Content Post Idle thoughts: The "and this is why you DON'T play not to lose" edition

[Nunchucks]

That doesn’t mean going for it wouldn’t have had the same result.

Yes, but at least it would have been trying to win. We already knew they would lose once they punted....everybody knew.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Just want to say that anyone talking about bad drafting in years 2014, 15, 16, 17 as a reason for the current team really shouldn't be taken seriously.

All of those missed "hits" would be on second deals now, costing as much as the FAs we brought in if they were any good.

Pittsburgh hit on a 2017 draftee big time in TJ Watt. They just paid him $110million and $80 guaranteed - mor than a 1/3rd of the guaranteed the pats laid out for Mills, Judon, Henry, Smith, Bourne, Agholor, Godchaux, Wise, Guy, Anderson, Karras, Andrews COMBINED, for 4 years of service (and massive money lost any time he's hurt), whereas the Pats got more than 40 years of service expected from their FAs.

The point is: even hitting on drafts affects the first four years, or less, of team cap management. Those years aren't why they were hollowed out.

I get your point and agree to a very small extent but those 4 years you're talking about are enormous considering the NFL is 2-3 year league.

Most teams are riding small waves for a few years and retooling, rebuilding etc When you hit on a draft you have maximize the talent and value in the moment.

Plus you want those second contracts especially from early picks. It means you're hitting on talent and fit. Usually means that guy has "bought in" off the field as well.

Draft discussion is incredibly tough. Most are focused on very few, 5-10 prospects. Don't have the best handle on them to begin with and probably watching highlights 2 months before the draft. Lots of hindsight. It's very tough to have an honest discussion or debate over it.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, but at least it would have been trying to win. We already knew they would lose once they punted....everybody knew.

Just like we knew Miami would lose when they turned it over on downs at the own 46.

 

[50-yard-line]

I get your point and agree to a very small extent but those 4 years you're talking about are enormous considering the NFL is 2-3 year league.

Most teams are riding small waves for a few years and retooling, rebuilding etc When you hit on a draft you have maximize the talent and value in the moment.

Plus you want those second contracts especially from early picks. It means you're hitting on talent and fit. Usually means that guy has "bought in" off the field as well.

Draft discussion is incredibly tough. Most are focused on very few, 5-10 prospects. Don't have the best handle on them to begin with and probably watching highlights 2 months before the draft. Lots of hindsight. It's very tough to have an honest discussion or debate over it.

Sure.

I haven't given up on Wynn.
I find the idea of Michel being a "bust" laughable.
Bentley might be our best LB right now.

Harry looks like a complete bust.
Winovich has flashed.
Damian Harris is a very good pick.
Bailey has contributed greatly.
Cowart is still quietly okay for his pick.
And I haven't given up on Cajuste, who's flashed, finally (but they knew he was gone the first year when they drafted him - it's the only reason they got near him) with one VERY noticeable exception.

Dugger
Uche
Onwenu
Herron have all contributed and look like there might be a couple of keepers there.
I like Asiasi, but we'll see if he can get on the field - still glad he's #3.
Don't know about Jennings yet, or Keene, but confidence is not high.

Mac Jones is a hit, I think.
Barmore is a hit, I'm pretty sure.
Stevenson is a hit, I think.
Don't know about Perkins.
No idea about McGrone (you liked him a lot, I believe), Sherman, Bledsoe, or Nixon yet.

And UDFAs:
2018 Jackson
2019 Gunner, Meyers, Jakob Johnson
2020 Book remains out on JJ Taylor (like him a lot), and Bryant,
2021 We'll see on Nordin.

Compare that to the home-grown elsewhere and take out any top-20 picks (including Mac, sure) and is it really that terrible? Particularly when you consider things like flipping a 2nd for Sanu in desperation trying to squeeze out a last Brady run. I just find this meme to be particularly galling, given the juggling they did to keep Veteran players on the field, filling gaps (with traded picks, often) in order to stay on top. Some teams stay on top with outrageous contracts or void years that lead to a deep hole.

I don't see that here. The Pats are trying to build a sustainable competitive team. Maybe it won't work without Brady, i admit. Maybe it's going to be NBA-like boom and utter bust (as I expect with Tampa in about 2 years...).

But again, for all that homegrown talent, Dallas was 6-10 last year, worse than Cam's Patriots. Yep, they lost their QB and replaced him with a decent 10-year vet, who by any means should be superior to any rookie QB.

The Harry pick was especially terrible, particularly since this team wants nothing to do with jump balls, and that's really his game coming out. Michel was picked for what they needed right away (pass protecting bell cow) and he gave them that. Wynn's injuries and whatever the heck is going on so far this year is particularly disappointing.

So yeah, I'm not thrilled with their drafting in the higher rounds, until this year, but as I said, anything before 2018 is irrelevant to their current roster.

 

[Biffins]

What in the AF is that supposed to mean?

Makes absolutely no sense. And by answering this in "detail" he made it worse. At least before there was some mystery about it. The BB "genius" mystery. That he knew something we didn't. Now it's just garbage.

 

[RIpats88]

He is saying that if you fail on a 4th down at your own 46 you are dead.
How hard is that to understand. Did you not watch Miami lose because they did exactly that?

Look at the situation. The team on there other side of the ball hasn't been stopped. Your defense is gassed. All they need is a field goal to win.

As soon as we punted I knew the game was over.

 

[Ring 6]

Look at the situation. The team on there other side of the ball hasn't been stopped. Your defense is gassed. All they need is a field goal to win.

As soon as we punted I knew the game was over.

You don’t turn the ball over on downs at your own 46 in ot.

 

[jimnance]

I have rarely criticized BB. Only once in 21 years. How can you criticize the goat? Ive been the same way with Brady.
But please tell me why,WHY?? when you are facing one of the best passing offenses in the nfl- when you are going to need XTRA dbs- do you choose to dress a spare lb over either williams or bryant. Yeah neither one is a stud but we needed NUMBERS at db for this game. Even DMac,who I have NEVER heard criticize his hc, lamented not having enough dbs in this game. JJones,Bethel and Phillips were all sidelined at times due to injuries in this game and you could see how gassed the dbs were at the end. Theres no excuse for that 3rd and 25 fiasco, when the Pats dropped either 6 or 7 in coverage. Having a cb instead of a lb as one of those covering coulda made a difference. Having had an extra db in the game wouldve absolutely made a difference in how gassed the Pats cbs were on that play. Thats on BB. And for the 1st time I can EVER recall,Bill saying in his post game presser that he thought they had " good coverage" on that play is BS. I dont want anyone else coaching this team. Hes still the best in the business.
But he made some fatal mistskes in this game. Pats mightve lost anyway, but we'll never know.

 

[Biffins]

But he isn't making a lot of the rookie mistakes. The guy didn't even throw an incompletion until midway through the third quarter. Again yesterday, we saw Jones stand in the pocket and complete passes for first downs as he was getting hit. He wasn't getting rattled. He wasn't scrambling out of the pocket making wild throws.

You want to see QBs making rookie mistakes, watch the Jets, 49ers, or Bears. These QB are still taking off the second they see pressure and hucking the ball into double coverage rather than dumping off the ball.

Jones has flaws and is not an upper tier QB by any stretch of the imagination, but he isn't playing like a rookie QB either. He isn't making the rookie mistakes we are seeing with the rest of the QB class. He is playing like a QB with several years of experience under his belt. He does make some rookie mistakes, but they aren't the costly ones that you would need to protect a QB from himself.

Fair to say he's not being given the opportunity to make rookie mistakes. Hard to make a rookie mistake when you kneel down instead of running a 2 minute drill under pressure.

Call it good coaching to build his confidence. But definitely doesn't win games near term. I am not even sure it helps the kid long-term.

 

[Biffins]

BB said as much today. They didnt have too many plays left out of that set.

What??!?!? We don't have more than a handful of plays with 2 TE sets?!?!?! Did BB just say that?

Then why did we load up on huge contracts for 2 TEs this offseason?!? Can someone explain?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Sure.

I haven't given up on Wynn.
I find the idea of Michel being a "bust" laughable.
Bentley might be our best LB right now.

Harry looks like a complete bust.
Winovich has flashed.
Damian Harris is a very good pick.
Bailey has contributed greatly.
Cowart is still quietly okay for his pick.
And I haven't given up on Cajuste, who's flashed, finally (but they knew he was gone the first year when they drafted him - it's the only reason they got near him) with one VERY noticeable exception.

Dugger
Uche
Onwenu
Herron have all contributed and look like there might be a couple of keepers there.
I like Asiasi, but we'll see if he can get on the field - still glad he's #3.
Don't know about Jennings yet, or Keene, but confidence is not high.

Mac Jones is a hit, I think.
Barmore is a hit, I'm pretty sure.
Stevenson is a hit, I think.
Don't know about Perkins.
No idea about McGrone (you liked him a lot, I believe), Sherman, Bledsoe, or Nixon yet.

And UDFAs:
2018 Jackson
2019 Gunner, Meyers, Jakob Johnson
2020 Book remains out on JJ Taylor (like him a lot), and Bryant,
2021 We'll see on Nordin.

Compare that to the home-grown elsewhere and take out any top-20 picks (including Mac, sure) and is it really that terrible? Particularly when you consider things like flipping a 2nd for Sanu in desperation trying to squeeze out a last Brady run. I just find this meme to be particularly galling, given the juggling they did to keep Veteran players on the field, filling gaps (with traded picks, often) in order to stay on top. Some teams stay on top with outrageous contracts or void years that lead to a deep hole.

I don't see that here. The Pats are trying to build a sustainable competitive team. Maybe it won't work without Brady, i admit. Maybe it's going to be NBA-like boom and utter bust (as I expect with Tampa in about 2 years...).

But again, for all that homegrown talent, Dallas was 6-10 last year, worse than Cam's Patriots. Yep, they lost their QB and replaced him with a decent 10-year vet, who by any means should be superior to any rookie QB.

The Harry pick was especially terrible, particularly since this team wants nothing to do with jump balls, and that's really his game coming out. Michel was picked for what they needed right away (pass protecting bell cow) and he gave them that. Wynn's injuries and whatever the heck is going on so far this year is particularly disappointing.

So yeah, I'm not thrilled with their drafting in the higher rounds, until this year, but as I said, anything before 2018 is irrelevant to their current roster.

UDFA are saving this team but they have to get rid of anyone from john carroll associated with the high draft picks from 2013-2019.

.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

What??!?!? We don't have more than a handful of plays with 2 TE sets?!?!?! Did BB just say that?

Then why did we load up on huge contracts for 2 TEs this offseason?!? Can someone explain?

It's very simple. We spent $100M on 2 expensive tight ends but we have an oc who only knows how to call spread shotgun. Thinks Jonnu is a fullback. So, we play both TEs together for only the first 10 snaps because that's what BB sees in the pregame scripted plays, then the rest of the game we go 1 TE, spread shotgun, the only thing this oc knows, where we go 3-and-out for 2 straight quarters and leave our defense high and dry.

.

 

[long distance]

Plus you want those second contracts especially from early picks. It means you're hitting on talent and fit. Usually means that guy has "bought in" off the field as well.

but as I said, anything before 2018 is irrelevant to their current roster

Despite being a “2 year league“ everything happening beforehand building a roster is relevant to the current roster to some extent.

Like BGC said, there are many benefits beyond cheap years to team building hitting on a draft pick
- adding to his point regarding certainty/experience/fit in the system and “home core“ value its also providing continuity, team chemistry etc. There is a reason why big spenders in FA are not successful the same year but more in following years. New FAs need time to adjust, homegrown signings not only dont need that but act like glue to incorporate new pieces. Even Gilmore needed quite some time to adjust and feel comfortable & the whole secondary with him.
- and it is relevant to cap situation as well since you can sign big longer deals sooner with homegrown players and create lower yearly cap hits, better cap flexibility etc
- or you can improve your future Draft capital significantly by trading homegrown draft hit

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Despite being a “2 year league“ everything happening beforehand building a roster is relevant to the current roster to some extent.

Like BGC said, there are many benefits beyond cheap years to team building hitting on a draft pick
- adding to his point regarding certainty/experience/fit in the system and “home core“ value its also providing continuity, team chemistry etc. There is a reason why big spenders in FA are not successful the same year but more in following years. New FAs need time to adjust, homegrown signings not only dont need that but act like glue to incorporate new pieces. Even Gilmore needed quite some time to adjust and feel comfortable & the whole secondary with him.
- and it is relevant to cap situation as well since you can sign big longer deals sooner with homegrown players and create lower yearly cap hits, better cap flexibility etc
- or you can improve your future Draft capital significantly by trading homegrown draft hit

Plus wouldn't you just want good players on your team?? Like I get paying them and losing the cheat code of a rookie contract but you'd still rather have and pay good players than not having them? Idk maybe I'm dumb but I'm ok with paying good players that are good enough to earn a second contract and buy in in what it means to play here.

 

[50-yard-line]

Plus wouldn't you just want good players on your team?? Like I get paying them and losing the cheat code of a rookie contract but you'd still rather have and pay good players than not having them? Idk maybe I'm dumb but I'm ok with paying good players that are good enough to earn a second contract and buy in in what it means to play here.

Of course. But look at the trades they made to bring in vets, and of course, the stolen year.

They haven't drafted very well. I get it. Of course you'd like it better, but most of the wash at that draft is behind them at this point.

 

[patfanken]

All due respect Ken, I think Jones has decent to good escapability for a pure pocket passing for a rookie. He isn't ever going to be Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray in that area. He just isn't that mobile. His escapability is going be done inside the pocket, not outside. He needs to step up and avoid pressure like Brady or Marino before him. He is going avoid pressure inside the pocket not scrambling outside.

So far he has been very good at times knowing when to step up a few steps to avoid the rush. He seems to have the ability to sense pressure and either step up to avoid the rush or get rid of the ball quickly. In several games so far, there has been a lot of cases where the pocket collapsed around him where stepping or scrambling outside the pocket wouldn't do anything. But I think he showed he could definitely become a QB who is high escapability within the pocket ala Brady.

Sure Jones is more mobile than Brady, but he is not a mobile QB. I think trying to make him into a QB who rolls out of the pocket to avoid the rush may be counter productive. It doesn't play to his strengths. I think it is better for him to work on his mobility within the pocket which plays to his strengths.

I think you missed my point completely. He absolutely CAN be as elusive as Prescott. He has the same speed and is even a bit better in his short area quickness. He just hasn't needed to develop that skill or instinct at Alabama. So I understand WHY we haven't seen it from him so far, but I fully expect to see him develop it more over the next few years. Mu point was it doesn't happen overnight.

And no, there was no escaping that first sack. It was ugly.

 

[PScottman]

And no, there was no escaping that first sack. It was ugly.

One of the worst I've seen against the Pats and I saw Bledsoe and Eason take some pretty bad hits.

 

[Nunchucks]

Just like we knew Miami would lose when they turned it over on downs at the own 46.

Bad teams go for it because they know it is their only chance to win. Guess what category the patriots fall into.

 

[Ring 6]

Bad teams go for it because they know it is their only chance to win. Guess what category the patriots fall into.

By your logic if they went for 4th downs, they would be 4-2 with wins over 2 SB contenders, and an uncharacteristic fumble away from 5-1 and therefore a good team who shouldn’t have to go for it because they are a good team.

 

[Ring 6]

What??!?!? We don't have more than a handful of plays with 2 TE sets?!?!?! Did BB just say that?

Then why did we load up on huge contracts for 2 TEs this offseason?!? Can someone explain?

No that’s not what he said.