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TL;DR
New England 24
Jacksonville 14
So, this is the second time I've done this. The first was SBLI. I wouldn't mind turning it into a regular thing if I could streamline the process.
Proof of concept:
While I accurately projected a victory, TFB's pick six was unexpected and really skewed the final score from what I had projected; my projected 37-17 swung instantly to 30-24 or 34-24, much closer to the actual. The Pats D did ultimately hold the Falcons to three scores.
Highlights:
Matt Ryan Projection: 288 yards, 2TD, 1INT | Actual: 284yds, 2TD, 0INT
Gabriel Projection: 3rec, 53 yards | Actual: 3, 76yds
Freeman Projection: 2rec, 34 yards | Actual: 2, 46yds
Falcons O Projection: 374 yards | Actual: 388 yards
Hogan Projection: 4rec, 84 yards | Actual: 4, 57yds
Bennett Projection: 4rec, 41 yards, 1TD | Actual: 5, 62yds
Patriots O Projection: 532 yards | Actual: 570yds
There were some lowlights as well, such as my projection of Blount running for over 100 yards. Whoops. You can read more about the methodology in that thread (here).
Updated Methodology
I've updated some of the methodology, this time accounting for the fact that our defense underwent a massive change starting in Week 7. Jacksonville's defense started something of a decline around the same time. I also adjusted how I project receiving stats, this time working off of completion percentages and yards per catch for the receivers than the straight yards/attempt model I used last time. I'm not sure it'll be better. We will see. Everything else is more or less the same, except I calculated total points based on yards/point allowed from the respective defenses; again, after Week 7.
I thought about doing a deeper dive into opponents similar to those we had faced, but the fact is that in both cases, New England and Jacksonville are going up against pass defenses that are far better than either have faced all year. The only other team in the NFL that is in the Pats or Jags league in terms of pass defense since Week 7 is the Minnesota Vikings. There really aren't too many good comps to get into.
I also tried to improve the workflow a bit. It was a grizzled mess last time, and I'm trying to streamline it so it's not so damned difficult to decipher and repeat in the future.
So, let's get to it. Before I looked into all this, I had in my head 27-7 or 27-6, but based on the numbers, these are the projections:
Projections
New England 24
Jacksonville 14
------------------------------------
NE Leaders
Brady
25/37, 66.2%, 304 yards, 2TD, 1INT
Lewis
13 carries, 59 yards | 2 rec, 16 yards
Gronkowski
5 rec, 79 yards, 1TD
TOTAL OFFENSE: 415 yards
------------------------------------
JAX Leaders
Bortles
19/32, 59.6%, 197 yards, 1TD, 1INT
Fournette
16 carries, 66 yards, 1TD | 3 rec, 21 yards
Cole
3 rec, 53 yards
TOTAL OFFENSE: 328 yards
New England 24
Jacksonville 14
So, this is the second time I've done this. The first was SBLI. I wouldn't mind turning it into a regular thing if I could streamline the process.
Proof of concept:
While I accurately projected a victory, TFB's pick six was unexpected and really skewed the final score from what I had projected; my projected 37-17 swung instantly to 30-24 or 34-24, much closer to the actual. The Pats D did ultimately hold the Falcons to three scores.
Highlights:
Matt Ryan Projection: 288 yards, 2TD, 1INT | Actual: 284yds, 2TD, 0INT
Gabriel Projection: 3rec, 53 yards | Actual: 3, 76yds
Freeman Projection: 2rec, 34 yards | Actual: 2, 46yds
Falcons O Projection: 374 yards | Actual: 388 yards
Hogan Projection: 4rec, 84 yards | Actual: 4, 57yds
Bennett Projection: 4rec, 41 yards, 1TD | Actual: 5, 62yds
Patriots O Projection: 532 yards | Actual: 570yds
There were some lowlights as well, such as my projection of Blount running for over 100 yards. Whoops. You can read more about the methodology in that thread (here).
Updated Methodology
I've updated some of the methodology, this time accounting for the fact that our defense underwent a massive change starting in Week 7. Jacksonville's defense started something of a decline around the same time. I also adjusted how I project receiving stats, this time working off of completion percentages and yards per catch for the receivers than the straight yards/attempt model I used last time. I'm not sure it'll be better. We will see. Everything else is more or less the same, except I calculated total points based on yards/point allowed from the respective defenses; again, after Week 7.
I thought about doing a deeper dive into opponents similar to those we had faced, but the fact is that in both cases, New England and Jacksonville are going up against pass defenses that are far better than either have faced all year. The only other team in the NFL that is in the Pats or Jags league in terms of pass defense since Week 7 is the Minnesota Vikings. There really aren't too many good comps to get into.
I also tried to improve the workflow a bit. It was a grizzled mess last time, and I'm trying to streamline it so it's not so damned difficult to decipher and repeat in the future.
So, let's get to it. Before I looked into all this, I had in my head 27-7 or 27-6, but based on the numbers, these are the projections:
Projections
New England 24
Jacksonville 14
------------------------------------
NE Leaders
Brady
25/37, 66.2%, 304 yards, 2TD, 1INT
Lewis
13 carries, 59 yards | 2 rec, 16 yards
Gronkowski
5 rec, 79 yards, 1TD
TOTAL OFFENSE: 415 yards
------------------------------------
JAX Leaders
Bortles
19/32, 59.6%, 197 yards, 1TD, 1INT
Fournette
16 carries, 66 yards, 1TD | 3 rec, 21 yards
Cole
3 rec, 53 yards
TOTAL OFFENSE: 328 yards