How valuable is Seymour?

[arrellbee]

Pony Express - I'd like to see the same workup done comparing against DEs along with the other outside DL in a 3-4.

What stat source did you use, so when I look at this comparison, it would reflect the same source ??

Thanks for a VERY interesting stat workup.

 

[PonyExpress]

Pony Express - I'd like to see the same workup done comparing against DEs along with the other outside DL in a 3-4.

What stat source did you use, so when I look at this comparison, it would reflect the same source ??

Thanks for a VERY interesting stat workup.

Arrellbee,
My stat source was espn.com. I plan to do a workup for Defensive Ends next, which will include 3-4 OLBs. I view the 3-4 in simplified terms as a 4-3 with a nose tackle and additional coverage responsibilities for the DEs (aka OLBs). I would like to consider CBs, LBs and Safeties eventually, and hopefully I will be able to whip one up a week. I think these studies, if too much isn’t read into them, can help separate fact from fiction.

 

[arrellbee]

Arrellbee,
My stat source was espn.com. I plan to do a workup for Defensive Ends next, which will include 3-4 OLBs. I view the 3-4 in simplified terms as a 4-3 with a nose tackle and additional coverage responsibilities for the DEs (aka OLBs). I would like to consider CBs, LBs and Safeties eventually, and hopefully I will be able to whip one up a week. I think these studies, if too much isn’t read into them, can help separate fact from fiction.

Thanks much !!

 

[jczxohn1]

Imaginary conversation over several months

BB: "Hey, RS, play fullback for us."

RS: "Sure, BB, anything for the team."

Months later, BB: "RS, you are injury-prone."

Fill in RS's response.

Regardless of how Sey has been injured, the fact remains he has been injured twice in the last two years in the same knee. IMO, in signing him to a 4+ yr contract one must assume he will miss playing one of those years. He is one more cut block away from an ACL tear. And, he will be a target in the role of tying up two blockers.
That said, PonyExpress' analysis is very good for most situations, (check it out on the Draft Board Forum), but doesn't factor in stat adjustments for players who miss multiple games. Also, it doesn't really account for the Seymour phenomena, where he dominates an opponent so much but doesn't actually make the play. Rosie's improvement from the middle of the season on the run made teams account for him on the same side and thus, Sey's stats improved. Ty graded very high, IMO, teams were running and screening more to that side due to Wilie's decreased ability to set the edge. IE, the Denver game.

 

[PonyExpress]

Regardless of how Sey has been injured, the fact remains he has been injured twice in the last two years in the same knee. IMO, in signing him to a 4+ yr contract one must assume he will miss playing one of those years. He is one more cut block away from an ACL tear. And, he will be a target in the role of tying up two blockers.
That said, PonyExpress' analysis is very good for most situations, (check it out on the Draft Board Forum), but doesn't factor in stat adjustments for players who miss multiple games. Also, it doesn't really account for the Seymour phenomena, where he dominates an opponent so much but doesn't actually make the play. Rosie's improvement from the middle of the season on the run made teams account for him on the same side and thus, Sey's stats improved. Ty graded very high, IMO, teams were running and screening more to that side due to Wilie's decreased ability to set the edge. IE, the Denver game.

My purpose wasn’t to find out who the most talented players are, but who the most productive are. If I were trying to find out who the most talented players are, I would do a “value vs. average replacement†analysis, or I might prorate statistics over the games Seymour missed to determine what he would have compiled had he not been injured. The reality is that a front office should not pay for talent, but for production, and durability is a reality that can’t be ignored. Durability in football is itself a kind of talent. The ability for a trench warrior to stay on the field over 32 games in the NFL can be an inherent athletic quality that some are blessed with and some aren’t. You could say that over the long haul of a 4 year NFL contract, production and durability = talent.
As for the intangibles that Seymour brings to the defense, there is no doubt. But we can’t ignore the fact that there are other DTs with similar intangible qualities. Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville allowed Mike Peterson to have a borderline All-Pro year playing behind them at LB, and the JCK DEs to accumulate more sacks than they otherwise would have playing alongside a Ryan Sims of KC, for example. We know that Urlacher had his best year before ’05 when he played behind Washington and Traylor. We know that the play of Fletcher and Spikes was elevated playing behind Adams and Pat Williams. All of these elite DTs have tangibles and intangibles that improve the play of their teams around them, which is the nature of the DT position. For instance, one could say that Seymour’s best year, ’03, came partly as a result of playing next to Ted Washington.
One could argue that Seymour is constrained by the 3-4 system from making plays that would show up as statistics, because his role is essentially as a blocker on the defensive side of the ball for playmaking LBers. This is true, but it should be pointed out that several 3-4 DEs still made plays at a comparable level, among them Aaron Smith of Pittsburgh, whom you may recall BB spoke glowingly about on Super Bowl Sunday during his interview.

 

[Pats726]

How many DL can play as a 3-4 end one play, as a tackle in a 4-3 scheme, as a end in a 4-3 scheme??

Put John Henderson in the Patriots' scheme. Will the Pats be able to present as many different looks to the opposing offenses??

How many of the aforementioned will be young as Seymour when the season starts?

The most important stat in the NFL is wins. What DL has played in more wins over the 5 past years than Seymour?? What DL has played in more playoff wins than Seymour???

Miguel...Good points... I agree that there are many intangibles in Sey's game..that other DEs might not bring to the table...but my question is given how it is obvious that his first agent DID NOT help him with a "good" contract..and the no extension till August situation as well as any other animosity left over from last year..is it possible that a contract CAN be worked out?? Might Sey wish for way more, sort of as an overreaction as to what happened before? Certainly the numbers are there for quite a fair one and the Patriots CAN if they wish do that and be OK cap wise, but I just wonder if it can be done. I have doubts..a gut feeling..hopefully way wrong and offbase.

 

[jczxohn1]

My purpose wasn’t to find out who the most talented players are, but who the most productive are. If I were trying to find out who the most talented players are, I would do a “value vs. average replacement†analysis, or I might prorate statistics over the games Seymour missed to determine what he would have compiled had he not been injured.

Not knocking your analysis, just trying to point out the problem with statistical analysis in general. For instance, Seymour came back last year in the middle of the season and many point out what a difference he made in the team's performance. Overlooked are the other changes that happened with the team during that 3 wk period. Hobbs replaced Starks, Rosie got his run D game together, Wilfork adjusted his position in relation to the center, Hawkins came on board, Vrabel moved to ILB. Likewise, when he was out during the playoffs in '04, Green filled in admirably.


The reality is that a front office should not pay for talent, but for production, and durability is a reality that can’t be ignored. Durability in football is itself a kind of talent. The ability for a trench warrior to stay on the field over 32 games in the NFL can be an inherent athletic quality that some are blessed with and some aren’t. You could say that over the long haul of a 4 year NFL contract, production and durability = talent.
As for the intangibles that Seymour brings to the defense, there is no doubt. But we can’t ignore the fact that there are other DTs with similar intangible qualities. Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville allowed Mike Peterson to have a borderline All-Pro year playing behind them at LB, and the JCK DEs to accumulate more sacks than they otherwise would have playing alongside a Ryan Sims of KC, for example. We know that Urlacher had his best year before ’05 when he played behind Washington and Traylor. We know that the play of Fletcher and Spikes was elevated playing behind Adams and Pat Williams. All of these elite DTs have tangibles and intangibles that improve the play of their teams around them, which is the nature of the DT position. For instance, one could say that Seymour’s best year, ’03, came partly as a result of playing next to Ted Washington.
One could argue that Seymour is constrained by the 3-4 system from making plays that would show up as statistics, because his role is essentially as a blocker on the defensive side of the ball for playmaking LBers. This is true, but it should be pointed out that several 3-4 DEs still made plays at a comparable level, among them Aaron Smith of Pittsburgh, whom you may recall BB spoke glowingly about on Super Bowl Sunday during his interview.

Agree with all of this and FWIW, your work is among the most valuable I've seen on this board lately. Signing Seymour is a true Gordian Knot.

 

[PatsWorldChamps]

My purpose wasn’t to find out who the most talented players are, but who the most productive are. If I were trying to find out who the most talented players are, I would do a “value vs. average replacement†analysis, or I might prorate statistics over the games Seymour missed to determine what he would have compiled had he not been injured. The reality is that a front office should not pay for talent, but for production, and durability is a reality that can’t be ignored. Durability in football is itself a kind of talent. The ability for a trench warrior to stay on the field over 32 games in the NFL can be an inherent athletic quality that some are blessed with and some aren’t. You could say that over the long haul of a 4 year NFL contract, production and durability = talent.
As for the intangibles that Seymour brings to the defense, there is no doubt. But we can’t ignore the fact that there are other DTs with similar intangible qualities. Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville allowed Mike Peterson to have a borderline All-Pro year playing behind them at LB, and the JCK DEs to accumulate more sacks than they otherwise would have playing alongside a Ryan Sims of KC, for example. We know that Urlacher had his best year before ’05 when he played behind Washington and Traylor. We know that the play of Fletcher and Spikes was elevated playing behind Adams and Pat Williams. All of these elite DTs have tangibles and intangibles that improve the play of their teams around them, which is the nature of the DT position. For instance, one could say that Seymour’s best year, ’03, came partly as a result of playing next to Ted Washington.
One could argue that Seymour is constrained by the 3-4 system from making plays that would show up as statistics, because his role is essentially as a blocker on the defensive side of the ball for playmaking LBers. This is true, but it should be pointed out that several 3-4 DEs still made plays at a comparable level, among them Aaron Smith of Pittsburgh, whom you may recall BB spoke glowingly about on Super Bowl Sunday during his interview.

how do you account for triple-teams? believe me, every coach in the nfl has him in the top 2

 

[PatsWorldChamps]

Miguel...Good points... I agree that there are many intangibles in Sey's game..that other DEs might not bring to the table...but my question is given how it is obvious that his first agent DID NOT help him with a "good" contract..and the no extension till August situation as well as any other animosity left over from last year..is it possible that a contract CAN be worked out?? Might Sey wish for way more, sort of as an overreaction as to what happened before? Certainly the numbers are there for quite a fair one and the Patriots CAN if they wish do that and be OK cap wise, but I just wonder if it can be done. I have doubts..a gut feeling..hopefully way wrong and offbase.

the pats have the most cap room in the nfl... they will sign a long term deal, or franchise him for 2 years and leave all the risk of injury on him

 

[fgssand]

the pats have the most cap room in the nfl... they will sign a long term deal, or franchise him for 2 years and leave all the risk of injury on him

I am OK with either scenario...I just do not want to lose this guy. For those that are afraid to pay him because he MIGHT get injured are chasing fear. Why pay Brady, he may also get injured as well.....when you have the best there is, you need to keep that talent plating for your team, period.

RS has never said he will be unreasonable, all he asks for is a fair deal - he deserves it.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

VERY disappointing answer there Box O - I look at you as one of the top 10 "Patsfaners" and was surprised to read you even think of comparing an older kicker (very much overpaid) and an aging awesome Linebacker (again, way overpaid and evidently had already made his exit plan middle of last season) to argue ably the best DL in football today. RS is young, entering the very prime of his career and an absolute force. Please go study what happens to our defense and the players around him when he is in. Please check out the opinions of every single player, coach and NFL expert about his stellar play and you will find no disagreement anywhere that Richard Seymour is one of if not the best defensive lineman in the NFL.

We have the cap dollars, RS has always said he is not looking to break the bank, just looking to receive his worth based on his value to this team. Richard Seymour is player #2 , right after Tom Brady. With him, our defense remains dominant and superbowl caliber, without him, we struggle.

There should be no argument here - sign Richard Seymour PLEASE.

I beg your pardon, would you be so kind as to re-read my "alleged" comparison of Seymour to either Willie or AV. It could be argued that your response proves the point of my remarks - the emotions swirling around all three players are comparable. If Willie and AV each have measurable value to this team, and to their current teams, then how is that different for Seymour? Saying his value is higher than their's does not justify saying he must be retained 'at any cost.'

You make the statement that with Seymour the "defense remains dominant and superbowl caliber," and "without him," it "struggles." That same defense struggled through two-thirds of the 2005 season with and without Seymour. I leave you to consider whether I made any effort in the past year, to make my assessments with any objectivity and any effort at research.

 

[PWRxWLF]

I am OK with either scenario...I just do not want to lose this guy. For those that are afraid to pay him because he MIGHT get injured are chasing fear. Why pay Brady, he may also get injured as well.....when you have the best there is, you need to keep that talent plating for your team, period.

RS has never said he will be unreasonable, all he asks for is a fair deal - he deserves it.

You forget one simple thing. Brady hasn't been injury prone. That's whi it is okay to lock him up. Seymour however, has been injury prone.

 

[DarrylS]

A very intelligent thread, even the term Gordian Knot thrown in(which I had to google), but I stick by my guns that he should be paid up there with the best despite his injury problems. Our salary structure for this team support this move and his value is immense. This is anecdotal, but during the first Jax game a couple of years ago, when he was benched for the 1st quarter after coming back late from a funeral..he played like no other player I have seen in my life..the following sequence of three plays he sacked Leftwich on 2 of the three downs and hurried him on the other play. I have never seen anything like that in all my time watching professional football, he has the capability to play inside and outside, stuff the run and hurry the passer. He may not statistically be the best, but in my view he is #1 and should be paid such.

 

[fgssand]

I beg your pardon, would you be so kind as to re-read my "alleged" comparison of Seymour to either Willie or AV. It could be argued that your response proves the point of my remarks - the emotions swirling around all three players are comparable. If Willie and AV each have measurable value to this team, and to their current teams, then how is that different for Seymour? Saying his value is higher than their's does not justify saying he must be retained 'at any cost.'

You make the statement that with Seymour the "defense remains dominant and superbowl caliber," and "without him," it "struggles." That same defense struggled through two-thirds of the 2005 season with and without Seymour. I leave you to consider whether I made any effort in the past year, to make my assessments with any objectivity and any effort at research.

I do feel that because of the fact his value to this team is higher than than all others (except of course Brady), he does need to be retained (not at any cost, but at reasonable cost), versus an aging awesome vet and a kicker. Emotionally I loved WIllie and his play, but the line "is better to lose him one year early rather than one year late" appears to apply here. As for AV - it's a puzzle none of us will ever totally figure out, but after all is said and done - he is a kicker.

I stand by my statement that Seymour's value to this team is so high that he does transform the "D" into being Superbowl caliber and they will struggle without him. I also choose to believe RS when he says he is not out to break the bank, but rather, seeks only a fair deal. That being the case, for the good of the team and it's sucess, RS needs to stay here. My only issue with what your response was your evidently feeling his value is nowhere near where near as high as I feel.

 

[Pats726]

RS has never said he will be unreasonable, all he asks for is a fair deal - he deserves it.

I hope that IS the case...I am just owndering about what happeend in the past with his agent and if he might over react making it unreasonable. I hope they CAN get it done..I just worry that there are other factors that will prevent it. Believe me, I do want to have RS here, but if they can't get it done now..what does a team do??

 

[fgssand]

I hope that IS the case...I am just owndering about what happeend in the past with his agent and if he might over react making it unreasonable. I hope they CAN get it done..I just worry that there are other factors that will prevent it. Believe me, I do want to have RS here, but if they can't get it done now..what does a team do??

I share your concern about the "other factors", should they present themselves and if suddenly, RS demands become unreasonable, I will change my tune.

Either way, he is under contract this year and will play for us or nobody and we franchise him next year and maybe even the year after that if need be.

There is enough win-win here for all sides that I think this deal gets done and we all smile.

 

[ilduce06410]

afford, yes. willing?

It says here that the Pats can afford to make Seymour the highest paid defensive lineman in the game AND still be able to afford 3 3 million players.

richard seymour has significant intangibles, nobody questions that. it begins with teams' hesitations about running his way. IMHO the young man can be a great player, as opposed to "just" an outstanding one (eg, warren sapp). to me's he's as significant to patriots as tom brady is on offense. they are both doing things that are HOF-type performances. if they are able to keep it up for 5 more years they might get into that ballpark. you just DON'T l let great players go, in any sport. remember carlton fisk coming back 7-8 times a season and just waxing our ***es?
the willie ray and AV situations, where the value of those aging players over a 3-4 year term, was arguable. with seymour that is not much of an issue.
the young man has knee problems because he's getting cut in most every game. i guess if the position coaches think they can get away with it, they have the OLs take some shots. the OG has a pretty good shot at him when pats are in the 3-4. i see several occasions each game where seymour is in the middle of some pushing and shoving after the play. ive suspected that's what it's about. in the nfl of even 15 years ago things like that were enforced on the field, not by the refs. i keep wondering why seymour's teammates (especially wilfork and the RILB) aren't protecting him better. it's a real mystery to me.

 

[Pats726]

There is enough win-win here for all sides that I think this deal gets done and we all smile.

I hope so..there IS plenty of space and room for a win-win situation..so let us hope it gets done and the 4th Lombardi is here in Feb 07.

 

[ilduce06410]

no brady injuries--yet (knock on wood)

You forget one simple thing. Brady hasn't been injury prone. That's whi it is okay to lock him up. Seymour however, has been injury prone.

when i think of the hits brady took last season, he's a very durable QB. but 60 more hard hits this season?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I do feel that because of the fact his value to this team is higher than than all others (except of course Brady), he does need to be retained (not at any cost, but at reasonable cost), versus an aging awesome vet and a kicker. Emotionally I loved WIllie and his play, but the line "is better to lose him one year early rather than one year late" appears to apply here. As for AV - it's a puzzle none of us will ever totally figure out, but after all is said and done - he is a kicker.

I stand by my statement that Seymour's value to this team is so high that he does transform the "D" into being Superbowl caliber and they will struggle without him. I also choose to believe RS when he says he is not out to break the bank, but rather, seeks only a fair deal. That being the case, for the good of the team and it's sucess, RS needs to stay here. My only issue with what your response was your evidently feeling his value is nowhere near where near as high as I feel.

You are making a value judgement based on perception. Like some others in this thread BB will not. He will take what ponyexpress attempted to do with statistics and what Box has gleaned from watching hours of mere broadcast replay and the test he puts Richard's value to will pale in comparison.

All players are subject to some level of dispassionate scrutiny every off season. Those with pending substantial contract issues that will dramatically impact the team merit the deepest analysis. In Patriot Reign it is clear that while everyone presumed Lawyer was a vital player for this teams continued success, BB challenged his staff to prove it. And much to their chagrin they could not. Coupled with his clubhouse influence and his stance on how players including himself should be concerned with their league wide perception as individual players going forward, which BB considered negative leadership, it was enough for BB to make the decision to find an alternative to his pro bowl SS.

And to discount durability in this league is real folly. BB understands that talent is admirable but it is worth nothing unless it both fits in the scheme (and in the case of a team leader that scheme extends off the field and includes working within a certain salary structure he and Pioli have developed - as Brady was willing to) and it can stay on the field. One of the things he admired about Ty Law (and his only real leadership trait) was the example he set with his determination to play hurt and ability to still play at a high level. That was what enabled BB to ignore much of Ty's financial ranting.

I know Richard has not publicly thrown down the gauntlet in so many words, but he has made it clear in a roundabout way that he wants to be paid as the best DL in the league if that is what he is perceived as throughout the league. BB will determine his value to this team based on unemotional performance based reality. If the perceptoin and reality match up, that may result in a deal. But even if they do, other valid concerns like durability and leadership on and off the field and the salary structure of the entire team will have to be weighted into any formula on which they base their best offer.

Players don't tend to view demands to pay them what they believe they are worth as breaking the bank. But the fact remains that on a team that somewhat uniquely champions the value of all 53 players to the effort, if we were paying them all what they honestly believe they are worth we'd be substantially over even an expanded cap. BB has worked hard to eliminate a culture of financial (as well as other) entitlement that existed here for many years. He's not about to let one players determination to buck that trend toss the entire teamwide philosophy out the window. It was that same type and level of determination post our first SB win that led to Lawyer's eventual unceremonious and briefly traumatic departure.

I hope they get a deal done that the team as well as Richard can live with. But if not, it's not the end of the world. Losing him won't necessarily result in Jarvis Green's ascention because Richard is an asset with marketable trade value. That pick or picks and the salary you don't have to pay him would allow the team to replace him with an upgrade over Green and perhaps further mediate any loss of production by upgrading at additional positions going forward and retaining other emerging talent as their current deals play out.