is Stidham, then they could groom Stidham and or possibly another QB (e.g. Jalen Hurt or Josh Rosen) under Brady for another year or two and start him from day 1 when Brady finally retires.

Downside to this approach is that as long as Brady is getting paid they may be hamstrung a bit for acquiring top tier free agents


2. If Patriots and BB specifically are totally convinced he is done and do not want to pay the 25-30 million to Brady for another 1-2 years, they let him walk and try to make smart decisions with the additional cap space.
As far as QB of the future, in training camp and preseason next year they have competition with at least 3 QB's
Stidham, a veteran QB and perhaps another drafted QB (like Jaylen Hurt). The winner of this competition starts the regular season

Downside; New QB does not get benefit of TB's knowledge and experience to prep him for what is coming. Also, what happens in training camp and preseason sometimes does not accurately predict what happens when games are for real and next year could be brutal from a W-L perspective


It will all likely come down to BB's assessment of Brady.

 

[Hyped]

SIGN THE BEAST!

 

[luuked]

Okay that makes a huge difference then. Was unaware of that. I'd think they'd want to keep him then.

Except it is not true. Those 13.5m are gone no matter what because they have been paid out as bonus already and everything else is just creative accounting to make individual cap numbers work.

Yes, you can structure Brady's extension around that money and essentially defer the same amount of money into the next year to make it look like a wash but you will still have to pay it eventually. Also you can do that with anyone you sign. You can sign Dalton/Mariota/Whoever to a 2 year deal with a similar structure.

What you can't do is make that hit disappear. The bill will come due one way or the other.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

What you can't do is make that hit disappear. The bill will come due one way or the other.

Yup.

There’s only two ways it goes: you extend Brady and then you have a $6.75mil dead money hit from the original contract in 2020 and 2021, or you let the contract void and you have a $13.5m dead money hit in 2020.

There’s nothing you can do to make it go away. Those are your only options. So at a minimum there will be a $6.75mil dead money hit in 2020 no matter what you do with Brady.