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Draft Game: Everyone can play


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Aggressive draft:
24 & 28 bundled in a move-up trade to #8 with Houston: Adam Carriker DE Nebraska 6-6 296 - the best 3-4 DE prospect in the draft. Not a "need" but a clear improvement over Marquis Hill and a timely acquisition before Mike Wright hits RFA next off-season or Ty Warren's being UFA in two years.
60: Miami.
91 & 219 bundled to move up to #90 with Philadelphia: Stewart Bradley OLB Nebraska 6-4 254 - I consider him the best true LB prospect in the draft, capable of playing inside or outside with good coverage skills.
123 comp pick adjusted +5 to 128: Sabby Piscitelli SS Oregon State - playmaking and athletic SS.
4th round comp pick, adjusted +10 to 137: Zak DeOssie ILB Brown - good sized LB, athletic.
165: Comp pick adjustment +17 to 182: Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska 5-10 210 - competition for Sammy Morris and a Practice Squad candidate.
187: Comp pick adjustment +17 to 204: Craig Dahl SS North Dakota State 6-2 216 - Good Combine, another big Safety for depth.
6th round comp pick, Comp pick adjustment +24 to 215: John Talley CB Duke 6-0 188
7th round comp pick, Comp pick adjustment +32 to 255: Anthony Waters ILB Clemson 6-3 245

----------------------------------------
Conservative Draft:
24: LB Stewart Bradley (Nebraska)
28: CB A.J. Davis (NC State)
60: Miami
91: DL Paul Soliai (Utah)
123 comp pick adustment +5 to 128: SS Sabby Piscitelli (Oregon State)
4th round comp pick +10 from end of round = 137: ILB Zak DeOssie (Brown)
165 +17 for comp adjust 182: RB Brandon Jackson (Nebraska)
187 +17 for comp adust 204: TE Dante Rosario (Oregon)
6th round comp pick adjust +24 from end of round #215: SS Craig Dahl (North Dakota State)
219 +24 comp adjust to 243: CB John Talley (Duke)
7th round comp pick adjusted +32 to 255: ILB Anthony Waters (Clemson)

I'm confused about Bradley. You take him at No. 90 in the aggressive conservative mock but at 24 in the conservative mock. Given team needs, I would take Landry SS in your aggressive mock instead of Carriker.
 
Would it shock you if I said yes? I really like Grubbs. Converted from DLine, to TE, then started his last 3 years at OG, consistantly inproving every year. When I looked at the list from 24-59, he was the no brainer for me. I think that he could start next year, and become a Pro Bowl level O Lineman. In my ratings he is the second best O lineman in the draft. O'Callahan & Kazcur are young and talented, but they have both been prone to injuries in college, and since.
I think we all put a bit too much worry into "holes", or potential holes. Let them match up against us. The tougher question was Houston @ 28 as there were several players that I liked. Without getting into trading picks to move down 10-15 spots, he was my choice.

No it wouldn't shock me, especially 2-3 years down the road. Also I thought Neal slipped a little last year. Worst case is Grubb take spot action int year 1 and then moves into the lineup in year 2.

I am just as curious about Joe Staley and maybe Sears.
 
I'm confused about Bradley. You take him at No. 90 in the aggressive conservative mock but at 24 in the conservative mock. Given team needs, I would take Landry SS in your aggressive mock instead of Carriker.
First, I consider this a weak draft, players suitable for the 3-4 front seven are usually in short supply, and the fact this team is reloading in Free Agency gives me more leeway in the draft. Second, Safety and Offensive Linemen are deep in this draft, Landry is now the unquestioned #1, but I'd be just as happy with a Piscatelli or Wendling or Payne or Dahl (I can actually get two of those four if the draft fell the way that list was ranked, so why go high for Landry?). CB is weak and Samuel is franchised, otherwise I might consider Hall, but I'm content to pick through the mid-late rounds. WR doesn't move me early, TE sucks, the only day one RB I like is Leonard, and I see him as more of a Faulk-like complementary player.

In this draft there are four Safeties who were clumped together at the top before Landry's Combine locked him in at #1, Nelson, Griffin, and Meriweather are still clumped together in the lower first & early second rounds if someone wanted a FS. Carriker's closest competition is getting a mid-second round grade from most draftniks and missed most of his senior year to injury. I like what I read about him, but if I have the chance, I'll take the guy who played his senior year and dominated at the Senior Bowl. There is one other player who projects to a possible 3-4 DE in the second, but needs to gain about 20 lbs, he's coming off an injury in a bowl game, kind of a risky pick in the second.

The Pats have adequate Safeties and Defensive Ends on the roster, neither position is a "need." Both can be improved, I will accept that going from a Wilson to a Landry appears to be the larger "improvement," but Carriker is unique in this draft, and from quotes attributed to BB, in any draft if he is the type of DL who can be a Warren or Seymour. Sey started right away, Warren platooned his first year and blossomed in his third before breaking out last year, he's got two years left.

If I'm going to be aggressive in this draft it's because I have a chance to get a potential Richard Seymour. I don't need Ed Reed, I can get by with a Rodney, and there are potential Rodney's who will be signed as UDFA's when you look at size, speed, and talent. Either draft takes two of them in Piscatelli and Dahl.

If I can't trade out of 24, then I'm in a 'use it or lose it' situation. I could take a number of players I like between 24 and 90 as ranked on that list, but none I feel has as much potential to help in the short term at the team's greatest weakness, linebacker depth. Bradley rates above Harris based on measurables and watching the two of them Senior Bowl week. Bottom line, Bradley has the size, talent, and measurables to play inside or outside in NE's 3-4, Harris is an ILB and on the small side. So I "reached" for the player who could do the most as I see it. I trade up one for Bradley in the aggressive scenerio because I could afford to and still get him using that ranking chart, hence the difference. The basic premise of the aggressive approach is I can trade and get the exact player I want.
 
Meant to do this after the combine, glad I waited. This is kinda of fun. BY the way, first time I have looked at all the drafts in a while, nice work by everyone, some really good picks. This team is going to be very solid, unless I am missing something all the starting positions are filled so we are drafting for depth or rotation players.

24 - Reggie Nelson - FS - Florida
- Before the combine it would have been lunacy to suggest that we would have a shot at Nelson at 24. His stock is falling, good time to buy. Leaving out the combine numbers, every game I saw him play he made big plays.

28 - Chris Houston - CB - Arkansas
- Pretty good 5th cornerback, I would think really hard about Siler, Harris and Staley at 28

91 - Andy Alleman, OG, Akron
- backup G, has upside
- missed Bradley by 1 pick, bummer, in real life I think he goes around 60-70, unique body and speed combo

123 - Brian Robison - OLB - Texas
- 4th OLB and Special Teamer

165 - Laurent Robinson - WR - Illinois State
- productive WR, good speed, toughness

187 - C.J. Gaddis - CB/FS
- more of an athelete, some special teams potential, most likely PS

196 -Jason Selling - RB/FB - Virginia
- good short yardage runner, special teams experience

219 - Anthony Waters - ILB - Clemson
- injured, goes on IR in 07
- has chance to get spot starts in year 2 on 1-2 downs as run stuffing ILB
 
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The basic premise of the aggressive approach is I can trade and get the exact player I want.

The draft is like any other roster building exercise, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I have foolishly predicted CB, LB for the past 3-4 drafts, most of my energy has been spent studying these positions.

I think the whole thing is like "Plinko" you never know how it will shakeout.

With 3 more picks likely due to the comps I expect some wheeling and dealing, up, down, next year, etc.

If the Pats came out of day 1 with these players I think we would be pretty happy:
- Carriker (top 3-4 DE)
- Welker (proven slot WR and PR)
- Stewart Bradley - (best fit to be next Vrabel type. ILB\OLB)
 
My revised draft is

#24 Chris Houston, Cb, Ark*
#28 A. Gonzales, WR. OSU
#91 Buster Davis, LB, Fl St
#123 Zak Deossie, LB Brown
#165 Brandon Harrison, SS, Stan
#187 Jordon Palmer, QB, Utep

NOTE: IF Willis drops lower than #15 I would try to trade up using #28 & #24. Then have a mid round 2nd to take Gonzales.
 
OK, I tried to do this with the new list and minus pick #60. I came to the conclusion that the Pats WILL trade down with at least one of their first-round picks. I now completely understand the risks of having large gaps in your draft board. If you have to twiddle your thumbs all the way from 28 to 91, that #28 is fraught with trouble.

Say a Carriker slips to 24 and you can't say no. Then at 28 suppose you're looking at a Harris at LB, Gonzalez at WR, Griffin at S, Staley at OT. All are reasonable, none are slam dunks. You have no clue when runs will start at these positions, and no flexibility to maneuver if you spot a bargain or if deep position like safety starts to dry up. I have to think that the Pats will be wide open to trade-down offers.
 
OK, I tried to do this with the new list and minus pick #60. I came to the conclusion that the Pats WILL trade down with at least one of their first-round picks. I now completely understand the risks of having large gaps in your draft board. If you have to twiddle your thumbs all the way from 28 to 91, that #28 is fraught with trouble.

Say a Carriker slips to 24 and you can't say no. Then at 28 suppose you're looking at a Harris at LB, Gonzalez at WR, Griffin at S, Staley at OT. All are reasonable, none are slam dunks. You have no clue when runs will start at these positions, and no flexibility to maneuver if you spot a bargain or if deep position like safety starts to dry up. I have to think that the Pats will be wide open to trade-down offers.

Fortunately, it looks like the 2nd rounder for Welker is in Next year's draft, so it won't be an issue.
 
Fortunately, it looks like the 2nd rounder for Welker is in Next year's draft, so it won't be an issue.

Wow, good scoop. Buy now, pay later. Charge it! Charge it! Charge it!

Are we protected against fraud?
 
Wow, good scoop. Buy now, pay later. Charge it! Charge it! Charge it!

Are we protected against fraud?

Unfortunately, the site that I read that has changed it to a 2007 pick. It looks like #60 it is.
 
Fortunately, it looks like the 2nd rounder for Welker is in Next year's draft, so it won't be an issue.

Are you saying that we didn't give up # 60 this year?
 
123,165,187,196,&219

TRADES

Pats trade 24 and 91 a total of 876 on the pick value chart for pick #19


19. Leon Hall CB
28. Reggie Nelson S
100. (comp?) Buster Davis ILB
123. Quincy Black OLB
130. (comp?) Ryan Harris OT
165. Chris Henry RB
187. Antwan Barnes OLB
196. Yamon Figurs KR
 
OK, here's a new stab...


24: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
28: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
91: Michael Coe, CB, Alabama State
123: Brian Robison, DE/OLB, Texas
4th-COMP: Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown
165: Allen Barbre, OT, Missouri Southern
187: Matt Toeaina, DT, Oregon
196: Scott Stephenson, C, Iowa State
6th-COMP: Matt Gutierrez, QB, Idaho State
7th-COMP: Mark Zalewski, LB, Wisconsin
 
24: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
28: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
91: Tim Shaw, I/OLB Penn St.
123: Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown
165: DeAndre Jackson, CB Iowa St.
187: Brandon Jackson, RB Nebraska (he's going to be gone so much earlier than this it's not even funny but they have him at 196 so.........)
196: Scott Stephenson, C, Iowa State
 
Pick: RANK:
#24 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State (27th)
Speed and ability. Him and Welker will be great together int he receiving game and return game for many years to come
#28 Reggie Nelson FS Florida (28th)
He will smart immediately and have Wilson move to CB.
#60 Eric Wright CB UNLV (61st)
Nice Dime back for now and would learn from Samuel, Wilson, and Hobbs with Harrison too. He could be developed into a great player.
#91 H.B. Blades ILB Pittsburgh (92nd)
The Pats would be thrilled to get him here. He has great skill and speed. He would be the finishing piece to a greeat LB core for the Pats.
#123 Darius Walker RB Notre Dame (139)
Change of pace has the ability to be a good thrid down back and knows tthe Pats offense from Charlie Weis
#165 DeAndre Jackson CB Iowa State (183)
Another Cb who would be able to develop and become a great player. I like this kid for the reason that he has height (listed at 6 1')
#187 David Patterson DT Ohio State (204)
Wilfork is not getting younger and the Pats have filled major needs. He could develop under Wilfork.
#196 Dan Santucci OG Notre Dame (205)
More depth for this deep team. Yates and Mruckowzki were tendered, but this guy comes from a Patriots type offense in Notre Dame and I think can be effective.
#219 Chris Leak QB Florida
Why not another Gator?
 
24: RObert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
28: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
91: Tim Shaw, ILB Penn St.
123: Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown
165: John Weddling, S
187: John Talley, CB, Duke
196: Justin Warren, ILB
219: Dan Stantucci, OG
 
24: RObert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
28: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
91: Tim Shaw, ILB Penn St.
123: Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown
165: John Weddling, S
187: John Talley, CB, Duke
196: Justin Warren, ILB
219: Dan Stantucci, OG

That's pretty darned nice.
 
24, 28, 91,123,165,187,196,

24- Reggie Nelson FS, can play some corner; we can also slide Wilson to CB
28- Michael Griffin SS, strong ST'er as well as ballhawk
91- Buster Davis- meet the new London Fletcher (a BB favourite)
123- Zak DeOssie- LB'er for the future
165- Dwayne Wright- RB to eventually be a solid back up for Maroney
187- Cameron Stephenson- OG from Rutgers, someone must have blocked for that strong run game
196- Yamon Figurs- WR project; fast, immediate help to ST return game

I did not account for the comp. picks. Also, I predict a trade w/ 1 of the 1sts. There is beaucoup talent in round 2, extra picks would be beneficial.
 
The new 40 times from Nebraska's Pro-day make the OLB situation look a little more interesting. Gil Brandt's comments indicated it was a fast track, both Carriker and Moore improved their 40 times (I wonder if Bradley running slightly slower is indicative of anything?). I've compared them before, but when you look at Adam Carriker's numbers in comparison to top OLB Posluszney and top ILB Willis you have to drool, and with his new 40 times (and his fluidity in LB drills at the Combine) Moore is looking even better for a move to OLB.

Paul Posluszny (Penn State) 6-2 238
- Combine: 4.70/40, 2.73/20, 1.56/10, 22/225, 37"v, 9'8"b, 4.20ss, 6.94c

Patrick Willis (Mississippi) 6-1 242
- Combine: 4.51/40, 2.62/20, 1.53/10, 22/225, 39"v, 9'11"b, 4.46ss, 7.23c

Adam Carriker (Nebraska) 6-6 296
- Combine: 4.90/40, 2.81/20, 1.60/10, 33/225, 33 1/2"v, 9'2"b, 4.18ss, 7.06c
- Pro-day: 291 lb. ran 4.73 and 4.72 in the 40.

Jay Moore (Nebraska) 6-5 274
- Combine: 4.92/40, 2.81/20, 1.59/10, 26/225, 34"v, 9'10"b, 4.35ss, 7.19c
- Pro-day: 274 lb. ran 4.74 and 4.76 in the 40.

Stewart Bradley (Nebraska) 6-4 254
- Combine: 4.72/40, 2.71/20, 1.56/10, 28/225, 35 1/2"v, 9'4"b, 4.17ss, 7.29c
- Pro-day: 258 lb. ran 4.76 and 4.75 in the 40.
 
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