If We Pick At 15

[Tony2046]

Not a single contradiction


newton sucks. Newton sucks with bad receivers. Newton sucks with good receivers.
I am talking about DEVELOPING A QB not making excuses for a garbage one


No because if they have the skill set and potential to develop into a star they are long gone.


no need for us to argue, just watch where they are drafted. Every one will be drafted in a slot where potential superstars are drafted. I am right by FACT.

talk about contradiction. You are arguing against a statement that they have the tools necessary to succeed by talking about developing, while my entire point is you draft the tools and you coach them to develop.

" What you are saying is it’s too expensive to get a good QBs so I’m going to keep getting crappy ones and hope."

Three plus first round picks to move up to get the fourth least wanted QB is too expensive.

You're right by fact? What fact? You're rolling dice and willing to pay more than anyone else has to be the fourth or fifth guy to roll. That's the fact.

Fact? The top four QBs are potential "super stars" ?? That's BS. Wow.

Doesn't matter though. I trust BB won't mortgage the future to move up. I suspect that if he sees a top five rated player drop because of the QB gold rush he'll snap him up making the team better.

I also suspect that he'll find a way to get the next franchise QB without mortgaging the future.

 

[mgteich]

Then the question becomes "does BB think the 5th QB is better than the other players available at #15, or the picks you can get in trade for #15" and I think the answer to that is no. BB's more likely to trade down and pick the 8th best QB in the second or third rounds, or just use our 2nd or 3rd for a QB and pick a non-QB blue chipper at #15.

IMO, odds are only 10% that BB will take a QB at #15, i.e. 9 to 1 against picking a QB. I think most media members feel the same way, but that doesn't generate clicks, so they keep sexing up the QB angle.

QB success/failure is a skewed statistic for several reasons. Teams that need QBs usually draft them very high, so these guys get a chance. Teams that don't need QBs draft backups in later rounds, so even the guys who might make it don't see the field for years, while the rest of the league moves on to the "next best thing." Few teams want to grab a 5th year "rookie," when getting an actual rookie is cheaper and with longer-term cost control.

That peculiarity is not true of any other position in sports. It also greatly skews "success" to those taken by QB-needy teams, because they, you know, actually get a chance to play.

A perfect illustration of this is when Washington drafted RGIII (can't miss, different but same level as Luck!!!!!!!!) in Round 1 and Kirk Cousins, who's had a much better career, three rounds later.

This is also why you're seeing guys like Darnold getting the reclamation project. Another guy who might be worth giving a shot is Josh Rosen, who fell into a terrible position coming out, where he was running for his life every other play.

Of playoff games in the last 10 seasons, how many were won by quarterbacks drafted after the first round? What percentages is that?

 

[Ring 6]

You're right by fact? What fact? You're rolling dice and willing to pay more than anyone else has to be the fourth or fifth guy to roll. That's the fact.

Fact? The top four QBs are potential "super stars" ?? That's BS. Wow.

Doesn't matter though. I trust BB won't mortgage the future to move up. I suspect that if he sees a top five rated player drop because of the QB gold rush he'll snap him up making the team better.

I also suspect that he'll find a way to get the next franchise QB without mortgaging the future.

The fact that all of those QBs will be drafted in a spot that only players with super star potential are drafted.

Professionals who have done 10,000 times more evaluation than you, have inordinately greater skill and knowledge to evaluate with than you and are putting their jobs on the line will draft these QBs in a spot reserved for potential superstars. FACT

“You suspect” but you have no clue. You are eliminating the area of the draft where QBs are found and praying for a miracle.

You have an amazing ability to ignore direct questions that expose the gaping holes in your opinion.

such as:
HOW do we get a QBs?
Why would you trade 3 1s for the top qb in the draft but not for the guy who would be next year if he stayed in school?

 

[mgteich]

I also suspect that he'll find a way to get the next franchise QB without mortgaging the future.

as he did last year?

What you are saying is that we should stay at 15 and draft the best player available, perhaps Horn and then not extend one of Gilmore or Jackson.
THEN Belichick will have another opportunity to wait out the next few months and peform a miracle by acquiring a QB that will lead us deep into the playoffs this year and/or next. Last year that miracle is Newton.

NOW THE QUESTION
If we don't draft one of the top 5 quarterbacks, why does anyone think that Belichick won't go with Cam this year? He likely had opportunties to acquire someone other than Cam, some that poster might even think is better than Cam.

 

[Ring 6]

Then the question becomes "does BB think the 5th QB is better than the other players available at #15, or the picks you can get in trade for #15" and I think the answer to that is no. BB's more likely to trade down and pick the 8th best QB in the second or third rounds, or just use our 2nd or 3rd for a QB and pick a non-QB blue chipper at #15.

IMO, odds are only 10% that BB will take a QB at #15, i.e. 9 to 1 against picking a QB. I think most media members feel the same way, but that doesn't generate clicks, so they keep sexing up the QB angle.

Marino was the 6th QBs in his draft. Sam Bradford was the first in his.
Qbs are not better or worse based upon who else is in their draft class.

 

[Tony2046]

The fact that all of those QBs will be drafted in a spot that only players with super star potential are drafted.

Professionals who have done 10,000 times more evaluation than you, have inordinately greater skill and knowledge to evaluate with than you and are putting their jobs on the line will draft these QBs in a spot reserved for potential superstars. FACT

“You suspect” but you have no clue. You are eliminating the area of the draft where QBs are found and praying for a miracle.

You have an amazing ability to ignore direct questions that expose the gaping holes in your opinion.

such as:
HOW do we get a QBs?
Why would you trade 3 1s for the top qb in the draft but not for the guy who would be next year if he stayed in school?

???

Ok. I guess you win. Based on those "facts".

 

[mgteich]

The fact that all of those QBs will be drafted in a spot that only players with super star potential are drafted.

Professionals who have done 10,000 times more evaluation than you, have inordinately greater skill and knowledge to evaluate with than you and are putting their jobs on the line will draft these QBs in a spot reserved for potential superstars. FACT

“You suspect” but you have no clue. You are eliminating the area of the draft where QBs are found and praying for a miracle.

You have an amazing ability to ignore direct questions that expose the gaping holes in your opinion.

such as:
HOW do we get a QBs?
Why would you trade 3 1s for the top qb in the draft but not for the guy who would be next year if he stayed in school?

OPTION 1
Don't bother to try to really try to get a 1st round quarterback. After all, we cannot overspend for this one position.

OPTION 2
Draft a quarterback in the first round, using whatever resources are needed.

OPTION 3
Trade/sign a former first rounder or two.
====================
Are you ignoring the 3rd option?

 

[Ring 6]

as he did last year?

What you are saying is that we should stay at 15 and draft the best player available, perhaps Horn and then not extend one of Gilmore or Jackson.
THEN Belichick will have another opportunity to wait out the next few months and peform a miracle by acquiring a QB that will lead us deep into the playoffs this year and/or next. Last year that miracle is Newton.

NOW THE QUESTION
If we don't draft one of the top 5 quarterbacks, why does anyone think that Belichick won't go with Cam this year? He likely had opportunties to acquire someone other than Cam, some that poster might even think is better than Cam.

And next year too. If there are 4 top 5 worthy QBs this year and maybe 5 and we don’t want any of them, why would we want any next year?
Fields and Lance would each be projected as #1 overall next year if they had stayed in school.
If we won’t go up to 4 or 5 this year, which is also they year we have the most resources, we aren’t going up for anyone next year.
If fans here get their way we will handle the QB position like the bills did between Kelly and Allen. What a great model.

 

[Ring 6]

???

Ok. I guess you win. Based on those "facts".

They will be facts when the draft is complete, they really are now but you are too ignorant to admit it.

And I note you ignore the questions again.

Ironic that a guy who accuses others of “needing to be right” runs away from debating the issue when a point is raised that conflicts with your belief.

 

[50-yard-line]

Of playoff games in the last 10 seasons, how many were won by quarterbacks drafted after the first round? What percentages is that?

Doesn't this go exactly to my point that QBs drafted after the first round mostly don't even get a chance?

 

[Ring 6]

OPTION 1
Don't bother to try to really try to get a 1st round quarterback. After all, we cannot overspend for this one position.

OPTION 2
Draft a quarterback in the first round, using whatever resources are needed.

OPTION 3
Trade/sign a former first rounder or two.
====================
Are you ignoring the 3rd option?

Option 3 gets you garbage like newton.
It’s a possibility but the chances of it working out are slim. You are banking the success of your franchise on someone another franchise found wasn’t worth keeping around.

 

[50-yard-line]

Because talent.

Partly - and yes, the guys who seem to have the most talent are gobbled up right away (because the position is overdone in today's game). I stress "seem to," because "talent" is subjective. Many college QBs have the arm for the NFL. If that was all there is to it, coaching wouldn't matter nearly as much as you, yourself, admit.

From a distance, Brady didn't look like he had the "talent."

Look, I'm not saying you don't go after that high pick QB if you think he's the guy, but the idea that the only "guys" go early is skewed.

 

[Lansdowne]

Also to be considered is the Jets factor, ie how many teams draft QBs and then just ruin them when they might have proved to be good to excellent if drafted into the right situation with the right coaching staff. The sarcasm about RGIII is a little off since he's a prime example of a QB being ruined by his original team.

In RG3’s case he was only ruined by his original team in the sense that they could’ve been more protective of the knee injury that he suffered in Week 14 of his rookie season. They let him come back too soon instead of letting it heal properly, and he reaggravated the injury in the playoffs. Never fully recovered after that. He had performed excellent prior to that, even earning Pro Bowl and ROTY honors. A shame because he was a fun player to watch and was set up for stardom.

 

[whybob]

Trade back draft collins later in first round.

 

[rochrist]

In RG3’s case he was only ruined by his original team in the sense that they could’ve been more protective of the knee injury that he suffered in Week 14 of his rookie season. They let him come back too soon instead of letting it heal properly, and he reaggravated the injury in the playoffs. Never fully recovered after that. He had performed excellent prior to that, even earning Pro Bowl and ROTY honors. A shame because he was a fun player to watch and was set up for stardom.

Correct. But they did, in fact, ruin him. That was Shanahan wasn't it? So he was getting fine coaching. They just hung him out to dry physically.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Lawrence - definitely the board before we pick!
Wilson - probably off the board by the time we pick.
fields - aka Dwayne haskins part 2. He is an ABU prospect (anybody but us)!
Lance - total boom or bust player. Doubtful he falls to us.
Jones - primarily a one read qb. Perfect for San Fran.
mills - if the medicals are good, he fits best with us. Needs development work.
mond - he fits with us but needs a lot of development work,
Trask - from the neck up, he is better than Lawrence. But his lack of arm strength limits his ability to fit balls in tight windows.
Bueshele - short and lacks arm strength.

 

[Ring 6]

Doesn't this go exactly to my point that QBs drafted after the first round mostly don't even get a chance?

Many get the chance. The reason they aren’t first rounders is because they don’t have the skills needed.

Let me put this a different way.
There are a lot of first round qb busts. Those are the busts of QBs with the appropriate skill set that just don’t put it together at the next level.
Any QB who had the skillset to potentially be a franchise QB will get drafted in the first round. (I’ll edit that to “perceived” skill set)

So by the time you get out of the first round the QBs available are the ones who lack the skill set to project as a first round qb. 2nd round QBs = 6th round LBs basically.

And if you look back there are some obvious realities.
1) it is getting more pronounced as time goes on because of changes in the game (ask yourself this is Doug flutie was in khyler Murray’s draft class what happens?)
2) the outliers are outliers for a reason, and most are long ago before (1) happened.

Tom Brady was so frail that BB said he was afraid to put him in a game his rookie year
Drew Brees fell because the common belief at the time was he was too short to play in the NFL
Garoppolo, if we really consider him an exception, played at a very low competition level before it started being ignored.

as far as non first round QBs not getting a chance here is a list of those who have recently.

Tyrod
Stidham
Garopollo
Geno
Fitz
Rudolph
Landry
Kessler
Kizer
Finley
Minshew
Foles
Savage
Keenum
Brissett
Mcgloin (raider guy when cart was injured)
Lock
Mccoy
Hurts
Prescott
Allen
Blough
Driskell
Yates
Mullens
Beathard
Wilford
Hoyer

Really if you look at it they pretty much all either get a shot or are waiting behind a good qb to get their shot due to injury or change or they just showed their team they aren’t any good.
I mean how many can you name that deserve a shot and haven’t gotten one?

 

[resdubwhite]

Draft chart says 15 + next years 1 plus 2 4ths gets the patriots the #4 from Atlanta according to Breer. This would be a no brainer.

If they think the qb is worth it. If they see mond or mills as a decent consolation no way they do it

 

[mgteich]

Doesn't this go exactly to my point that QBs drafted after the first round mostly don't even get a chance?

Let us examine this logic. I'll make another statement.

7th rounders are as good as first rounders. The reason that we don't see more 6th round starters is that they are not given a chance.
===============
Many, many quarterbacks are drafted after the first round. Each team carries 3-4 into camp. There are lots and lots of practices, scrimmages and pre-season games. Some of the coaching staff is devoted to evaluating and trying to develop these quarterbacks.

Many of these quarterbacks, and occasionally play in NFL games.

We can ignore history or not. That is our choice. For me, we should continue to develop backup quarterbacks. They could be needed. But we should make no mistake, top 10 quarterbacks and playoff winning quarterbacks are found in the first round.
=====================
THE WORST SCENARIO
is NOT using 3 first rounders and failing to find a franchise quarterback. The WORST scenario is to pick the BPA for the next 5 years, and wonder why our team cannot win playoff games, even with its top 5 defense and a good set of offensive wreapons.

 

[50-yard-line]

Lawrence - definitely the board before we pick!
Wilson - probably off the board by the time we pick.
fields - aka Dwayne haskins part 2. He is an ABU prospect (anybody but us)!
Lance - total boom or bust player. Doubtful he falls to us.
Jones - primarily a one read qb. Perfect for San Fran.
mills - if the medicals are good, he fits best with us. Needs development work.
mond - he fits with us but needs a lot of development work,
Trask - from the neck up, he is better than Lawrence. But his lack of arm strength limits his ability to fit balls in tight windows.
Bueshele - short and lacks arm strength.

Your read on Trask is exactly the opposite of the draft profiles I'm reading. He's got the arm, but the head is missing.