Draft strategy if we pick Carter

[Hogo145]

Hey guys with everyone getting hyped over hunter possibly falling to us i was wondering what would be the optimum strategy if we end up selecting carter instead. Obviously hunter addresses more of a need but i think carter is too good to pass up on and would give us a totally stacked defense.

I think i would rather them target a tackle in the second or by trading up and waiting on wr. Reason being i think it is easier to trade for a wr down the line than a good LT. What do you guys think?

 

[manxman2601]

It's a very good question I've been meaning to ask.

Firstly, I think he's the best prospect in the draft so from that perspective I think he's a no-brainer pick because, as you say, it would give us a stacked DL.

However, would it be too stacked? The experience of the Eagles suggests that can't be the case but we have Landry signed to a fairly large contract for the next two years and I believe Keion White could be in line for a breakout season under Vrabel/Williams so you'd be looking at a 3 man pass rushing rotation of Landry/White/Carter and that's ignoring Chaisson who could be a good sub rusher.

I am in no way opposed to a pass rush rotation like that, the only reason for my 'negativity' is that I wonder if Carter being there at 4 is an opportunity for Vrabel/Wolf to maximise trade back value. There could be real competition to trade up for Carter. Trading back from 4 could put in the position of grabbing Tet in the first*, trading up for Conerly and still being able to grab a pass rusher like Sawyer/L Jackson, Princely or Swinson in the 2nd.

I would be very happy if they picked Carter at 4 but I'm not opposed to the trade down scenario I went with above either. On the other hand I WOULD NOT trade down if Hunter was there at 4 because of the WR need.

* you could reverse the trade down route and pick Membou/Banks with the first pick and grab Higgins + pass rusher with 2nd and 3rd picks.

 

[Brotherblues]

If you get Carter then the WR position gets placed on the back burner while you do everything you can to move up to draft one of your top LT targets, be it Simmons, Conerly, Ersery, or whoever.

Drafting a WR would then be relegated to a flyer on the 3rd or later. We'd have to wait another year to address that position in the first 2 rounds.

They may want to re-open discussions on Aiyuk the moment Carter falls on their lap.

 

[bakes781]

If they can get a haul meaning future 1sts than I'm all for it regardless of who falls.

If they get Carter than yes they need to try everything to trade up realistically for Josh Simmons in the early 20s. I'd still get another LT late in case Josh isn't 100% ready on week 1. Hollin Pierce and Anthony Belton are massive that could serve as a solid option in a pinch.

 

[Huckleberry1]

If they draft Carter then they will need to use a 26’ 2nd round pick+ to move up and get a tackle. And WR will have to be addressed in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

[manxman2601]

Would you take the Will Anderson trade for Carter?

In the trade, the Texans moved up to No. 3 overall to select EDGE Will Anderson. The haul for the Cardinals was significant:

• No. 12 overall (which Arizona also traded)
• No. 33 overall (which Arizona also traded)
• 2024 1st-round pick
• 2024 3rd-round pick

 

[Rdforty2]

If they draft Carter then they will need to use a 26’ 2nd round pick+ to move up and get a tackle. And WR will have to be addressed in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

They wouldn't have to give up anything in '26 to move up. We have 2 3rd's. One of them, plus 38, gets us into the 22-25 range, according to the trade value chart. That's not the end all in the discussion, but it gets you in the ballpark. I'd be willing to bet one of Simmons or Conerly are available at 25, or a few picks later.

To play along, WR just gets put off another year. Or becomes the remaining 3rd round pick. If Maye has time to throw, and the OL allows the ground game to produce, i think the offense will be improved. It gives another year to see exactly what Boutte, Polk, and Baker are made of.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

However, would it be too stacked? The experience of the Eagles suggests that can't be the case but we have Landry signed to a fairly large contract for the next two years and I believe Keion White could be in line for a breakout season under Vrabel/Williams so you'd be looking at a 3 man pass rushing rotation of Landry/White/Carter and that's ignoring Chaisson who could be a good sub rusher.

I present the following information for reference. I don't have an answer to your question.

FWIW, here are the Eagles "front 7" players who played more than 10% of D snaps in 2024.

Jalen Carter, DT, 79%
Josh Sweat, LB, 59%
Nolan Smith, LB, 52%
Milton Williams, DT, 48%
Jordan Davis, DT, 37%
Moro Ojomo, DT, 37%
Brandon Graham, DE, 30%
Bryce Huff, DE, 27%
Jalyx Hunt, LB, 23%
Thomas Booker, DT, 16%
Oren Burks, LB, 14%

Here is the same list for the Patriots.

Jahlani Tavai, LB, 82%
Anfernee Jennings, LB, 74%
Keion White, DE, 74%
Daniel Ekuale, DT, 65%
Davon Godchaux, DT, 61%
Christian Elliss, LB, 46%
Marte Mapu, LB/S, 43%
Jeremiah Pharms, DE, 41%
Deatrich Wise Jr., DE, 36%
Raekwon McMillan, LB, 24%
Sione Takitaki, LB, 17%
Eric Johnson, DT, 16%
Josh Uche, LB, 14% [traded]
Yannick Ngakoue, DE, 14%
Jaquelin Roy, NT, 13% [IR]
Christian Barmore, DT, 11% [IR]

 

[Huckleberry1]

They wouldn't have to give up anything in '26 to move up. We have 2 3rd's. One of them, plus 38, gets us into the 22-25 range, according to the trade value chart. That's not the end all in the discussion, but it gets you in the ballpark. I'd be willing to bet one of Simmons or Conerly are available at 25, or a few picks later.

To play along, WR just gets put off another year. Or becomes the remaining 3rd round pick. If Maye has time to throw, and the OL allows the ground game to produce, i think the offense will be improved. It gives another year to see exactly what Boutte, Polk, and Baker are made of.

Straight up draft value chart you are right, but I reality I don’t see anyone dropping from the early 20’s to 38 for just a 3rd round pick. And I doubt throwing in a day 3 pick would convince anyone to do it either. IMO the best way to ensure you can get back into the first in time to get the player you want it will take 2 2nd round picks, from this year:

 

[Gabriel_p94]

It's a very good question I've been meaning to ask.

Firstly, I think he's the best prospect in the draft so from that perspective I think he's a no-brainer pick because, as you say, it would give us a stacked DL.

However, would it be too stacked? The experience of the Eagles suggests that can't be the case but we have Landry signed to a fairly large contract for the next two years and I believe Keion White could be in line for a breakout season under Vrabel/Williams so you'd be looking at a 3 man pass rushing rotation of Landry/White/Carter and that's ignoring Chaisson who could be a good sub rusher.

I am in no way opposed to a pass rush rotation like that, the only reason for my 'negativity' is that I wonder if Carter being there at 4 is an opportunity for Vrabel/Wolf to maximise trade back value. There could be real competition to trade up for Carter. Trading back from 4 could put in the position of grabbing Tet in the first*, trading up for Conerly and still being able to grab a pass rusher like Sawyer/L Jackson, Princely or Swinson in the 2nd.

I would be very happy if they picked Carter at 4 but I'm not opposed to the trade down scenario I went with above either. On the other hand I WOULD NOT trade down if Hunter was there at 4 because of the WR need.

* you could reverse the trade down route and pick Membou/Banks with the first pick and grab Higgins + pass rusher with 2nd and 3rd picks.

In my opinion I think the only way the pats trade back if with Carter on the board still is if a future 1st is involved.

I think by adding a player like him to this team they are making the defense a true strength and that would be too good to pass up. I think the biggest knock on Carter is probably his size(and I mean that in the sense that he needs to bulk up a bit) and with him not needing to be the main rusher off the edge it allows him to still get a good portion of snaps while still being able to take time getting used to the difference in the nfl strength and physicality.

But again, if the offer includes a future first and then some I wouldn’t hate a trade back.

 

[manxman2601]

In my opinion I think the only way the pats trade back if with Carter on the board still is if a future 1st is involved.

I think by adding a player like him to this team they are making the defense a true strength and that would be too good to pass up. I think the biggest knock on Carter is probably his size(and I mean that in the sense that he needs to bulk up a bit) and with him not needing to be the main rusher off the edge it allows him to still get a good portion of snaps while still being able to take time getting used to the difference in the nfl strength and physicality.

But again, if the offer includes a future first and then some I wouldn’t hate a trade back.

I think you are right here. One thing to remember with Carter is that he's a former off-ball linebacker so could be used as a chess piece rather than exclusively as an edge rusher. Edge rusher is his strength but I can see a scenario where you could have a front four of Chaisson-Williams-White (or Barmore)-Landry and then have Carter in the linebacker spot either as a threat to blitz, spy a mobile QB or drop into coverage.

 

[bakes781]

Assuming the draft order in round 1 stays the same then no team has more than 1 selection so yeah you are likely looking at future picks in a trade down.

 

[patsfaninpa]

1 Darth Vader

2a Tre Harris - WR

Move up in 2nd for Ersery. 69 and 4th
2b Aireontae Ersery - LT He’s not a finished product. He hasn’t played as much football as a guy like Campbell. But, I feel he will become a good LT in time. May not be 2025.
He did very well against Carter. PSU even moved Carter to LDE at times. I’d guess to get him away from Ersery. Rome wasn’t built in a day. We’re coming off back to back 4-13 seasons. Boston media is outraged we haven’t plugged every hole yet.

3 I think one of the OSU rb’s slides to this pick. If not, Fannin - TE Bowling Green

We’d be getting real close to building an outstanding defense if we add Carter.

Improvement from Drake Maye and it won’t be as difficult to add offensive talent next year. Hope we sign Diggs. Even if he can be a dink at times.

 

[Rdforty2]

Straight up draft value chart you are right, but I reality I don’t see anyone dropping from the early 20’s to 38 for just a 3rd round pick. And I doubt throwing in a day 3 pick would convince anyone to do it either. IMO the best way to ensure you can get back into the first in time to get the player you want it will take 2 2nd round picks, from this year:

I look at it the other way. You may get less than the draft value chart says. When a guy like Daniel Jeremiah says the talent from 10-40 is roughly similar, teams may be motivated to move down for a little less. If you can move down, get your guy and something else, you're happy.

The Patriots traded #23 for #37 and #71 when they wanted Dugger. Pretty similar value as our situation now. Almost dead on to use 38 and 69 or 77 to get to 22-25.

 

[Pacific Coast Patriot]

Hey guys with everyone getting hyped over hunter possibly falling to us i was wondering what would be the optimum strategy if we end up selecting carter instead. Obviously hunter addresses more of a need but i think carter is too good to pass up on and would give us a totally stacked defense.

I think i would rather them target a tackle in the second or by trading up and waiting on wr. Reason being i think it is easier to trade for a wr down the line than a good LT. What do you guys think?

If you read between the lines, I think Carter is 99% going to be our pick - so this thread is a good topic.

TEN - Ward is a borderline lock by all accounts

CLE - Myles Garrett "knows who the QB will be" - this means they almost certainly told him they're taking Sanders at 2, there's no chance they sold him on Dart or some other guy that may or may not even be there in R2. If it was a FA they were sure about, they'd have signed them by now. This is the single biggest clue that isn't being talked about enough IMO. Also, if that wasn't enough for you - basically all their fans are in unison that they HAVE to draft a QB at 2 or they're going to burn the building down.

NYG - With Sanders gone... this has to be Hunter who will play CB primarily for them. They're already set at EDGE, with Burns and Thibodeaux, plus their entire fanbase is desperate for Hunter and a trade up for Dart end of R1 to sit behind Winston.


Anything I'm missing as to how this goes differently?

So yes for NE it will be R1 Carter, then R2 tackle, then a R3 WR if I had to bet on it, or they go RB if Diggs signs pre-draft.

 

[manxman2601]

1 Darth Vader

2a Tre Harris - WR

Move up in 2nd for Ersery. 69 and 4th
2b Aireontae Ersery - LT He’s not a finished product. He hasn’t played as much football as a guy like Campbell. But, I feel he will become a good LT in time. May not be 2025.
He did very well against Carter. PSU even moved Carter to LDE at times. I’d guess to get him away from Ersery. Rome wasn’t built in a day. We’re coming off back to back 4-13 seasons. Boston media is outraged we haven’t plugged every hole yet.

3 I think one of the OSU rb’s slides to this pick. If not, Fannin - TE Bowling Green

We’d be getting real close to building an outstanding defense if we add Carter.

Improvement from Drake Maye and it won’t be as difficult to add offensive talent next year. Hope we sign Diggs. Even if he can be a dink at times.

I quite like this strategy although I'd go with a different WR but I have an issue regarding the trade up for Ersery. Pick 69 and the 4th gets you to about pick 54/55 according to the Rich Hill trade chart. What is the plan if Ersery is off the board at that point?

As much as I would like a Jayden Higgins at 38, I do think a LT (possibly with a trade up) is the safer bet. I would then double dip at WR later in the draft to increase the odds of nailing the position. Tory Horton or Tre Harris as an X, Jaylin Noel, Jalen Royals, Kyle Williams and Jaylin Lane would all be my personal targets.

 

[Aussie Patriot]

 

[Clonamery]

You can't pick yourself but you can pick your nose.

 

[KCSVEN]

If you read between the lines, I think Carter is 99% going to be our pick - so this thread is a good topic.

TEN - Ward is a borderline lock by all accounts

CLE - Myles Garrett "knows who the QB will be" - this means they almost certainly told him they're taking Sanders at 2, there's no chance they sold him on Dart or some other guy that may or may not even be there in R2. If it was a FA they were sure about, they'd have signed them by now. This is the single biggest clue that isn't being talked about enough IMO. Also, if that wasn't enough for you - basically all their fans are in unison that they HAVE to draft a QB at 2 or they're going to burn the building down.

NYG - With Sanders gone... this has to be Hunter who will play CB primarily for them. They're already set at EDGE, with Burns and Thibodeaux, plus their entire fanbase is desperate for Hunter and a trade up for Dart end of R1 to sit behind Winston.


Anything I'm missing as to how this goes differently?

So yes for NE it will be R1 Carter, then R2 tackle, then a R3 WR if I had to bet on it, or they go RB if Diggs signs pre-draft.

That would be my analysis, but Vegas odds have Carter going #2 which leaves Sanders #3. Seems Browns would be a Hunter/Sanders choice since Garrett signed. Many scouts now have Carter as the #1 prospect over Hunter but team need seems to line up Hunter with Giants or Browns.

I've been reading the Giants board, honestly it seems to lean Carter over Hunter. Many are suggesting they would trade Thibodeaux. Joe Schoen is a bit of a wild card, not sure he's a very good GM and may make a dumb mistake. I could see them trade down.

Does seem, barring Sanders Pro Day being bad, that the 2 Qb's are going in the top 4, and we likely get 1 of the 2 blue chip prospects. Of course we want offense, but after watching the Eagles defense destroy Mahomes and watching Anfernee Jennings try to pass rush last year I'm not going to cry too much to have an elite NFL pass rusher. With Williams inside and Carter outside could be a dominate pass rush. I think you win on defense the easiest by rushing and getting pressure with 4, and having 7 in coverage.

One executive for an AFC team told ESPN's Jordan Reid that the New York Giants are "praying" the Cleveland Browns use their pick on either Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter so they will have the option of taking Sanders at No. 3 overall.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

The only way my draft strategy changes later on based on what we do at #4 is that if we take Hunter I wouldn't take another CB high most likely if they plan on playing him there extensively. With Gonzo/Davis/Hunter that would be the 1 non-QB position on the team that's anything close to set or locked up for the foreseeable future IMO.

Even if we take Carter at #4, I still think we need another EDGE long term. Landry is older and bad pass rush tape recently despite high sack total. Chaisson is a 1 year situational player. Jennings shouldn't be on the field on passing downs. White should be inside on passing downs. I'd take another EDGE at #38 if the draft board dictates it.

If we take a WR at #4, well we still need 2 starting WRs so Boutte/Douglas can be #3/#4 and I have zero faith in Polk/Baker. So I'd double dip there if the board dictates it.

If we take a LT at #4, we still need a long term RT because Wallace didn't inspire any confidence last year and Moses is a stop gap for 1-2 years. So I'd take another OT in the 2nd round if the board dictates it.

I'd go BPA at every pick regardless. This team still has holes all over the roster and only 1 guy in Gonzo who is an all pro caliber payer right now. Maye obviously has that potential too. Barmore if healthy. Maybe Milton Williams if you really buy him as a budding star who will play better on this deal than he did in PHI. That's still painfully low on high end talent. We need to focus on that over positions.