Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

[RobertWeathers]

A down year at 43 means something different from a down year at 35.

Very true. Just gotta see how this all plays out

 

[Tunescribe]

In NFL history how many QB’s couldn’t be trusted to be a competent back up and ended up being relevant?

68 ... including the likes of Sonny Jurgensen and none other than Tom Brady.

 

[Caretaker]

Do I want Tom Brady to play for us in 2020? Yes
Do I want him to get a good contract? Yes
Am I okay with Tom Brady being slightly overpaid? Yes
Am I okay with Tom Brady getting absurd money, seriously hindering this team? Well... I'm not sure.

But I don't think Brady would ask for such money. I mean, he's not chasing 35+ million, I'm almost positive. I guess he's more like:
"If I am to have another year of workouts, rehabs, practice, flights, building chemistry with new players, another year somewhat away from my family - then you'd better make SURE I have good players around me".

His legacy isn't built around 5000 yards, 40+ TDs, 110+ passer rating season in-season out. He needs some stats, good throws, couple impressive touchdowns, at least one AFC Player of the Week nod (so he's not perceived as a liability or Peyton 2015), but other than that, he'd rather have a team of 2014-17 quality, with some depth and at least 2 juicy options on offense (other than JE or White).

And I REALLY want to see him finishing his career here, unlike Olajuwons, Montanas or Celts Big Three.

 

[50-yard-line]

Brady carries a 13.5mil dead cap hit. If he leaves or retires they are paying that much at the QB1 position right off the bat. How can they bring anyone else in if people above think the pats can't afford to pay him 25. It doesn't add up. Brady probably wanted 2-3 year contract at the start of the year and the Pats rightfully balked at that. He will be back. They will pay him 23-27. No one makes less than 20. The only way he's not back is if BB truly thinks TB is done and in which case they wouldn't offer him 18 or anything at all. It's not about Brady taking a certain amount. I believe the amount will be easy for both parties. 1 year deal - push the dead money another year and make another run. You can't bring anyone in from the outside + Brady's dead money hit and make a run, and Stidham isn't ready. Bridge year? If BB thinks Brady sucks maybe.

If they can't bring anyone else in (I agree), how can they pay Brady QB1 money? They'd have to redo this deal and push another 10+ into the following year, and we'd be right back here next January...

The instability at the position didn't help anything this season. If they wanted to keep Brady around for 2-3 years, they should have signed him that way to start. If they wanted to "wait and see," well, what exactly did they see?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Do I want Tom Brady to play for us in 2020? Yes
Do I want him to get a good contract? Yes
Am I okay with Tom Brady being slightly overpaid? Yes
Am I okay with Tom Brady getting absurd money, seriously hindering this team? Well... I'm not sure.

But I don't think Brady would ask for such money. I mean, he's not chasing 35+ million, I'm almost positive. I guess he's more like:
"If I am to have another year of workouts, rehabs, practice, flights, building chemistry with new players, another year somewhat away from my family - then you'd better make SURE I have good players around me".

His legacy isn't built around 5000 yards, 40+ TDs, 110+ passer rating season in-season out. He needs some stats, good throws, couple impressive touchdowns, at least one AFC Player of the Week nod (so he's not perceived as a liability or Peyton 2015), but other than that, he'd rather have a team of 2014-17 quality, with some depth and at least 2 juicy options on offense (other than JE or White).

And I REALLY want to see him finishing his career here, unlike Olajuwons, Montanas or Celts Big Three.

Chief left the Cs at 41 years old.

Dream was 38.

For posterity's sake you could argue they both played longer than they should have.

We all want Tom to call it a career here but sometimes it takes both sides to know when a career is over.

I think it was 2009 TC and Bru was having a tough time getting around. His knee did not heal in the offseason like he had hoped. Bill pulled him aside and asked how he was doing. Bru said he felt great except the knee. Bill told Tedy he was not the player he was and what Bill needed right now. Tedy trusted Bill to give him an honest recommendation on what he should do. Bill suggested he retire.

I'm not sure Bill and Tom have that kind of relationship. I don't think the situations are the same but I do wonder if there is a disconnect pertaining to how Tom perceives himself and Bill's evaluation.

At any rate, that reconsiliation will happen in the form of a contract negotiation.

 

[Biffins]

A down year at 43 means something different from a down year at 35.

He’s 42 not 43. And in 2013 he was 36 not 35. Not that I am implying you are tweaking stats to fit your narrative.

 

[Biffins]

If they can't bring anyone else in (I agree), how can they pay Brady QB1 money? They'd have to redo this deal and push another 10+ into the following year, and we'd be right back here next January...

The instability at the position didn't help anything this season. If they wanted to keep Brady around for 2-3 years, they should have signed him that way to start. If they wanted to "wait and see," well, what exactly did they see?

I agree. The only way this makes sense is if they want to wait and see if Brady decides to resign. In that case they do not want to hand out a big multi year signing bonus if your player retires after one year.

 

[Tunescribe]

I do wonder if there is a disconnect pertaining to how Tom perceives himself and Bill's evaluation.

Brady's perspective is skewed by (1) pushing his TB12 enterprise as the fountain of youth and (2) believing he's as good as ever given the right tools (receivers) to work with. The second point is a thorny one because there likely is some truth to it but is much easier said than done. From BB's end there was no lack of trying this year -- spending a first-round pick on a WR and bringing in AB. Imagine if AB stayed and Harry wasn't injured, the team would be at least 13-3 and have a good shot at defending its title.

 

[Biffins]

Do I want Tom Brady to play for us in 2020? Yes
Do I want him to get a good contract? Yes
Am I okay with Tom Brady being slightly overpaid? Yes
Am I okay with Tom Brady getting absurd money, seriously hindering this team? Well... I'm not sure.

But I don't think Brady would ask for such money. I mean, he's not chasing 35+ million, I'm almost positive. I guess he's more like:
"If I am to have another year of workouts, rehabs, practice, flights, building chemistry with new players, another year somewhat away from my family - then you'd better make SURE I have good players around me".

His legacy isn't built around 5000 yards, 40+ TDs, 110+ passer rating season in-season out. He needs some stats, good throws, couple impressive touchdowns, at least one AFC Player of the Week nod (so he's not perceived as a liability or Peyton 2015), but other than that, he'd rather have a team of 2014-17 quality, with some depth and at least 2 juicy options on offense (other than JE or White).

And I REALLY want to see him finishing his career here, unlike Olajuwons, Montanas or Celts Big Three.

All of this makes sense. Plus Brady’s 13.5m cap hit means that we are no better off any other scenario anyway. Suppose we go with Stidham. We’ll have to get a veteran backup QB. That would cost 5-6m. Total cap hit for 2020 for QB position. 13.5 + 1 + 6 = 20.5. If they get Brady for let’s say 23-25m. Total hit would be 25 ish with same 13.5 or more rolled over to next year. They could roll an even bigger number if they wanted to reduce that cap hit.

For 2020 atleast, replacing Brady will NOT improve our chances of winning. You have to think 2021 and beyond.

 

[Tunescribe]

All of this makes sense. Plus Brady’s 13.5m cap hit means that we are no better off any other scenario anyway. Suppose we go with Stidham. We’ll have to get a veteran backup QB. That would cost 5-6m.

Not necessarily true. There are veteran backup QBs making less than $1 million. Even then, having one might be prudent but is not a necessity.

For 2020 atleast, replacing Brady will NOT improve our chances of winning. You have to think 2021 and beyond.

Not necessarily true either, tons of factors involved.

 

[Tottie]

If they can't bring anyone else in (I agree), how can they pay Brady QB1 money? They'd have to redo this deal and push another 10+ into the following year, and we'd be right back here next January...

The instability at the position didn't help anything this season. If they wanted to keep Brady around for 2-3 years, they should have signed him that way to start. If they wanted to "wait and see," well, what exactly did they see?

Ya they push it off another year like the saints are doing and take another run at it. That's why you bring him back one year, if you feel he can do so. If not, you run with the second year QB but don't expect to make the playoffs. Also, what Brady is making right now is not elite money and every year the cap goes up. 25 mil is not elite money. I don't think he's done, but chronic injuries might be a concern. I don't think BB will offer him a raise either, so he'll probably get like 23mil if they want him back. Maybe more with incentives would be a good compromise.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Brady's perspective is skewed by (1) pushing his TB12 enterprise as the fountain of youth and (2) believing he's as good as ever given the right tools (receivers) to work with. The second point is a thorny one because there likely is some truth to it but is much easier said than done. From BB's end there was no lack of trying this year -- spending a first-round pick on a WR and bringing in AB. Imagine if AB stayed and Harry wasn't injured, the team would be at least 13-3 and have a good shot at defending its title.

Agree

...and Andrews and Wynn also playing 90% of the snaps.

The question is how much degradation in play does BB think Tom has experienced?

 

[Tunescribe]

Agree

...and Andrews and Wynn also playing 90% of the snaps.

The question is how much degradation in play does BB think Tom has experienced?

A real wildcard might be the impending departure of McDaniels. The time might be right for a new OC creating a new system for a younger QB like Stidham -- perhaps not as complex and accommodating his mobility.

 

[RobertWeathers]

A real wildcard might be the impending departure of McDaniels. The time might be right for a new OC creating a new system for a younger QB like Stidham -- perhaps not as complex and accommodating his mobility.

Yep. With Josh and Tom gone that super-advanced level of gameplanning, playcalling, in-game and in down adjustments and evolution goes with it. It's good and bad.

According to reports that is why Flo wacked OShea (system too complex for young QBs) but I'm not sure I buy that. I think it had more to do with playcalling and boss/employee relationship.

IMO there is no reason why they can't scale back the E/P offense and for simplicity's sake reduce the # of options and things to think about so young WRs and young QBs can play faster sooner. Yes the in-game advantages are reduced but the upside is knowing sooner than later of a young player can play.

With that said I can't see Bill ripping out the E/P system and using something else but I can see him scaling back the different permutations and extensibility so its more "user friendly" to younger players.

I think a big determining factor is how much Stidham has learned and what can he apply in real world conditions.

 

[50-yard-line]

ell, the good news - whether it's 2020, 21, or 22 - is that QBs are coming out of college more prepared for the pro-game now.

I think Burrows will hit big. Tua, too, possibly.

Kyler Murray, Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, even Darnold - can all be SB-winning QBs with the right coaching and system around them. And judging by the successes of the "has-beens" of late, it seems the OCs are scheming better for the strength of a QB, as opposed to the heydays of Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Eli, etc, when the classic drop-back passer was all there really was (which was why Aaron Rodgers was so beloved by the media).

The league will adjust that position as it does with every other position. We're already seeing that with the Pats last year, Tennessee and Baltimore this year.

 

[Biffins]

Brady's perspective is skewed by (1) pushing his TB12 enterprise as the fountain of youth and (2) believing he's as good as ever given the right tools (receivers) to work with. The second point is a thorny one because there likely is some truth to it but is much easier said than done. From BB's end there was no lack of trying this year -- spending a first-round pick on a WR and bringing in AB. Imagine if AB stayed and Harry wasn't injured, the team would be at least 13-3 and have a good shot at defending its title.

Yes I agree BB tried his best to fix the position. He tried to get Adan Humphries aggressively. He went and got AB and had Early Bird Bob scuttle the season instead by jettisoning him and saddling our cap space. Then he went and got Sanu. So yeah BB has been trying, I agree. I still fault him for not getting a TE in either the draft or FA or trade. TEs have been a big part of our offense all decade and are conspicuous in their absenee.

Maybe Gronk comes back next year after a year’s rest and recharge. He’s only 31.

 

[p8ryts]

Yes I agree BB tried his best to fix the position. He tried to get Adan Humphries aggressively. He went and got AB and had Early Bird Bob scuttle the season instead by jettisoning him and saddling our cap space. Then he went and got Sanu. So yeah BB has been trying, I agree. I still fault him for not getting a TE in either the draft or FA or trade. TEs have been a big part of our offense all decade and are conspicuous in their absenee.

Maybe Gronk comes back next year after a year’s rest and recharge. He’s only 31.

Please everyone-stop talking about Gronk.

 

[ohiopatsfan]

At least with the Browns, BB erred on the side of cutting a franchise QB (Bernie Kosar) a year too early rather than a year too late. I don't know what the dead cap hit would be if TB were cut or traded, but that will figure into the decision.

 

[RobertWeathers]

At least with the Browns, BB erred on the side of cutting a franchise QB (Bernie Kosar) a year too early rather than a year too late. I don't know what the dead cap hit would be if TB were cut or traded, but that will figure into the decision.

$13.5m.

 

[Froob]

Please everyone-stop talking about Gronk.

I think if Tom sticks around it's possible, he;s definitely out if Tom isn't coming back though. But, until Gronk says he's in we may as well forget about it and save ourselves the heartache.