I've been reading every report out there trying to piece together what happened. Here's my two cents that seems to fit all of the actual reported facts:
- I think that the Pats submitted balls under 12.5 psi pregame for inspection. THIS is NOT a violation: a team could submit completely deflated balls and the only thing you could accuse them of is wasting the ref's time as the refs properly fill them.
- They refs are supposed to use a gauge to check the psi, but it's already been reported by an ex ball attendant on NBC News (here) that in his experience the refs rarely used the gauges and just squeezed the balls to make sure they were okay. Using this "procedure" last Sunday night, the refs incorrectly approved the (under inflated) balls and sent them back to the Pats (again not a violation or any misdoing on the Pat's part)
- Why did the Pats submit under inflated balls? Who knows, maybe the equipment guys says "Screw it. Why should I waste time and worry about the psi since the refs will make sure they meet the regs by adding or remove air anyway" (see A. Rodgers comment that the refs often alter the balls pregame). Or maybe he says the same thing that the NBC ball attendant said in the article referenced above which was "Let's get the balls exactly the way we want them, and if the refs reject one or two before the game, no big deal. But there's no harm giving them our ideal balls and hoping they make it through inspection." (again no NFL rules violation)
- Once the issue came up on field, the refs had no choice but to use the gauges to check the balls at halftime and found them to be under inflated (Of course they were! They'd been submitted that way and not corrected by the refs pregame)
I don’t believe any of the above translates to a rules violation by the Patriots as it was the refs who failed to do their job pregame.
In my mind, this scenario most logically fits all the actual facts and it answers the biggest question people are asking:
How did the Pats deflate that many balls so precisely without anyone noticing? Answer:
They didn't, the balls were already low when they got them back from the official after the pregame inspection.
It also explains the Colts accusations that the Pats balls felt lighter when they played at Lucas Oil Stadium in November. They WERE lighter....because the refs approved them pregame without measuring with a gauge!
Finally, it satisfies the "
most logical answer is usually the correct one" rule. It wasn’t a big, multi-level conspiracy, it was simple human error made by refs trying to get things done quickly and move on to the big game (why waste time with pregame ball checks that have never been considered a big deal anyway...before Sunday).
I think that the NFL knows the refs messed up pregame, but they've already "leaked" a report that the refs did the proper procedure pregame. The league has gotten so much heat about the poor quality of the refs this year that it would be a bigger scandal for them to say "
Our refs lied. They really didn't do their job pregame".
If this is true, then my guess is that Goodell is struggling to find a way that saves face for the NFL. Unfortunately the easiest way to save face and satisfy mob rule is to blame the mystery on the Pats.
It's all really a shame cause all the NFL had to say early on was "
We made a procedural mistake but the refs caught it at halftime and corrected it with no adverse effect on the outcome of the game.”
OR maybe I'm an idiot ... just as likely!
Ian Rapoport ✔ @RapSheet
