From a Chiefs Fan Perspective

[luuked]

They were a near miracle throw away from going to OT in Chicago. The final score in Pittsburgh flattered the Pats. That game shouldn't of been as close as it was.

Love it. They were never in danger in Chicago but you call it "a miracle throw away" but then within the same paragraph claim that the Steelers loss was flattering even though we were one Brady redzone brainfart away from drawing that game.

Objectivity goes out of the window when it comes to silly narratives.

 

[luuked]

Offense scored enough points to win. Defense let up way too many points to a terrible offense.

The defense played a better overall game than the offense and has been on fire since halftime @Miami. But whatever..

 

[RobertWeathers]

So just thought I'd drop in a give a balanced view from our end about the game and love to hear your thoughts.

1) Things that we have going against us in this game first and foremost is experience. The Pats have been to the AFC Championship game every year since Mahomes has been a sophomore in H.S. so that has to count for something with the players and the pressure they feel. The Chiefs have only been there once in the last 25 years and lost to the bills. So experience has to go to the Pats without question.

2) You have the GOAT and he is looking really good, the dismantling of the Chargers was a huge eye opener because many have said they have the most talent of any team in the AFC. Plus you have the best coach in the NFL.

3) overall just a really good well rounded team, good RB, WR, defense, special teams etc.

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The Chiefs biggest factors that favor them in the game are.

1) Defense, yes their defense at home plays completely different than there defense on the road. An example is here are the point totals they have given up at home this year. 27, 14, 23, 10, 14, 24, 29, 3, 13 and we average 35.1 points per game so even though the numbers may not pop out, they are much better than our road defense. We have the top unit for sacks ( not that it may matter much with how quickly Brady gets rid of the ball) but the biggest difference is our DB's are all different from our first game and they are much better than what we trotted out at safety and CB against you earlier in the year.

2) Our Offense in general, we thought after Hunt was released that it would hurt the team and while it took a couple of weeks to get it figured out it seems that Williams is running and catching the ball every bit as good as Hunt did this year. We have Sammy Watkins back so we have 4 legit play makers besides Mahomes.

3) Mahomes - I keep waiting for the wheels to come off this year for him but they never do. We haven't had one game this year where we were blown out or not looking like we have a chance, the most we have lost by was 7 but most were 3 or less. He is the best QB our team has ever had and its not even close.
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Conclusion: I think home field will matter a lot, if we were playing at your place I'd give us a 10-15% chance to win, but playing at Arrowhead I'd say its a coin flip. I think its a game that you will be able to tell by halftime what's going to happen. If Brady's on then its going to be a tough game, if he gets rattled then I think it helps us sneak out a win. I think it will be a 35-31 game either way, not sure who will win but even with the cold they are both going into the 30's.

Good post.

If you follow me at Chiefs Planet, I'm arguing HFA is incredibly overrated. If it was such an X factor, you would have beat TN, Pitt and BAL at home in the playoffs.

You win on the road when you play well. You lose when you don't.

 

[Kontradiction]

The defense played a better overall game than the offense and has been on fire since halftime @Miami. But whatever..

Uhhhhh...

Offense scored 33 points and out-possessed Miami by 10 minutes. Defense allowed 34 points (including the last score), 412 yards of total offense, and allowed Tannehill to complete 74% of his passes while getting gouged on the ground for 9 YPC and 189 yards and 20 first downs. On no planet did the defense play a better overall game than the offense. Especially when you consider what the two units were ranked for Miami. The team in general sucked (especially in the second half), but the defense stunk on ice.

 

[BobDigital]

So just thought I'd drop in a give a balanced view from our end about the game and love to hear your thoughts.

1) Things that we have going against us in this game first and foremost is experience. The Pats have been to the AFC Championship game every year since Mahomes has been a sophomore in H.S. so that has to count for something with the players and the pressure they feel. The Chiefs have only been there once in the last 25 years and lost to the bills. So experience has to go to the Pats without question.

2) You have the GOAT and he is looking really good, the dismantling of the Chargers was a huge eye opener because many have said they have the most talent of any team in the AFC. Plus you have the best coach in the NFL.

3) overall just a really good well rounded team, good RB, WR, defense, special teams etc.

*************************************************************************************

The Chiefs biggest factors that favor them in the game are.

1) Defense, yes their defense at home plays completely different than there defense on the road. An example is here are the point totals they have given up at home this year. 27, 14, 23, 10, 14, 24, 29, 3, 13 and we average 35.1 points per game so even though the numbers may not pop out, they are much better than our road defense. We have the top unit for sacks ( not that it may matter much with how quickly Brady gets rid of the ball) but the biggest difference is our DB's are all different from our first game and they are much better than what we trotted out at safety and CB against you earlier in the year.

2) Our Offense in general, we thought after Hunt was released that it would hurt the team and while it took a couple of weeks to get it figured out it seems that Williams is running and catching the ball every bit as good as Hunt did this year. We have Sammy Watkins back so we have 4 legit play makers besides Mahomes.

3) Mahomes - I keep waiting for the wheels to come off this year for him but they never do. We haven't had one game this year where we were blown out or not looking like we have a chance, the most we have lost by was 7 but most were 3 or less. He is the best QB our team has ever had and its not even close.
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Conclusion: I think home field will matter a lot, if we were playing at your place I'd give us a 10-15% chance to win, but playing at Arrowhead I'd say its a coin flip. I think its a game that you will be able to tell by halftime what's going to happen. If Brady's on then its going to be a tough game, if he gets rattled then I think it helps us sneak out a win. I think it will be a 35-31 game either way, not sure who will win but even with the cold they are both going into the 30's.

Here are my thoughts on your thoughts.

Experience factor - I think it gives the Pats a small edge potentially, but it could be no edge at all. Experience is really only an edge if the KC players get too jacked up for the game or play scared/hesitant because of the moment. It has more to do with your own team's mental toughness than anything. The experience in the moment matters a lot less then the experience gap between the QBs.

Brady - Having Brady is a nice little edge, but it's probably not going to be what determines the game unless Mahomes pees down his leg. It will probably give the pats a small edge, considering game conditions more than anything.

KC D at home - I think your D does play better at home. But I don't really buy into it a a huge difference. As was pointed out, too many of those games were against bad teams and bad offenses. Every good offense you faced this year has put up a lot of points on your team be it at home or on the road (SD/NE/PIT/LAR/SEA/BAL(13th) all put up good points on you. The ones in the top 10 all did at least 28 (home or road). While Baltimore did 24. The only good offense you held down was Indy last game, and there were a lot of things that went wrong for Indy besides HFA. Leaving 4 points on the board, bad drops, stupid and untimely turnovers, and finally they were just a generally soft dome team. It was just not a good performance when you look at the tape. Yes your team played pretty well but they didn't come out ready to play. I do think the HFA both helps your D and O a bit. But it shouldn't be night and day. At least not at this point in the season when you assume both teams should come out ready to go.

Hunt - As for your offense not losing much since Hunt left, that's simply not true going by both the numbers and the eye test. It hurt a lot. Getting Watkins back is nice but he isn't close to off setting what losing Hunt cost your team. Particularly for what Hunt does in the passing game. It's a huge drop off there. As a runner, not so much to be honest.

Mahomes - He is the real deal but also benefited from some real weapons. Without Hunt his game has suffered a bit, which is to be expected. Yet he is still doing a very good job. I don't expect him to suddenly stop doing so.

My conclusions is on a neutral field I believe the Pats would win as both teams are right now 60% of the time. On your field with the conditions that will be there that day it drops to 55% IMO. I still like the Pats to win but it should be a good game.

 

[Brandon Manning]

Love it. They were never in danger in Chicago but you call it "a miracle throw away" but then within the same paragraph claim that the Steelers loss was flattering even though we were one Brady redzone brainfart away from drawing that game.

Objectivity goes out of the window when it comes to silly narratives.

They haven't looked as good on the road compared to home. That is worrisome. As is the fact they've lost by ten points or more (Titans, Jags, Lions) in three of said road games. The penalties in the Pittsburgh game were concerning as well.

Fine. I'll give them the Chicago game. Might be their most impressive road win of the season. But the pattern shows this team generally struggles on the road in 2018. I have no idea why either. Maybe it's a coincidence. If they win in KC, none of the road struggles will matter. But in order to evaluate this game, you cannot ignore how they've performed away from Gillette Stadium.

 

[Brandon Manning]

Good post.

If you follow me at Chiefs Planet, I'm arguing HFA is incredibly overrated. If it was such an X factor, you would have beat TN, Pitt and BAL at home in the playoffs.

You win on the road when you play well. You lose when you don't.

HFA doesn't 100 percent determine the outcome of a game. I'll say that. But said games you mentioned were with Alex "check down" Smith at QB. Also that Baltimore game was eight years ago. Todd Haley was coach. Cassell was QB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

HFA doesn't 100 percent determine the outcome of a game. I'll say that. But said games you mentioned were with Alex "check down" Smith at QB. Also that Baltimore game was eight years ago. Todd Haley was coach. Cassell was QB.

Thats my point. The teams that beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead were better teams.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

If you throw out the Losses, the Pats were 3-0 on the road! Ok seriously, I expect the D to play better in this game as there wasn’t really any motivations in the reg season

 

[dannydyn]

The Chiefs biggest factors that favor them in the game are.

1) Defense, yes their defense at home plays completely different than there defense on the road. An example is here are the point totals they have given up at home this year. 27, 14, 23, 10, 14, 24, 29, 3, 13 and we average 35.1 points per game so even though the numbers may not pop out, they are much better than our road defense. We have the top unit for sacks ( not that it may matter much with how quickly Brady gets rid of the ball) but the biggest difference is our DB's are all different from our first game and they are much better than what we trotted out at safety and CB against you earlier in the year.

I think we need to chill out on the Chiefs’ defensive home/road splits just a tad.

Kansas City allowed 34.8 points per game in road contests this season but only 17.4 points per game at home. It was the largest split of any team this season.

But consider the offenses the Chiefs faced, and it starts to seem a little less dramatic.

Home: 49ers, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Raiders, Ravens.

Away: Chargers, Steelers, Broncos, Patriots, Browns, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders.

The best offense the Chiefs faced at home by total yards was Baltimore’s, which ranked ninth in the NFL this season. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA*, the best offense the Chiefs faced at home was the Chargers, who ranked third in offensive DVOA. That was the one home game the Chiefs lost, though they gave up a not-good-but-not-abysmal 29 points. Road opponents have included the Rams (second in yards and by DVOA), Patriots (fifth in yards and by DVOA) and Steelers (fourth in yards, fifth by DVOA).

Average out the offenses the Chiefs faced on the road and they would have ranked 10th by DVOA and 12th by total yards. The teams they played at home ranked 21st by DVOA and 20th by total yards. That’s pretty stark. Might not account for the whole disparity between points allowed at home and on the road, but it’s definitely a factor.

 

[luuked]

But the pattern shows this team generally struggles on the road in 2018

This is like my main issue with all of this hot air ****. There is no pattern. Two out of three of those bad losses were early in the season when things didn't click anywhere: not on offense, not on defense and also not on ST.

The Titans loss is the only uncharacteristic away loss of the entire season. The Steelers game was a coin flip that could have easily gone the other way, @Miami a Brady brainfart and a 1:1,000,000 miracle play away from being a decisive victory.

If they had made that one tackle in Miami and finally won that difficult game in Florida would that have changed your entire outlook ? One tackle ?

They played bad they lost, they played well they won. Coincidentally some of those games were in Foxboro others were on the road. The one thing I definitely agree with is that the margin for error is smaller on the road but I don't believe for one second that they are somehow fundamentally struggling on the road.

 

[IllegalContact]

Cool. And the Pats played like a juggernaut against all of the bottom feeder teams they played against on the road.

Oh wait, they lost embarrassingly to 5 of them.

Or does that not matter now that we’re in the playoffs now? Then the Chiefs record no longer matters either.

Hehe....looky here....sackless decides to do more than a dislike

They’re all meaningless points.....however, the chiefs aren’t as badass at home as one would think.

Carry on with your personal misery

 

[BobDigital]

But it did kinda happen again in the Chargers game. First, Tom should take a shot in the end zone. Second, it was on fourth down and he tried to spike it.

Not really the same thing. Gost was missing FGs in practice from less than the distance they were at on the field consistently in warm ups. They had no chance for a FG from there IMO. As for a shot in the end zone there was no point most likely. Who is going to come down with it for us? This version of Gronk? Dorsett? Also, if picked off it could be returned for a TD. If intercepted 6 of the people on the field would be the OL and Brady. Not the best defenders if something crazy happens.

The best play was to do what they did. Try to throw a quick pass to the sideline to gain more yards for a FG. It was the only play that made sense and had a good chance of succeeding. The only issue was the defense made a GREAT play and managed to get there in time to push the WR out of bounds going backwards.

At there point it doesn't matter what the team does. Maybe Tom wanted to try to spike the ball cause he thought he had the first down. It is entirely understandable for him to believe that. It was REALLY close. It isn't like he had the benefit of a TV close up perspective from his position.

I don't blame the Patriots at all for how they handled that situation. They made the right call. The defense just made a good play. Not at all like what Brady did in Miami.

 

[BobDigital]

Three likely outcomes from this game: Chiefs win a close one. Chiefs win in a blowout. Or Pats win in a close game. When you factor in the HFA & talent on both sides, the Chiefs have more margin for error. I think they can have a few turnovers and penalties, yet still win the game. If the Pats have a few turnovers and penalties, the game likely won't be close. If this game were being played at home, I'd say it would be 55/45 the Pats win. Where it's being played in K.C, I think it is 70/30 the Chiefs win.

Disagree. I think all 4 results are very possible. It may be even more possible the Pats blow KC out than the other way around. Our defense is perhaps more capable of getting stops than theirs. We were on the verge of blowing them out in the first meeting until a bunch mistakes happened that let them back in it.

 

[BobDigital]

They haven't looked as good on the road compared to home. That is worrisome. As is the fact they've lost by ten points or more (Titans, Jags, Lions) in three of said road games. The penalties in the Pittsburgh game were concerning as well.

Fine. I'll give them the Chicago game. Might be their most impressive road win of the season. But the pattern shows this team generally struggles on the road in 2018. I have no idea why either. Maybe it's a coincidence. If they win in KC, none of the road struggles will matter. But in order to evaluate this game, you cannot ignore how they've performed away from Gillette Stadium.

Nothing that happened before means much now really. It is just about who plays well. The LAC were the best road team in the NFL this year. That didn't matter last week. It is how the team in question plays.

It may be true the Patriots have failed to live up to a certain level of intensity of focus at time this year on the road. I wouldn't expect that to happen in an AFCCG. They may win and they may lose. But it won't be because they came to play without energy, focus or being fully prepared like they have at time this season.

 

[venecol]

HFA doesn't 100 percent determine the outcome of a game. I'll say that. But said games you mentioned were with Alex "check down" Smith at QB. Also that Baltimore game was eight years ago. Todd Haley was coach. Cassell was QB.

You spend a lot of time and energy pooing things Pats do good and exaggerating their negatives. You clearly are not a Patriots fan so stop pretending. Are you a Steelers or Philly fan?

 

[Brandon Manning]

You spend a lot of time and energy pooing things Pats do good and exaggerating their negatives. You clearly are not a Patriots fan so stop pretending. Are you a Steelers or Philly fan?

The dude I quoted mentioned the Chiefs playoff losses to Baltimore (in 2010 w/Cassell), Pittsburgh, & Titans at home. But the latter two losses had check down Smith at the helm. And the other Baltimore game was eight years ago. So if a poster is going to use past performances to discuss HFA and what not, maybe he shouldn't use games from eight years ago. A game which had a different QB & coach at the helm.

And pointing out that the Patriots have been poor on the road this season isn't negativity. It's a fact that cannot be disputed. So if you don't like it, don't respond. Or if you want to respond, try and refute what I am saying.

 

[scott99]

I think weather will be a major factor. That ball will be a rock. Drops in key moments, Fumbles. I see a lower scoring game than most. For the Pats to win, they need to play their best game of the year, they basically need 60 minutes of how they played the Chargers in the 1st half, or like how they played the Falcons in the 2nd half of SB 51.

As far as Mahomes and the Chiefs, I have yet to see Mahomes play a bad game. He's mature beyond his years, and as a Pat's fan, I fear him and the Chiefs big time. They always seem to have the Pat's number, except the game back in October, took a last second field goal to beat the Chiefs, they came all the way back to tie it. Outscored the Pats 31-19 in the 2nd half. The 2nd half seems to be the Pat's weak point against really good teams.

Not sure how this game will wind up, I'm more worried, than confident, but that's normal for this long time Pat's fan.

 

[venecol]

They haven't looked as good on the road compared to home. That is worrisome. As is the fact they've lost by ten points or more (Titans, Jags, Lions) in three of said road games. The penalties in the Pittsburgh game were concerning as well.

Fine. I'll give them the Chicago game. Might be their most impressive road win of the season. But the pattern shows this team generally struggles on the road in 2018. I have no idea why either. Maybe it's a coincidence. If they win in KC, none of the road struggles will matter. But in order to evaluate this game, you cannot ignore how they've performed away from Gillette Stadium.

It's funny that 2 of the road losses you are focusing on happened 4 months before Sunday's game. All 3 of the early losses were to teams that had top 10 defenses and the Pats run game was kept under 90 yards (they avg. 127/gm).

None of that is pertinent (aside from it being a road game) to the AFCCG since KC doesn't have a top 10 defense (more like bottom 10) and they suck against the run. You continue to grasp at irrelevant information to "guarantee" a Patriots loss. You're just trolling.

 

[venecol]

I think weather will be a major factor. That ball will be a rock. Drops in key moments, Fumbles. I see a lower scoring game than most. For the Pats to win, they need to play their best game of the year, they basically need 60 minutes of how they played the Chargers in the 1st half, or like how they played the Falcons in the 2nd half of SB 51.

As far as Mahomes and the Chiefs, I have yet to see Mahomes play a bad game. He's mature beyond his years, and as a Pat's fan, I fear him and the Chiefs big time. They always seem to have the Pat's number, except the game back in October, took a last second field goal to beat the Chiefs, they came all the way back to tie it. Outscored the Pats 31-19 in the 2nd half. The 2nd half seems to be the Pat's weak point against really good teams.

Not sure how this game will wind up, I'm more worried, than confident, but that's normal for this long time Pat's fan.

I think something to consider is how the Chiefs played against the playoff teams (2-4), not good. They couldn't find a way to beat good teams so they are definitely beatable (pats already did). Although I do agree they probably have better offensive talent, I just think the Pats have better coaching and experience and all it takes is to win by 1 point, nothing else matters.