Other than maybe at QB, the Pats will pick not just the best player available, but the best available player on their unique draft board.
With no Combine and other Covid scouting deficiencies, it is probably smarter to punt some picks into 2022. With 10 picks this year, they have the draft capital to trade up at different points. 10 new draft rookies makes no sense after the free agent frenzy. Fans will want picks and will howl if Dolla Bill passes up somebody available they like in any round. However, in this year's post-free agency roster crunch, they might trade up to only take 5 or 6 picks this year while acquiring a few extra 2022 choices by trading back too. For example, with 3 - 4th round picks, they could trade all back while picking up 3 extra mid-round picks in 2022.
A QB is not as essential to pick this year as everybody believes. Both Cam and Stidham, no matter what fans think, get mulligans for 2020. There is no way that the Pats trade up in the first round. However, they might need to trade up as high as the top of the second round if Atlanta does not pick a first round QB.
If Atlanta takes a first round QB ahead of the Pats in Round 1, Mills, Mond or Trask, depending on who the Pats like most, ought to make it to pick 46. If the Pats don’t believe one of them is better than the other 2, they could trade back from 46 to maximize their picks in the top 150 or so while punting a few choices to 2022. Everybody picking sooner in the second round ahead of them, even the Eagles, should pick to bolster their defense or protect their already probable QB1 before 46.
Full 2021 NFL Draft Order | Tankathon
Ideally, if Atlanta already choose their first round QB heir to Ryan, the Pats pick the best available player who slides to 15, their second (with Stidham) developmental QB at 46 and then consolidate their remaining 8 picks with trade ups and trade outs to 2022 to target who they most like in the remaining rounds.
If Jones and all top 5 quarterbacks are picked before 15, somebody good ought to be there when the Pats pick there. If Jones is there at 15, do they draft him or trade back? This will be an interesting decision if they get to make it. If the Pats instead trade back from pick 15, the same consolidation trade into next year strategy applies. The cost of trading up for one of the premium first round quarterbacks is simply too high.
Of the second tier of quarterbacks, my favorite is Mills as explained here:
2021 NFL Draft Chicago Bears Scouting Report: QB Davis Mills
Unlike the Bears and some other organizations, Dolla Bill can definitely develop a quarterback. Stidham might still be an option. Seeing how he performs with this year’s improved team will be revealing.
Whether 4 quarterbacks go in the top 4-10 picks affects where the Pats pick their developmental QB. If Atlanta trades back without taking a QB or, staying put, doesn't take a QB at #4 is the key. I see them as partial to Davis Mills like me. With so little buzz about Mills and the Pats, I suspect that Dolla Bill might feel the same. The Falcons will almost certainly take him (or another QB that Dolla Bill covets) at the top of Round 2. If somebody rated high enough, like Parsons, doesn't slide to the Pats at 15, I see the maneuvering ready to begin.
If Jacksonville likes one of the top OTs or another player at 15, then a trade is setup. The Jags also have pick 25 in Round 1. 15 for 33, 45 and a 7th rounder this year or next is a match. At 33, the Pats can foreclose all the other teams looking for the next best developmental QB in Round 2. Mills is my guy but who else they might pick is debatable. If Mac Jones somehow slips out of Round 1, he might be the guy but, honestly, nobody knows who the next best QB will be. At 33, who they will pick is uncertain, but I see the Pats doing something like this to assure that they get whoever they rate as the next best QB before it's too late on the second day. Here is another analysis, before the reported good Mills Pro Day that agrees:
The Patriots haven't been shy about drafting quarterbacks in the middle of the draft, but Davis Mills' ceiling is much higher than Jarrett Stidham
musketfire.com
