Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

[Biffins]

Agree but we are all speculating.

For example if fans want to pay Tom $30m in 2021, what does that look like and how does it impact the team's ability to sign/resign its players or extend the ones they want here long term.?

Let’s start with bringing Tom back. Then equip him as best as possible with a supporting cast. Hopefully the FO doesn't bungle it again.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I wouldn't make playing at all-pro level a condition, but strong effort should be made to retain Van Noy, Shelton, Butler, Karras, Bethel and maybe Roberts (in addition to Thuney, who tops the list). I'd also like to see D. McCourtey back at a team-friendly price. Slater and Ebner probably are back cheap. I don't know what the hell to think about Jamie Collins, but word is he wants to cash in elsewhere. Dorsett probably is gone.

Agree. I was thinking about the big ticket players.

Those who you mention add up but I only see Thuney as big, long term $.

Van Noy turns 29 in March. He might have 2 years at his current level of play.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Let’s start with bringing Tom back. Then equip him as best as possible with a supporting cast. Hopefully the FO doesn't bungle it again.

To your point, depends on $ with Tom.

One thing I do know is it won't be drawn out with Tom. Pats will have a $ in mind. They will let Tom shop. If they can't make it happen, they will move on and so will he.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Well, other than Thuney who else deserves big money/extension who has multiple years left playing at a close-to All Pro level who is under 30?

That’s why I wrote re-sign/sign. They will obviously target UFAs from other teams. They may also need the cap room for a trade.

I wasn’t aware of the big dead cap charge if Brady and the Pats fail to agree to an extension by March 18th. What if he decides to retire, either after the final game or before March 18th, if he decides that it will be the Pats or nothing next year? Will that dead cap charge be wiped out? IMO he will be making a big mistake if he signals with another teams....risk/reward doesn’t favor it, for several reasons.

Having an extra 6.75 million to play with could still be significant.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Agree. I was thinking about the big ticket players.

Those who you mention add up but I only see Thuney as big, long term $.

Van Noy turns 29 in March. He might have 2 years at his current level of play.

Thuney should be the priority but Shelton had a Pro Bowl level season.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That’s why I wrote re-sign/sign. They will obviously target UFAs from other teams. They may also need the cap room for a trade.

I wasn’t aware of the big dead cap charge if Brady and the Pats fail to agree to an extension by March 18th. What if he decides to retire, either after the final game or before March 18th, if he decides that it will be the Pats or nothing next year? Will that dead cap charge be wiped out? IMO he will be making a big mistake if he signals with another teams....risk/reward doesn’t favor it, for several reasons.

Having an extra 6.75 million to play with could still be significant.

Pats are charged $13.5m if hes gone. Its to their benefit to get him to play in 2020 preferably around 20-23m with some cap hitting 2020 and 2021 but not too much.

Thuney should be the priority but Shelton had a Pro Bowl level season.

Agree but I dont think Shelton will be an overpay.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Count you out from what? Future SB wins with Brady? Errr ok. Sure.

You are assuming that Brady can still be a SB-level QB at the age of 44. Some Pats fans who have tried to view Brady’s play this year in an impartial manner, rather than blaming everyone but Brady for the offensive woes, have serious doubts about this. You wrote “wins” (plural) so I assume that you expect him to be a SB caliber QB at a minimum through his age 45 season? I’d love for you to be right on that but it seems highly unlikely.

 

[Chevrolet]

Why would we want to bottom out. All this tanking talk is just utter nonsense

Do not want to bottom out.
Still try to win games with Stidham or similarly priced QB.

The end result is most likely to be low number of wins for 2 or 3 years/

But NOT advocating for intentional tanking. It is a rebuild but still try to win as much as possible.

 

[FCB02062]

To those saying "surround Brady with WEAPONZ!". Have you seen the 2020 receiver FA list? Not very impressive... Unless Krafty will overpay for Randall Cobb or Robby Anderson

 

[fightingirish595]

To those saying "surround Brady with WEAPONZ!". Have you seen the 2020 receiver FA list? Not very impressive... Unless Krafty will overpay for Randall Cobb or Robby Anderson

too bad nfl teams can’t make trades or get players in the draft

 

[rochrist]

$20m is too much? Brissett got almost $30m per year.......

I think you need to survey the QBs salaries and figure out where Brady is good value. And trying to go for draft is a proven crapshoot with no guarantee. Same with Stidham.

Stop comparing our cap space to teams like Chiefs and Ravens who have superstar QBs on rookie deals. Once they put these guys on $40m per year contracts, then we’ll see how their cap space looks.

And ofcourse every team wants to find that NFL MVP QB on a rookie contract like Chiefs and Ravens did. But clearly most teams don’t find that guy. Draft is a crapshoot.

Brisset isn't 43 years old coming off the worst year of his career.

 

[rochrist]

Awkward videos?

BB is awkward with everyone.

I don't think it's worth it to read into anything else except Tom had a down year, he'll be 43, a FA and the team needs to maximize 2020 cap space to fill out the roster as there will be defections and the need to get better in some areas.

That's all you really need to determine it's not a sure thing he's back here in 2020.

A down year at 43 means something different from a down year at 35.

 

[rochrist]

People look at Brady’s 01 stats and dismiss it as “game manager” the reality is he was a huge improvement over Drew Bledsoe and showed more pocket awareness and better decision making immediately. He injected life in that team and the 01 squad wasn’t winning a Super Bowl. And that team wasn’t winning a Bledsoe. So the idea Stidham could just fill in is suspect to say the least.

Stidham at this point is just a guy who happens to be on the team in a back up capacity and simply because he is there people are wishfully thinking he is the answer. If we rolled with Stidham, almost every team in the league would be going into next year with a more seasoned or accomplished QB. That’s not hyperbole either.

The idea that he could lead anyone to a SB when he had to get tanked this year from being a back up is just comical. And even if he improved from what we saw, that doesn’t even make him close to average for a starter.

If you honestly think we need to move on from Brady, then realize Stidham probably isn’t going to be the answer, a free agent will cost way above their actual value to this team, and your better off taking your chances drafting. And if all that likely holds true, having Brady an extra year or two while we make plays to draft a QB isn’t the worst case scenario.

What does 'when he had to get tanked this year from being a back up' mean? And no, I doubt they'd win the SB with him. That doesn't mean that with Bill coaching him the team wouldn't be competitive.

 

[rochrist]

The Browns effectively tanked for a decade and still stink. Re-tool and come back looking for another title.

The Browns had clowns running the show.

 

[rochrist]

Stidham or someone at a similar or slihghtly higher price is key in order to give the Patriots a couple of years of cap space in FA market.

If Brady leaves and Stidham is performing well enough to keep the starters job for 1-2 years it would be great as he will be on rookie salary.

If he does not work out could consider 1-2 years of JAG veteran QB who will come relatively cheap e.g.:

Cody Kessler, Brett Hundley, Chase Daniel, AJ Mccaron, Bortles, Glennon, Matt Moore


It would be amazing if they could get a steal in the draft in rounds 2 or 3 for a QB like Jalen Hurt, who I think is very undervalued, tough as nails and athletic but could be very good with solid coaching around him


Unless the team gets unbelievably luck and Stidham outperforms what everyone thinks he can do, 1-3 years of mediocre QB play at best is likely going to happen. Need to bottom out to reach contender status again, most likely.

"Outperforms what everyone other than the Patriots coaching staff thinks he can do...."

FTFY

 

[lancerman]

What does 'when he had to get tanked this year from being a back up' mean? And no, I doubt they'd win the SB with him. That doesn't mean that with Bill coaching him the team wouldn't be competitive.

*yanked.

IE they pulled the starter in a game they were dominating and he did so poorly at just running out clock that they had to put Brady in. If he can’t do that, I don’t know how he can be expected to in any way he some type of answer for this team

 

[rochrist]

*yanked.

IE they pulled the starter in a game they were dominating and he did so poorly at just running out clock that they had to put Brady in. If he can’t do that, I don’t know how he can be expected to in any way he some type of answer for this team

I expect Bill takes a somewhat longer view than you.

 

[Chevrolet]

The only expert who thinks that fake ESPN stat is worth a damn is Skip Bayless.

According to QBR, Jameis Winston had a better season than Aaron Rodgers. It was literally bs designed to make Tim Tebow look good.

At one point Charlie Batch had the greatest individual QBR in a game. This was a game he threw for under 200 yards and had 2 picks.

They also constantly change the formula for the stat.

Sorry but most sites that discuss football will laugh people out of the room for using QBR with any authority. It's widely considered a joke. Famously even. There's probably no single more controversial football stat than QBR to the point where alot of stat sites don't even list it.

OK so if you do not like QBR, lets look at passer rating TD's and Interceptions and AY/A,Y/C, longest pass completed over same time frame for TB 12:

2016 TD 28 INT 2 passer rating 112.2
2017 TD 32 INT 8 passer rating 102.8
2018 TD 29 INT 11 passer rating 97.7
2019 TD 24 INT 8 passer rating 88

TD % also went down every one of these past 4 years. Average Yards/attempt also went steadily down over same 4 years as did Yards/completion as did longest pass completed. Just about every statistical QB data category has consistently worsened from age 39-42

Can't blame it completely on crappy personnel , because he had Gronk and great OL for some of those years. Can't blame it on bad elbow because that is new this year. Bottom line is that the QB performance based evidence is overwhelming that from age 39-42 his overall performance has steadily gotten worse each year and it can not be blamed solely on bad personnel around him or injuries

This is not at all to knock him Its amazing what he is doing at 42. Peyton flamed out at 39. Just trying to say that it is unlikely that this is a mirage. If you owned the club and were making key decisions simply based on facts and not other non factual contributors (e.g. loyalty, sentimentality, fan input, desire to keep him from another team), signing TB12 for even 1more year at anything over 20M/year is not a sound investment based on his performance metrics for the past 4 seasons and his age.

 

[Biffins]

To those saying "surround Brady with WEAPONZ!". Have you seen the 2020 receiver FA list? Not very impressive... Unless Krafty will overpay for Randall Cobb or Robby Anderson

Trying to get a TE better than LaCosse is a low bar to clear.

Also when they decided to retool WR corps in 2007 they spent 4th on Moss and 2nd on Welker. More recently they spent a 1st on Cooks. They also desperately spent a 2nd Sanu during season. They traded Brissett to get Dorsett. Point is they have options beyond the FA market.

 

[lancerman]

I expect Bill takes a somewhat longer view than you.

In NFL history how many QB’s couldn’t be trusted to be a competent back up and ended up being relevant?