F***ing With Stats: Breaking Down Pats vs Jags

[Kontradiction]

Short, quick and methodical passes and long drives. Dink and dunk and attempt the long ball ONLY if its there, don't force anything. Negate the pass rush with bubble screens and RB routes from the backfield, getting rid of the ball as fast as possible.

Jimmy did it well.... wonder where he learned that from?

Bubble screens are going to be wasted downs if they're not blitzing. And they usually don't have to. The best way to move the ball on the Jags, honestly, is to straight up run them over. Very few tosses/sweeps/outside runs in general. Pound it right up the A-gap and try to get your blockers to the second level to take advantage of a favorable match-up with their faster, but smaller, backers. That's why I think we're in for a BIG game by Dion.

 

[TommyD4207]

Bubble screens are going to be wasted downs if they're not blitzing. And they usually don't have to. The best way to move the ball on the Jags, honestly, is to straight up run them over. Very few tosses/sweeps/outside runs in general. Pound it right up the A-gap and try to get your blockers to the second level to take advantage of a favorable match-up with their faster, but smaller, backers. That's why I think we're in for a BIG game by Dion.

I agree, but they're going to hit a couple of those okie-doke screens they hit against Tennessee as well, because Jacksonville loves to overpursue.

The way I've been expressing it, is that the Jacksonville defense is essentially 11 Troy Polamalus.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree, but they're going to hit a couple of those okie-doke screens they hit against Tennessee as well, because Jacksonville loves to overpursue.

The way I've been expressing it, is that the Jacksonville defense is essentially 11 Troy Polamalus.

If they do bring extra rushers, I would expect Brady to check into a screen or two, but I wouldn't rely on it. I wouldn't get too cute in general with trying to go east to west on this defense. Pittsburgh did that on key downs and paid for it.

 

[nabwong]

I think we're gonna destroy them like we destroyed the 2012 Texans and last year's Steelers. I think the occasion will be too big for them. They might put up a fight in the 1st quarter or midway through the 2nd but we'll make the adjustments and they'll be gassed from being unable to move the ball on O, being on the field too long on D because we're gonna make them rush us 50 times.

 

[Kid~Brady]

I agree, but they're going to hit a couple of those okie-doke screens they hit against Tennessee as well, because Jacksonville loves to overpursue.

The way I've been expressing it, is that the Jacksonville defense is essentially 11 Troy Polamalus.

Yes, this was my point as well.

 

[Nikolai]

If they do bring extra rushers, I would expect Brady to check into a screen or two, but I wouldn't rely on it. I wouldn't get too cute in general with trying to go east to west on this defense. Pittsburgh did that on key downs and paid for it.

I agree with you in general. I don't know that the yards/attempt are there up the middle, but it will set up the play action nicely, something that Mariota actually used to kill them once this year. Brady has been pretty good at it too.

 

[Nikolai]

I think we're gonna destroy them like we destroyed the 2012 Texans and last year's Steelers.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

 

[Kid~Brady]

If they do bring extra rushers, I would expect Brady to check into a screen or two, but I wouldn't rely on it. I wouldn't get too cute in general with trying to go east to west on this defense. Pittsburgh did that on key downs and paid for it.

True but I feel like we have more players, not just one (Bell) who can do this in various ways. White, Lewis and especially Burkhead, Steelers don't have anything close to that versatility, which to me, makes us much more dangerous than them. I loved the game plan against the Titans, I think we need something similar, with wrinkles of course.

 

[TommyD4207]

If they do bring extra rushers, I would expect Brady to check into a screen or two, but I wouldn't rely on it. I wouldn't get too cute in general with trying to go east to west on this defense. Pittsburgh did that on key downs and paid for it.

Well, you're not going to see Student Body Right on 4th and 1, I agree.

Best way to run against them is between the tackles - let your run blockers do what they do best.

 

[Urgent]

Most insightful article I’ve read thus far regarding JAC’s success/failure vs different personnel groupings. There is a VERY STARK contrast in their success vs 11 personnel & all other personnel groupings (21, 12, 13, 22 etc). This is key.

Basically, most to all of the teams that either beat or had offensive success vs JAC used the lowest percentage of 11 personnel.

Sharp Football Analysis

That was some fascinating analysis.
For those who didn't read the link:
The Jaguars are dominant on pass defense against three & four receiver sets. They struggle defending two-back and two-TE sets.
The data for the 2017 season is, as Uptown noted, stark.
This looks at teams that feature three receiver sets (hello, Steelers) and teams that feature heavier formations (for example, the late SF game).
This is probably the kind of thing Belichick tends to notice. Expect a lot of Devlin and Allen, not much Lockett and Britt. This should not be a spread-them-out game plan.

For the season, this analysis shows the Jaguars defense yielding:
YPA 3+ receivers 5.0
YPA 1-2 receivers 9.6

 

[nabwong]

That was some fascinating analysis.
For those who didn't read the link:
The Jaguars are dominant on pass defense against three & four receiver sets. They struggle defending two-back and two-TE sets.
The data for the 2017 season is, as Uptown noted, stark.
This looks at teams that feature three receiver sets (hello, Steelers) and teams that feature heavier formations (for example, the late SF game).
This is probably the kind of thing Belichick tends to notice. Expect a lot of Devlin and Allen, not much Lockett and Britt. This should not be a spread-them-out game plan.

For the season, this analysis shows the Jaguars defense yielding:
YPA 3+ receivers 5.0
YPA 1-2 receivers 9.6

I wonder if this is scheme related or if it's match up. Assuming we have Gronk and Cooks as our 1-2, we have Hogan, Amendola, White, Burkhead, Lewis who are legit receivers. It also depends if Bouye and Ramsey will pick up Gronk. I'm not sure if they will.

 

[jimnance]

Most insightful article I’ve read thus far regarding JAC’s success/failure vs different personnel groupings. There is a VERY STARK contrast in their success vs 11 personnel & all other personnel groupings (21, 12, 13, 22 etc). This is key.

Basically, most to all of the teams that either beat or had offensive success vs JAC used the lowest percentage of 11 personnel.

Sharp Football Analysis

Great analysis. It backs up what I've seen with the naked eye: Pats are much better with 2 rbs/fbs. I think the key is having rbs who are mutidimensional. Lewis and Burkhead both great running, white is decent. All 3 great at receiving.
White and Lewis both great blockers,burkhead decent. Develin is a ProBowl fb,flat-out great blocker but can also catch,run short yardage. So you can mix and match any combo of all 3 and the D is still guessing what you're gonna do.
I loved Blount but he was in there just to run making Pats O more predictable.
I love the 1/2 almost as much as the 2/1,since Allen has improved over the season.
Plus having just 2 wrs at a time keeps them fresher, important vs. 2 physical cbs who can jam at the los.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Jacksonville is the matchup I was the most scared about.

They are a quality opponent however a handful of posters here overrate them.


Someone will click "disagree" in 3...2...1...

 

[IllegalContact]

Championship Round Rankings - Rotoworld.com

 

[IllegalContact]

based on the snap counts of the jags defense, it seems as though they like to go with 3 bigs with both Campbell and Jackson getting above average snaps with regard to typical DT snap counts and they mix in Dareus and Jones. with 3 of them and Ngakuoe on the field, they can only possibly put 7 in coverage

exploit the perimeter of the box

 

[Urgent]

If teams are more successful out of two back/two-TE sets, the obvious question is why? What are they doing with them?

Presumably, given their great success rushing with four DL, a spread offense plays to their strength. The Jacksonville rushers get to the QB quickly. So part of the success can be chipping or blocking with the extra interior players. It's not just that teams are more successful running against Jacksonville - it's that passing success is higher out of heavier sets, against the same corners. And passing to the backs could be a big opportunity. We might even see a third completion to Allen.

 

[maineman209]

It also depends if Bouye and Ramsey will pick up Gronk.

From the breakdowns I've been reading, Bouye and Ramsey single-up in Man on boundary WRs or cover the boundary zone almost exclusively (Bouye on the offensive left, Ramsey on the offensive right), as opposed to following specific players. If/when Gronk lines up wide, it seems possible that whichever one is covering that side might be involved in covering Gronk (with a safety).

I'm guessing that the Pats run mostly 1WR or 2WR sets.

One of the under-appreciated aspects of the Jags' pass defense is that their LBs and, especially their DL guys, knock down a lot of passes. LB/DL were responsible for 6 of 8 PBUs v. the Steelers, and 3 of 7 v. the Bills.

In the regular season, Abry Jones (NT) had 6 PDs, Jackson and Campbell each had 3. There other reserve/rotational DL had one apiece (15 total). Their three top LBs produced 10 PDs, Telvin Smith getting five, including 3 picks.

In comparison, Pats DL guys totaled 7 PDs and the Pats LBs (not counting Chung) contributed 5 total PDs.

 

[maineman209]

If teams are more successful out of two back/two-TE sets, the obvious question is why? What are they doing with them?

Presumably, given their great success rushing with four DL, a spread offense plays to their strength. The Jacksonville rushers get to the QB quickly. So part of the success can be chipping or blocking with the extra interior players. It's not just that teams are more successful running against Jacksonville - it's that passing success is higher out of heavier sets, against the same corners. And passing to the backs could be a big opportunity. We might even see a third completion to Allen.

Maybe Bouye and/or Ramsey bite on good play-action more often than is good for them?

This season, the Pats have run more plays out of 21 & 22 personnel (2 RBs, relatively heavy sets) than any other team in the league. They've had extraordinary success passing out of those packages mostly because one of those TEs is also an extraordinary receiver, but also because the Pats' play-action fakery is also very, very good.

 

[RIpats88]

have to think this is relevant to sunday. While they certainly have a good front 4, I wonder if they are somewhat over-rated by facing jacoby brisett, tom savage and TJ yates 4 times.

27 sacks over 12 games is a little over 2 sacks a game. Thats not exactly scary numbers

 

[Nikolai]

have to think this is relevant to sunday. While they certainly have a good front 4, I wonder if they are somewhat over-rated by facing jacoby brisett, tom savage and TJ yates 4 times.

27 sacks over 12 games is a little over 2 sacks a game. Thats not exactly scary numbers

They're a solid defense; very good in fact. But they are not nearly the defensive juggernaut the media has hyped them up to be.