draft strategy question

[yukon cornelius]

how do people see this draft trending

there's always the two schools of thought......drafting to fill needs, and drafting the best player available

do folks see teams sticking more towards one or the other, with the difficulties so many teams have seen needing to free up cap space, and the added unpredictability COVID has thrown into the draft, with no real combine, limited tape on some players, etc

do folks see this draft playing out with more teams sticking to need, or more teams sticking to best player available to lock in talent at rookie contract levels......or does it play out like it does every year, with some teams trending towards one or the other based on draft preference/philosophy

do folks see it trending one way or the other, more so than in other years?

 

[jboston19]

With how little college season there was, prospect ranking will be all over the place. That’ll be the biggest change is some teams focusing on what they could see on tape and others gambling on unknown lottery tickets that didn’t play.

I don’t think philosophies on need vs bpa will change for individual teams.

 

[Sicilian]

I think there will be more teams (in general) that will want to accumulate a volume of picks rather than a shallower pool of higher picks, simply because their picks will be a little more guesswork than a typical year. So you try to mitigate that with more kicks at the can. That said, the total number of picks doesn't change, so for every team trying to add picks, you'd have to have one with the philosophy that Less is More, so I don't expect there to be a huge difference in what we see. Perhaps you'll find teams that decide to trade into next year for a more traditional scouting year, and if they find partners that want to add picks to this year, you'll see more movement there.

On need versus BPA, I think you'll see a slight shift in the direction of BPA. More than other years, it's going to be harder to predict who will be ready to go year one, so trying to fill immediate holes with draft picks (which is already risky) is a little more unpredictable this year.

 

[Ring 6]

I still expect to see an unusual amount of players traded for picks. Teams with cap issues can clear cap room and add additional later round picks that will improve the cap by making the team.
Should be a banner year for udfas too.

 

[Hyped]

BPAs in rounds 1-2 then wild lotto tickets in rounds 3-7 is how I see it. And by BPA, I mean the player with the most attributes checked off while also being the lowest risk possible.

 

[Bourne Patriot]

I think there will be a lot of moves up for QBs.

I'm in two minds as to what I think BB will do. Half of me thinks like many, that he will trade up as high as possible for a QB.

The other half thinks it will be business as usual - trade down, draft a LB/CB, then a 3rd round QB and continue to build for the future in the hope that Newton, Stidham or a 3rd round rookie will get it done with better pieces around them.

 

[yukon cornelius]

i think BB will trade up.......he has the capital to do it

it just might not be into the top 10 for QB1-3/4......it might instead be back into the 1st or top of the 2nd, or back into the later 2nd, to take QB4-7

i think the odds that mills/mond/newman hit it as a quality NFL starter really aren't that much different than the odds of trask/jones/lance......i think the differences in their floors/ceilings are there, but they all are going to need time and development

i also think this is a year where draft boards are all over the place, and some teams will be more than willing to move down to get more picks, between the cap issues and the volatility of this years draft

 

[lancerman]

This is the year to trade up and grab a QB

 

[yukon cornelius]

This is the year to trade up and grab a QB

i think that's option 1 for sure......but i think he'll see how it's playing out, and what the cost will be

i'm not sure if they are convinced there is ONE guy that they have to have.....if that's the case, they'll go for it......they have the capital and are in position to make that happen - i don't see them going herschel walker for 1 or 2, but......

but if they don't have ONE guy in mind, i could see the trade up into a position later in 1 or 2 to get one of the guys they want

it's BB......he's hard to predict, and he keeps his options open - this year for sure there's a lot of unpredictability, and he's put them in position to have multiple draft scenario options

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Two pronged approach:

1.) Trade up for waddle!
2.) trade back into the first round for Mac Jones!

rest of the draft is gravy!

 

[DarrylS]

Two pronged approach:

1.) Trade up for waddle!
2.) trade back into the first round for Mac Jones!

rest of the draft is gravy!

Is there enough draft "capital" to do this?? Great pipe dream, but have my doubts they could pull that off.

 

[luuked]

i think that's option 1 for sure......but i think he'll see how it's playing out, and what the cost will be

i'm not sure if they are convinced there is ONE guy that they have to have.....if that's the case, they'll go for it......they have the capital and are in position to make that happen - i don't see them going herschel walker for 1 or 2, but......

but if they don't have ONE guy in mind, i could see the trade up into a position later in 1 or 2 to get one of the guys they want

it's BB......he's hard to predict, and he keeps his options open - this year for sure there's a lot of unpredictability, and he's put them in position to have multiple draft scenario options

If none of the alleged top 4 QBs are in reasonable range then there are enough alternatives to go BPA on defense and call it a good day like Parsons (LB) or Horn (CB). The beauty of the draft after the FA we had is that there really is no pressure on BB to do anything specific.

There is a plethora of good options to choose from and they have the ammunition to move around the draft even if they don't target a QB.

 

[farn]

I always want BPA. Most people (including me) like the OL. Best LT at 15 ? Yes please.

 

[everlong]

With the uncertainty and cap issues that others have pointed out there could be a lot more trading going on.

Everyone is thinking Bill will trade up for the QB of the future or he will stand pat and take the BPA. So that means he'll almost certainly trade down, acquire as many picks as possible, trust that his evaluations are correct and that the uncertainty gets him a ton of value across the board.

They legit could still use:

• 3rd down back to replace White that he'll train up on this one year deal.
• QB day two.
• CB
• Safety to replace DMC when he retires.
• LB to fill Hightower's spot long term.
• KVN depth and eventual replacement.
• WR
• Interior DL depth
• DE
• Tackle with both Brown and Wynn not being able to consistently stay on the field.

I'm probably missing some other needs or nice to haves.

Obviously pure speculation but I really haven't heard this option voiced. Yes they stood pat with Mayo and Solder the last times they picked this high so that's definitely in the cards if the right player falls to them. Sure they could take up for the QB having filled so many needs in FA. I'd still wrap my brain around them trading down maybe even more than once.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

"Acquiring as many picks as possible" doesn't seem to fit with NE's roster rebuilding to date this offseason. With 10 picks, there is no room for all of them. Bill needs to make draft pick quantity for draft pick quality moves, ending up with ~6 better picks rather than the 10 already in hand. That is whether he can get a 1-4 QB or not.

 

[moosekill]

They won't get Waddle and Jones. They won't get Waddle. 50/50 Jones will be gone before 15. I hope they trade up to get a qb, not sure if they will.

They have room for 4-5 rookies, so I assume they will package picks to move up, and/or trade picks for next year.

 

[BTTA]

They legit could still use:

• 3rd down back to replace White that he'll train up on this one year deal.
• QB day two.
• CB
• Safety to replace DMC when he retires.
• LB to fill Hightower's spot long term.
• KVN depth and eventual replacement.
• WR
• Interior DL depth
• DE
• Tackle with both Brown and Wynn not being able to consistently stay on the field.

I'm probably missing some other needs or nice to haves.

Barring injuries, I think you got it pretty well. Maybe a K? That's 11 players.

 

[stinkypete]

The QB market has gone batshit this year. In 2013, the Dolphins traded a second rounder to move up from #12 to #3. In 2021, the same move costs three 1sts and a 3rd? There is zero chance Belichick is playing by those rules. We're sticking with Cam until either the Niners blink on Garoppolo, or Houston cuts bait on Watson (presuming he is acquitted). Maybe we draft Mond or Newman or whoever, but unless Jones falls and the team loves him (maybe so, maybe not?), I just don't see the 1st round QB happening.

This draft, like all drafts should be, will be geared toward 2022 and beyond. With 5 QB gettign drafted early, some blue chip player is going to fall at a position that we will need. It's all going to matter on how the top 14 shake out. Smith, Parsons, Farley, Surtain and Horn are all impact players that will fill needs in the future, and there is a good chance one of them falls to #15. I predict Belichick waits to see what drops to him.

If they all get scooped up, I anticipate the dreaded trade down in hopes of landing a less sexy (buy equally impactful) player like Barmore, Moherig or Tucker.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think we can all agree that Lawrence is going #1 to the Jags and nothing is gong to change that.

So the Jets hold all the cards now, they can either take Wilson and trade Darnold, or trade the #2 pick for a King's ransom. You have to figure that the 49ers are set on taking Fields at #3 (I can't see them making that trade without be almost sure the guy they want will be there). So if you want Wilson or Fields you have to trade with the JEts.

The Bears are desperate for a QB, but they have only the 20th pick, and I don't think the Jets want to drop that far. The Panthers, Broncos, and Vikings all need a new QB, but are none of them are desperate for one and can roll with what they have. I'm guessing one of those three trades with the JEtes. The Jets still also have #23 and already have Seattle's #1 next year.

I think the Falcons are trading out of #4 for whoever wants Lance. They have Matt Ryan locked up with a huge cap number that would hard for them to get away from for at least the next year or so. They can't go WR this high in the draft again, so trading out makes the most sense for them.

Either way, it looks like the draft will go Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance.

I think the Bengals reunited Burrow with Chase at #5

Waddle, PItts, Simth, Surtan, and Sewell will go in picks 6-10

Then I think someone jumps in to grab Jones before 14 (Vikings pick 14, Pats 15).

So I highly doubt that BB can even get into position to draft a QB. No way the JEts trade #2 to the Pats and Lance just has too many question marks to mortgage the future on. I think its more likely that BB trades down in round #1, gets another pick somewhere between 46-96 to close that gap. Or he stays and takes Barmore, Parsons, or Owusu.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Barmore would be perfect in our defense, but we have a ton of defensive linemen on the roster now.