F***ing With Stats: Breaking Down Pats vs. Falcons

[BlueThunder]

I believe I read somewhere that the Falcons Defense over the second half of the season has improved a bit.... Taking in the last 8 games plus playoff games may give a better look at where both team's Offense and Defense now stands.....I'm not a number cruncher but maybe someone could look at those stats and see what the outcome looks like? Great Job BTW...Thanks for the analysis !

 

[Nikolai]

It is probably NET yards per attempt meaning they deduct sacks.

I'm not sure why they would. Sacks are one outcome of a pass play. I guess everyone does it differently.

How do you determine similar offenses and defenses if you only include games you consider similar?

I didn't make that determination until examining all of the information. I only broke it down to similar offenses and defenses after looking at the length of the season.

 

[patriot1136]

I expect to see a lot of Blount and Lewis in the game (probably White too). Blount could have a big day and help us control the clock. Lewis is an x factor of sorts that they will have a hard time tackling and figuring out as he lines up all over the place. I'd like to see White in there too as he provides a lot in the passing and blocking game. I'm interested to see what they do with Floyd and Mitchell and who is active or not.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not sure why they would. Sacks are one outcome of a pass play. I guess everyone does it differently.

You would have to ask them but net passing yards per attempt is a stat.


by the way I think you misunderstand. Net passing yards includes the sack plays while passing yards does not.
Typically you use ypa for a QB so you don't charge him with the sack and Nypa is nore a team stat.

 

[Ring 6]

I expect to see a lot of Blount and Lewis in the game (probably White too). Blount could have a big day and help us control the clock. Lewis is an x factor of sorts that they will have a hard time tackling and figuring out as he lines up all over the place. I'd like to see White in there too as he provides a lot in the passing and blocking game. I'm interested to see what they do with Floyd and Mitchell and who is active or not.

I think there are a lot yards to be made on the ground but I think we are going to play fast.
We can do different things with the same personell so when we get a defensive package on the field we can exploit we will go to hurry up.
I expect Brady to have one of the top 10 or so games of his career Sunday.

 

[mosi]

Quick Points

6. Not once did Matt Ryan ever let a defense have a better than average day against him. Every single time Matt Ryan faced a defense, he took more than the defense typically allows. Brady was almost as good, but twice, opposing defenses had better than average days against Brady.

So that's it...

Nice and brief

Against the Eagles, he had a rating of 78.7. The Eagle Defense averages 85.7.

He had 267 yards and the Eagles give up ~240 yards so he beat it by a little. He completed 55% of his passes and the Eagles generally allow 60% completion. The Eagles controlled him and they did it by stopping the run, doubling Gabriel and playing tight single man coverage on Jones and limiting his YAC.

The Falcons can't stop the run at all. They are small and over-pursue. We are not talking running lanes but rather running zones.

 

[IllegalContact]

I was thinking the same thing but just can't see who could be inactive for Floyd. Difficult decision..

Mitchell........doesn't do special teams and was about as effective against the steelers as floyd was against the texans......I could see floyds talents wrecking defenders on yac plays

 

[Nikolai]

don't be surprised to see Floyd active for this game.....between him and Hogan, the Pats can field 2 WR's as big as half of the Falcon defenders. A couple of willing blockers like that at WR could repeatedly have much smaller guys isolated in the open field against Blount and seeing as they're the worst tackling team in the league, would appear to be something that is not solveable by game planning......which in turn will produce huge play action ooportunities

the Falcons will overpursue big time

I thought about including Floyd, but there's just not enough data to make a projection with which I would be comfortable, but you're right. Floyd is a potential nightmare if he is activated and plays like he did against Miami.

I believe I read somewhere that the Falcons Defense over the second half of the season has improved a bit.... Taking in the last 8 games plus playoff games may give a better look at where both team's Offense and Defense now stands.....I'm not a number cruncher but maybe someone could look at those stats and see what the outcome looks like? Great Job BTW...Thanks for the analysis !

The Falcons D DID improve with their Pass D, but their run D is suspect. They've allowed six 100+ yard games on the ground in the last eight games. The problem for opposing teams is that they didn't have the kind of pass offense to take advantage of it. And if they did (Seattle and Green Bay), they killed themselves with turnovers.

Thanks! It's been interesting to actually look at the numbers and try to gain a sense of how these teams actually match up. But again, it's just ****ing with numbers, so....

 

[Nikolai]

Against the Eagles, he had a rating of 78.7. The Eagle Defense averages 85.7.

He had 267 yards and the Eagles give up ~240 yards so he beat it by a little. He completed 55% of his passes and the Eagles generally allow 60% completion. The Eagles controlled him and they did it by stopping the run, doubling Gabriel and playing tight single man coverage on Jones and limiting his YAC.

The Falcons can't stop the run at all. They are small and over-pursue. We are not talking running lanes but rather running zones.

Yep, the Philadelphia game is the closest he came to having a below opposing-defense performance. And I agree with your takeaway. If we stop Coleman and Freeman, that should be a big factor.

I agree about their run D. Seeing a big day for Blount.

 

[Ross12]

But I'm confused - Falcons fans have been telling me for two weeks that they have so many weapons there's no possible way to stop them?

 

[libra957]

Hopefully Julio Jones doesn't have 300 yard again.

 

[mosi]

But I'm confused - Falcons fans have been telling me for two weeks that they have so many weapons there's no possible way to stop them?

In the Philly game, Nolan Carroll was doing a pretty good job singled up on Jones. He ended up getting concussed by his own man and went out. Jones took advantage of who ever replaced him.

It looked like McKelvin was on Gabriel with safety help.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Nice, job Niko. One question: you have Tom throwing 3 TD's, but only 2 receivers with a TD. Blount is listed with a TD but I assume that is rushing since he is not credited with any receptions.

 

[IllegalContact]

I thought about including Floyd, but there's just not enough data to make a projection with which I would be comfortable, but you're right. Floyd is a potential nightmare if he is activated and plays like he did against Miami.



The Falcons D DID improve with their Pass D, but their run D is suspect. They've allowed six 100+ yard games on the ground in the last eight games. The problem for opposing teams is that they didn't have the kind of pass offense to take advantage of it. And if they did (Seattle and Green Bay), they killed themselves with turnovers.

Thanks! It's been interesting to actually look at the numbers and try to gain a sense of how these teams actually match up. But again, it's just ****ing with numbers, so....

another note......Devondre Campbell is the only back 7 player taller than 6'1"

the Falcons suck at covering TE's ..... most every opponent targets the TE more than any other position

if this is indeed Bennett's last game as a Pat, then it behooves everyone to emphasize his abilities especially in the red zone

 

[mosi]

Yep, the Philadelphia game is the closest he came to having a below opposing-defense performance. And I agree with your takeaway. If we stop Coleman and Freeman, that should be a big factor.

I agree about their run D. Seeing a big day for Blount.

And Lewis. Both Matthews and Sproles and shifty backs and they had field days against the Falcons.

 

[Nikolai]

Nice, job Niko. One question: you have Tom throwing 3 TD's, but only 2 receivers with a TD. Blount is listed with a TD but I assume that is rushing since he is not credited with any receptions.

Forgot to put White's TD in there.

Glad you guys are here to mop up my **** ups. I thought about letting it sit and posting it today, but I just wanted it out of my life and posted it in the middle of the night...whoops

 

[luuked]

Mitchell........doesn't do special teams and was about as effective against the steelers as floyd was against the texans......I could see floyds talents wrecking defenders on yac plays

I'd say Mitchell knows more of the playbook and closer to a receiver Brady trusts than Floyd. But then again I am basing this on what I am seeing on the field and have no clue what happens on the practice field.

 

[Nikolai]

And Lewis. Both Matthews and Sproles and shifty backs and they had field days against the Falcons.

I might agree, and I think Lewis will have some fine plays. If I'm staying true to my analysis, then I'm thinking it looks like Blount will have a monster day on the ground, forcing the Falcons to drop more players into the box, hence opening up opportunities for receivers downfield, thus limiting Lewis' touches in the pass game.

But yes, I could easily see Lewis going off as well.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Nice job! How many RB's have had over 100 yards against this Falcon's defense?

 

[RobertWeathers]

I expect to see a lot of Blount and Lewis in the game (probably White too). Blount could have a big day and help us control the clock. Lewis is an x factor of sorts that they will have a hard time tackling and figuring out as he lines up all over the place. I'd like to see White in there too as he provides a lot in the passing and blocking game. I'm interested to see what they do with Floyd and Mitchell and who is active or not.

Pats have been pretty balanced all year 54/46 pass/run.

If you go by what Football Outsiders has and study where/how opponents have had success vs ATL's D, they've destroyed them once their RBs get past the LoS and throwing to their RBs,WR3 and WR3.

So, that tells me they might try and get D Lew and White the ball in space a ton as it seems ATL is a below average tackling team. So maybe some throws in the flat off of PA, swing passes, screens, mis directions, etc and use their speed and aggressiveness against them. Blount will do OK but I don't know if he'll go "hog wild" and I expect D Lew to get a lions share of the carries as he is better in space. ATL is a pretty fast D. As long as the score is even or Pats are up, I would assume LG will get his yards in the 2nd 1/2.

I don't know what to make of the WR3/4 success. ATL plays Cover 3 (single high zone) but based on TB12 destroying zone, they might play more man to man coverage underneath and clog the middle more. If the Pats need to prepare for more man/man coverage, that just might mean Floyd sees the field.

Regardless what ATL does, Tom is hanging 31+ points on this defense