F***ing With Stats: Pats vs Eagles SBLII

[Nikolai]

TL;DR
New England 23
Philadelphia 17

Proof of concept:
New England vs. Jacksonville Projection Results

Updated Methodology
The biggest swing and a miss from the AFCCG was that I underestimated Bortles' performance. There were two models and I went with the conservative model, even if the model predicting a stronger Bortles performance was based on more data. This time, I applied the same methodology for both Brady and Foles, and included all data, going with what would be a more aggressive model for both Brady and Foles. The results point to a slightly higher scoring game than I had originally, but a widening of the Patriots margin of victory.

The Eagles also adjusted their gameplans somewhat significantly since Foles took over for Wentz. Interestingly, the Eagles favored passing over running and with a couple exceptions, Foles has answered the call in the playoffs. But the Eagles projected tendencies for this game are based more on recent performances with Foles at QB rather than the aggregate for the season.

So, let's get to it. Before I looked into all this, I had in my head a higher scoring game along the lines of 30-20, but based on the numbers, these are the projections:

Projections

New England 23
Philadelphia 17
------------------------------------
NE Leaders

Brady
27/41, 66.2%, 313 yards, 2TD, 1INT

Lewis: 14 carries, 61 yards | 2 rec, 15 yards
Burkhead: 5 carries, 18 yards | 2 rec, 18 yards
White: 3 carries, 11 yards | 4 rec, 30 yards

Gronkowski: 6 rec, 93 yards, 1TD
Cooks: 5 rec, 78 yards
Amendola: 4 rec, 46 yards, 1TD

TOTAL OFFENSE: 424 yards

------------------------------------
PHI Leaders

Foles
19/29, 64.6%, 195 yards, 1TD, 1INT

Ajayi: 12 carries, 75 yards, 1TD | 1 rec, 5 yards
Blount: 14 carries, 62 yards

Ertz: 4 rec, 43 yards, 1TD
Jeffrey: 3 rec, 41 yards
Agholor: 3 rec, 40 yards

TOTAL OFFENSE: 332 yards

 

[Nikolai]

Quick Points

1. Philadelphia, statistically, shares a lot in common with Jacksonville. The two teams employ a different style but end up with a much similar bottom line when it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency, especially with Nick Foles at QB. Philadelphia relies a little more on the sack to derail their opponents’ passing game, so if Brady can stay vertical in time to deliver the ball, it could be a long day for the Eagles.

2. The Pats are going to get it done in between the numbers. Brady is projected to pass for 313 yards, and over half of his passing yards will go to TEs and RBs (add Allen(!) with 1 rec for 6 yards to the above projections). Philadelphia has been susceptible to passes to TEs and RBs, and the Pats are uniquely suited to take advantage of this dynamic. Other than Gronk, none of the RBs are projected to shine above the others as the Pats feature a true committee against Philadelphia.

3. Philadelphia’s pass defense doesn’t get quite the respect it should. There’s been a sense that maybe the Eagles have been hyped up, but the hype surrounding Philadelphia’s defense seems to be something less than the hype around Jacksoville’s defense prior to the AFCCG. However, from an efficiency standpoint, Philadelphia is every bit as good as Jacksonville.

4. Philadelphia is going to struggle with the pass and excel at the run. This one goes against the prevailing wisdom and is purely based off the numbers. Philadelphia’s tendency against teams that resembles the Patriots’ defensive efficiency is to run, and I’m projecting 137 yards on the ground for Philadelphia. The Patriots are 8-3 when allowing more than 100 yards on the ground, which includes the AFCCG. The Patriots are 6-3 when allowing more than the seasonal average of yards a game.

5. The statistical projection for this game bears an uncanny resemblance to the Chargers game. Rivers threw for 192 yards, the Chargers rushed for 157 yards, Brady threw for 317 yards, and the Pats rushed for 92 yards in a 21-13 New England win.

6. Gronk’s status for this game represents a 3-point swing in the projection. With Gronk, the Pats win 23-17; without Gronk, it’s almost a pick em’ at 20-17.

 

[luuked]

I was waiting for your thread @Nikolai

Always interesting to read through it.

 

[Nikolai]

I was waiting for your thread @Nikolai

Always interesting to read through it.

Thank you! I've been sitting on this for a few days, waiting for a final status regarding Gronk. Now that we have some fidelity on it, I felt better about posting the projection. Unfortunately, a lot of my commentary is typically off the cuff, and I honestly forgot some of the finer points I saw when putting this together, so it looks a bit thin. Bah well...

 

[Brady_Moss]

Throughout all the stats, I still have a great feeling about the Pats blowing the Eagles out.

 

[Nikolai]

Throughout all the stats, I still have a great feeling about the Pats blowing the Eagles out.

I've had this feeling myself. The numbers say otherwise, but if it means a Pats blowout, I couldn't be more happy to be wrong.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Good job, I enjoy reading your work....a one score game, I was hoping for a bigger margin.....

 

[Nikolai]

Good job, I enjoy reading your work....a one score game, I was hoping for a bigger margin.....

Thank you for the kind words.

Alas, I was hoping for a bigger margin as well. I hadn't paid much attention to Philadelphia all year and had no idea how good their defense was...just goes to show what happens when we rely on a diet of hawt taeks about other teams to stay informed.

 

[BlueThunder]

Pretty close to what my preliminary score prediction is......will firm it up when I see the list of players out...Hope Gronk
isn't on that list.. ( Edit: I see Gronk cleared the protocol and will play ! Great News)
and would love to see Brown dressed and ready....nice analysis Nikolai