From a Chiefs Fan Perspective

[SHOWTIME15]

This is like my main issue with all of this hot air ****. There is no pattern. Two out of three of those bad losses were early in the season when things didn't click anywhere: not on offense, not on defense and also not on ST.

The Titans loss is the only uncharacteristic away loss of the entire season. The Steelers game was a coin flip that could have easily gone the other way, @Miami a Brady brainfart and a 1:1,000,000 miracle play away from being a decisive victory.

If they had made that one tackle in Miami and finally won that difficult game in Florida would that have changed your entire outlook ? One tackle ?

They played bad they lost, they played well they won. Coincidentally some of those games were in Foxboro others were on the road. The one thing I definitely agree with is that the margin for error is smaller on the road but I don't believe for one second that they are somehow fundamentally struggling on the road.

I mean if the Pats win at Miami, they would be 4-4 on the road and based on that record how they play in any road game is basically a coin flip. The road woes are being overrated.

 

[Bradybranch]

I think we need to chill out on the Chiefs’ defensive home/road splits just a tad.

Kansas City allowed 34.8 points per game in road contests this season but only 17.4 points per game at home. It was the largest split of any team this season.

But consider the offenses the Chiefs faced, and it starts to seem a little less dramatic.

Home: 49ers, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Raiders, Ravens.

Away: Chargers, Steelers, Broncos, Patriots, Browns, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders.

The best offense the Chiefs faced at home by total yards was Baltimore’s, which ranked ninth in the NFL this season. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA*, the best offense the Chiefs faced at home was the Chargers, who ranked third in offensive DVOA. That was the one home game the Chiefs lost, though they gave up a not-good-but-not-abysmal 29 points. Road opponents have included the Rams (second in yards and by DVOA), Patriots (fifth in yards and by DVOA) and Steelers (fourth in yards, fifth by DVOA).

Average out the offenses the Chiefs faced on the road and they would have ranked 10th by DVOA and 12th by total yards. The teams they played at home ranked 21st by DVOA and 20th by total yards. That’s pretty stark. Might not account for the whole disparity between points allowed at home and on the road, but it’s definitely a factor.

They allowed twice as many points on the road. That definitly comes down to more than just quality of opponents

 

[venecol]

One more thing, Patriots are completely healthy during post season for a change. They are clicking on all cylinders. I think they will surprise maybe even shock everyone on Sunday. I see Brady saying things that are unusual for this time of the year. Patriots seem very confident like they know something nobody else knows. Last Sunday was fun and I'm hoping for the same again.

 

[Brandon Manning]

It's funny that 2 of the road losses you are focusing on happened 4 months before Sunday's game. All 3 of the early losses were to teams that had top 10 defenses and the Pats run game was kept under 90 yards (they avg. 127/gm).

None of that is pertinent (aside from it being a road game) to the AFCCG since KC doesn't have a top 10 defense (more like bottom 10) and they suck against the run. You continue to grasp at irrelevant information to "guarantee" a Patriots loss. You're just trolling.

What about the loss in Pittsburgh? Miami? What about the penalties on the road vs home? Why shouldn't I as a fan be more worried this game is away, and not at home? You are the one grasping at straws here. Try and argue the point instead of name calling.

 

[Kdo5]

Both teams are scoring under 30, I'm calling it.

 

[Brandon Manning]

I think something to consider is how the Chiefs played against the playoff teams (2-4), not good. They couldn't find a way to beat good teams so they are definitely beatable (pats already did). Although I do agree they probably have better offensive talent, I just think the Pats have better coaching and experience and all it takes is to win by 1 point, nothing else matters.

So you tell me not to focus on the Pats losses (Jags & Lions) more than 4 months ago. Yet, here you are talking about the Chiefs being 2-4 against playoff teams. Yet two of those losses were 3.5 months & 2 months ago. So which is it? If we are going to discredit the Pats losses because they were so long ago, shouldn't the same apply to the Chiefs?

Try and refute that.

 

[Drewski]

Both teams are scoring under 30, I'm calling it.

I tend to agree. KC doesn't give up a "ton" of points at home (30 seems to be the magic number they never reach)

FWIW, this year's team is 5-4 when they score less than 30 & 10-2 when their opponent scores less than 30.

 

[venecol]

What about the loss in Pittsburgh? Miami? What about the penalties on the road vs home? Why shouldn't I as a fan be more worried this game is away, and not at home? You are the one grasping at straws here. Try and argue the point instead of name calling.

The losses at Pitt and MIA are more relevant, one was a close game and the other was in the bag until a lucky play worked. Again, neither of those have any bearing on Sunday's game since neither one of those teams made the playoffs.

How do you feel about the record of both teams against teams that actually made the playoffs? This would be more relevant don't you agree?

 

[venecol]

So you tell me not to focus on the Pats losses (Jags & Lions) more than 4 months ago. Yet, here you are talking about the Chiefs being 2-4 against playoff teams. Yet two of those losses were 3.5 months & 2 months ago. So which is it? If we are going to discredit the Pats losses because they were so long ago, shouldn't the same apply to the Chiefs?

Try and refute that.

Point taken.

 

[Brandon Manning]

The losses at Pitt and MIA are more relevant, one was a close game and the other was in the bag until a lucky play worked. Again, neither of those have any bearing on Sunday's game since neither one of those teams made the playoffs.

How do you feel about the record of both teams against teams that actually made the playoffs? This would be more relevant don't you agree?

The losses at Pitt and MIA are more relevant, one was a close game and the other was in the bag until a lucky play worked. Again, neither of those have any bearing on Sunday's game since neither one of those teams made the playoffs.

How do you feel about the record of both teams against teams that actually made the playoffs? This would be more relevant don't you agree?[/QUOTE]

 

[Brandon Manning]

Where this game is in KC, it is more relevant how the Chiefs did against playoff teams at home. They were 1-1. Beat Baltimore in a close game, and lost to the Chargers in a close game. They barely lost to the Pats, Rams, & Seahawks on the road. Patriots were 1-0 (Bears) in road wins against playoff teams. But it should be pointed out that the Chiefs defence has also gotten more pressure (sacks) at home.

I cannot remember the last time a BB & Brady led teams was this Jekly and Hyde between home/away. Maybe 09? It's not just that they are losing these road games. It's that they commit more penalties, look disorganized, and suddenly the defense turns into the one we saw in the SB. I can't explain it. But I also can't ignore it when it comes to evaluating this game. We can only analyze what we've seen thus far. We don't know what will happen. That's the beauty of sports.

 

[Brandon Manning]

I mean if the Pats win at Miami, they would be 4-4 on the road and based on that record how they play in any road game is basically a coin flip. The road woes are being overrated.

But even if they won that Miami game, they still didn't look as good on the road vs home. It's not just that they are losing road games. It's that they look more undisciplined and disorganized.

 

[Tuck]

If this game were at a neutral site I'd say there is no way the Pats lose based on the way they are playing, but I see two problems that will make this one tough to win, none of which has to do with Mahomes, Kelce or Hill. The biggest problem for the Pats will be pre-snap communication. They have been setting up the pass with the run all year and and the way that cat and mouse game is played is through the pre-snap audibles which could be nearly impossible with the crowd noise. Second problem is the playing surface. Arrowhead is a grass field. As a rule, turf teams under perform on grass and indeed 4 of the Pats 5 losses this year came on grass. The field will be frozen so it may play 'fast' and negate the home field advantage but it wont be the artificial surface that New England is used to.

 

[TommyD4207]

I'm not saying Williams is as good as Hunt but looking at his stats but more importantly the eye test I'd say he is every bit of 85-90% of Hunt. The guy is a solid runner but can catch as good as Hunt and in our offense that's very important. But Sammy looks like he is back to 90% plus health which is great, then you throw in Hill and Kelce and its a pretty solid offense. Again I think its hard to bet against the Pats until the actually beat them in a game that matters. Should be fun.

You've replaced Marshall Faulk with Trung Candidate.

 

[venecol]

But even if they won that Miami game, they still didn't look as good on the road vs home. It's not just that they are losing road games. It's that they look more undisciplined and disorganized.

If they won at MIA we wouldn't be discussing their road record at all. It is what it is.

 

[Redstorm]

Chiefs and Patriots are both 1-0 in the playoffs this year. Colts and Chargers were hyped as the most “complete teams” in the AFC

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

They haven't looked as good on the road compared to home. That is worrisome. As is the fact they've lost by ten points or more (Titans, Jags, Lions) in three of said road games. The penalties in the Pittsburgh game were concerning as well.

Fine. I'll give them the Chicago game. Might be their most impressive road win of the season. But the pattern shows this team generally struggles on the road in 2018. I have no idea why either. Maybe it's a coincidence. If they win in KC, none of the road struggles will matter. But in order to evaluate this game, you cannot ignore how they've performed away from Gillette Stadium.

Oh no Mr. Manning they were bad in September.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

They allowed twice as many points on the road. That definitly comes down to more than just quality of opponents

Nah ... that is 90% quality of opponents and 10% crowd and zebras

 

[Pats2000]

So just thought I'd drop in a give a balanced view from our end about the game and love to hear your thoughts.

1) Things that we have going against us in this game first and foremost is experience. The Pats have been to the AFC Championship game every year since Mahomes has been a sophomore in H.S. so that has to count for something with the players and the pressure they feel. The Chiefs have only been there once in the last 25 years and lost to the bills. So experience has to go to the Pats without question.

2) You have the GOAT and he is looking really good, the dismantling of the Chargers was a huge eye opener because many have said they have the most talent of any team in the AFC. Plus you have the best coach in the NFL.

3) overall just a really good well rounded team, good RB, WR, defense, special teams etc.

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The Chiefs biggest factors that favor them in the game are.

1) Defense, yes their defense at home plays completely different than there defense on the road. An example is here are the point totals they have given up at home this year. 27, 14, 23, 10, 14, 24, 29, 3, 13 and we average 35.1 points per game so even though the numbers may not pop out, they are much better than our road defense. We have the top unit for sacks ( not that it may matter much with how quickly Brady gets rid of the ball) but the biggest difference is our DB's are all different from our first game and they are much better than what we trotted out at safety and CB against you earlier in the year.

2) Our Offense in general, we thought after Hunt was released that it would hurt the team and while it took a couple of weeks to get it figured out it seems that Williams is running and catching the ball every bit as good as Hunt did this year. We have Sammy Watkins back so we have 4 legit play makers besides Mahomes.

3) Mahomes - I keep waiting for the wheels to come off this year for him but they never do. We haven't had one game this year where we were blown out or not looking like we have a chance, the most we have lost by was 7 but most were 3 or less. He is the best QB our team has ever had and its not even close.
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Conclusion: I think home field will matter a lot, if we were playing at your place I'd give us a 10-15% chance to win, but playing at Arrowhead I'd say its a coin flip. I think its a game that you will be able to tell by halftime what's going to happen. If Brady's on then its going to be a tough game, if he gets rattled then I think it helps us sneak out a win. I think it will be a 35-31 game either way, not sure who will win but even with the cold they are both going into the 30's.

This is the most concerned I've been heading into a playoff game in many years. The Chiefs offense is just so fast, how do you contain everyone. Even when you played us at home you put up 40 points. I think this is how most opposing fans feel playing the Pat's year in and year out. We have to play a perfect game, no mistakes, and even then, the Chiefs could still score enough to win. Either way this will be a wild game. Hopefully Mahommes only gets the opportunity to reach the SB after Bradu retires or the Pat's are already knocked out of the playoffs

 

[italian pat patriot]

For sure it will be a tough game

I tend also to agree it will not be an high scoring game as ecpected...so both teams lower then 30

Still we hv to play a perfect game to win and not easy at all...

We suffered on the road this year as we know and at Arrowhead the crowd is a factor too...

But i think Pats will be ready for this big game

I expect really a wild game and a close one

Anyway Mahomes has been phemomenal this year...seems he is not feeling pressure...let s sunday...